So Many Insane Plays — Deconstructing Combo versus Control

There is a joke in Vintage that the early game is the coin flip, the mid-game the mulligan, and the late game the first turn. The combo decks have always been fast and furious. The control decks have a reputation for being cruel and domineering. But in Vintage, the line between control and combo is tenuous indeed, as you will soon observe.

There is little that defines Vintage more than restricted cards being thrown up against Force of Wills. In this article, I’m going to walk through a sample match of Meandeck Gifts versus Grim Long, play-by-play. This is classic Vintage at its finest. Grim Long is one of the fastest decks in the metagame and in the format. It is the archetypal Vintage combo deck, practically a mirror of the restricted list.

But first here is my updated Grim Long list, in organized form so you might gleam some idea of how this deck works:

The Combo
1 Tendrils Of Agony
1 Yawgmoth’s Will

Alt Tendrils Engines
1 Necropotence
1 Yawgmoth’s Bargain
1 Mind’s Desire
1 Ancestral Recall

The Draw7s
1 Timetwister
1 Wheel Of Fortune
1 Windfall
1 Memory Jar

The Tutors
1 Tinker
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Imperial Seal
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Mystical Tutor
3 Grim Tutor

The Protections
1 Xantid Swarm
1 Chain of Vapor
4 Duress

Misc. Good Stuff
4 Brainstorm
1 Regrowth
1 Time Walk

The Mana
4 City Of Brass
3 Gemstone Mine
2 Underground Sea
1 Forbidden Orchard
1 Tolarian Academy

1 Black Lotus
1 Lion’s Eye Diamond
1 Lotus Petal
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mana Vault
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Sol Ring
2 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Dark Ritual
2 Cabal Ritual

Sideboard
3 Xantid Swarm
2 Simian Spirit Guide
2 Hurkyl’s Recall
1 Rebuild
4 Force of Will
3 Empty the Warrens

The opponent you’ll recognize from last week:

Meandeck Gifts is one of the most successful decks in the format, having won the last Vintage Championship. It is a blazingly fast and powerful Mana Drain deck.

Let’s watch the fireworks.

Game 1: The Set Up

After a roll of the die, Gifts rolled a 10 and Grim Long rolled an 18. Grim Long elected to play.

Here is the Grim Long hand (in organized form, not in the order I drew the cards):

Tolarian Academy
Mox Jet
Dark Ritual
Cabal Ritual
Brainstorm
Grim Tutor
Windfall

This hand has so many insane plays.

Despite the fact that this is pretty much a normal, straightforward hand, you might be surprised to learn that there are actually over a hundred ways to play this hand. Assuming that Grim Tutor only can find Black Lotus, there are still at least 36 permutations of possible turn 1 lines of play. I stopped counting after that.

The Gifts player elects to keep (I’ll show you that hand in a minute).

Let’s talk big picture for a moment. Before doing anything, you should be keying into Windfall.

Draw7s are extremely powerful spells: Wheel of Fortune, Windfall, Tinker → Memory Jar, and Timetwister. All of those are restricted in Vintage because of the tremendous card advantage they provide.

As a general matter, the ideal time to play a Draw7 is on the play on turn 1. In fact, that is the sole reason that Windfall has a spot in this deck. Turn 1 Draw7s are must counter spells. If your opponent has a counterspell, but doesn’t counter it, they will lose the counter anyway (Draw7s force your opponent to discard their hand before they draw new cards – a “forced” mulligan of sorts). If a Draw7 resolves, you’ll gain tremendous card advantage, possibly winning that turn. Many of my turn 1 wins have come after a turn 1 Draw7. If your opponent does counterspell the draw7, then you have drawn out a counterspell that will clear the way for your turn 2 threat. Thus, for control players, Draw7s have to be countered even though they aren’t necessarily game winning or even that great in an objective sense (after all, your opponent gets seven cards too).

Even more so than other draw7s, Windfall loses a lot of its luster on the draw. Imagine:

Turn 1:

Your opponent: Mox, Land

You: Mox, Mox, Land, Windfall

In response, your opponent plays Brainstorm. Windfall resolves and you and your opponent discard your hands and draw seven cards.

Your opponent has enjoyed some card advantage off of Windfall – putting their best cards on top of their deck (to draw back into) and putting their worst cards into their graveyard where they can later be salvaged by Yawgmoth’s Will.

Turn 1 Windfall on the play forces your opponent into a hand they neither chose nor wanted. You, on the other hand, get a great deal of card advantage out of the deal.

In this hand that we’ve drawn, Windfall is especially good. After all, we can play every single card in our hand and then play Windfall to draw seven new cards! It’s like a more expensive Contract From Below!

Draw7s do present subtle risks. With every draw 7, there is some slight risk that you’ll forcibly dump a bunch of mana acceleration into your opponents graveyard and draw them into Yawgmoth’s Will or a tutor to find Yawgmoth’s Will. That’s just a risk you have to take.

Now that I’ve spent entirely too many words explaining why Windfall is good, we need to spend a moment on another big picture question. What do you do if your Windfall is countered? When playing Grim Long you will put a lot of emphasis on your turn 1 play. Grim Long, more so than any other deck in Vintage, rewards you for aggressive play. Nonetheless, it is almost never a good idea to put all of your eggs in one basket. You will want some semblance of a backup plan.

With those two big picture items in mind, let’s take a closer look at this hand.

To begin, there are only two starting options: Mox Jet or Tolarian Academy. In a situation like this, the combo player should always play the Mox. If you drop the Academy first, the worst thing that could happen is that they counter the Mox Jet. Then you’ll have no mana at all. Playing Mox Jet first gives your opponent less information.

Once you’ve played the Mox Jet, there are only two possible subsequent plays: Dark Ritual or Tolarian Academy.

If we assume for the moment that we will eventually play either Grim Tutor, Windfall, or something drawn off of Brainstorm, then there is no reason not to play the Dark Ritual since under our assumption we are going to be using that mana.

Before we play the Academy, we should consider if we will want to play Grim Tutor, and, if so, what we might find with the Tutor.

You can Grim Tutor here for any number of cards. Here are some that come to mind:

Black Lotus
Mana Crypt
Ancestral Recall
Necropotence

If you Tutor up Black Lotus (after Mox Jet, Dark Ritual, Grim Tutor), you can play the Lotus and now tap the Tolarian for UU. For that reason, Grim Tutor for Black Lotus here actually generates mana. You could then bust the Lotus for Black, Brainstorm, and then Windfall. This seems like a great line of play.

