Today I’ve been tasked with discussing the prospective metagame you will see in the new Standard format, and particularly what you can expect to see come tomorrow in Honolulu. While I plan to do just that without revealing any secret tech I am verboten from discussing, I’ve also been fiddling around with a couple different beatdown decks for Guildpact Standard, with an eye toward revisiting some past favorites with new flavors of burn and bash. Both of these topics could take up entire articles by themselves, and (as usual) I’m crunched for time, so it’s probably best just get this started and see where we end up before I have to finish packing for Hawaii.
The Guildpact Effect
Contrary to the opinion of some pundits who dissed the set in their reviews, Guildpact will have a major effect on the new Standard format. Many of the cards themselves might seem underwhelming at first, but they have excellent synergy with certain existing strategies, and the impact of three more dual lands worth of color combinations cannot be underestimated. In fact, the watchword for the rest of Ravnica Block’s Standard tenure will probably be diversity, just like it was at States, and at Worlds, and… well, you get the picture. I’m under the impression that this will hold true in Hawaii as well, with one major exception.
Prediction #1: Wildfire strategies could make up as much as 25% of the field.
When Flores and I were bickering about the metagame earlier this week, I told him Wildfire could be as many as one in three… but upon further reflection, that’s clearly wrong – there are just too many good/interesting decks out there for Wildfire to be that prevalent. However, I’ll stand by the prediction that Wildfire will be present in 20-25% of the overall field in Hawaii, though the decks that will feature it will come in a Skittles bag of colors. (If you’ve never sampled Magic cards before, White tastes kinda lemony…) The fact that Wildfire will be very popular places some interesting constraints on any aggro decks out there looking to compete, but we’ll discuss those a bit later.
Prediction #2: The next most popular strategies will be Blue Control (in U/R and U/B forms) and Zoo.
Blue Control and Pro Tours go hand in hand – good Magic players love a control deck sporting counterspells almost more than they love a free, all-you-can-eat buffet. Hawaii will feature plenty of both. The real question is whether these decks will be playing Red, Black, or the Urzatron in addition to the Islandy goodness. I think you’ll see more Red and Tron (often in combination) than the older Black version, and almost everyone will be smart enough to pack Boseiju in the sideboard for mirror matches.
As for Zoo, it’s the new new thing, and the buzz on this deck runs from the Friday Night Magic level all the way up to the Pro Tour. Depending on which version you are playing, the manabase can go from twenty-two Mountains to four colors and a meellion dollars, but they are all aggro, and all teched out to tackle different things. I’ll be discussing three different test editions of “Zoo” in just a bit, all of which stand a decent chance of seeing some play (in better-tuned forms) this weekend.
Prediction #3: Black/White will be more popular than you expect, but less popular than Flores thinks.
I knew there were people out there posting solid results with Orzhov-colored strategies in their testing, but when Flores told me he thought it would see the most play of any archetype this weekend, I was flabbergasted. First of all, most players hate mid-range board control strategies. They practically have to be overpowered just to get noticed, and are notoriously fickle when it comes to forgiving mistakes. I’m positive there will be more Zoo decks than Black/White, and I don’t think Black/White will even be in the Top 3 in terms of archetype percentage of decks on Day 1. That said, there’s a good chance you’ll see a couple of players make it deep into Day 2 running Caves of Koilos and Godless Shrine – good news for those of you who really liked playing The Ralphie Treatment and Nassif’s Decree.dec.
Prediction #4: GhaziGlare, in its Worlds form, will be dead.
There are a bunch of reasons for this, but suffice it to say that what was the best deck in the metagame will not be able to succeed in its old form in the new environment.
Prediction #5: Naturalize will be even better now, as will Blood Moon.
Artifact mana is used in all the Wildfire decks; Annex, Confiscate, and Dream Leash still exist; Jitte will still see some play; Faith’s Fetters is a Time Walk plus against aggro in the right deck… there will be no shortage of targets for Disenchant effects. As for Blood Moon, I’ll go out on a limb here and say there’s a chance you’ll see a Basic Land to Non-Basic land ratio of 1:1, which is fantastic for players who like lots of deck options, and fantastically scary for players building on a budget. If you want to make Chris Romeo throw up in his mouth, just show him the manabase of the true Zoo deck I posted below…
A Curious Aside:
I have not been particularly successful at the game of Magic. My playskill is slightly better than average, and most of the deckbuilding prowess I have displayed comes from tuning decks more than designing originals. In fact, the people around me seem to have a great deal more success – when it comes to playing the game – than I do. That said, there is one thing that I have been particularly awesome at over the years, and that’s predicting Standard metagames. I’m pretty good at delivering the scoop in other metagames, especially in open formats, but Standard is my baby and I’ve pegged States and Regionals for years now. Hell, I even demolished the predictions for a Standard Format Grand Prix, which is why I was mildly surprised when exactly zero pros asked me for metagame predictions prior to Hawaii (StarWarsKid does not count). We have the first Standard Pro Tour in five years occurring this weekend, but I’m still Rodney Dangerfield around here. I guess you have to be an actual member of the Pro Tour Club for your opinion to matter… Oh well.
