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The End Of A Standard

Worlds 2007 finalist Patrick Chapin examines the Standard metagame as the end of the season draws near. See what you should play this weekend in Hagerstown or Milwaukee.

The SCG Invitational Atlanta and the corresponding SCG Open this weekend mark the beginning of the end of the Standard season as we enter the final weeks of the format. It’s looking more and more like we won’t reach a true equilibrium point before the end of the season, though it does look like we have a clear “best” deck. What’s interesting about this “best” deck is how popular it was at the beginning of the season.

You know how many people played G/B/W Reanimator at Pro Tour Gatecrash?

One.

By a week later, at Grand Prix Quebec City, the number of G/B/W Reanimator decks (Day 2) had increased to…

Two.

Even if the format fades away into the darkness with G/B/W Reanimator remembered as the best deck, it certainly wasn’t obvious throughout the season. With just weeks left before Dragon’s Maze drops, this is the state of Standard:

Standard Metagame: April 7th, 2013

Table

*Misc = Naya Humans, Zombies, Prime Speaker Bant, Human Reanimator, Turbo Fog, G/W, Four-Color Control, Delver

As always, this is the winner’s circle metagame weighted by finish and by recency. While the Invitational’s Top 8 was Legacy, the Swiss did include a Standard portion, and this data includes all of the lists that went X-1 or better in Standard.

While Reanimator is squarely atop of the format, the rest of the format has been fluctuating wildly. Last week in Orlando, we saw Reanimator slightly dip (its lowest point of the past month), while Blitz and Wolf Run Bant surged out of nowhere. U/W/R Flash completely fell off, while the Aristocrats and Mono-Red Aggro experienced a renaissance of sorts. This week, Reanimator has reasserted itself as the deck to beat, with Jund making big gains and Flash returning.

Remember Naya Humans?

Zombies?

Human Reanimator?

Prime Speaker Bant?

Paul Rietzl did Top 8 the WMCQ in Santa Clara this past weekend with Prime Speaker Bant, but the deck does not seem to have a consistent following.

Say what you will about the format, but it certainly appears to be at least moderately well balanced, with many viable strategies of very different tastes and textures.

The next Magic World Cup Qualifier is coming up in DC in two weeks, but I have to say that it just isn’t the same as saying the National Championships are coming up. If National Championships aren’t really appropriate for every country, I completely understand. However, there is no question they are appropriate for the United States, and every single year we don’t have them there is a giant gaping hole in the game.

You know who was the 2012 Magic World Champion?

No one.

What a waste.

What an absolute waste.

Fortunately, there will be a 2013 Magic World Champion, but like in 2012, there will not be a US National Championship. There will be a US National champion, to be sure, but they will have the title appointed to them based on season-long accomplishments rather than winning a championship. They will be surrounded by three Magic World Cup Qualifier winners rather than the Top 3 of a true National Championship.

What a waste.

As should be clear from above, Reanimator is unquestionably the deck to beat in Standard. Korey McDuffie mirror match win this weekend in Atlanta over Elliott Wolchesky marks the third SCG Open out of the last four where it has taken the title. Not only is Reanimator getting the wins, it has put 16(!) people into the Top 16 during that period, more than any two other archetypes combined.



If you’ve been following the format, there aren’t really any surprises in these lists, but it is a testament to the strategy’s resilience that despite how well known Reanimator’s strength is people have not succeeded in hating it out.

This is largely because these Reanimator decks are only better that. At their core, they are really a bunch of efficient creatures with some card advantage and a little removal. They do not actually rely on the graveyard, instead using it as a resource for added card advantage. Even if you cast Rest in Peace, Mulch and Lingering Souls may still provide card advantage.

Now, obviously I’m the type, but when I see a deck like this dominating, I can’t help but envision a well-tuned control deck being able to cast a few sweepers fueled by Sphinx’s Revelations. If you can just avoid getting Craterhoofed, there really aren’t that many big threats. Blind Obedience is one option, but it is also vulnerable to Abrupt Decay. At what point do Fog variants start looking appealing?

