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Standard: March Update!

Patrick Chapin takes a look at how the Standard metagame has evolved since Pro Tour Dark Ascension. Read what decks you should be testing against and considering to play at StarCityGames.com Open: Dallas/Fort Worth.

With Grand Prix Lille and StarCityGames.com Open: Tampa this past weekend and Grand Prix Baltimore and StarCityGames.com Memphis the weekend before, there has been no shortage of major Standard events in recent weeks. Let’s take a look at the format as it now stands (as it has evolved quite a bit since its debut in Honolulu).

Once we get a feel for the make-up of the format at the moment, we can examine the most recent successful builds and see what we can learn from them. Additionally, we should have our eyes peeled for trends we might be able to take advantage of or learn from. Additionally, we should be mindful of what technology we can use to gain some percentage on each of these strategies.

To begin with, I calculated a prediction for the expected metagame based on combining the data from each of the above four events. Results were weighted by finish, with the usual 6 for first, 5 for second, 4 for third/fourth, 3 for fifth through eighth, and 2 for ninth through sixteenth (only available in StarCityGames.com Opens). StarCityGames.com Open: Memphis was held before either of the GP results, so I have counted it at only half value. Additionally, each undefeated day 1 deck in Baltimore received 2 points, and every single deck that made day 2 received half a point per pilot. This is a lot of data, but based on my experience this balance of weight will result in the best prediction I can muster for the winner’s circle metagame next week. Here are those results:

Talk about diversity!

As a note, B/U Zombies also includes Mono-Black Zombies, and Delver/Spirits/Illusions is obviously three sub-archetypes rolled into one. This means the format is actually even more diverse than the chart shows, to say nothing of the countless variations of decks like Wolf Run, Control, and G/W.

This breakdown reveals a fairly clear testing gauntlet, one that has changed quite a bit over the past few weeks. This gauntlet can also be used to help us tune whatever strategy we are considering playing. For instance, Doom Blade has been the industry standard over Go for the Throat for quite some time. Doom Blade kills Inkmoth Nexus and nearly anything in a Tempered Steel deck. However, times have changed. Those two archetypes make up less than 10% of the field. Nowadays, we have to deal with B/U and Mono-Black Zombies, U/B Control with Grave Titans (and Bloodline Keepers and Germ tokens), and Lich decks. Decks where Go for the Throat is significantly better than Doom Blade are now 30% of the field! As if that wasn’t enough, the current decks where Go for the Throat is better often has zero targets for Doom Blade. The same is not true the other way. Wolf Run decks have plenty of Titans to Go for the Throat (including even Grave Titan, once in a while), and Nexus can be dealt with by Tragic Slip. Tempered Steel decks even have Glint Hawk and sometimes Hero of Bladehold!

The point is, Go for the Throat and Doom Blade are similar enough that many people are just using Doom Blades out of momentum, but Go for the Throat is actually significantly better in the current meta. Fittingly enough, David Sharfman used Go for the Throat to take the title in Tampa this past weekend. If I were to play Standard this weekend, I would play this exact 75 (or would change only a card or two).


As sweet as Consecrated Sphinx is, Grave Titan is crucial to surviving in the B/U Zombie world. With so much U/B Control in the meta, Blue Sun’s Zenith makes for a better kill card than a third Grave Titan. A third Drownyard maindeck helps provide an additional victory condition, but is mainly just a pre-sideboard against the mirror (a matchup that completely revolves around getting it and immediately using it every turn on your opponent).

The only other difference (besides Go for the Throat over Doom Blade) between Sharfman’s list and the list Luis Scott-Vargas had me play two weeks ago is the use of a third Black Sun’s Zenith instead of a third Dissipate. Replacing Grave Titan with Blue Sun’s Zenith gave him one more anti-spell card and one less way to stabilize against aggro. To compensate, Sharfman cut a slow anti-spell card and replaced it with a sweeper. He even has a third maindeck Drownyard to get extra percentage in matchups where Dissipate is good.

As for the sideboard, Sharfman has room for a third Ghost Quarter due to an extra Drownyard main, helping against the mirror and Wolf Run. I like the split between Surgical Extraction and Nihil Spellbomb, which is not always the case. Normally, Spellbomb clearing their yard makes Surgical have less good targets. However, we actually want so much graveyard hate we’re going to run out of cards if it’s all one-for-zero (like Surgical). We do want some Surgicals, however, to combat Snapcaster Mages and fight the mirror.

I love the use of Batterskull, Wurmcoil Engine, Bloodline Keeper, and Phantasmal Image, giving Sharfman access to a ton of victory conditions as well as alternative angles of attack. Additionally, he even has room for more permission (more than making up for the missing Dissipate maindeck). Props to Sharfman. This was just a flawlessly built deck.