If you Grim Tutor for Mana Crypt you can play the Mana Crypt and tap Tolarian for UU, making the Grim Tutor for Mana Crypt a mana neutral play. If you played Cabal Ritual before Grim Tutor, you’ll be able to play Windfall with UB floating and have five stable mana sources on the table next turn if your Windfall is countered.

Grim Tutoring for Ancestral isn’t a bad play either. There is some risk in this Misdirection heavy metagame – especially against a deck that runs two Misdirection – that your Ancestral will get Misdirected. In this match, that makes this a suboptimal play. Nonetheless, it is a play that may be useful if the Windfall gets countered on turn 1 and you hold the Grim Tutor back for that contingency.

Grim Tutor for Necro isn’t a terrible play either. You can Brainstorm, Grim Tutor and play turn 2 Cabal Ritual, Necro. It isn’t a great play, but it’s an option. If you survive through the Gifts player’s second turn and if you can resolve the Necro, you are going to win the game on turn 3.

It seems like Grim Tutor for Mana is the best line of play here.

So far we have played 1) Mox Jet, 2) Dark Ritual, 3) Tolarian Academy. That leaves us with 4 cards in hand and 12 options.

Note: in each line of play I assume that Grim Tutor finds Black Lotus or Mana Crypt.

Windfall immediately discarding Brainstorm, Cabal Ritual, and Grim Tutor.

Why would you ever pursue option 1? Mox, Rit, Academy, Windfall? Only if you are very sure that your opponent has Force of Will. That way you get to save your spells for turn two.

Brainstorm → Grim Tutor → Windfall

That is, I tap Academy and play Brainstorm before playing Grim Tutor or Windfall. Then I use the Dark Ritual mana to play Grim Tutor to find Black Lotus and use the Black Lotus to play Windfall. This play has a number of potential benefits. Most obviously, you’ll see more cards this way because you’ll be shuffling after you played Brainstorm. The downside is that you’ll have already tapped your Academy. If you wait, you’ll get double Blue out of it if you Grim Tutor for an artifact accelerant.

Brainstorm → Cabal Ritual → Grim Tutor → Windfall. B floating.

The play is the same as the play above except that you are using all of your mana now by playing Cabal Ritual. This will leave you with less mana next turn if your Windfall is countered.

Grim Tutor → Brainstorm (possibly putting Cabal Ritual on top of your library) → Windfall. B floating.

Grim Tutor → Brainstorm → Cabal Ritual → Windfall. BB is floating.

Grim Tutor → Cabal Ritual → Windfall. BBU floating. You discard Brainstorm and Draw7.

Grim Tutor → Brainstorm → Cabal Ritual → Windfall. BB floating.

Cabal Ritual → Windfall discarding Grim Tutor and Brainstorm. BB floating.

Cabal Ritual → Brainstorm → Grim Tutor for Black Lotus → Windfall. B floating

Cabal Ritual → Grim Tutor → Windfall discarding Brainstorm. BBU floating

Cabal Ritual → Grim Tutor → Brainstorm → Windfall. B floating.

There are a lot of options here. Note that some of these options are functionally similar. Option 8 and 11 produce the same result: Windfall with BBU floating.

Despite the fact that I diagramed all the possible configurations of these final four cards, there are really two critical questions before you:

Are you going to play Brainstorm?
If you are going to play Brainstorm, when do you play it?

If you answer those two questions, the whole hand comes together.

If we decide to play Brainstorm, all of our remaining lines of play boil down to two options:

Brainstorm and then Grim Tutor for Lotus and Windfall
Or
Grim Tutor for Lotus, Brainstorm and then Windfall

You may or may not be playing Cabal Ritual in there somewhere.

The difference between the two lines of play is twofold:

1) If you Brainstorm first, you’ll shuffle away the cards you’ve seen with Grim Tutor (options 2 and 3). This could be good. If your Brainstorm is really nutty, you can just go for the win now. If your Brainstorm isn’t that good, you’ll want to shuffle the crap you saw away anyway.

2) If you Brainstorm before playing Grim Tutor, you’ll have less mana floating after you Windfall. That’s the problem. If you Grim Tutor first, you can find Black Lotus and tap Academy for UU. That essentially makes our Brainstorm free compared to our other line of play. The problem is that you’ll be Windfalling into cards you’ve already seen with Brainstorm. If there isn’t any business in the top three cards, you’re dead in the water if they counter your Windfall.

The deciding factor for me between those two options is that if we Brainstorm after Grim Tutoring the Brainstorm will be “free” since the Academy will produce an additional Blue mana.

That leaves me with one final question and the hardest decision to make:

Should we Brainstorm at all?

What would you do?

I think reasonable people can disagree here. If we don’t Brainstorm, we’ll Windfall with at least UB floating. If we Brainstorm, we won’t have blue floating post Windfall. If your hand post-Windfall is Blue heavy, you’ll probably have to wait until next turn to try and go for the win.

Side note: this is a question that has faced this archetype since its ancestor Long.dec was around. In 2003 I wrote an article on the Long versus Control matchup in which it faced this same question: Windfall or Brainstorm?

In my view and in my experience, the right play is almost always to play Brainstorm. The reason why is this: there might be a better play than Windfall. We won’t know unless we Brainstorm. Note, however, that most of the times this dilemma arises: Brainstorm versus Windfall – it is usually in the context of a play that is not on turn 1. Windfall is at its absolute peak power turn 1 on the play. That cuts against playing Brainstorm. However, one reason to play Brainstorm is that we’ll dig a card deeper if we do. Seeing one more card in our Windfall could make a difference. After all, every new card is a card closer to Yawgmoth’s Will.

Acknowledging that I don’t know what the right play is, I go for the play that, on balance, I think will produce the strongest result. I think there is simply too great of a chance that I could just win on the spot to not Brainstorm first. Even after Brainstorm and Windfall, I’ll still have BB floating – more than enough to begin to try to Combo out of I’m fortunate enough to draw the right cards.

So, after six pages of text, the play I decide to make is this:

Grim Tutor for Black Lotus. Play Black Lotus. Tap Academy for UU. Brainstorm. Decide now whether to Cabal Ritual or put it on top. Play Windfall.

To reiterate, the reason behind that line of play is as follows: Grim Tutoring for Black Lotus enables me to tap Academy for UU. That way I can Brainstorm and Windfall and preserve access to my Cabal Ritual without having to play it. The cost of that line of play is that I will get to see fewer cards. I’ll be Windfalling into cards I’ve already seen. But, as we already established, the Brainstorm was functionally free. So we have dug one card at no cost.

