Hello everyone, and welcome to the first weekly edition of Insider Trading! The column title comes from Pete Hoefling occasional trading column on this here website, and I’ve taken on the name with full blessings from Pete. My name is Ben Bleiweiss, and I’m the General Manager of Acquisitions and Inventory at StarCityGames.com. I’ve been with SCG.com for six years now, and my job entails buying, selling, and pricing the inventory for StarCityGames.com, including all of the singles.
What can you expect out of the Insider Trading column? There’s going to be a lot of discussion about the financials of Magic – what cards are rising in value, what cards are dropping in value, and why these changes are happening. However, I think it’d quickly become boring if all I covered was, in essence, ‘What’s hot and what’s not!’ Other articles in this column will include discussions of the value of rarities and foreign cards, examination of promotional cards, and explanations of how the industry works from the inside. For instance, in next week’s article, I’ll break down Shards of Alara (and 11th Edition) and explain exactly what the Mythic rarity means to the value of Magic cards.
I’m getting ahead of myself – this week, we’re going to take a look at the cards from Coldsnap, Time Spiral, Planar Chaos, and Future Sight. U.S. Nationals is just around the corner (August 1st-3rd, with grinders beforehand), and this is the last Hurrah for Time Spiral Block in Standard. There will be frenetic tech upgrades during the grinders (last year, Edge of Autumn was trading at $2-$3 on the floor, as people desperately tried to find them for grinders; Yavimaya Barbarian once went for $5), but after the grinders and main tournament are over, Standard, as we know it, is pretty much done. They’ll be a couple of months of Friday Night Magic, but no really major Standard events before Shards of Alara rotates in, taking out Time Spiral block entirely.
Standard drives a lot of the card prices in Magic, but there is a large influence from older formats – Extended, Legacy, and Vintage. As cards rotate out of Standard, some lose their luster (as they are not played in the older formats), and just as many keep their Standard-level prices, some even rising a little if they are particularly suited for older gameplay. The trick is in separating out the chaff from the keepers. Below, I go through each rotating set and highlight the cards that I believe will maintain their post-rotation value, and point out which cards you should try to trade away now, before the rotation causes them to depreciate.
Coldsnap
Keep:
Counterbalance: The value of Counterbalance is predicated on the existence of Sensei’s Divining Top. In short, it holds value because of the older formats (especially Counter-Top in Extended), and should be wholly unaffected by rotation.
Jotun Grunt: Primarily driven in value due to Legacy and Vintage play, so should also be unaffected by rotation.
Rite of Flame: Excellent mana acceleration that will find a place in potential Red-based future combo decks. Unique in what it does for the cost, so there is no other replacement effect for this in Extended.
Trade Away:
Adarkar Valkyrie: Never quite lived up to the hype, but popular with casual players because it is an Angel. Shouldn’t drop too much in value, but will depreciate slightly.
Anything Snow-Covered (Arctic Flats, Boreal Shelf, Coldsteel Heart, Frost Marsh, Highland Weald, Mouth of Ronom, Phyrexian Ironfoot, Scrying Sheets, Skred, Tresserhorn Sinks): Unless Wizards continues the Snow-covered theme in future sets (which is unlikely), these cards aren’t powerful enough to hold up against strategies in Extended, much less Legacy or Vintage. The lone exception are Snow-Covered lands, which are often played as one-ofs in decks with Gifts Ungiven – but one out of 16-20 Snow-Basics will not make your entire deck’s worth hold value.
Haakon, Stromgald Scourge: Will hold some value due to casual play.
Juniper Order Ranger: The persist tricks with Juniper Order Ranger are likely too slow for Standard. With that said, this was a fairly popular card with casual players before it became part of an infinite combo. They will still have trade value, but not much of a premium outside of any other lower-level desirable Uncommon.
Ohran Viper: Disappointing. Did this ever live up to the hype? Cold-Eyed Selkie will make people forget that Ohran Viper existed, since the Selkie can connect a lot more often than Ohran Viper.
Rune Snag: Fantastic in Standard once Mana Leak and Remand rotated, since it was the best two-cost Counterspell left in the format. Not quite as good in Extended, since those two aforementioned spells are going to be around for a long, long time (9th Edition and Ravnica)
Keep:
Academy Ruins: Part of the Urzatron decks, which won’t rotate until 9th Edition rotates, which is years down the road.
