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May Metagame Breakdown

Another diverse, interesting month is behind us, and hopefully a good sign for the summer. If you want to see the most up-to-date information on the Type I metagame before heading into the summer convention season (which officially starts at Origins this weekend), this is the place.

Another diverse, interesting month is behind us, and hopefully a good sign for the summer.


2004-04-24 Waterbury (150 players)


1. Food Chain Goblins

2. GroStill (Standstill GAT)

3. 4C Control

4. U/R Fish

5. U/R Fish

6. U/G Madness

7. Oshawa Stompy

8. Control Slavery


2004-04-24 Gothenburg (99 players)

1. Trinistax

2. Hulk Smash

3. Control Slavery

4. Workshop Slavery

5. Control Slavery

6. Food Chain Goblins

7. Hulk Smash

8. Mono Blue Control


2004-05-02 Turin (61 players)

1. TPS

2. wMUD

3. TPS

4. R/U/G Control Madness

5. Rector Tendrils

6. TPS

7. Trini-TnT

8. R/G Beatz


2004-05-09 Dulmen (92 players)

1. 4C Control

2. Charbelcher

3. Gro-A-Tog

4. 4C Control

5. Hulk Smash

6. 4C Control

7. 4C Control

8. Madness


2004-05-16 Bologna (51 players)

1. Hulk Smash

2. 4C Control

3. Hulk Smash

4. Dragon

5. R/U/G Control Madness

6. Stacker (Monobrown)

7. TnT

8. TPS


2004-05-16 Getafe (97 players)

1. Gro-A-Tog

2. U/R Landstill

3. IsoGro

4. 4C Control (Isochron)

5. U/R Landstill

6. Dragon

7. R/G Beatz

8. U/R Fish


Six tournaments totaled (51,61,92,97,99,150 = 550 players, 91.7 average players)

7 4C Control (1,2,3,4,4,6,7)

5 Hulk Smash (1,2,3,5,7)

4 TPS (1,3,6,8)

3 GAT (1,2,3)

3 Food Chain Goblins (1,6,6)

3 Control Slavery (3,5,8)

3 Fish (4,5,8)

3 Madness (4,5,8)

2 Landstill (2,5)

2 Dragon (4,6)

2 TnT (7,7)

2 RG Beatz (7,8)

1 Trinistax (1)

1 Charbelcher (2)

1 wMUD (2)

1 IsoGro (3)

1 Workshop Slavery (4)

1 Rector (5)

1 Stacker (6)

1 Oshawa Stompy (7)

1 Mono Blue Control (8)


(1) Archetype Concentration

Average Showing – Monthly Showings (Q4 2003 through May) [Deck Name]

10.9% – _8.8, 12.5, 10.0, _9.7, _9.7, 14.6 4C Control*

_8.8% – _1.3, _7.5, 12.5, 12.5, _8.5, 10.4 Hulk Smash

_7.0% – 17.5, _2.5, _5.0, _5.6, _6.9, _4.2 Dragon

_6.6% – 11.3, _2.5, _5.0, _4.2, _8.5, _8.3 Storm Combo

_6.1% – _3.8, 12.5, _7.5, _2.8, _4.2, _6.3 Madness

_5.3% – _7.5, _0.0, 12.5, _5.6, _4.2, _2.1 Rector

_5.1% – _6.3, _7.5, _7.5, _2.8, _4.2, _2.1 Stax

_4.6% – _5.0, _5.0, _5.0, _2.8, _5.6, _4.2 TnT

_3.9% – _0.0, _5.0, _5.0, _5.6, _1.4, _6.3 FCG / Gobvantage

_3.6% – _2.5, _7.5, _5.0, _2.8, _1.4, _2.1 Stacker

_3.5% – _3.8, _2.5, _0.0, _5.6, _2.8, _6.3 Fish

_3.4% – _5.0, _2.5, _5.0, _0.0, _1.4, _6.3 GAT (includes IsoGAT, Grostill)

