Hello everyone, and welcome back to my series of Financial Values articles! For those who are new to this series — I’m Ben Bleiweiss, and I’m the General Manager in charge of setting prices (buy and sell) here at StarCityGames.com. Each set release, on the Friday before the prerelease, I give my thoughts about values of the cards in the newest set. I let you know which I think are starting low, which are going to drop in value, and which cards are going to maintain their current level of price.
Here’s how it works: In the first section, I list the Mythic Rares, alphabetically. I give our starting price, whether I think the card will go “UP” in value, “DOWN” in value, or the value will remain “STABLE.” I then give my thoughts about that particular card! In the second section, I discuss the Rares.
Since this set was fully (visually) spoiled by Wizards of the Coast, we were able to get up the entire set (with card images) this past Wednesday. Please feel free to click on the name of any card in this article to see the full image for that card, including artwork and card text!
Before we start, let’s discuss the core set as a whole. When M10 came out, I assumed that reprinted cards would maintain value, as they had done for the past base sets. For instance, when 10th Edition (not M10, but 10th Edition) came out, all of the reprinted cards (Adarkar Wastes, Coat of Arms, Elvish Piper, Twincast, Underworld Dreams, and many more) pretty much held their value. In retrospect, this was because the base set never really sold very well, so the amounts of each of these cards entering circulation was nil, and the overall market was unaffected.
M10 changed all this — now that 50% of the cards were new, and many of them were powerful must-haves (Baneslayer Angel, new dual lands), the set sold exceedingly well. In fact, it sold so well that Wizards of the Coast ran out of product before the end of the year! Since the core set had gone yearly, and because previous core sets had sold so poorly, Wizards of the Coast went conservative with the print run of M10 — which caused it to run out, and caused prices to go up, up, up on the new cards from the set.
It also caused prices on reprints to plummet drastically. Pithing Needle, previously a solid $10 card, is now a $2-$3 fringe rare. Previous casual staples that sold for a solid $3-$4 are now going for $0.50 to $2. In short, the scale of reprinting done in M10 really hurt the value of previously printed cards, and virtually none of the reprinted cards maintained value (with a few exceptions, like the Lorwyn Planeswalkers).
So for this set, I’ve divided the rarities into New Cards and Reprints. That way, I can mainly talk about the cards that will have the biggest potential price swings (the new cards) while talking about how the values of the reprints will be affected by, well, reprinting. Also, to make this article an easier read (since I know it can run obscenely long at times), I’ve instituted a Bulk Rare section under Rares — in that section, I list all of the Rares that are currently selling for $0.50 to $1.50 that I believe will end up selling for $0.50 to $1 when all is said and done. Again — saves on the space of having to list a card and type “Bulk Rare” for each of those cards.
MYTHICS
NEW CARDS
Demon of Death’s Gate
Current Price: $6
Up, Down or Stable: Down
Thoughts: Delraich never quite worked out, and there’s no reason to think that Demon of Death’s Gate will either. Yes, Black has creatures you’d want to sacrifice (Bloodghast, Kalastria Highborn), but in the end, you’d want something with a little more return for the sacrifice (think Rotlung Reanimator/Caller of the Claw). Unless something like that comes along, I’m thinking it’s another $2-$3 random black Mythic rare (see Xanthrid Demon/Hellcarver Demon).
Frost Titan
Current Price: $4
Up, Down or Stable: Down
Thoughts: If you’re playing control-on-control, Frost Titan can lock down your opponent’s biggest (possibly only) threat — but how much is the U/W mirror match going to matter, in the new Standard? There are better options (Baneslayer Angel, various Sphinx) for Blue or White.
Gaea’s Revenge
Current Price: $10
Up, Down or Stable: Down
Thoughts: Can be chump blocked all day long — and chances are the opponent’s got chump blockers by the time this hits the table. Really needed Trample to push it over the top. I see this settling down in the $4-$5 range.
Grave Titan
Current Price: $18
Up, Down or Stable: Up
Thoughts: There are going to be two breakout mythics in this set, a la Vampire Nocturnus and Baneslayer Angel — and those two are Grave Titan and Primeval Titan. Both give you huge bodies and huge abilities, and Black doesn’t have a better finisher than this one right now. Even better, BB or GG is very splashable as an off-color, so it’s not just base-Black (or Green) decks that are going to want to use these guys. I see both the Black and the Green titan hitting the $30-$40 range once they become Standard legal — I believe both will be played about as much as Vengevine, but in a set that is going to have a LOT fewer packs cracked open by players/dealers/drafters.
Inferno Titan
Current Price: $5
Up, Down or Stable: Up
Thoughts: Underrated, for a reusable Arc Lightning effect. I think mid-range (big) Red is viable in the new metagame (see further down the article, when I talk about Destructive Force), and a six-toughness Red Creature with an effect that lets you kill other Titans is essential for that deck.
