March Type One Potpourri
First on the menu today: For January, February, and March, I have the complete casting cost breakdown for the winningest Type One decks. Most of this is here to show that I didn’t pull the resulting compiled tables out of nowhere, and of course because my past math teachers would get upset if I didn’t show my work.
January
Artifact (586)
39.8% 233 – 0
6.5% 38 – 1
12.3% 72 – 2
9.4% 55 – 3
14.7% 86 – 4
4.8% 28 – 5
4.3% 25 – 6
1.0% 6 – 7
7.3% 43 – XX
Blue (500)
148 – U
80 – 1U
56 – UU
94 – 2U
1 – 1UU
21 – 3U
2 – 4U
93 – 3UU
2 – 2UUU
1 – 6U
1 – X2U
1 – X1UU
29.6% – 1
27.2% – 2
19.4% – 3
4.2% – 4
19.4% – 5
0.2% – 7
Black (116)
48 – B
23 – 1B
1 – BB
19 – 2B
1 – BBB
2 – 3B
3 – 2BB
4 – 4BB
16 – XB
55.2% – 1
20.7% – 2
17.2% – 3
4.3% – 4
3.5% – 6
Red (423)
179 – R
62 – 1R
1 – RR
115 – 2R
23 – 1RR
25 – 3R
7 – 1RRR
4 – 3RR
3 – 4RR
3 – 3RRR
1 – XR
42.6% – 1
14.9% – 2
32.6% – 3
7.6% – 4
1.0% – 5
1.4% – 6
Green (278)
81 – G
124 – 1G
26 – 2G
3 – 1GG
2 – 3G
29 – 3GG
10 – 6G
3 – 5GGG
29.1% – 1
44.6% – 2
10.4% – 3
0.7% – 4
10.4% – 5
3.6% – 7
1.1% – 8
White (69)
21 – W
21 – 1W
4 – 2W
3 – 3W
2 – 2WW
4 – 4WW
14 – XX2WW
30.4% – 1
30.4% – 2
5.8% – 3
27.5% – 4
5.8% – 6
Gold (73)
13 – RG
4 – UW
39 – 1U/1R
10 – 1GB
2 – 1WB
5 – 1UB
76.7% – 2
23.3% – 3
(Out of 2045)
28.7% 586 Artifact
24.5% 500 Blue
20.7% 423 Red
13.6% 278 Green
5.7% 116 Black
3.6% 73 Gold
3.4% 69 White
February
Artifact (561)
46.9% 263 – 0
8.0% 45 – 1
10.2% 57 – 2
8.6% 48 – 3
11.9% 67 – 4
4.1% 23 – 5
3.0% 17 – 6
1.4% 8 – 7
0.2% 1 – 8
5.9% 33 – XX
Blue (657)
200 – U
99 – 1U
45 – UU
133 – 2U
6 – 1UU
34 – 3U
5 – 4U
121 – 3UU
7 – 2UUU
3 – 4UU
2 – XU
1 – XUU
1 – X2U
30.8% – 1
22.1% – 2
21.3% – 3
5.2% – 4
20.2% – 5
0.5% – 6
Black (204)
111 – B
33 – 1B
20 – 2B
6 – BBB
4 – 3B
12 – 2BB
7 – 4BB
1 – 4BBB
10 – XB
59.3% – 1
16.2% – 2
12.8% – 3
7.8% – 4
3.4% – 6
0.5% – 7
Red (345)
175 – R
36 – 1R
1 – RR
76 – 2R
13 – 1RR
18 – 3R
2 – 1RRR
7 – 3RR
4 – 4RR
7 – 3RRR
1 – 5RR