Go for the Throat is increasingly important for keeping Grave Titan under control, but the reason both Go for the Throat and Grave Titan have become so vital is this monster, right here:


B/U Zombies (as well as Mono-Black Zombies) was underestimated by many out of the gate, but has very quickly climbed to being the most popular deck in the format. Where are those Humans now!?

One of the keys is staying as close to Mono-Black as possible and not getting hung up on a bunch of counterspells. Many Human decks have not wanted Island, many Delver decks have not wanted Plains, and this deck is even more extreme in that direction because of Obliterator, Geth’s Verdict, and how little need of colorless mana it really has. You could play one Island if you wanted, but you’re really taking chances with Obliterator and it probably isn’t worth it.

Once again, we see Go for the Throat over Doom Blade, albeit in the sideboard. I actually wouldn’t mind a Go for the Throat main over a Mortarpod (or possibly a Verdict). I also like the use of Sever the Bloodline, helping combat tokens, Strangleroot Geist, Sun Titan/Phantasmal Image, and Wurmcoil Engine (not to mention making Unburial Rites a little worse).

Without question, two of the decks in every gauntlet should both be black/blue! If you can’t compete with these guys, you aren’t going to be able to take the trophy. This is particularly amusing when we remember that Pro Tour Dark Ascension was just a few weeks ago, with its Top 8 dominated by Kessig Wolf Run and Delver of Secrets. Let’s take a look at the format as it was in Hawaii versus today.

Standard Metagame: Hawaii vs. Today

Decks that Dropped in Popularity

Humans
Delver
Wolf Run
Misc. Control
Tempered Steel
W/b Tokens
Mono-Green
Pod

Decks that Increased in Popularity

G/R Aggro
U/B Control
B/u Zombies
Reanimator/Lich
Misc. Ramp

That says so much! First of all, almost every deck that dropped in popularity was one of the existing archetypes. Almost every deck that increased in popularity was a new archetype made possible by Dark Ascension. Pro Tour Dark Ascension was a tournament heavily influenced by existing technology, as the field clearly did not yet understand how to utilize the new set.

For Pro Tour Dark Ascension, the primary testing gauntlet was almost entirely that list of decks that have since dropped in popularity. Today’s ideal gauntlet is actually just the first four decks that increased in popularity, plus Delver. How much has the format evolved that Wolf Run and Humans don’t even crack the top five, and neither do Tempered Steel or Mono-Green despite coming out the gates blazing the week before the Pro Tour! As we discussed in the Dark Ascension set review, rarely has a Magic set ever so perfectly hit the mark in terms of changing the metagame without just printing broken cards.

Continuing our way through the gauntlet, we have old-faithful: Delver decks. Spirits has dropped off in popularity now that Corrosive Gale is everywhere. Even with most opponents only playing a couple, it’s just so brutal that no one wants to face it. Illusion decks still show up from time to time, but the hexproof + equipment plan has thus far proven more reliable for tournament play. The list I would test against is Grand Prix champion Matt Costa’s:


Not a lot of sugar, not a lot of spice, just business. I’m still not sold on Runechanter’s Pike, but Thought Scour does help it tremendously and Humans has dropped off a ton, making pro-white less vital. Jace, Memory Adept and Batterskull help punish control decks that want to take out their counterspells against you, not to mention helping you play a passable "U/W Control" game at times. Everyone knows Delver is a deck to beat and tests against it, but it’s very consistent, full of great cards, and is quite durable.

More surprising of an addition to the gauntlet is G/R Aggro and specifically Jackie Lee build. After Jackie made Top 8 of GP Baltimore a week and a half ago, G/R Aggro went on to become the biggest gainer of the past weekend, with three players making Top 8 of GP Lille with her list (with two copying the list almost exactly and the other making a couple changes she suggested).


This approach to G/R Aggro basically just wants to slam as many Strangleroot Geists as possible into play in the early game (with Green Sun to find more and Metamorph to copy them), followed by a Huntmaster/Hellrider midgame. Finally, Sword of War and Peace and Kessig Wolf Run provide the finishing blow. A list after Brian Kibler heart, perhaps the most surprising twist is the exclusion of Primeval Titan even as a bullet. Obviously this is a list that is much faster and lower to the ground, but with the Wolf Runs and Nexus already in the deck, not to mention four Green Sun’s Zeniths, I can’t help but wonder if the format might go in a direction where a single Titan (perhaps in the board) opens up a useful enough dimension against opponents with a lot of removal. At the moment, it appears the sideboarded Garruks are filling that role.

G/R Aggro’s success is at least partially due to its ability to prey on U/B Control and Delver. It isn’t that exciting against Humans (it has a ton of trouble with Hero of Bladehold) or Wolf Run (Primeval Titan just goes over the top of it), but both of those decks have fallen out of favor. It does struggle with Reanimator, though, since G/R’s real weakness is that it’s poorly equipped to combat strategies that go "bigger" than it.