So, after all that analysis, here is what Grim Long’s turn looks like:

Turn 1:

Mox Jet
Dark Ritual
Tolarian Academy
Grim Tutor. It resolves
Find Black Lotus.
Play Black Lotus
Tap Academy for UU.
Brainstorm into:

Memory Jar
Necropotence
City of Brass

Now we are confronted with three new options:

Necropotence
Windfall
Memory Jar

We can play any one of these this turn. Let’s take a look at these plays on the assumption that they will all resolve:

If we play Necropotence, we’ll burn one life and lose the Lotus. Thus, we’ll be at 16 life before we get to gorge ourselves silly on card advantage, but we’ll get an almost assured turn 2 kill. If we play Jar, it is essentially similar, but inferior to the Necro in terms of certainty of a turn 2 kill. The key risk with Jar is that they could just play a bounce spell on the Jar and we won’t have the mana to replay it. The key risk with Necro is that our opponent can pull off a low-storm, yet lethal, Tendrils on turn 1. Windfall is probably inferior to either of them, but not that bad a play. The reason Windfall is inferior to Jar is that Jar doesn’t give them new cards that they can keep.

However, what if the Gifts player Forces one of them? If they Force of Will the Necro, then we can untap and play City of Brass, Windfall next turn. That’s fairly weak because it will probably be for 3-5 cards, at most. If we play the Jar this turn and they Force of Will it, we can untap and play Windfall next turn, the same as if they counter the Necro. If we play Windfall now, we can’t play Jar next turn. The only way we could play Necro is if we have Cabal Ritual for Necro. But even then, turn 2 Necropotence isn’t remotely as powerful. The risk that they could just kill us with Tendrils is that much greater. That eliminates Windfall a play here. It has now become our turn two backup play.

Thus, I will play Necropotence with a possible turn 2 Windfall for a few cards if it gets Force of Willed.

I put Memory Jar and Windfall on top, resolving Brainstorm (you want your best card always on top of your deck in case they Duress you – unless they play maindeck Extirpate, in which case it doesn’t matter).

I sacrifice the Black Lotus for BBB and play Necro.

It resolves! I’ll necro for twelve cards, going to four life. Please don’t kill me Gifts!

I necroed into:

Windfall
Memory Jar
Mana Vault
Brainstorm
Tinker
Duress
City of Brass
Dark Ritual
City of Brass
Elvish Spirit Guide
Ancestral Recall
Mox Pearl

Remember that I was holding Cabal Ritual and a City of Brass.

I need to remove seven cards from game.

The first two cards to get pitched are two City of Brass. I need, at most, one.

I then remove Windfall since that is weaker than Jar here. That leaves four cards to go. I’ll throw away Tinker since, although it contributes to storm and shuffles, I already have Jar in hand and Black Lotus in my grave. I’ll remove ESG from game here since it is the weakest accelerant. Two cards to go.

Now I face a very difficult decision. I want all of these cards. If my opponent has access to two counterspells next turn, Duress isn’t going to clear the way. If I remove the City of Brass, there is a chance that he’ll counter my Dark Ritual off the Mox Jet. This could result in me being mana stunted unless I see another Black source off Ancestral and Brainstorm played off Academy. I’ve seen three of my ten Black-producing lands in nineteen cards, or a third of my deck. That leaves seven Black-producing lands, Lotus Petal and Mox Jet left in my deck. 40/9 equals one Black-source about every 4.44 cards. That is good odds. If I’m forced to tap City of Brass, I cannot play Grim Tutor since I’ll be at one life.

Let’s take a look at several possible configurations.

Let’s say I keep:

Duress, Dark Ritual, Cabal Ritual, Mox Pearl, Ancestral Recall, Brainstorm.

This hand might fold if the Gifts player has two counterspells up on their first turn. I could Duress and they could possibly counter Ancestral. If they counter the Dark Ritual off of Jet, the same result. I’m in trouble. Plus, I’ll have no Blue left after I play Ancestral and Brainstorm.

Duress, Dark Ritual, Cabal Ritual, Mox Pearl, Mana Vault, Ancestral Recall, Memory Jar.

With this hand I could play Dark Ritual, Duress, Mox Pearl, Mana Vault, Ancestral Recall (try to bait out countermagic). BB3UU floating. Use BU3 to play Memory Jar (sacrifice it, with the trigger on the stack) play Cabal Ritual with Threshold. Jar resolves, try to win with five Black floating and a new hand.

Can you think of a better way to go?

I end up keeping option 1. I pass the turn.

Now, at long last, you get to see Gifts hand.

I kept this hand with Gifts (in organized form):

Island
Flooded Strand
Mox Emerald
Lotus Petal
Sol Ring
Brainstorm
Mana Drain

I kept that hand because it had turn 1 Mana Drain with a lot of acceleration for an early combo.

Gifts First Turn:

I draw: Polluted Delta. Weak.

I play Mox Emerald, Sol Ring, Polluted Delta, Lotus Petal and pass the turn. The reason why I’m not playing Brainstorm is this: my plan is to hold up Drain to counter something. However, if the Drain is Duressed then I can Brainstorm into Force of Will (at least arguably).

Turn 2:

From the Grim Long player’s perspective, this turn 2 is going to be very hard. The consequences of playing the Mox Pearl and Mana Vault first are real. They will make the Gifts player less inclined to counter a Dark Ritual off Mox Jet if they see that the combo player has plenty of other mana. Thus, I play Mox Pearl and Mana Vault.

Then I tap the Jet for Dark Ritual. It resolves. I play Duress. I take the Mana Drain.

Then I tap Academy for UUU. I play Ancestral Recall. In response, Gifts breaks the Delta and plays Brainstorm.

I draw into: Demonic Tutor, Force of Will, Merchant Scroll. I put the Demonic Tutor on top and play Force of Will pitching Scroll.

Grim Long uses another U to play Brainstorm drawing: Underground Sea, Gemstone Mine, Wheel of Fortune.

It puts Underground Sea and the Cabal Ritual on top. UBB floating.

I play Gemstone Mine and tap Mana Vault. I use the Mine and two colorless to play Wheel of Fortune with 1UBB floating.

I draw:

Cabal Ritual
Underground Sea
Tendrils of Agony
Lion’s Eye Diamond
Yawgmoth’s Bargain
Underground Sea
Brainstorm

Storm count is nine.