1 – 4RRR
4 – XR
51.9% – 1
10.7% – 2
25.8% – 3
5.8% – 4
2.0% – 5
3.2% – 6
0.6% – 7
Green (149)
46 – G
76 – 1G
5 – 2G
1 – 1GG
1 – 4G
8 – 3GG
9 – 6G
3 – 5GGG
30.9% – 1
51.0% – 2
4.0% – 3
6.0% – 5
6.0% – 7
2.0% – 8
White (79)
21 – W
29 – 1W
2 – 2W
22 – 3W
5 – XX2WW
26.6% – 1
36.7% – 2
2.5% – 3
34.2% – 4
Gold (99)
11 RG
37 1U/1R
2 GW
4 UB
3 UW
20 1GB
19 1UB
2 2GW
1 WUBRG
57.6% – 2
39.4% – 3
2.0% – 4
1.0% – 5
(Out of 2094)
31.4% 657 blue
26.8% 561 artifact
16.5% 345 red
9.7% 204 black
7.1% 149 green
4.7% 99 gold
3.8% 79 white
March
Artifact (761)
49.0% 373 – 0
15.5% 118 – 1
12.1% 92 – 2
9.2% 70 – 3
10.8% 82 – 4
3.8% 29 – 5
3.4% 26 – 6
1.1% 8 – 7
0.4% 3 – 8
0.1% 1 – 9
0.4% 3 – 11
7.1% 54 – XX
Blue (1079)
347 – U
202 – 1U
95 – UU
163 – 2U
11 – 1UU
37 – 3U
4 – 2UU
10 – 4U
199 – 3UU
5 – 2UUU
3 – 4UU
3 – X2U
32.2% – 1
27.5% – 2
16.4% – 3
3.8% – 4
19.8% – 5
0.3% – 6
Black (390)
186 – B
73 – 1B
58 – 2B
9 – BBB
3 – 3B
14 – 2BB
7 – 4BB
1 – 3BBBB
29 – XB
47.7% – 1
18.7% – 2
17.2% – 3
4.4% – 4
1.8% – 6
0.3% – 7
Red (628)
279 – R
92 – 1R
6 – RR
157 – 2R
15 – 1RR
27 – 3R
3 – 1RRR
6 – 3RR
13 – 4RR
20 – 3RRR
1 – 5RR
8 – XR
1 – XRR
45.7% – 1
15.8% – 2
27.4% – 3
4.8% – 4
1.0% – 5
5.3% – 6
0.2% – 7
Green (470)
143 – G
191 – 1G
7 – GG
59 – 2G
31 – 1GG
2 – 3G
11 – 2GG
12 – 3GG
1 – 3GGG
3 – 6G
9 – 5GGG
1 – XG
30.6% – 1
42.1% – 2
19.2% – 3
2.8% – 4
2.6% – 5
0.2% – 6
0.6% – 7
1.9% – 8
White (217)
73 – W
56 – 1W
12 – WW
8 – 2W
6 – 1WW
27 – 3W
8 – 2WW
9 – 4WW
18 – XX2WW
33.6% – 1
31.3% – 2
6.5% – 3
24.4% – 4
4.2% – 6
Gold (149)
23 – RG
1 – UB
21 – WU
34 – 1U / 1R
27 – 1BG
27 – 1UB
2 – 1WB
6 – 2WG
4 – 1GUU
2 – 3WG
1 – WUBRG
1 – 5WG
53.0% – 2
37.6% – 3
6.7% – 4
2.0% – 5
0.7% – 7
(Out of 3694)
29.2% 1079 Blue
20.6% 761 Artifact
17.0% 628 Red
12.7% 470 Green
10.6% 390 Black
5.9% 217 White
4.0% 149 Gold
The Part That You All Actually Want
In order for the average casting cost to make sense, first you need to see what proportion of the card pool each color was.
