Mythic Championship Cleveland Preview By The Numbers

With Mythic Championship I, Cleveland this weekend, the top of the Magic world will be focused on Ravnica Allegiance Standard. This Standard format is as open a format as we’ve seen with at least six viable archetypes, many of which have a lot of deck-building options. To wrap our heads around the format, we dug through the data from the three major tournaments of the current format: the Standard Opens at SCG Indianapolis and SCG Dallas, plus Grand Prix Memphis. Let’s take a look at the major archetypes you’re likely to see at the Mythic Championship and how they match up.

Sultai Midrange

Sultai Midrange

Anthony Devarti

1st Place at Star City Games Open on 01-26-2019

Standard

Creatures (26)

• 4 Llanowar Elves
• 2 Carnage Tyrant
• 4 Wildgrowth Walker
• 4 Merfolk Branchwalker
• 1 Seekers' Squire
• 4 Jadelight Ranger
• 2 Ravenous Chupacabra
• 2 Midnight Reaper
• 3 Hydroid Krasis

Planeswalkers (3)

• 3 Vivien Reid

Lands (24)

• 4 Forest
• 2 Swamp
• 1 Island
• 4 Overgrown Tomb
• 2 Watery Grave
• 4 Breeding Pool
• 1 Drowned Catacomb
• 4 Woodland Cemetery
• 2 Memorial to Folly

Spells (7)

• 2 Vraska's Contempt
• 2 Cast Down
• 3 Find

Sideboard

• 4 Duress
• 2 Negate
• 1 Disdainful Stroke
• 1 Vraska's Contempt
• 1 Crushing Canopy
• 1 Tendershoot Dryad
• 2 The Eldest Reborn
• 3 Cry of the Carnarium

Sultai Midrange was the most popular Day 2 deck at each of the three major tournaments. Being the most popular deck in a balanced format makes it perhaps not surprising that the overall results are very close to average.

Let’s take a look at the matchups.

Here we see very different results against the aggro decks, with Sultai crushing Azorius Aggro and faring poorly against Mono-Blue Aggro. The control matchup is less extreme but seems good on paper, and the numbers back that up.

Sultai Midrange, like its Golgari ancestor last format, is the most adaptable archetype. The deck has changed since Mono-Blue Aggro has made its impact on Standard. Let’s take a look at the cards that showed up more often at GP Memphis than SCG Indianapolis and SCG Dallas. The values in the chart show the average number of copies in the 75 for Sultai Midrange decklists.

The name of the game has become having access to cheap ways to deal with the flyers. Expect to see a lot of Cast Downs and Kraul Harpooners for the Mono-Blue matchup, and for Thief of Sanity to come in against both Mono-Blue and Control. Hostage Taker has continued to further encroach on Ravenous Chupacabra’s territory and is the ultimate mirror tech. Llanowar Elves on this list shows that the community has reached a consensus on it being a four-of in the deck, so expect to see a lot of Turn 1 Elves being cast by Sultai mages this weekend.

Mono-Blue Aggro

Mono-Blue Aggro

Robert Wagner-Krankel

1st Place at Star City Games Open on 02-09-2019

Standard

Creatures (19)

• 4 Siren Stormtamer
• 3 Mist-Cloaked Herald
• 4 Merfolk Trickster
• 4 Tempest Djinn
• 4 Pteramander

Lands (19)

• 19 Island

Spells (22)

• 4 Opt
• 3 Spell Pierce
• 3 Chart a Course
• 2 Dive Down
• 4 Curious Obsession
• 1 Blink of an Eye
• 4 Wizard's Retort
• 1 Essence Capture

Sideboard

• 3 Negate
• 2 Entrancing Melody
• 1 Search for Azcanta
• 2 Deep Freeze
• 2 Exclusion Mage
• 3 Surge Mare
• 2 Faerie Duelist

Mono-Blue Aggro started out slow, with only two pilots making Day 2 at SCG Indianapolis, but, as our friends at The GAM Podcast correctly predicted, has become the “it deck” of Ravnica Allegiance Standard.