I win.

Gifts hand is:

Demonic Tutor
Island
Tendrils of Agony
Force of Will
Polluted Delta
Repeal
Merchant Scroll

All Grim Long has to do is play Lion’s Eye Diamond and then Tendrils for 22 damage. That wins even through Force of Will here.

Note that if Grim Long tried to play Cabal Ritual, it would lose the game. Also: Gifts would easily win if it got another turn.

Excellent game.

There were lots of decisions made in this game where I think reasonable people could differ. For instance, should Grim Long have played Brainstorm? What about Grim Tutor for Black Lotus? What should Grim Long have pitched after using Necropotence?

Suffice to say, for such a straightforward hand there is a remarkable diversity of opinion as to how to play it. Among the first several teammates I shared this hand with, each suggested that they would pursue different lines of play. Paul Mastriano indicated that he wouldn’t have played Brainstorm. Pat Chapin would Grim Tutor for Mana Crypt, not Black Lotus. Mike Herbig said he’d just play Ritual, Ritual, Windfall on turn 1, leaving Black Lotus in the library. Who is to say which is right?

Sideboarding

Grim Long sideboards as follows:

-1 Windfall
-2 Elvish Spirit Guide
+3 Xantid Swarm

The reasoning behind this sideboard plan is as follows. First, Xantid Swarm is one of the most effective cards against MDG as it turns off, for one mana, all of the opposing countermagic. Turn 1 Xantid followed by turn 2 threat is very likely to result in a Grim Long game win. That is the “A” plan. Second, we do not expect to face spells like Sphere of Resistance or Chalice of the Void out of the MDG sideboard. Therefore, we do not need more Blue bounce spells. The reason we cut Windfall is because it is the weakest and most conditional of all of the threats in Grim Long. We cut the two Elvish Spirit Guides because they are the most marginal, and the least necessary of the remaining spells in the deck.

Gifts sideboards as follows:

+4 Duress
+1 Lava Dart
+2 Tormod’s Crypt
-1 Repeal
-1 Rebuild
-1 Empty the Warrens
-2 Mana Drain
-2 Misdirection

Although I cannot claim that this is definitely the proper sideboard plan, I will argue that Duress has come to occupy a more central role in Gifts post-board plans. Duress is particularly effective against Grim Long and probably more powerful than Mana Drain, at least in the sense that there will almost always be an opportunity to use it, whereas Mana Drain requires two Blue mana to be playable. The additional bounce spells, while useful at generating storm, are not particularly necessary in this matchup. Nonetheless, I kept in Chain of Vapor as a means of addressing Xantid Swarm. For that same reason, I’m sideboarding in a Lava Dart. Tormod’s Crypt directly assaults the easiest and most convenient way for Grim Long to win. It is also usable under Xantid Swarm. In exchange, I’m cutting out Misdirection, which is only playable against bounce and Ancestral Recall in this matchup, unless Grim Long brings in Force of Wills.

Game 2: The Turn

My opening hand:

Polluted Delta
Flooded Strand
Volcanic Island

Mox Pearl
Merchant Scroll
Recoup
Gifts Ungiven

Should you keep this hand?

This looks like a pretty good hand, no? I’m willing to bet that a majority of control players would keep this hand in this situation.

Not me.

This hand is too slow for this matchup. Our turn 1 options include Scrolling for Force of Will or Ancestral Recall. If we Scroll for Force of Will, we have essentially no turn 2 plays, if we are forced to use the Force. Furthermore, the Grim Long player will be aware of the fact that we have Force. I think this hand deserves a mulligan. I admit that there are arguments against a mulligan here. It is possible that we could mulligan into a similar hand, but now have fewer cards. Worse, we could draw a new hand with no mana. On balance, however, I think a mulligan is justified.

I mulligan into:

Polluted Delta
Mox Emerald
Time Walk
Merchant Scroll
Merchant Scroll
Gifts Ungiven

This is a fine hand. Keep.

Grim Long announces that it will keep.

Turn 1:

The gifts player is faced with three options. We could play:

Merchant Scroll for Ancestral Recall
Merchant Scroll for Force of Will
Time Walk.

Which would you do?

There are good reasons to make any one of these plays. Turn 1 Scroll for Ancestral means that you can Ancestral and Time Walk on turn 2 (if you see a land off of your draw or Ancestral). If you Scroll for Force of Will, you protect yourself on their turn while you are able to give yourself a chance to draw another mana and Scroll for Ancestral on turn 2 (or Time Walk) and play it on turn 2. Finally, if we Time Walk here – we’ll see another card and possibly make another land drop if we are lucky. If we do that, we can Scroll for Ancestral Recall and play it, or just Scroll for Force of Will. Most of our possible plays seem to turn on whether we draw a land in the next turn.

The reason not to play Time Walk here is that it might make more sense to play Time Walk when we can actually get some tempo advantage off it rather than just using it as a cheap cantrip. That is, if we can survive to turn 2 or 3 where we can play Time Walk and Ancestral in the same turn, that will be very powerful and give us the edge in this game. I also don’t think that we can risk giving Grim Long an unmolested turn one. Grim Long has seven cards, and if it keeps its hand, it will have seen eight cards.

Therefore, I go for play 2:

Polluted Delta → Underground Sea
Mox Emerald
Merchant Scroll for Force of Will

Do you agree or disagree?

Pass.

Grim Long’s opening hand is:

Forbidden Orchard
Gemstone Mine
Duress
Duress
Brainstorm
Mystical Tutor
Yawgmoth’s Will

To be frank, this hand is not that strong. This hand is very slow and mana-tight. It will be important for the Grim Long player to draw this game out as long as possible without letting Gifts combo out first.

Grim Long draws: Xantid Swarm.

As I explained last game, there isn’t always a clear correct answer. What matters is understanding the costs and benefits associated with a line of play.

First of all, it isn’t clear to me which land we should play. If we play Gemstone Mine here first, we could use the Mine once and then plan to subsequently use Orchard. However, we maximize our mana resources by playing Orchard first. Looking at our potential plays, it seems like we are going to be using both lands each turn for the foreseeable future. Thus, I think the correct play is turn 1e Orchard.

The next question is which of the four options to play:

Xantid Swarm
Duress
Mystical Tutor
Brainstorm

I think we can clearly eliminate Mystical as an option. There are many reasons for this. First and foremost, there is no clear Mystical target that would advance our game plan better than playing one of the other spells right here. We can always wait to play Mystical when we have a better sense of what card might be a game winner.