_3.3% – _1.3, _2.5, _2.5, _2.8, _4.2, _6.3 Control Slavery

_3.1% – _0.0, _5.0, _2.5, _2.8, _4.2, _4.2 Landstill

_2.4% – _3.8, _5.0, _2.5, _1.4, _1.4, _0.0 Goblin Sligh

_2.4% – _0.0, _2.5, _2.5, _1.4, _5.6, _2.1 Workshop Slavery

_2.1% – _0.0, _2.5, _2.5, _1.4, _2.8, _2.1 MUD / wMUD

_2.0% – _2.5, _0.0, _2.5, _2.8, _4.2, _0.0 Vengeur Masque

_1.6% – _0.0, _2.5, _0.0, _2.8, _0.0, _4.2 R/G Beatz

_1.4% – _0.0, _5.0, _0.0, _1.4, _0.0, _2.1 Oshawa Stompy

_1.3% – _2.5, _0.0, _2.5, _2.8, _0.0, _0.0 SuperGro

_1.1% – _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _2.8, _1.4, _2.1 Charbelcher

_1.0% – _2.5, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _1.4, _2.1 Monoblue

_0.9% – _1.3, _0.0, _0.0, _2.8, _1.4, _0.0 Sligh

_0.9% – _0.0, _0.0, _2.5, _2.8, _0.0, _0.0 MadDragon

_0.9% – _0.0, _2.5, _0.0, _1.4, _1.4, _0.0 U/rPhid

_0.7% – _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _4.2, _0.0 Affinity

_0.7% – _0.0, _2.5, _0.0, _1.4, _0.0, _0.0 EBA

_0.7% – _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _4.2, _0.0 Modular


* – IsoKeeper merged with other 4C Control


As last month, a couple dozen decks have occasional appearances throughout this time period, but are less than 0.5% and thus aren’t tracked. The difference is that this month, only one archetype was added to this collection, and it was a narrowly tweaked deck in between the previously existing SuperGro and GAT archetypes (IsoGro). This is just a fraction of the number of”random” decks from previous months like March and April, so it could be interpreted as a sign of increasing metagame concentration into the above twenty-nine archetypes.


Data Period – # unique archetypes (per T8) [number of archetypes in each Top 8] = [average]

2003-09&10 – 20 archetypes (4.0 / T8) 6,8,5,7,8 = 6.8

—–Mirrodin legal

2003-11&12 – 20 archetypes (4.0 / T8) 4,7,5,6,8 = 6.0

—–Restriction: Burning Wish, Chrome Mox, Lion’s Eye Diamond

2004-Jan – 26 archetypes (4.4 / T8) 6,8,7,7,7 = 7.0

2004-Feb – 19 archetypes (3.8 / T8) 6,7,7,7,7 = 6.8

—–Darksteel legal

2004-Mar – 34 archetypes (3.8 / T8) 6,8,8,7,7,6,7,6,7 = 6.9

2004-Apr – 28 archetypes (3.1 / T8) 7,8,7,7,8,8,5,6,7 = 7.0

2004-May – 21 archetypes (3.5 / T8) 7,6,6,5,7,7 = 6.3


This month was very nearly the most concentrated on record by either of these measures, and while June might be affected by Fifth Dawn towards the end, it is my hope that by the end of August we will consider it more normal to have just six different decks in an average Top 8. (Problems that other formats have wet dreams about, right? I can see the R&D meeting right now:”You mean that every other Magic player ever has wished for more viability of weird decks, and these guys are wishing it would go away? Buuuuuh?”)


(Warning: If you’re not into this numbers stuff, you should probably skip down to the Watch List from here.) The last measure of concentration is the number of distinct cardnames. This, of course, has the same problem as dividing the number of played archetypes by the number of tournaments: more tournaments yields dramatically different results.


354 cardnames in Q4 2003 (10)

262 cardnames in January (5)

267 cardnames in February (5)

372 cardnames in March (9)

335 cardnames in April (9)

271 cardnames in May (6)


Despite the significant limits of this measure, it does show that May is probably the tightest month for card choices. We would expect that each additional Top 8 has a ‘diminishing return’ in terms of how many cards it adds to the played list–for example, January Dulmen had 120 different cardnames in the Top 8. The January Waterbury Top 8 (irrespective of the Dulmen count) contained 123 cardnames, despite being almost maximally diverse by Type One standards. January’s total is just over twice that, with four additional tournaments; January and February will be our baseline as the smallest available data sets.