Speaking of…


No stranger to the exotic brew, Travis Woo Turbo Fog deck is really just the latest in a long line of Door to Nothingness decks he has been working on. You have to respect a man that makes room for the full playsets of both Sphinx’s Revelation and Urban Evolution, not to mention Increasing Ambitions (a powerful card drawer in its own right) and Snapcaster Mages.

One of the most appealing elements of Travis’s strategy is the combo element of it. With so little combo in the format (Reanimator being more of a midrange deck), an awful lot of people don’t really have any interaction for opponents that operate outside of creatures or planeswalkers. Against some number of opponents, you can just hang out, drop a Door, and walk away with the match slip before they knew what hit them.

Of course, not all of the format is as exciting and unique. Numerous R&D members have explicitly praised Jund (circa Bloodbraid Elf days) as one of the best “best decks” to exist. This has surely informed card design, and once again we see midrange Jund as a top strategy. In preparing for the upcoming SCG Opens in Milwaukee and Richmond or the World Magic Cup Qualifier in DC, Reanimator may be enemy number one, but Jund is definitely number two. Here is the list I would test against:


Pat Cox, no stranger to Jund, piloted this relatively stock Jund midrange list to a third place finish at the SCG Open in Atlanta this past weekend. All the usual suspects are present in the creature portion of his list, with the usual diverse selection of removal spells. The most unique element of his list is surely the two Ground Seals, a slant to gain some edge on Reanimator.

The only other archetype to put up double-digit numbers is Esper Control, the format’s control deck of choice. This past weekend’s top placing Esper Control deck was the following by Jake Humphries:


While Forbidden Alchemy over a fourth Sphinx’s Revelation is pretty unforgivable in my humble opinion, the rest of this list is totally reasonable, with numbers tuned for the Reanimator metagame. Safe Passage in the sideboard to Fog Craterhoof Behemoth!? Now we’re talking!

While this list is more vulnerable than most to planeswalkers, that is a lower percentage of the field than it has been. Personally, I’d want a little more ammo against Jund for next week, a matchup that is far from trivial. That said, when Jund is good in this format, that isn’t necessarily the week you want to play Esper.

If Thragtusk and Sphinx’s Revelation are two of the format’s pillars, the third is surely Burning-Tree Emissary. While Burning-Tree Emissary has found numerous homes, two of them have stood the test of time. First, G/R Aggro:


It’s a little hard for me to stomach how reliant on Gyre Sage and Arbor Elf for mana this list is, but there are more than a few possible opponents with low removal counts so it’s not as risky as it could be.

Domri Rade has continued to prove his worth, being the primary reason to play a slow(er) G/R deck instead of the other popular Burning-Tree Emissary strategy, Blitz:


The lone non-Reanimator Open-winning list from the past month, Aaron Leblanc’s Naya Blitz deck is fast enough that even Zvi Mowshowitz could be interested (though I imagine Zvi would ask the question of whether Experiment One is actually better than Wolfbitten Captive in this list, which I think is far from clear).

The Boros Reckoners in the sideboard are just enough to remind us that he used to run the format. Oh how things change! It’s also nice to see straight-up Tormod’s Crypt. Sometimes you don’t need to get too fancy.

Another amusing card in Aaron’s sideboard is Gruul Charm. Now, it’s not funny that he uses this card, as it is actually a very popular choice that has had tons of success. What’s funny is that after the smoke has cleared, here’s a rough breakdown of the Return to Ravnica and Gatecrash Charms ranked in terms of success:

1. Azorius Charm
2. Boros Charm
3. Selesnya Charm
4. Izzet Charm
5. Gruul Charm
6. Orzhov Charm
7. Simic Charm
8. Rakdos Charm
9. Golgari Charm
10. Dimir Charm

The much-maligned Gruul Charm has actually ended up in the top half, and there has been some pretty tough competition since all ten have seen their fair share of top-level tournament play.

It could just be coincidence, but the color breakdown of the Charms’ success is really intriguing. The top three are white Charms without black. The bottom three are black without white. The black/white Charm is right in the middle. What’s up with that? Do black decks just not lend themselves as well to Charms, or is it just variance and the white charm designed came out slightly ahead?