The real question is whether to play Duress or Xantid Swarm. The reason to play Duress is that it gives us information. We already know they have Force of Will, but it might be nice to see what else is in there. If we play Xantid Swarm, however, we pressure them into using the Force of Will. I think the play is a tossup, but so long as you have thought about the reason for either play, I think you are in good shape.

For me, here is the final step in my thought process. Since I’m not going to win next turn, the turn 1 Swarm, turn 2 win plan is out. That would seem to suggest that Duress here – as a way to force interaction – is the better play. However, if the threat of turn 2 win is strong enough, then they will be forced to play Force of Will on our Xantid. Then, next turn we can clean up with double Duress. For that reason, I play turn 1 Xantid Swarm.

Forbidden Orchard, Xantid Swarm.

Gifts plays Force of Will pitching Gifts Ungiven.

Turn 2:

Gifts untaps and draws Brainstorm!

Once again we are presented with several options:

Brainstorm
Time Walk
Merchant Scroll for Ancestral
Merchant Scroll for Force of Will

In my view, the play here should be Brainstorm and then Time Walk. That will enable us to untap and play Scroll for Ancestral. The though process behind our turn 1 play will come to life if this play can be pulled off.

Unfortunately, I Brainstormed into:

Force of Will
Ancestral Recall
Mana Drain

All is not lost, however, we have found Ancestral and a Force of Will without having to play Scroll. We can defend ourselves with Force for one more turn and then play Ancestral next turn.

Another decision looms: which cards should we put on top of our deck? Clearly Ancestral Recall should be the top card, but what should be underneath it?

If we put Time Walk below Ancestral, we can Ancestral and we will draw Time Walk and two other cards. If we draw another land in one of those two cards, we can play that land and then play Time Walk. We would then be able to untap and play Merchant Scroll and / or Mana Drain. There is also a small chance that the Grim Long player will pull off a Draw7 despite our Force of Will. This seems to suggest that we should put the strongest card underneath Ancestral. For this reason, I decide to put Time Walk underneath it.

I attack with the Spirit token and pass the turn.

Grim Long’s Second Turn:

Grim Long untaps and thinks.

We could play Mystical Tutor on our upkeep for any instant or sorcery, including Ancestral Recall. However, I think we should stick to our original plan of double Duress here.

I draw Sol Ring!

The Grim Long player has many options:

Sol Ring
Brainstorm
Mystical Tutor
Duress
Some combination thereof

I think our first play should be the play that gives us as much information as possible. Therefore, I decide to tap the Orchard for Black and play Duress. I see Force of Will, Merchant Scroll, and Mana Drain. I take the Force of Will.

Now we are faced with a genuinely difficult question. What should we play next? The Mana Drain can always be Duressed on a subsequent turn. Perhaps it is a good idea to Brainstorm now to try and accelerate our game plan? Alternatively, Sol Ring now followed by turn 3 Duress and Brainstorm might produce the fastest and safest route to victory.

After some consideration, I decide to play Sol Ring off of Gemstone Mine. My thinking is as follows: I’ve managed to heavily interact with the Gifts player. I’m not in serious danger of losing or getting out-countered. Right now, it’s anyone’s game. I think the best thing to do right now is to continue to develop. If I Brainstorm now, I’ll see no new cards next turn unless I Mystical Tutor. If I wait to Brainstorm, I’ll be one card deeper. Therefore, I decide to play Sol Ring.

Do you agree or disagree with my play?

I pass the turn.

Turn 3:

Gifts draws the Ancestral and plays it drawing:

Black Lotus
Sol Ring
Time Walk

My head asplode.

Once again, we are presented with quite a few options. Here are the major possibilities:

Play Black Lotus and Sol Ring off Mox Emerald and pass the turn.

The reason for this play is that you are holding up Mana Drain. You can sacrifice the Lotus to counter their first play and then use that Mana Drain mana next turn.

Play Black Lotus and play Sol Ring off of Mox Emerald. Sacrifice Black Lotus for UUU and tap Sol Ring to play Merchant Scroll for Gifts Ungiven. Play Time Walk. Untap and play Gifts Ungiven.

I think the reason to go for the second play is that the first play has a critical flaw: both Scroll and Time Walk are sorceries so you will be bottlenecked at the blue mana. If you Drain something, you can Time Walk, but unless you drew another blue mana source, you wont be able to Scroll for Gifts and play the Gifts that turn. Thus, I think the safer play is the second option.

As I was Merchant Scrolling I noticed that Mystical Tutor was in my library. It occurred to me that this is by far the more powerful play.

I play Black Lotus and Sol Ring and Time Walk, and Merchant Scroll for Mystical Tutor. Since I have three Blue from the Lotus, I play Mystical Tutor for Yawgmoth’s Will.

I attack with two Orchard tokens. Grim Long is at 17.

I untap and play Yawgmoth’s Will using the Sea and the Sol Ring.

I replay Black Lotus and sacrifice it for UUU. I play Ancestral Recall drawing: Mana Drain, Tormod’s Crypt, and Recoup.

I tap the Emerald and play Time Walk.

I use the last blue to play Brainstorm. I see: Brainstorm, Polluted Delta, Volcanic Island. I put back Polluted Delta and Recoup. I play Polluted Delta from my graveyard and break it for an Underground Sea. I play Mystical Tutor for Gifts Ungiven.

I attack with two Orchard tokens. Grim Long is at 15.

I play Tormod’s Crypt and take my Time Walk turn.

I untap and draw Gifts. I play Volcanic Island and attack with two Orchard tokens (Grim Long is now at 13) and pass the turn.

My plan is to play Gifts at end of turn and try to react to the game state as best I can. My only win condition is Tendrils and it will be somewhat tricky to pull it off, but I am not overly concerned just yet. I have Chain of Vapor in my deck to be able to generate storm. Plus, I have Orchard tokens to continue to beat in with.

Grim Long’s Turn 3:

Grim Long untaps and draws Ancestral Recall!

The Tormod’s Crypt on the table makes our Yawgmoth’s Will rather dead. From the looks of things, our optimal play is probably to Duress off the Orchard.

I give Gifts a third token and play Duress off of Orchard.

From the Gifts point of view, this is a tricky situation. Note that with the three tokens I can swing the Grim Long player to ten life. All I have to do is play Tendrils for ten life.

How do I accomplish this?