Color Prevalence
JAN, FEB, MAR
28.7, 26.8, 20.6 Artifact
24.5, 31.4, 29.2 Blue
_5.7, _9.7, 10.6 Black
20.7, 16.5, 17.0 Red
13.6, _7.1, 12.7 Green
_3.4, _3.8, _5.9 White
_3.6, _4.7, _4.0 Gold
In some freakish way, artifacts are in serious decline. I blame it on the resurgence of very Red decks like Food Chain Goblins. (The Red portion is even higher for January thanks to the wave of aggro decks that month.) It’s hard to identify trends over just three months, especially when White gets a fluke boost like that 6th place Dulmen finish for White Weenie, but this yields about what we’d expect. Green’s popping up and down, but I expect it to become more stable soon.
Average Casting Costs
JAN, FEB, MAR
1.75, 1.28, 1.66 Artifact
2.70, 2.64, 2.52 Blue
1.86, 1.85, 1.67 Black
2.14, 2.07, 2.17 Red
2.38, 2.33, 2.17 Green
2.53, 2.44, 2.39 White
2.23, 2.46, 2.61 Gold
2.16, 2.36, 2.15 All
In a bizarre twist of numbers, every category had a lower average in February than January, yet the average was higher because Blue expanded to be nearly a third of all spells. The Blue average is dragged up significantly by cards like Force of Will, whose alternate casting costs are not represented by this analysis. The overall average is (very) roughly balanced by the counterweight of abundant zero-cost artifacts, but each color experiences distortion upward depending on how many ACC spells were played.
Speaking of ACC spells, here’s March’s count of that.
90.9% – 3358 mana casting cost only (including oddities such as Elvish Spirit Guide)
7.6% – 280 ACC (includes cycling-triggers but not regular cycling)
1.5% – 56 additional nonmana cost (includes Imprint but not Flashback)
This is slightly more mana-only and additional-cost spells proportional to February.
(Out of 376)
18.9% – 71 artifact card names
18.6% – 70 blue card names
17.0% – 64 green card names
16.0% – 60 red card names
9.0% – 34 nonbasic land card names
8.8% – 33 white card names
8.0% – 30 black card names
3.7% – 14 gold card names
This is a full 109 more card names than occurred in February, with the gain for each color included in parentheses. Keep in mind that the March data set had nine tournaments to February’s five. Obviously as time goes on, there are ever more cards played due to new sets, but I’m curious what the limit is to how many cards will be played from the same card pool, given enough tournaments to explore all the options.
March Card Appearances By Expansion
(Out of 3694)
33.8% – 1248 Alpha/Beta/Unlimited (excluding 206 basics, 6 snow-covered basics)
10.3% – 382 Onslaught
6.9% – 253 Tempest
6.5% – 241 Alliances
5.6% – 208 Urza’s Saga
5.1% – 190 Ice Age
4.9% – 182 Mirrodin
4.9% – 179 Urza’s Legacy
4.8% – 178 Odyssey
4.2% – 156 Scourge
4.1% – 153 Antiquities
3.1% – 114 Judgment
3.0% – 111 Legends
2.8% – 103 The Dark
2.7% – 99 Mercadian Masques
2.6% – 96 Nemesis
2.4% – 88 Arabian Nights
2.3% – 86 Darksteel
2.3% – 85 Exodus
2.2% – 81 Urza’s Destiny
2.2% – 80 Apocalypse
2.1% – 79 Visions
2.1% – 79 Invasion
1.8% – 66 Weatherlight
1.8% – 65 Torment
1.6% – 59 Mirage
1.4% – 53 Planeshift
0.7% – 27 Promos
0.6% – 21 Stronghold
0.4% – 13 Prophecy
0.3% – 12 Legions
0.1% – 5 Homelands
0.1% – 4 Fallen Empires
0.0% – 2 Portal
Alpha’s neverending brokenness is actually increasing its share of the card pool. (Previously it’s fallen between 23% and 28% of cards.)
Finally, there is the assortment of cards by expansion.