Primeval Titan
Current Price: $30
Up, Down or Stable: Up
Thoughts: The perfect intersection of Timmy, Johnny, and Spike. Getting two lands each turn is huge — don’t even think of ramp, as much as utility — getting four Tectonic Edges over two turns can spell a quick game-over for the opponent. Moreover, there are a lot of mana-hungry lands that you can fetch (Manlands, Mystifying Maze), so if you’re running a land strategy, you really never can fetch out too many lands from your deck. Plays great in a number of pre-existing decks (Ramp/Turboland/Mythics).
Sun Titan
Current Price: $10
Up, Down or Stable: Down
Thoughts: It’s the prerelease card, so there will be a ton of these out there. The ability is strong, but it pales compared to the Black and Green Titans . Wouldn’t discount it seeing any play, but the extra printing (prerelease version) will hold the value in check.
Time Reversal
Current Price: $30
Up, Down or Stable: Down
Thoughts: This has a place in combo decks that currently don’t have access to a really solid draw-7 (think High Tide in Legacy), and I can see a critical mass of U/R burn decks that want to play draw-go with mana-efficient burn spells (Staggershock, Lightning Bolt, and friends). Will be either hugely important or banned in Overextended, should that format ever become legal. Should settle in the $15 range.
REPRINTS
Ajani Goldmane: At $5 currently, should go up since tokens are playable in New Extended.
Baneslayer Angel: At $35 currently, and will rebound to $50 within two months of M11 releasing. Now’s the time to buy these, if you missed out the first time around.
Chandra Nalaar: At $4 currently, should remain stable.
Garruk Wildspeaker: At $6 currently, and should have a place in the metagame — so I expect it to hit the $8-$10 range within a couple of months.
Jace Beleren: At $5 currently, and is best used as a way to kill new Jace at this point. Probably will drop to $4 before it’s done sliding.
Liliana Vess: At $4 currently, and should remain there.
Platinum Angel: At $2 currently, and should remain there. I remember when this used to be a $10 card. This was one set too many for it to be reprinted in, given that M10 tanked the value from $10 to $3-$4. Who would have thought Platinum Angel would essentially be a “Bulk Mythic” card?
RARES
Bulk Rares – These cards will all end up in the $0.50 to $1 range, when all is said and done:
Ancient Hellkite
Angelic Arbiter
Brittle Effigy
Clone
Haunting Echoes
Hoarding Dragon
Jinxed Idol
Leyline of Vitality
Magma Phoenix
Necrotic Plague
Overwhelming Stampede
Protean Hydra
Redirect
Royal Assassin
Stormtide Leviathan
Triskelion
Vengeful Archon
Wild Evocation
Captivating Vampire
Current Price: $3
Up, Down or Stable: Stable
Thoughts: Most first-time printed Lords end up around this price, if they are Rare (see Goblin Chieftain, Merfolk Sovereign, and Cemetery Reaper for examples). Helps that it’s in a casual-friendly tribe. Might go up a touch (to $4) if Vampires make a comeback to tournament respectability.
Conundrum Sphinx
Current Price: $4
Up, Down or Stable: Down
Thoughts: Overrated, in the same way Vexing Sphinx was overrated — might end up giving your opponent more of an advantage than you get, and nightmarish to play in any mirror match. Given how much Jace is seeing play, and how much people are talking about Crystal Ball as a replacement for Sensei’s Divining Top, the potential drawback on Conundrum Sphinx is steep indeed. Probably should end up in the $2 range.
Cyclops Gladiator
Current Price: $1
Up, Down or Stable: Up
Thoughts: I think this is one of the underrated cards in the set. This is one of those abilities (I do damage to you, you do damage back to me) that has been doled out so conservatively to creatures in the past (Karplusan Yeti or Tracker, anyone) that generally people see a creature with “You hit me? I’ll hit you!” and disregard it immediately. Cyclops Gladiator is on-curve (4/4 for four), and can just outright dominate an early board. I’d pick these up, because I think they have all upside.
Dark Tutelage
Current Price: $6
Up, Down or Stable: Down
Thoughts: Phyrexian Arena was a better card, at three mana (since you could get cards like Corrupt at the cost of one life, instead of six). Dark Confidant was a $6-$8 card while Standard legal, and this is worse than Confidant (can’t beat, comes down a turn slower). I see Dark Tutelage settling in the $3-$4 range. It’ll see play, but won’t be ubiquitous.