Recall that my board is as follows:

Underground Sea, Underground Sea, Volcanic Island, Mox Emerald, Sol Ring, and Tormod’s Crypt.

My hand is: Mana Drain, Mana Drain, Brainstorm, and Gifts Ungiven.

My graveyard has two Merchant Scrolls and two Force of Wills in it.

The question is: First, should I let Duress resolve or counter it? Second, should I Gifts right now? If so, what do I get?

The two questions are interconnected.

The reason to play Gifts right now is that you can let the Duress resolve without them being able to take Gifts. The Grim Long player will see that you have two Drains so that even if they take one counter, then you’ll still have another available. Thus, Gifting now protects you from them trying to go off.

On the other hand, if you can Drain the Duress and survive to next turn, there is a very good chance that the Gifts you make right now or on their end-step will win you the game.

Remember, you only have to do ten points of damage with Tendrils to kill them.

The critical risk is whether after countering the Duress the Grim Long player can play something that will devastate you – say like a Draw7.

The Grim Long player hasn’t played a land yet this turn. It seems to me that the best line of play is the line of play that is most risk-averse, from the MDG point of view. This is because I have Orchard tokens to beat in with. Despite the fact that my win condition is rather weak, the Grim Long player has given me the instrument of his own demise.

Therefore, I decide that I’ll let the Duress resolve. But to let the Duress resolve, I have to commit to Gifting now. This brings us back full circle. What should we Gifts for?

I can honestly say that I do not know. What do you think the optimal Gifts piles are here?

I decide that I should definitely include Recoup into any pile I choose so that I can flashback a Scroll. I also put Duress in a pile and Lava Dart as that it actual damage. For the final card I settle on Force of Will.

I give the Gifts player Duress and Lava Dart. My thinking is that Recoup is far less efficient in the graveyard and that Lava Dart is probably going to be pretty weak. If I can win now, Duress won’t matter. Even if I don’t, I’ll still have a large enough hand that Duress won’t be that bad for me. I hope.

What should Grim Long take with Duress:

Lava Dart, Duress, Mana Drain, Mana Drain, Brainstorm?

This gets fairly complex, once again. If I take the Drain, then I’ll have to play through another Drain. If I take the Brainstorm, however, I eliminate the risk that he’ll kill me next turn, barring a topdeck. In addition, if I take the Brainstorm, he’ll only be able to play one Drain next turn anyway. However, if I take the Drain and play a spell, say Ancestral, that I know he’ll Drain, I’ll have removed both Drains from the game and thus be open to winning next turn, unless he wins first.

It’s a close decision, but I decide to take one of the Drains.

Now the Grim Long player has several options:

Ancestral, which we know will get countered
Brainstorm, which may or may not resolve
Mystical Tutor

If I play Brainstorm, there is a chance I can set up a solid turn four play and lay another land on the table. If I play Ancestral, it will certainly get countered. That would mean I could play Brainstorm on turn 4, or Mystical Tutor for a Draw7 on my upkeep. This opens me up to getting Duressed.

I decide to play the Ancestral into his Drain, which is exactly what happens.

Turn 4:

Gifts untaps and draws Demonic Tutor. We have one colorless floating.

Recall that our hand is: Lava Dart, Demonic Tutor, Duress, and Brainstorm, with Recoup in the graveyard.

We could Recoup Merchant Scroll and Scroll for Gifts and play it. Alternatively, I could Duress and see what he has and then make my decisions based upon that information. I could also Demonic Tutor here. Finally, I could Brainstorm and do some combination of other plays with it.

I decide to play Duress first. I see Brainstorm, Yawgmoth’s Will, and Mystical Tutor. What would you take?

Here is my thinking: He’s at thirteen life. This turn I’ll swing with three men so that he’ll go down to ten. If I can stop whatever he wants to do next turn, I can swing with four men. I can also Lava Dart and flash it back. That will put him at four life and only one land and a Sol Ring. Unless he wins immediately thereafter, I win the game.

All I have to do, then, is not lose. So how do I best “not lose?” I’ve used both my Mana Drains and three of my Force of Wills. I have a colorless still floating from Mana Drain and I am able to DT, Recoup, and / or Brainstorm. I decide that it really doesn’t matter what I take so I take the Mystical Tutor. If I stop the Brainstorm, I’m in great shape.

What would you do:

Brainstorm
Recoup Merchant Scroll and Scroll for Force of Will or Recoup Duress to take the other threat
Demonic Tutor for Force of Will

I can potentially do all three if I see a land off Brainstorm. The risk of Brainstorming is that I may not see another Blue spell to pitch to Force of Will. My library has 33 cards, only nine of which are Blue. That’s one every 3.66 cards, on average. If I Brainstorm, there is also a chance that I’ll see a Duress, which I could use to take the Brainstorm. Finally, if I see a land with Brainstorm, I could Recoup the Scroll and Scroll for the Force of Will. I would also have enough mana to Demonic Tutor for a Blue spell. If I make this play, then I would be throwing all my resources away to stop Grim Long next turn. Yet as we already established, that is probably enough to win the game. However, there is a slim chance that Grim Long could topdeck with four life and win the game. For instance, it could topdeck a Draw7.

I can honestly say, that like the Grim Long hand permutations in game 1, I do not know which is the best play. After having given some thought to this, it seems like the Brainstorm entails less risk. But if we whiff on Blue cards, Duress, and land, we are opening ourselves to a very small risk of losing the game based upon Grim Long’s next two topdecks alone.

There is one other nuance. What if we let Brainstorm resolve? If we let Brainstorm resolve, then we can just counter whatever it is that Grim Long has thrown up at us and eliminate one of the topdeck risks. That is, Grim Long is bottlenecked at mana right now. If it plays Brainstorm, it will likely only be able to play one spell that turn and then one final spell the following turn (if it is lucky). If we let the Brainstorm resolve, we take the risk out of the equation of their topdeck next turn and open ourselves only to whatever final play Grim Long can muster.

Worst-case scenario with Brainstorm is that I don’t see Blue mana, a Blue spell, or a Duress. That seems very unlikely. However, it is possible. Best-case scenario, I see the tools to win the game right now: like Dark Ritual and a Tendrils. Short of the worst-case scenario – say I see just a land – I will be able to stop every single play but Grim Long’s final play. This is because I can DT for Force and Recoup Merchant Scroll for a Blue card. However, this would require me to use all of my resources.