So for our smaller samples (January and February), the average second through fifth tournament added onto the first adds a little over 35 cardnames. In the larger samples (March and April), adding on the sixth through ninth tournaments adds on average about 22 more cardnames each. (This even holds for the 2003 data, within reason.) By this measure, May accumulated fewer cardnames than we would predict for six Top 8s, and thus was”tighter” in choosing what should be the most powerful cards.


(2) Pip’s Watch List

In terms of appearances per Top 8:


Jan., Feb., Mar., Apr., May

_2.8, _3.4, _3.1, _3.3, _4.0 – 24 Yawgmoth’s Will

10.4, _8.5, 10.2, _9.3, 13.8 – 83 Mana Drain

_5.2, _7.4, _6.3, _6.3, _8.5 – 51 Cunning Wish

_3.0, _3.2, _3.4, _2.1, _4.5 – 27 Intuition

_7.8, _6.4, _4.7, _8.9, _4.2 – 25 Mishra’s Workshop

_6.4, _4.0, _4.0, _3.6, _4.0 – 24 Bazaar of Baghdad

_1.6, _5.6, _4.0, _4.7, _4.0 – 24 Dark Ritual

_2.2, _3.8, _3.0, _2.1, _3.3 – 20 Psychatog

_2.4, _3.4, _1.3, _3.8, _3.2 – 19 Thirst for Knowledge

_1.6, _0.0, _3.0, _1.3, _1.8 – 11 Elvish Spirit Guide


There was a sharp increase in Yawgmoth’s Will, Mana Drain, Cunning Wish, and Intuition… all while Hulk Smash is faring less well in the tournament scene than it was in March. The answer to the puzzle is partially GAT, partially Control Slaver, and majorly 4C Control (new marketing slogan:”Keeper: Renamed so it doesn’t refer to Elemental Augury a mere millennium after it should have been”).


Is this cause for concern? Well, in the past, Gush was restricted when its use in Gro-A-Tog decks comprised 36.7% of Top 8s, though you should note that Steve included smaller tournaments than I would have in his analysis of two years ago. If Mana Drain is now at an average occurrence rate where there will be three or more decks centering on it in every Top 8, then the card has hit this threshold and must receive even more careful scrutiny.


One key difference is that Mana Drain is much more reactive than Gush. Gush can be used to save your Underground Sea from a Wasteland, but that doesn’t make it any less capable of proactively winning the game. Mana Drain, as a prerequisite for effectiveness, requires the opponent to play a spell (Remember Animaniacs? Good Idea: Draining your opponent’s spell. Bad Idea: Draining your own spell.), but it still produces acceleration on your next main phase, enabling the large spells in control decks to go off very early in the game.


Because of this different behavior, Mana Drain is much less likely to be restricted for domination, as opposed to distortion, which it most certainly is guilty of to some extent. Raphael Caron (formerly known as K-Run), the creator of the White-heavy Parfait control deck, has long been an advocate for Drain’s restriction based on its overt impact on the mana curve of every deck in the format. I am inclined to agree with his statements about the effect on mana curves. Certainly the average casting cost hovering just over two inclines one to agree that spells as expensive or moreso than Drain are difficult to justify (and this average is so low despite the upward bias of various ACC cards counting as their listed mana cost).


The second key difference between Drain and Gush is that Mana Drain forms the center of several decks, not just one. The recent Type Two Skullclamp banning* sets a rough benchmark of 75% use on a metagame-distorting card employed by many decks. Obviously, Mana Drain is not at this level and might never be, but that doesn’t mean that 75% is the lower limit for restriction, or that we should ignore the singleton factor: you’re only losing three copies of the card, so perhaps the threshold for action should be lower. [The threshold should be much lower for Type I, if only because of the increased card pool and the standard metagame diversity Pip has been referring to. – Knut]


* – As an aside, did anyone else notice that a T2-relevant announcement was posted at midnight Eastern time, whereas for the T1-relevant December announcement it went up only in the mid-afternoon of the first of the month? I have no idea if they were having one last meeting or some other perfectly reasonable explanation exists; I just found the difference curious.