Alpha/Beta/Unlimited
103 Underground Sea
77 Red Elemental Blast
67 Tropical Island
65 Volcanic Island
51 Black Lotus
48 Sol Ring
48 Swords to Plowshares
47 Ancestral Recall
47 Mox Sapphire
46 Mox Emerald
46 Taiga
43 Mox Jet
41 Time Walk
39 Mox Ruby
37 Tundra
36 Dark Ritual
36 Demonic Tutor
34 Blue Elemental Blast
34 Mox Pearl
22 Animate Dead
22 Lightning Bolt
20 Juggernaut
18 Disenchant
17 Bayou
16 Mana Vault
16 Mind Twist
15 Wheel of Fortune
14 Balance
14 Birds of Paradise
11 Timetwister
10 Berserk
10 Scrubland[/author]“][author name="Scrubland"]Scrubland[/author]
9 Savannah
8 Llanowar Elves
8 Regrowth
7 Circle of Protection: Red
7 Illusionary Mask
7 Nevinyrral’s Disk
5 Badlands
4 Ankh of Mishra
4 Counterspell
4 Ice Storm
4 Savannah Lions
4 White Knight
3 Earthquake
3 Karma
3 Terror
2 Armageddon
2 Channel
2 Crusade
2 Fastbond
2 Fork
2 Lifeforce
1 Black Vise
1 Circle of Protection: Black
1 Hurricane
1 Jayemdae Tome
Arabian Nights
32 Bazaar of Baghdad
26 Library of Alexandria
17 City of Brass
4 Flying Men
4 Kird Ape
3 Serendib Efreet
2 Drop of Honey
Antiquities
40 Mishra’s Factory
38 Mishra’s Workshop
38 Strip Mine
14 Hurkyl’s Recall
14 Triskelion
6 Su-Chi
3 Energy Flux
The Dark
58 Tormod’s Crypt
38 Blood Moon
5 Maze of Ith
2 Scavenger Folk
Legends
88 Mana Drain
12 Chain Lightning
4 Land Tax
3 Moat
3 The Abyss
1 Sylvan Library
Fallen Empires
4 Goblin Grenade
Ice Age
114 Brainstorm
12 Incinerate
12 Pyroblast
9 Necropotence
8 Tinder Wall
5 Dance of the Dead
4 Fyndhorn Elves
4 Hydroblast
4 Thermokarst
3 Demonic Consultation
3 Karplusan Forest
3 Pyroclasm
2 Illusions of Grandeur
2 Jester’s Cap
2 Magus of the Unseen
2 Zuran Orb
1 Underground River
Homelands
5 Merchant Scroll
Alliances
164 Force of Will
33 Gorilla Shaman
27 Elvish Spirit Guide
8 Pyrokinesis
4 Diminishing Returns
4 Pillage
1 Lim-Dul’s Vault
Mirage
26 Mystical Tutor
8 Enlightened Tutor
8 Phyrexian Dreadnought
5 Ebony Charm
4 Wall of Roots
3 Lion’s Eye Diamond
3 Suq’Ata Firewalker
1 Goblin Tinkerer
1 Kaervek’s Torch
Visions
25 Vampiric Tutor
15 River Boa
12 Goblin Recruiter
11 Necromancy
5 Uktabi Orangutan
4 Natural Order
3 Quirion Ranger
2 Creeping Mold
2 Fireblast
Weatherlight
25 Gemstone Mine
23 Null Rod
4 Gaea’s Blessing
4 Goblin Vandal
4 Ophidian
3 Aura of Silence
3 Firestorm
Tempest
116 Wasteland
29 Intuition
17 Lotus Petal
15 Cursed Scroll
14 Ancient Tomb
12 Jackal Pup
12 Root Maze
9 Verdant Force
8 Mogg Fanatic
6 Chill
5 Diabolic Edict
3 Meditate
2 Humility
2 Light of Day
2 Mirri’s Guile
1 Winter’s Grasp
Stronghold
4 Mogg Flunkies
4 Volrath’s Shapeshifter