The Many Flavors of Zoo
Three weeks ago, Flores quietly released a deck he called a “Zoo Update” on MagictheGathering.com that was really just a Guildpact Update of Pat Sullivan’s Mono-Red Deck from the Los Angeles Last Chance Qualifier. What was surprising about all of this was just how well Mike’s update tested. You probably won’t ever hear this deck called a “Zoo” deck (a downright confusing moniker for a Mono-Red deck) again, but it was designed in the spirit of the original and plays a lot better than it looks on paper. Here’s Mike’s build:
Creatures (26)
- 4 Zo-Zu the Punisher
- 4 Frostling
- 4 Hearth Kami
- 4 Frenzied Goblin
- 4 Giant Solifuge
- 4 Gruul Guildmage
- 2 Scorched Rusalka
Lands (22)
- 22 Mountain
Spells (12)
- 4 Volcanic Hammer
- 4 Shock
- 4 Char
This deck has no problems whatsoever boarding in Blood Moons, and has Shattering Spree primed for artifact-dependent control decks. It absolutely punishes slow starts or decks that get fancy with their manabases – I have been informed by people “in the know” that starting a Magic game at fourteen life is sub-optimal in non-Invitational formats. As for Giant Solifuge, I highly recommend sitting across from this with two or three burn spells, and no kids on the board or in your hand, before sleeping on the big, trampling, untargetable insect. All it does is nug people, all day long.
Creatures (23)
Lands (23)
Spells (14)
This deck takes the concept of what Mike did with the Red deck and then upsizes it a bit by adding Forests, giving you access to Kird Ape, Cloaks, Shamans, and Slums. It also gets a little greedy by running Skarrg, the Rage Pits, attempting to take advantage of the spiffy interaction between trample and Cloak. Of the three decks posted here, I like this one the best. It stands on a solid middle ground, providing a lot of power and naked aggression (while not compromising your mana base too much), and delivering more options to you in the sideboard. Speaking of delivery, is Patrick Dempsey’s summer job in Lover Boy the greatest summer job of all time? Feel free to discuss this in the forums.
Traditionally, fatter Red/Green decks have beat up on smaller Red/Green decks, and I really like being able to move on up to the Slum at the top end of the curve. There’s a small question as to whether Jitte would be better in this deck than Smokes McCloaks, but I’ve gone for synergy with this build, assuming you can always bring the pointy stick out of the board if you feel you need it. I wish there was a way to shoehorn in the tiniest smidge of White for Loxodon Baloth, but the Gruul are far too interested in keeping it real to sell out at that level.
Creatures (23)
- 3 Isamaru, Hound of Konda
- 4 Savannah Lions
- 4 Kird Ape
- 4 Watchwolf
- 4 Burning-Tree Shaman
- 4 Gruul Guildmage
Lands (23)
Spells (14)
I ran a substandard version of this at FNM this past weekend (the local store tacked on physical torture in addition to the $23 asking price for Shamans, which I politely declined), and found the deck to be both interesting and frustrating at the same time.
The manabase is something only a miser can love, and while you won’t hurt for your colors that often, you may need to mulligan frequently. Oh, and your going to do a lot of damage to yourself along the way. As a reward for your manabase pain, you get access to all of the best tools from the three top aggressive colors in Standard. It’s hard to tell what the right build of this is going to be (do you run Hierarchs main to help with the mana base damage and give you a maindeck advantage against the other aggro decks? Does Selesnya Guildmage belong in here to win the long game?), but all of your kids are good, and you have access to the best burn in the format. Just like in the last deck, Moldervine Cloak is a real kick in the nuts against any deck not running Black spells, plus it helps your men survive every Red damage spell around.
(More randomness: Is there an Elves! style deck in Extended that plays small men, Trolls, Moldervine Cloaks, and Elephant Guides? Inquiring minds want to know!)
The other thing you really have to like about this deck is the number of directions you can take the sideboard. Naturalize is an auto-include, and Tin-Street Hooligan gives you a 187 against meddlesome artifacts that leaves a beater behind as well. If you aren’t running them main, four Hierarchs will definitely come out of the board, but after that you have twenty other playables that could be included. We’ll know more about which ones are the right choices, or whether this deck is simply too painful to play, on Sunday afternoon.
Now, some of you might be looking at the lists above and wondering, “Where is Scab-Clan Mauler?” He’s sitting on the sidelines, right where he belongs. The Mono-Red deck doesn’t want him, and the Zoo deck can’t afford both his mana cost and Watchwolf’s cost on turn 2, so that leaves the Gruul Smash deck, where he just isn’t good enough. When I build a deck, I want animals in there that I can rely on, not fickle 1/1s that encourage bad play (“Uh, I’ll Shock your dome.”) just so I can cast them as 3/3s. (Though the trample bit is nice with Moldervine Cloak, I can at least admit that much.) Therefore, I’d much rather run a simple Hearth Kami or Guildmage instead, since they provide both versatility and consistency.
That’s all I have time for this time around. Assuming I can find an internet connection on Kauai, check back next week for an update on all the extra news from Pro Tour: Honolulu, including a focus on some of the hot tech you might have missed.
Until then, stay warm.
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