Destructive Force
Current Price: $2
Up, Down or Stable: Up
Thoughts: This is my pick for the most underrated card in the set. This is Wildfire version 2.0, and it kills pretty much everything relevant in the format except for the Titans. There’s enough ramp to get this off reliably on turns 4-5, while still leaving you a creature (a Titan of your own, perhaps). I can see versions of this deck running as G/R, G/R/B, R/B or R/U — but my initial thoughts are that Destructive Force decks will be a part of the new Standard metagame. I’d pick these up, because I see them jumping to the $4-$5 range (where Wildfire was, when it was relevant) within a month.
Fauna Shaman
Current Price: $12
Up, Down or Stable: Up
Thoughts: The premier Rare of this set, Survival of the Fittest A) once a turn and B) on a 2/2 creature is worse than Survival of the Fittest A) multiple times a turn, and B) as an enchantment, but C) this is an Elf, and D) there’s been no Survival effect this powerful for creatures in a long, long time. There’s a ton of cards to use with this both in-graveyard (Vengevine, Bloodghast, Sun Titan targets), and in-hand (Squadron Hawk to feed Fauna Shaman). Allows for a toolbox style deck, or the ability to trade off early-drops (Lotus Cobra) late game (Sovereigns of Lost Alara/Titans). This is the Noble Hierarch/Knight of the Reliquary/Maelstrom Pulse of M11. I can see this peaking around $20 before it starts dropping again.
Knight Exemplar
Current Price: $7.50
Up, Down or Stable: Down
Thoughts: Casual fodder, because there just aren’t enough Knights to make this work. What makes this double the price of other lords (see Captivating Vampire)? Nothing — so I believe this will quickly drop to the $3-$4 range shortly after release. Trade these away at the prerelease.
Leyline of Anticipation
Current Price: $8
Up, Down or Stable: Down
Thoughts: Much ballyhooed hype around this Leyline (which is Vedalken Orrery, a popular casual card), but fact is that if you don’t have it in your opening hand, it’s really bad (which isn’t necessarily the case with the Black, Red and White Leylines). Legacy and Vintage players are really excited about this card, but I don’t see the hype holding up — I think this will end up more-than-halving in price to the $3-$4 range.
Leyline of Punishment
Current Price: $2
Up, Down or Stable: Up
Thoughts: Should bump to $3, which is where Everlasting Torment sat the entire time it was Standard legal.
Leyline of Sanctity
Current Price: $5
Up, Down or Stable: Down
Thoughts: Ivory Mask was a $2-$3 sideboard option. Leyline of Sanctity is fantastic in Vintage, which means the foil version of this Leyline will be a $15-$25 card (just like Leyline of the Void was, the first time around). This is better in every way than Ivory Mask (Troll Shroud, and you can play it for free!), but it’s still a sideboard card in most formats — I see this dropping to the $3 range, but with staying power. The foil version is a good investment.
Mass Polymorph
Current Price: $2
Up, Down or Stable: Stable
Thoughts: Has up and down sides to Polymorph (doesn’t leave you as open to Edict effects versus costing six mana to cast), but long story short — if Polymorph was a $2-$3 card, then I can’t see Mass Polymorph getting much higher.
Mitotic Slime
Current Price: $3
Up, Down or Stable: Down
Thoughts: Interesting for casual play, but I don’t see this having a Constructed impact. I expect this to drop to the $1-$1.50 range quickly (it’s a Scute Mob/Spawnwrithe type cards).
Mystifying Maze
Current Price: $4
Up, Down or Stable: Down
Thoughts: Four mana is a lot to ask, and between Tectonic Edge and Goblin Ruinblaster, I don’t expect this land to live late game against the decks you want it to live against. Many have compared it to Kor Haven (but worse), and I think it’ll end up being a $1.50-$2 card in the end.
Obstinate Baloth
Current Price: $8
Up, Down or Stable: Stable
Thoughts: The Great Sable Stag of this set (made to hose the deck of the day — in this case Blightning/Jund, as opposed to Faeries). Very playable as a 4/4 for four with an upside, anyhow. Should stay in the $8 range, just like Great Sable Stag did.
Phylactery Lich
Current Price: $6
Up, Down or Stable: Down
Thoughts: I know that this is a plant for Scars of Mirrodin, but BBB plus an artifact seems pretty weak when Borderposts (which don’t really accelerate you into three mana) are the only viable colored option to help you with this guy — plus if the artifact dies, you get two-for-oned. Could be solid, but $2-$3 solid, not $5-$6 solid. Foils will be valuable for people who want to cheat him out on turn 1 on the back of artifact mana and Dark Ritual/Cabal Therapy in Legacy/Vintage.
Reverberate
Current Price: $3
Up, Down or Stable: Stable
Thoughts: Fork/Twincast. This is where Twincast would have been, if it hadn’t been reprinted in both 10th and M10.