So while Drain is distorting, it is uncertain whether it will require action, and fortunately the time to decide again isn’t for another couple of months. I’m practically drooling waiting for the GenCon Top 8 for this reason alone, thanks to the invaluable data it will provide. (If GenCon is huge enough, I’m seriously considering a Top 16 inclusion rather than a Top 8. We shall see how many people show up.)


(3) The Finals Effect

March and April showed a big jump in events compared to previous months, but May slipped a little, which is probably fortunate for Type One players’ grades. You know that time of the year when college students actually *gasp* skip drinking for a couple of nights? Well if they’re not boozin’, they’re certainly not driving several hours for a large Type One tournament. Thus far, June looks like it’s resuming a full schedule of tournaments, and we’re entering convention season, so soon I might even have more than one North American tournament in a month.


(For the record, I don’t do either: booze or road trips. Both are highly overrated, and instead people should be using Star Trek: The Motion Picture as a soporific while enjoying the warm, comforting artificiality of a Hot Pocket. End of sermon.)


(4) Card Totals

Thanks go to Jeek, the Sweater Monkey for his Perl mastery. And of course Stefan Iwasienko a.k.a. Womprax, the morphling.de typing slave.


Missing decklists: 1 R/G Beatz.

73 Island

29 Forest

22 Mountain

7 Swamp

1 Plains


40 Mox Sapphire

39 Ancestral Recall

38 Black Lotus

36 Sol Ring

35 Time Walk

33 Mox Emerald

33 Mox Jet

31 Mox Ruby

30 Strip Mine

27 Mox Pearl

26 Demonic Tutor

23 Library of Alexandria

22 Mystical Tutor

24 Yawgmoth’s Will

20 Mana Crypt

19 Fact or Fiction

19 Vampiric Tutor

12 Mana Vault

12 Mind Twist

11 Tolarian Academy

10 Balance

10 Tinker

8 Lotus Petal

8 Memory Jar

8 Timetwister

7 Gush

6 Necropotence

6 Wheel of Fortune

5 Windfall

5 Yawgmoth’s Bargain

4 Mind’s Desire

2 Chrome Mox

2 Entomb

2 Grim Monolith

2 Lion’s Eye Diamond

1 Black Vise

1 Burning Wish

1 Channel

1 Crop Rotation

1 Demonic Consultation

1 Regrowth

1 Time Spiral


136 Force of Will

104 Brainstorm

102 Wasteland

83 Mana Drain

81 Underground Sea

78 Polluted Delta

75 Volcanic Island

73 Red Elemental Blast

51 Cunning Wish

48 Flooded Strand

48 Tropical Island

45 Chalice of the Void

44 Accumulated Knowledge

42 Duress

42 Fire/Ice – Official WTF of the month. Why doesn’t every deck run this by now?

42 Rack and Ruin

36 Goblin Welder

35 Null Rod

34 Tormod’s Crypt

33 Misdirection

32 Naturalize

32 Wooded Foothills

30 Stifle

29 Blue Elemental Blast

27 Gorilla Shaman

27 Intuition

27 Mishra’s Factory

27 Tundra

26 Taiga

25 Mishra’s Workshop

25 Squee, Goblin Nabob

24 Bazaar of Baghdad

24 Dark Ritual

24 Skeletal Scrying

22 Standstill

21 Psychatog

21 Swords to Plowshares

21 Trinisphere

20 Basking Rootwalla

20 Pernicious Deed

20 Wild Mongrel

19 City of Brass

19 Thirst for Knowledge

18 Blood Moon

18 Deep Analysis

17 Exalted Angel

16 Circular Logic

16 Gemstone Mine

16 Oxidize

16 Quirion Dryad

16 Survival of the Fittest