A lot of its appeal comes down to having strong matchups against Sultai Midrange, Esper Control, and the various Nexus of Fate decks, which you can see here:

With only two decklists from SCG Indianapolis, it’s tougher to compare builds across tournaments, but the decklists from SCG Dallas and GP Memphis have shown that both the maindeck and sideboard have solidified. There was some debate over how many, if any, copies of Mist-Cloaked Herald should be in the deck. While there’s not full agreement, the most common answer by far is three. Ten of the seventeen decklists we have from Dallas and Memphis were running three copies, including Robert Wagner-Krankel’s Standard Open winning list. Only two of those seventeen lists didn’t run any copies of Mist-Cloaked Herald.

Turning to the sideboard, expect to see a lot of Surge Mare, Deep Freeze, and Entrancing Melody, which have all become staples, with two to three in virtually every list. A card to look out for is Faerie Duelist, which isn’t as common but, as a good card against Azorius Aggro, could show up more at the Mythic Championship this weekend.

Esper Control

Esper Control

Jonathan Hobbs

2nd Place at Star City Games Open on 02-09-2019

Standard

Planeswalkers (4)

• 4 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

Lands (26)

• 1 Plains
• 1 Swamp
• 4 Watery Grave
• 4 Godless Shrine
• 4 Hallowed Fountain
• 4 Drowned Catacomb
• 4 Glacial Fortress
• 4 Isolated Chapel

Spells (30)

• 4 Absorb
• 3 Mortify
• 2 Negate
• 3 Vraska's Contempt
• 2 Search for Azcanta
• 2 Moment of Craving
• 1 Cast Down
• 3 Thought Erasure
• 2 Chemister's Insight
• 2 Precognitive Perception
• 2 Cry of the Carnarium
• 3 Kaya's Wrath
• 1 Warrant

Sideboard

• 3 Duress
• 2 Hostage Taker
• 1 The Eldest Reborn
• 4 Thief of Sanity
• 4 Basilica Bell-Haunt
• 1 Kaya's Wrath

Esper Control was one of the most popular decks in each of three major tournaments. While the overall record isn’t amazing, that’s not going to stop the best control mages in the world from sleeving up Teferi, Hero of Dominaria this weekend.

Here are the matchup results, which don’t look very promising:

Trends in deck choices are similar to those for Sultai Midrange, moving toward cheaper answers. Expect to see a lot of Thought Erasure in the maindeck as well as Cast Down and Thief of Sanity out of the sideboard. There wasn’t a single copy of Hostage Taker in the Esper Control decks at SCG Indianapolis, but they have become the sideboard card of choice against Sultai Midrange decks running Hydroid Krasis. Another new card to look out for is Basilica Bell-Haunt, which has been showing up more often to fight Azorius Aggro.

Azorius Aggro

Azorius Aggro

Juan Leyva

3rd Place at Star City Games Open on 02-09-2019

Standard

Creatures (29)

• 4 Ajani's Pridemate
• 4 Adanto Vanguard
• 3 Snubhorn Sentry
• 4 Benalish Marshal
• 4 Dauntless Bodyguard
• 4 Leonin Vanguard
• 4 Healer's Hawk
• 2 Deputy of Detention

Lands (20)

• 12 Plains
• 4 Hallowed Fountain
• 4 Glacial Fortress

Spells (11)

• 4 Legion's Landing
• 4 History of Benalia
• 2 Conclave Tribunal
• 1 Unbreakable Formation

Sideboard

• 2 Negate
• 1 Spell Pierce
• 4 Tocatli Honor Guard
• 3 Baffling End
• 1 Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants
• 1 Conclave Tribunal
• 1 Selective Snare
• 2 Dovin, Grand Arbiter

Note: the numbers above are for the Azorius variant only. There were also Mono-White versions that made the Top 8 at GP Memphis and one finishing tenth at SCG Dallas.

With a strong endorsement from the last Pro Tour Champion, Andrew Elenbogen, and a tepid one from the editor of this very article, Azorius Aggro has seen its stock rise with the popularity of Mono-Blue Aggro.