Serra Ascendant
Current Price: $3
Up, Down or Stable: Down
Thoughts: A great EDH card, and it has the Serra name association, but Angels and Dragons don’t have the massive casual appeal that they once did. Once upon a time, any Angel/Dragon (no matter how bad) would start in the $2-$3 range. Nowadays, if it’s a bad card, it’s a $0.50-$1 bulk rare out of the gates. I expect this to be in the $1.50-$2 range, and stay there.
Steel Overseer
Current Price: $6
Up, Down or Stable: Down
Thoughts: Will tick down to $4ish, but is another plant for Scars of Mirrodin. This has the potential to be really good come Scars, so I would pick up a playset once it drops a little bit (pre-Scar), because it could go higher than the current $6 if modular comes back, or if there are any quick artifact creatures in that block that fit an artifact-aggro curve.
Side note: It has been spoiled that From the Vault: Relics will have a preview card from Scars of Mirrodin called Sword of Body and Mind (which sounds like Sword of Fire and Ice / Sword of Light and Shadow to me, except for Green and Blue). I would expect a full cycle of enemy-colored swords in new Mirrodin, one per set (Sword of Order and Chaos and Sword of Life and Death are my best guesses, for the White/Red and Green/Black swords). Point being, there’s at least one piece of equipment that’s going to be really, really good — so pick up your Stoneforge Mystics now, won’t you? I really, really have the feeling that by the time Scars comes out, the Mystic will be what Ranger of Eos and Knight of the Reliquary ended up being – $4-$5 cards that exploded to the $10-$15 range once they had enough support cards to be exploited.
Speaking of which…
Sword of Vengeance
Current Price: $4
Up, Down or Stable: Up
Thoughts: See Stoneforge Mystic. This is a fine replacement for Loxodon Warhammer, which was a $4-$5 staple while Standard legal, despite having been printed three times (Mirrodin/9th/10th), once as an Uncommon. It also has the Akroma factor to help make it appealing to the casual player.
Temple Bell
Current Price: $3
Up, Down or Stable: Stable
Thoughts: Underrated right now — it’s an improved Howling Mine. Yes, it costs one more mana, but the affect is less asymmetrical (your opponent draws during their end step, and you can effectively see three cards (their end step/your regular draw/your first main phase), at the same time your opponent sees only one (just their first draw on the turn you activate during their end step).
REPRINTS
Birds of Paradise: Should rise in value once Scars comes out, because it’ll be the best multi-color producing one-drop in Standard once Noble Hierarch rotates. Pick them up now, because they should rise back to (at least) the $5 mark once they are viable again.
Day of Judgment: It saddens me that Wrath of God (fixed) is a $5 rare, but here we are. There’s no reason to think this should go back up in value, because it’s already had a whole year to do so.
Dragonskull Summit/Drowned Catacomb/Glacial Fortress/Rootbound Crag/Sunpetal Grove: All of the M10 lands should be in the $4-$5 range now, which is where Painlands ended up the first couple of times they were reprinted. Future printings may drop these to the $2-$4 range, but I don’t think we’re there yet.
Elvish Archdruid: Took a slight dip, but there are some awesome utility Elves running around Standard right now (Fauna Shaman, Sylvan Ranger), so an Elf deck might be something that will make a big resurgence — especially in New Extended.
Goblin Chieftain: I keep waiting for the day that this guy will be good, but it hasn’t happened yet. I expect this to dip to the $1.50-$2 range, but I’d pick up a playset once they do — because once Goblins becomes a playable tribe (as a tribe) again, this will only go up in value.
Honor of the Pure: At $2, and will hold there (see Bad Moon).
Leyline of the Void: $4 and should stick there. It was a $3-$6 card over the two years it was in Standard the first time around, and the Leyline ability is still relevant in Standard (Bloodghast, Fauna Shaman, Vengevine), Extended (Demigod of Revenge, self-mill strategies), and older formats (where Leyline of the Void is a staple sideboard card).
Merfolk Sovereign: At $2, and should mirror Goblin Chieftain in value.
Nantuko Shade: I think this’ll take a slight dip to $4-$5, because there’s no huge-mana booster at the end-of-game to take advantage of the shade ability (see Cabal Coffers/Lake of the Dead/Dark Ritual). Still powerful and popular, just not as good as it was the first time around/in older formats.
Silence: Pains me to say, but probably will end up at a $1 bulk rare, as it didn’t see play the first time around, and this ability isn’t super-popular with casual players.
Traumatize: Reprinted one too many times, and will probably settle at $1. Used to be a solid $4 casual favorite. Take note Wizards: Please don’t bring this back in M12!
I hope everyone has fun at their respective prereleases — the Richmond one will feature both Evan Erwin and Patrick Chapin gunslinging all day Saturday! As always, all thoughts/comments are appreciated in the forums, so feel free to chime in with your thoughts!
Ben Bleiweiss
General Manager, StarCityGames.com