3 Ensnaring Bridge
3 Mana Leak
3 Spike Feeder
2 Mox Diamond
1 Sacred Ground
1 Sliver Queen
Exodus
24 Survival of the Fittest
16 Curiosity
15 Sphere of Resistance
10 Price of Progress
7 Shattering Pulse
4 Oath of Druids
3 City of Traitors
2 Skyshroud Elite
2 Spike Weaver
1 Reclaim
1 Scrivener
Urza’s Saga
65 Duress
27 Yawgmoth’s Will
15 Tolarian Academy
12 Goblin Lackey
12 Smokestack
8 Goblin Cadets
8 Goblin Matron
6 Karn, Silver Golem
5 Annul
5 Morphling
5 Windfall
4 Grafted Skullcap
4 Meltdown
4 Scald
4 Worship
3 Back to Basics
3 Stroke of Genius
3 Glorious Anthem
2 Carpet of Flowers
2 Elvish Lyrist
2 Gamble
2 Gilded Drake
2 Hidden Guerrillas
2 Planar Void
1 Arcane Laboratory
1 Hibernation
1 Shivan Hellkite
Urza’s Legacy
48 Rack and Ruin
43 Goblin Welder
15 Memory Jar
14 Faerie Conclave
12 Cloud of Faeries
10 Tinker
7 Rebuild
4 Grim Monolith
4 Hidden Gibbons
4 Mother of Runes
3 Defense Grid
3 Engineered Plague
3 Frantic Search
1 Crop Rotation
3 Treetop Village
2 Bone Shredder
2 Rancor
1 Viashino Heretic
Urza’s Destiny
16 Metalworker
15 Academy Rector
15 Phyrexian Negator
15 Powder Keg
7 Yawgmoth’s Bargain
5 Masticore
4 Sigil of Sleep
2 Caltrops
2 Donate
Mercadian Masques
35 Squee, Goblin Nabob
30 Misdirection
12 Food Chain
9 Gush
8 Land Grant
3 Rishadan Port
1 Devout Witness
1 Pulverize
Nemesis
44 Accumulated Knowledge
21 Tangle Wire
15 Seal of Cleansing
12 Daze
4 Rootwater Thief
Prophecy
12 Spiketail Hatchling
1 Aura Fracture
Invasion
22 Artifact Mutation
18 Fact or Fiction
11 Chromatic Sphere
7 Opt
5 Teferi’s Response
4 Blurred Mongoose
4 Dismantling Blow
4 Urza’s Rage
3 Overload
1 Tsabo’s Web
Planeshift
21 Meddling Mage
11 Flametongue Kavu
8 Rushing River
7 Quirion Dryad
5 Orim’s Chant
1 Hull Breach
Apocalypse
34 Fire / Ice
27 Pernicious Deed
12 Goblin Ringleader
4 Mystic Snake
2 Vindicate
1 Yavimaya Coast
Odyssey
27 Standstill
24 Psychatog
23 Coffin Purge
19 Ground Seal
16 Wild Mongrel
13 Skeletal Scrying
9 Call of the Herd
7 Werebear
6 Mystic Enforcer
4 Aether Burst
4 Barbarian Ring
4 Reckless Charge
4 Sphere of Law
3 Careful Study
3 Roar of the Wurm
3 Shadowmage Infiltrator
3 Terravore
2 Entomb
2 Moment’s Peace
1 Divert
1 Druid Lyrist
Torment
16 Basking Rootwalla
15 Deep Analysis
12 Arrogant Wurm
8 Grim Lavamancer
6 Compulsion
4 Ambassador Laquatus
4 Circular Logic
Judgment
54 Cunning Wish
20 Worldgorger Dragon
19 Cabal Therapy
5 Burning Wish
4 Anger
4 Living Wish
2 Lava Dart
2 Mirari’s Wake
2 Wonder
1 Phantom Nishoba
1 Sylvan Safekeeper
Onslaught
88 Polluted Delta
74 Flooded Strand
62 Naturalize