In sum, if I Brainstorm, I’ll probably be able to stop anything they do except the final play. If I Recoup Duress, I lose to next turn’s topdeck, but can stop the final topdeck. If I Recoup Scroll for Force of Will, I can stop next turns topdeck but lose to the final topdeck. If I DT for Force of Will, I can stop next turn’s topdeck, but not necessarily the final topdeck. Each play has risks and rewards. Brainstorm has potentially a high payoff with modest risks.

This may seem like tortured reasoning used to justify my urgent desire to play Brainstorm, and perhaps it is. Perhaps the correct play is simply to Demonic Tutor for Force of Will and play it if they try anything threatening. However, if they force me to use my Force they can just play another threat next turn that I may not be able to stop. In the end, I’m not sure what the right play is. I decide that the most logical play is to just play Demonic Tutor for Force of Will. That’s what I do.

I attack with three tokens, sending Grim Long to ten life.

I pass the turn.

Grim Long’s Turn 4:

Grim Long draws Time Walk. I play Time Walk off of Orchard and Sol Ring generating another Spirit and going to nine life.

I untap and draw Duress.

Now I have to think.

My board is: Sol Ring, Forbidden Orchard, and Gemstone Mine with one counter on it.

My opponent has four Spirit tokens, and we know he has Lava Dart in hand.

I can play Duress and Brainstorm. What do I do?

It seems clear to me that I’ll want to play Duress right now. The two unresolved questions are:

When should I play Brainstorm?
What lands should I use to play Duress and Brainstorm?

These are not trivial questions. The timing of the Brainstorm will result in another life lost to Orchard tokens or another life saved. In addition, if I am able to wait to Brainstorm until after my next turns draw step, I’ll see another card deeper.

However, if I wait to Brainstorm – there is a chance I won’t even get another turn. What if I Duress away the Force of Will and then the Gifts player topdecks into a lethal Tendrils? After all, he’ll attack me at least for four life and two damage from Lava Dart. I’ll be at three life at most. If I give him another token right now, he can attack me to two life.

Under normal conditions, there would be little reason to wait to play Brainstorm aside from the fact that you get to see one more card. However, my Gemstone Mine is functionally a Lotus Petal here. Since that is the case I won’t “save” mana or become more mana efficient by Brainstorming before my next turn.

Hence, if I’m going to Brainstorm and Duress before my next turn, then I should play the Duress off the Gemstone Mine and Brainstorm on my opponent’s turn. However, if I’m going to wait to Brainstorm until after my next draw step, then I should probably play Duress off of the Orchard so that I’ll be another card deeper and still have the Gemstone Mine to use to play cards I see with Brainstorm.

The remaining question then is: will I want to Brainstorm before my next turn? I don’t know, but I decide that I probably will.

Thus, the life ends up influencing my decision-making process here.

I tap and sacrifice the Gemstone Mine and Duress taking the Force of Will.

I pass the turn.

In my end step, Gifts plays Lava Dart, sending Grim Long to eight.

Turn 5:

Gifts untaps and draws Flooded Strand. I attack with four men. Grim Long is at four.

I’m two mana short from being able to win right now by Recouping Demonic Tutor and finding Tendrils and playing it.

Instead, I tap the Volcanic Island and play Brainstorm drawing: Tolarian, Tendrils, Island.

Gifts has drawn the win. Gifts puts back Island and Strand and plays Tendrils.

In response, Grim Long taps Orchard for Brainstorm and draws: Vampiric Tutor, Grim Tutor, and Cabal Ritual. In the end, it wouldn’t have mattered.

Gifts wins.

Analysis: Grim Long was able throw sufficient disruption into the mix and present a sufficiently deadly threat that Gifts bent over backwards to answer it. Ironically, the way Gifts won was through Orchard token beatdown. Grim Long’s own manabase supplied the instrument of its own destruction.

There were a couple of critical junctures where Grim Long may have been able to win if it had played differently. The first that comes to mind is the play of Xantid Swarm to bait out Force of Will. The Drains and Force of Wills, ironically, were game-deciding. Gifts managed to throw up every single piece of countermagic it had up against Grim Long.

Tormod’s Crypt was really important. Grim Long was holding Yawgmoth’s Will the entire time and would have been able to play it many times through Gifts countermagic. If not for the Tormod’s Crypt, Grim Long would have easily won this game.

In retrospect, if I made a mistake it was keeping this hand. I aggressively mulliganed with Gifts. Especially in light of the fact that Gifts mulliganed, I think that Grim Long could have afforded a mulligan there. If this was Pitch Long and those Duresses had been Force of Wills, and the lands had been Fetchlands, this hand would have been a lot stronger. That isn’t a slam against Grim Long. I knowingly play with a five-color manabase to take advantage of the advantages it affords. I arguably should have realized that the costs associated with the five-color manabase make this hand too risky to keep.

Sideboarding For Game 3

From the Gifts perspective, things went well last game. We had a nice mix of disruption and countermagic. If there was any weakness, it was with the win condition. We may have had trouble trying to achieve a twenty-point Tendrils, but Grim Long will always do a decent among of damage to itself if the game goes long enough.

From the Grim Long perspective, it may be nice to have Force of Wills over Duress or Xantid Swarm, but since we will be on the play, that seems less necessary. Duress and Xantid Swarm are strongest when played on turn 1 on the play.

For those reasons, neither deck will make any sideboarding changes.

Game 3: The Prestige

Grim Long is on the play and opens with:

City of Brass
Mox Jet
Mox Pearl
Mana Crypt
Cabal Ritual
Dark Ritual
Brainstorm

If Brainstorm finds any threat, this hand is a turn 1 goldfish. The sheer quantity of excellent acceleration results in being able to play virtually anything – if not now, then next turn. The problem with this hand is that if my top three cards are more mana, then I have just lost this game. There is also a risk that if my Brainstorm gets countered or if I only see one threat off the Brainstorm and it gets countered, then I could be drawing junk for two more turns – giving Gifts two free Time Walks is effectively conceding the game.

I think reasonable people can disagree about the correct play here. In my view, the safer and conservative play would be to mulligan. The riskier but higher payoff play is to keep it. I play Grim Long aggressively. For that reason, I keep this hand.

What would you do?

Gifts mulligans to six and then keeps.

Turn 1:

Grim Long plays City of Brass, Brainstorm drawing:

Mind’s Desire
Mystical Tutor
Brainstorm

Although I’m relieved to see business spells, I’m disappointed that they are all Blue. My Black mana-heavy hand now becomes contingent upon pulling of Desire or drawing into different spells next turn.