Right now, G/R Aggro is a clear fourth deck for the gauntlet, but the fifth deck is not quite as clear. Humans and Wolf Run are both reasonable options, but given the recent surge in popularity, how different of an angle it hits from, and its total popularity, Reanimator is probably the fifth list I would recommend testing against this week.


This is an update to the "Frites" style of Reanimator popularized by Raph Levy and the other Frenchies in Honolulu. French Rites is a bit unorthodox in approach, but does lots of unfair things by abusing the graveyard. In this strategy, Faithless Looting becomes card advantage instead of card disadvantage, since cards in the graveyard are often better than in your hand. It also combos well with Mulch, not to mention how many free wins you’ll get from Unburial Rites + fatty against creature decks. Mulch is also very exciting because every land goes into your hand, almost every spell has flashback, and you want creatures in your graveyard to reanimate anyway, making it often a three-or-four for one!

This strategy is absolutely awesome, except for one glaring weakness. It’s a graveyard deck and extremely vulnerable to the hate. Nihil Spellbomb and Surgical Extraction combined with counterspells, removal, and card draw makes the U/B matchup nearly unwinnable. Additionally, anyone else that makes room for some graveyard hate can gain major percentage. Still, the style is popular and very effective against creature decks, so I highly recommend testing against it (if you’re playing a creature deck) to get a feel for if you want to play any Cages, Extractions, Spellbombs, Purify the Graves, or anything else along those lines.

Humans and Wolf Run have dropped in popularity but are still important to keep in mind. Here are current lists of each to consider when selecting your sideboard:



As you can see, Thalia, Guardian of Thraben is in full effect, and Angelic Destiny over Sword of War and Peace is important to keep in mind. The Sword’s biggest strength was the mirror, but now that the format has changed so much Destiny provides more free wins. Also of note, Mana Leak is more commonly sideboarded than maindecked these days.

As for Wolf Run, Karn is a new addition, and Huntmaster continues to be maxed out on across the board. I wouldn’t want to play Wolf Run in this format due to its weakness against U/B, but it does trump G/R and is at least reasonable against most decks. Humans, on the other hand, is not at all where you want to be (if you ask me).

Finally, for reference, here are current lists for the other semi-popular decks in the format. Getting a variety of testing experience against decks you haven’t faced yet is valuable, but even if you don’t have time to test against them all, reviewing these lists when tuning your list can be invaluable.


Of course, I would cut the Doom Blade for Go for the Throat moving forward. B/W Tokens is a strange case, where there are a ton of great reasons to play it, so much so, that it got unnaturally hated out from the get-go. Additionally, Curse of Death’s Hold and Ratchet Bomb are such key cards in the format that it’s a little bit of a hostile world for the archetype. It’s going to be very interesting to see how this strategy evolves with new sets.


Built to punish control decks, Mono-Green is sadly mostly just a bad G/R Aggro (if you ask me). It’s more consistent and even more hateful towards control, but it has an even bigger weakness to people going over the top of it.


Not a lot has changed here, but it’s interesting to note how much Tempered Steel appreciates the move towards Go for the Throat. The archetype is quite strong against U/B Control and is definitely decent against Delver and Zombies, but struggles with decks with Ancient Grudge (shocking), Daybreak Ranger, Huntmaster of the Fells, or Slagstorm.


Finally, we see a good example of the exotic ramp decks that are popping up. More and more we’re seeing decks that just use three colors of acceleration and bombs (with light interactive elements). These decks look semi-random, but are full of quality cards and actually do profit from opponents not knowing what to play around. The use of such powerful cards (Titans, Days, etc.) let them go bigger than most creature decks, while control decks are set up wrong against the unusual mix of threats (so many planeswalkers, etc.). The biggest weakness to such a deck is that it just doesn’t have nearly the same synergy as Forbidden Alchemy decks, decks that Phantasmal Image their Diregraf Captain, Primeval Titan getting Kessig Wolf Run and Inkmoth Nexus, Sword of War and Peace on a hexproof creature, Phyrexian Metamorph copying the Strangleroot Geist we just Green Sun’s for, and so on.

Without question, Standard is alive and well with a very dynamic metagame that is changing week to week. With three popular aggro decks, two combo decks, a control deck, and an aggro-control deck, not to mention plenty of fringe decks, any strategy we choose has to be ready for a wide selection of decks. I recommend playing something you’re proficient with, but this is also not the worst time to gain some experience with one of the major archetypes to give you more tools and techniques for the future. All the decks have a lot of play to them, for the most part, so playing your deck technically tight and learning how to play against the other decks should be the focus.

Now, what to play in Legacy? If only there was a week dedicated to getting us up to speed on the format…

Patrick Chapin
"The Innovator"