15 Faerie Conclave

14 Artifact Mutation

14 Flametongue Kavu

13 Chain of Vapor

13 Coffin Purge

13 Pyrostatic Pillar

13 Triskelion

12 Arrogant Wurm

12 Curiosity

12 Hurkyl’s Recall

12 Smokestack

12 Spiketail Hatchling

12 Sword of Fire and Ice

12 Tangle Wire

11 Elvish Spirit Guide

11 Juggernaut

10 Ancient Tomb

10 Daze

10 Decree of Justice

10 Echoing Truth

10 Hydroblast

10 Mindslaver

10 Tendrils of Agony

10 Xantid Swarm

9 Grim Lavamancer

9 Nevinyrral’s Disk

9 Rebuild

8 Cloud of Faeries

8 Disenchant

8 Food Chain

8 Goblin Lackey

8 Goblin Piledriver

8 Goblin Recruiter

8 Goblin Ringleader

8 Metalworker

8 Roar of the Wurm

7 Goblin Warchief

7 Ground Seal

7 Isochron Scepter

7 Karn, Silver Golem

7 Maze of Ith

7 Platinum Angel

7 Pyroblast

7 Viashino Heretic

7 Worldgorger Dragon

6 Animate Dead

6 Careful Study

6 Counterspell

6 Lightning Bolt

6 Necromancy

6 Powder Keg

6 River Boa

6 Sphere of Resistance

6 Wonder

5 Anger

5 Bayou

5 Berserk

5 Damping Matrix

5 Duplicant

5 Goblin Matron

5 Masticore

5 Merchant Scroll

5 Plaguebearer

5 Rushing River

5 Shivan Reef

5 Su-Chi

5 Sylvan Library

4 Academy Rector

4 Aquamoeba

4 Blastoderm

4 Cabal Therapy

4 Chromatic Sphere

4 Dwarven Miner

4 Enlightened Tutor

4 Goblin Charbelcher

4 Goblin Incinerator

4 Hidden Gibbons

4 Kird Ape

4 Land Grant

4 Mogg Fanatic

4 Mogg Salvage

4 Opt

4 Pentavus

4 Petrified Field

4 Siege-Gang Commander

4 Skirk Prospector

4 Smother

4 Solemn Simulacrum

4 Stupefying Touch

4 Tinder Wall

4 Troll Ascetic

4 Tsabo’s Web

4 Verdant Force

4 Viridian Zealot

4 Voidmage Prodigy

3 Ambassador Laquatus

3 Back to Basics

3 Bloodstained Mire

3 Compost

3 Dance of the Dead

3 Defense Grid

3 Diabolic Edict

3 Dismantling Blow

3 Ebony Charm

3 Fiery Temper

3 Gempalm Incinerator

3 Gilded Lotus

3 Impulse

3 Meltdown

3 Ophidian

3 Orim’s Chant

3 Razorfin Hunter

3 Spike Feeder

3 Sundering Titan

3 Viridian Shaman

2 Brain Freeze

2 City of Traitors

2 Compulsion

2 Cursed Scroll

2 Earthquake

2 Echoing Decay

2 Firestorm

2 Flying Men

2 Frantic Search

2 Future Sight

2 Gaea’s Blessing

2 Gilded Drake

2 Goblin Tinkerer

2 Goblin Vandal

2 Living Wish

2 Mind’s Eye

2 Mogg Maniac

2 Morphling

2 Pyrite Spellbomb

2 Root Maze

2 Scrubland[/author]“][author name="Scrubland"]Scrubland[/author]

2 Sigil of Sleep

2 Sleight of Hand

2 Sphere of Law

2 Stormbind

2 Suq’Ata Firewalker

2 Terminate

2 The Abyss

2 Uktabi Orangutan

1 Aura Fracture

1 Badlands

1 Bone Shredder

1 Circle of Protection: Red

1 Control Magic

1 Coretapper

1 Darksteel Colossus

1 Deconstruct

1 Disrupt

1 Elvish Lyrist

1 Ensnare

1 Goblin Sharpshooter

1 Incinerate

1 Lightning Greaves

1 Lim-Dul’s Vault

1 Meditate

1 Memnarch

1 Phyrexian Colossus

1 Phyrexian Negator

1 Plated Slagwurm

1 Quirion Ranger

1 Renounce

1 Rule of Law

1 Scavenger Folk

1 Seal of Cleansing

1 Shadow Rift

1 Shattering Pulse

1 Slice and Dice

1 Snuff Out

1 Sword to Plowshares

1 Teferi’s Response

1 Underground River

1 Wail of the Nim


Philip Stanton

a.k.a.”Dr. Sylvan”, Moderator on TheManaDrain.com

prstanto at uiuc.edu