Speaking of Boros Reckoner, remember when U/W/R decks used to be about him? Nowadays, Aurelia the Warleader has become the standard fourth creature to go along with Snapcaster, Augur, and Restoration Angel.


As always, this strategy in built on a bunch of card draw and a diverse mix of reactive cards. While the card draw doesn’t fluctuate a lot, it is at a local high, with Sphinx’s Revelation, Think Twice, Augur, Snapcaster, and Angel adding up to make for a lot of draw (not to mention cycling Azorius Charm).

Not using Boros Charm makes total sense without Boros Reckoner for the combo (add Azorius Charm to those two and you can gain any amount of life you want). What’s more instructive to us is the lack of Izzet Charms. Now, Izzet Charm has had a lot of success in a variety of decks, but it has fallen out of favor in most of these U/W/R Standard decks and examining why is revealing.

All three of Izzet Charm’s modes are appealing in a vacuum, which is why it was the most hyped of the RTR five. It has struggled to justify itself in this deck in this format because none of the options are actually contextually valuable.

To begin with, very few creatures that cost two or more mana actually die to Izzet Charm without gaining value. Burning-Tree Emissary, Boros Elite, and Thalia are all more mana efficient. Flinthoof Boar, Vampire Nighthawk, Centaur Healer, and Strangleroot Geist are too tough to kill. Huntmaster of the Fells, Snapcaster Mage, and Borderland Ranger have already gained value.

That leaves what, Mayor of Avabruck, if you’re lucky?

What about the Spell Pierce mode? This is currently the best of Izzet Charm’s abilities, as it can snag an end step Revelation or Grisly Salvage, not to mention occasionally hitting one of Jund’s Walkers. Still, the nature of the format is for people to flood out, making paying for Izzet Charm a very normal thing to be able to do.

Finally, Careful Study…a potentially great ability, but one that is only really powerful if you are abusing it. If you are just getting half a Faithless Looting, you are generally pitching valuable lands that could help cast Sphinx’s Revelation later.

A fun maindeck twist in Boozer’s list is the use of Electrickery. One of the most popular RTR Block Constructed cards at the moment, Electrickery is an ideal way to combat mana elves that also combats Lingering Souls extremely well. Both it and Izzet Staticaster are nice ways to be able to make up some of the virtual cards “drawn” by Reanimator.

Boozer’s sideboard has a few new tricks as well. Assemble the Legion provides a potent change-up, which I particularly like against control, but could see bringing in against any slow matchup. Clone isn’t really new, but it’s always nice to see making a comeback. It’s at its best against Jund, where it copies Thragtusk or kills Olivia. It also provides added defense against Geist of Saint Traft (a card that I personally am looking forward to rotating and taking with it the hexproof fad that seemed to dominate card design for a little while).

These five decks should make up our testing gauntlet this week:

1. Reanimator
2. Jund
3. Esper
4. Blitz
5. Flash

While the format is dynamic and unstable, all five of these decks are going to be players. Before bouncing, however, I would like to take a quick look at two other lists.


First, we see a new take on G/W midrange. This list has a lot of the same cards that are in Reanimator, Bant, and Naya (aka, the G/W ones), but instead of adding black, blue, or red, it adds a Blinking theme to abuse comes into play abilities.

The other fun one to take a look at is Brad Nelson update to The Aristocrats:


This version eschews the Champion of the Parish nut draws for a midrangey combo vibe. Blasphemous Act + Boros Reckoner is a pretty big game and can be pretty fast and cheap thanks to all the tokens. Blood Artist provides a backup way to gain an advantage if you can’t keep Boros Reckoner on the table (or don’t draw one).

Alright, I’m out for today. This Standard format has been pretty diverse and has brought with it a metagame that changes from week to week, but I know I am ready for a new set. I seriously wonder if there’s any way that Magic could just do five sets a year (every 2.5 months) and have each set be 80% as big (or whatever is needed to accommodate such a release cadence). Is there anything more fun in Constructed than the beginning of a new format?

See you next week!

Patrick Chapin
“The Innovator”