Akroma, Angel of Wrath: Popular with Casual players. When this was first reprinted, it dropped a little in value since the market had a sudden influx of copies (aside from the Legions one). It slowly regained value over the past two years. I see Akroma as being rotation-proof, as it’s one of the most iconic creatures in Magic, and has value driven by casual play and not competitive play.
Browbeat: Red players love this card. It’ll stay in the $4-$5 range after it rotates, as it was there before it got reprinted in Time Spiral.
Dread Return: Value driven by Vintage and Legacy right now, so should maintain value.
Flagstones of Trokair: There’s only one more year of Fetchlands in Extended, and then they rotate out. Barring Wizards reprinting them (or printing enemy-colored Fetchlands), Flagstones will be one of the usable ways in Extended to fetch the color of mana you want, when you want it.
Gemstone Mine: Replacement for Archeological Dig in Storm decks. Combos fantastically with Reflecting Pool. It has dropped a little in value already due to Vivid Lands, but it shouldn’t fall too much further because of rotation.
Greater Gargadon: Unique in what it does, and one of the best sacrifice outlets in Magic’s history. This will have a place in Extended, and threatens to be usable in Legacy and Vintage, depending on what comes out in the future.
Krosan Grip: Kills Sensei’s Divining Top, which is more than can be said for almost any other card with this effect. Will hold value as a sideboard card in Extended.
Lotus Bloom: As long as there are storm and combo decks, Lotus Bloom will be a part of Extended.
Rift Bolt: Efficient Burn, and popular with casual players.
Serra Avenger: This is both a popular casual card, and a potential playable in the new Extended. Should maintain its value.
Shadowmage Infiltrator: I thought this card was going to double in value when it got reprinted in Time Spiral, but it only had a $1-$2 bump once it was Standard Legal a second time around. This means that the card A) should have about the same value once it rotates, and B) wasn’t as good as I thought.
Smallpox: Playable in Extended, especially now that Innocent Blood is on the way out.
Stuffy Doll: Demand driven by casual players, so it should stay where it is in value. See also: Doubling Season, Glimpse the Unthinkable, Forge[/author]“]Darksteel [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author].
Tormod’s Crypt: One of the best graveyard hosers ever printed, and played in every format in Magic. I don’t see this changing once it rotates.
Trickbind: Pick these up now – there is only one year left of Scourge, and then Trickbind is the new Stifle. These will rise sharply in value once Onslaught Block rotates out of Extended next set rotation.
Vesuva: Great with Cloudpost and Urza Lands, not so great in Standard. Since its price is based on Extended as-is, should stay the same in value.
Wall of Roots: This will probably dip slightly, but it is a fantastic anti-aggro card for Extended, saw play there last season, and should continue to see play there.
Trade Away:
Ancestral Vision: These will still be played in Extended, but not to the degree that it has gone nuts in value thanks to Faeries the past few months. Trade these away now, and then pick them back up when the drop in price around October.
Avalanche Riders: Not played in traditional Extended at this point.
Bad Moon: Should maintain some value due to casual play, but at a slightly lower clip than it’s going for now.
Bogardan Hellkite: Unless Dragonstorm hits it big in Extended, this guy is going to drop in value, probably to about 2/3rds his current price.
Call of the Herd: Call of the Herd has been in a freefall for months now – it’s not interesting to casual players, and hasn’t been played by competitive ones.
Desert: Should see some play in Extended, but not as much as it did in Standard
Dragonstorm: Dragonstorm will drop in value, but there is always a chance (and not a bad one, to be honest) that Dragonstorm decks will finally be competitively playable in Extended. If you’re a fan of Dragonstorm, I would probably hold onto all my Dragonstorm cards (including the Hellkite, above), because there’s a realistic chance they will be played, and maintain (and even rise) in value.
Lightning Angel: Will settle in the $2.50-$3 range due to casual interest.
Lord of Atlantis: This guy’s value is being driven entirely by Standard Merfolk. I don’t believe this deck ports over the Extended well, so once he rotates out of Standard, he’s going to drop a lot in value. However, he will probably be one of the most sought-after cards at Nationals!
Mystic Enforcer: Casual play, but Threshold decks have just rotated out of Extended thanks to the imminent disappearance of Odyssey Block. No Mental Note, no Nimble Mongoose, no Careful Consideration.
Mystic Snake: Popular with casual players, but might be forgotten as there have been other creatures printed since with this effect (Draining Whelk, Venser).