You can see why this is by looking at the matchups. We have a traditional rock-paper-scissors situation. Azorius Aggro needs Mono-Blue Aggro, a favorable matchup, to keep down its worst matchup, Sultai Midrange.

With numbers like that, it’s pretty clear where the deck needs help. In the sideboard games, expect to see the main tech against Sultai Midrange: Tocatli Honor Guard; Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants; and Baffling End.

Nexus of Fate Decks

Simic Nexus

John Johnson

4th Place at Star City Games Open on 02-09-2019

Standard

Creatures (7)

• 3 Hydroid Krasis
• 4 Frilled Mystic

Lands (26)

• 6 Forest
• 5 Island
• 4 Breeding Pool
• 4 Hinterland Harbor
• 2 Simic Guildgate
• 1 Arch of Orazca
• 4 Memorial to Genius

Spells (27)

• 4 Search for Azcanta
• 3 Blink of an Eye
• 4 Nexus of Fate
• 4 Root Snare
• 4 Chemister's Insight
• 4 Growth Spiral
• 4 Wilderness Reclamation

Sideboard

• 3 Negate
• 1 Pelakka Wurm
• 2 Carnage Tyrant
• 3 Crushing Canopy
• 1 Nezahal, Primal Tide
• 4 Biogenic Ooze
• 1 Sagittars' Volley

The last and most difficult to analyze of the major archetypes attempts to take all the turns. Unlike those discussed above, the community hasn’t reached a consensus on the best way to build around Wilderness Reclamation and Nexus of Fate. There are Simic and Bant versions relying on Root Snare to blank the opponent’s early attacks and the Gate build which leans on Gates Ablaze to sweep opposing creatures off the battlefield.

While the sample sizes are small, going by record, the best version was Simic, which went 17 – 8 in matches against the Day 2 metagame. The Bant (17 – 30) and Gate (20 – 30) versions each were under 50%. It’ll be exciting to see what builds the pros put together after testing.

Looking at the matchups, it seems like the metagame has shifted in a bad way for the Nexus of Fate decks, with its worst matchups on the rise.

Will the pros figure out a way to deal with opponents packing a bunch of counterspells or one-drop creatures? We’re excited to see what they come up with.

Other Decks?

Rakdos Midrange

Jody Keith

1st Place at Grand Prix on 02-16-2019

Standard

Creatures (19)

• 3 Siege-Gang Commander
• 4 Rekindling Phoenix
• 4 Dire Fleet Daredevil
• 4 Goblin Chainwhirler
• 4 Rix Maadi Reveler

Planeswalkers (1)

• 1 Karn, Scion of Urza

Lands (25)

• 1 Swamp
• 14 Mountain
• 4 Blood Crypt
• 4 Dragonskull Summit
• 1 Rakdos Guildgate
• 1 Cinder Barrens

Spells (15)

• 2 Shock
• 4 Treasure Map
• 2 The Eldest Reborn
• 4 Lava Coil
• 3 Carnival

Sideboard

• 4 Duress
• 2 Fiery Cannonade
• 1 Angrath, the Flame-Chained
• 1 Fight with Fire
• 1 Shivan Fire
• 3 Legion Warboss
• 1 Status
• 2 Theater of Horrors

While these are the five biggest archetypes, they are far from the only types of decks being played. Most notably, Jody Keith just won GP Memphis with Rakdos Midrange. The same deck showed up exactly once on Day 2 of an SCG Standard Open… once again piloted by Jody Keith, who managed a mere Top 8 at SCG Dallas. The same player and deck getting a Top 8 and winning a trophy in major tournaments a week apart is very impressive and worth looking into.

Izzet Drakes and Mono-Red Aggro have seen some play but seem to have fallen into Tier 2, along with others like Esper Midrange and Bant Flash, which haven’t made much of an impact on the format.

Barring a major surprise, we expect to see one of the five archetypes above or perhaps Rakdos Midrange take down the trophy. The data we have point to the rock-paper-scissors of Sultai Midrange, Mono-Blue Aggro, and Azorius Aggro being the best positioned, but Esper Control and decks built around Nexus of Fate should not be counted out, as they’ll benefit from the extra time to prepare against a relatively settled metagame.