51 Wooded Foothills
21 Chain of Vapor
16 Goblin Piledriver
16 Windswept Heath
10 Bloodstained Mire
9 Exalted Angel
9 Smother
6 Skirk Prospector
5 Future Sight
3 Blistering Firecat
3 Ravenous Baloth
3 Voidmage Prodigy
2 Goblin Sharpshooter
2 Slice and Dice
1 Silvos, Rogue Elemental
1 Starstorm
Legions
6 Gempalm Incinerator
4 Silver Knight
1 Phage the Untouchable
1 Voidmage Apprentice
Scourge
59 Stifle
25 Xantid Swarm
18 Decree of Justice
18 Pyrostatic Pillar
14 Tendrils of Agony
11 Goblin Warchief
6 Siege-Gang Commander
3 Mind’s Desire
2 Forgotten Ancient
Mirrodin
54 Chalice of the Void
20 Troll Ascetic
12 Damping Matrix
12 Thirst for Knowledge
9 Mindslaver
8 Goblin Charbelcher
6 Glimmervoid
5 Lightning Greaves
5 Platinum Angel
5 Solemn Simulacrum
4 Chrome Mox
4 Disciple of the Vault
4 Mind’s Eye
4 Pyrite Spellbomb
4 Scrabbling Claws
4 Slith Firewalker
3 Duplicant
3 Gilded Lotus
3 Isochron Scepter
3 Pentavus
2 Deconstruct
2 Leonin Skyhunter
2 Spoils of the Vault
2 Rule of Law
1 Elf Replica
Darksteel
19 Oxidize
10 Trinisphere
7 Arcbound Crusher
6 Arcbound Ravager
6 Geth’s Grimoire
5 Sword of Fire and Ice
4 Aether Vial
4 Arcbound Worker
4 Skullclamp
3 Darksteel Colossus
3 Echoing Decay
3 Genesis Chamber
3 Myr Moonvessel
3 Sundering Titan
3 Viridian Zealot
2 Echoing Truth
1 Forge[/author]“]Darksteel [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author]
1 Panoptic Mirror
Portal
2 Sleight of Hand
Promos
27 Mana Crypt
And the related percent of each set’s card names that appeared.
March
19.9% – 57/287 Alpha/Beta/Unlimited
12.6% – 18/143 Urza’s Legacy
10.9% – 18/165 Darksteel
9.0% – 7/78 Arabian Nights
8.7% – 25/286 Mirrodin
8.2% – 7/85 Antiquities
8.2% – 27/330 Urza’s Saga
7.7% – 11/143 Exodus
7.7% – 11/143 Judgment
6.4% – 21/330 Odyssey
6.3% – 9/143 Urza’s Destiny
6.3% – 9/143 Scourge
5.8% – 19/330 Onslaught
5.6% – 8/143 Stronghold
5.4% – 9/167 Visions
4.9% – 7/144 Alliances
4.9% – 16/330 Tempest
4.9% – 7/143 Torment
4.7% – 17/363 Ice Age
4.2% – 7/167 Weatherlight
4.2% – 6/143 Planeshift
4.2% – 6/143 Apocalypse
3.5% – 5/143 Nemesis
3.4% – 4/119 The Dark
3.0% – 10/330 Invasion
2.8% – 4/143 Legions
2.7% – 9/330 Mirage
2.4% – 8/330 Mercadian Masques
1.9% – 6/310 Legends
1.4% – 2/143 Prophecy
1.0% – 1/101 Fallen Empires
0.9% – 1/115 Homelands
In what can only be described as the upset victory of the month, Darksteel is the most useful set to the format since Urza block.
That’s all I’ve got… for now. Next week: The Hulk Breakdown! *cue Imperial March*
Philip Stanton
a.k.a.”Dr. Sylvan”
prstanto at uiuc.edu