In terms of strategy, my “A” plan immediately becomes Desire. The thought is to upkeep Mystical into Demonic Tutor for Tolarian Academy or Black Lotus to play the Desire. Thus, I’ll put back Mox Pearl and Cabal Ritual and pass the turn.

Gifts First Turn:

Gifts opening hand was:

Island
Island
Dark Ritual
Mana Vault
Vampiric Tutor
Merchant Scroll
Force of Will

This is problematic – it doesn’t have any black mana yet it seems to be relying on Vamp. I don’t think it is keepable. This has similar problems to the hand that we first drew in game 2. However, the aggressive mulligan with Gifts produced a game win last time. Perhaps history will repeat itself.

Gifts mulliganed into:

Mox Jet
Island
Lotus Petal
Time Walk
Merchant Scroll
Dark Ritual

This hand is even more broken than last game’s mulligan.

Grim Long passes the turn and Gifts draws Underground Sea.

The Gifts player faces some difficult decision-making. It can Time Walk and Merchant Scroll on turn 1 if it plays the Dark Ritual. That play would look like this:

Mox Jet
Lotus Petal
Land
Lotus Petal
Time Walk
Merchant Scroll

That play would enable me to play Ancestral Recall, but then I’d be completely out of steam. It is clear that I can’t just pass the turn without doing something. Instead I decide to play Time Walk.

Time Walk here would let me play Scroll and Ancestral on turn 2 and play another land on the same turn.

I play Underground Sea, Mox Jet, Time Walk.

I untap and draw: Recoup

I play Island and Lotus Petal. I play Merchant Scroll for Ancestral Recall and play it, leaving Lotus Petal unused, drawing Duress, Mox Emerald, and Polluted Delta.

I sacrifice the Lotus Petal to play Duress.

I see: Brainstorm, Mystical Tutor, Mind’s Desire, Mox Jet, Mana Crypt, and Dark Ritual.

Let’s take a look at each option.

If I take the Desire, then he will be able to Mystical on his upkeep and still get something good with Demonic Tutor. He probably wouldn’t be able to win next turn, however. If he had another blue mana source, he would have put the Desire on top of his deck.

If I take the Mox Jet, that would cut off the Demonic Tutor play and force him into a third turn as well. However, he’d still have all his bombs. He could mystical for Ancestral if he wanted.

If I took Mystical Tutor, then he wouldn’t be able to shuffle and probably wouldn’t be able to play the Desire for some time.

Taking Crypt or Dark Ritual would put him off Desire for at least one more turn. Thus, any of these plays would buy me at least a turn.

How much time will I have? My plan looks like to Recoup Duress again next turn or Recoup Scroll for Gifts. I might be able to do both.

I think it comes down to the Mystical Tutor or the Mox Jet.

Which would you take?

It’s a toss-up in my book. I decide to take the Mox Jet.

Turn 2:

Grim Long: On my upkeep, I play Mystical Tutor for Ancestral Recall

I pass the turn.

Gifts: Draws Mystical Tutor.

Now watch this drive:

Play Flooded Strand. Play Mox Emerald. Break strand for Volcanic Island.

I have Mox Emerald, Mox Jet, and three lands in play. I Recoup targeting Time Walk and flash back Time Walk. I play Mystical Tutor for Demonic Tutor.

I untap and draw Demonic. I tap Mox Jet to play Dark Ritual, Tap Mox Emerald to Demonic Tutor for Will. BB floating. Use BB and tap Island to play Yawgmoth’s Will.

I replay Lotus Petal. I sacrifice it to play Dark Ritual. I use BB to play Demonic Tutor for Black Lotus. I tap Underground Sea and Volcanic Island for UU.

I play Mystical Tutor for Tendrils of Agony. I play Ancestral Recall and draw the Tendrils and two other cards. I play a Flooded Strand from my graveyard. I sacrifice the Strand for an Island and sacrifice the Black Lotus for BBB.

I play Tendrils of Agony for exactly ten storm (it didn’t matter, as Grim Long was at eighteen). But I had exactly enough mana to win on turn 2.

So there it ends – with the “Control” deck winning on turn 2.

Zvi once chided that although there are many lines of play only one is optimal. Although this was merely one match, as you can see there are dozens, if not hundreds, of potential lines of play in any given four-turn game of Vintage. Should we really take the time to examine each and every single line of play to discern that play?

Of the hundreds of lines of play possible in each of these games, the vast majority – perhaps as many as 98% – were clearly irrelevant or clearly inferior. Take the second play of game 1, for instance. There is really no difference between playing Tolarian Academy or Dark Ritual after the Mox Jet. However, that alone leads to several dozen different “lines.”

For all of the irrelevant lines of play, there are many relevant lines of play that will get you to the same result. For instance, it probably wouldn’t have mattered if I had played Scroll and Ancestral on turn 1 in that last game or the way I did it. Similarly, thinking about game 1, it probably wouldn’t have mattered if Grim Long had played Windfall instead of Brainstorm plus Necro on turn 1.

That said, there were many times – perhaps as many as half a dozen or more during this match where I honestly couldn’t tell what the correct play was. At those times, I asked you, the reader, what you would do. I would submit to you that the answer doesn’t matter.

Have you ever sat in a class where the Professor or teacher, in preparation for an upcoming exam, reminded the class that there isn’t necessarily a correct answer to the essay exam – that what matters isn’t how you come out, but how you support your answer?

I would submit to you that this is the key to Vintage complexity.

Many lines of play are going to be wrong and clearly so. Other lines of play aren’t clearly wrong, but seem weak. Many lines of play will appear to be decent or acceptable. But these are distinguishable from the lines of play that you will perceive to be among the absolute strongest. The problem arises when you cannot decide among several competing very strong lines of play.

In my view, the task of a good Vintage player isn’t to be able to identify the optimal play among several excellent plays. The task of a good Vintage player is to be able to think about why a given line of play is good and why it might not be so good. In each case in which I thought there were genuinely close and debatable plays, I presented the reasons for and against those plays and made the decision that I felt was weighted, however slightly, toward the play I decided on.

In Vintage, there will be very clearly obvious reasons to pursue a given line of play. What separates the wheat from the chaff and the players who outperform the rest is an understanding of the more subtle risks and benefits of any particular line of play. This is why I say that understanding is more important than identifying the optimal line of play. Understanding will lead to better decisions in the long run.

I hope that this article has helped you see reasons for or against some lines of play that you may not have considered.

Until next time,

Stephen Menendian