Pendelhaven: I think that this will be played to some degree in Extended, but not as much as it has been in Standard, so it will depreciate a little in value.
Psionic Blast: See Char.
Soltari Priest: Traditionally, Protection from Red creatures have held value in Extended as a foil to Red Deck Wins/Sligh/Goblins (see Silver Knight). However, this is predicated on these creatures being able to block. Soltari Priest can’t, so it probably won’t see much play (unless you go nuts with Jitte, but that will probably be a role more for Burrenton Forge-Tender).
Spectral Force: This guy is freaking huge, and completely disappeared from Standard over the past few months. If he can’t cut it in Standard as a freaking huge dude, I don’t think he’ll be cutting it in Extended.
Squall Line: Great anti-Faeries tech. Not as great once Faeries isn’t the deck to beat in your entire format.
Stonewood Invocation: Will fall into the range of Might of Oaks, and be popular with casual players, but forgotten by tournament players.
Sudden Spoiling: A great Standard combat trick, but not as good when 2/3rds of the decks in your format are combo or heavy control. Will fall in value when it’s out of creature-heavy Standard.
Sulfurous Blast: Already being replaced by Firespout in Standard. Too expensive for Extended.
Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir: See Meloku the Clouded Mirror to see where five-mana Legends that are powerful in Standard but too slow for older formats go to die.
The Rack: Will be popular as it is essential in any casual discard deck, but not tournament competitive.
Vesuvan Shapeshifter: Again, popular with Casual players, but Pickles isn’t an Extended-worthy deck.
Keep:
Akroma, Angel of Fury: Same as the other Akroma, above – and in fact, may rise in value over time as they are soaked out of circulation and come in demand by casual players.
Body Double: As long as Reveillark is played in other format, Body Double will be played too.
Extirpate: Will drop slightly in value, but it is played in virtually every format as an excellent graveyard-removal spell. Should continue to see play as long as Dredge exists in older formats.
Fatal Frenzy: Becoming a part of Affinity decks in Extended.
Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth: Another unique mana-fixing effect that will find a place not only in older formats, but casual decks everywhere.
Trade Away:
Aeon Chronicler: May see play in Tron decks, but hasn’t really been played in a while.
Damnation: This one is tricky. There’s one thought that Damnation will be reprinted in 11th, and Wrath will rotate out. If this happens, Damnation will maintain its current value. If not, it’ll probably hit the $10-$12.50 range.
Gaea’s Anthem: Will drop slightly, but it’s Glorious Anthem for Green, and Glorious Anthem is a big casual card.
Groundbreaker: Never really caught on, but I think that it may one day undergo a renaissance as casual players flock to it because, ironically, it is a really cheap Ball Lightning.
Harmonize: See Concentrate. Concentrate was big in Standard but never made it in Extended. This might see some Extended play because Fact or Fiction is going and people like The Rock, but it’ll see nowhere near the level of play it saw in Standard.
Keep:
Akroma’s Memorial: It’s good to be an Akroma card, because you maintain value!
Bridge from Below: Played in Vintage, Extended, and Legacy.
Epochrasite: I think that Epochrasite has a place in the new Extended as an anti-Aggro card. Also, I’m semi-surprised this hasn’t seen play in older formats in Welder decks.
Glittering Wish: With all of the other Wishes rotating out of Extended, Glittering Wish is the last mana-efficient sideboard-fetching card left. White/Green has traditionally been a popular Extended deck, so this could be a straight replacement for Living Wish in those decks.
Grove of the Burnwillows: A unique effect (forcing your opponent to gain life) that could have potential applications in the future depending on what cards are printed. Also popular with casual players.
Horizon Canopy: A great land for Aggro decks, of which there are quite a few in Extended.
Magus of the Moon: This may very well be one of the top ten cards in Standard, and extremely popular in Vintage. Blood Moon is occasionally played in Extended, and should be even more played now that Destructive Flow is disappearing. Magus of the Moon will see Extended play.
Pact of Negation: Value driven by Vintage and Legacy, so should maintain its worth.
Pyromancer’s Swath: Storm combo card, should maintain value.
Slaughter Pact: Mana-efficient removal spell, and should see some play in Extended as an anti-aggro card.
Sliver Legion: See Sliver Overlord, Sliver Queen. Sliver lords not only maintain value, but jump sharply as each new batch of Slivers are printed.
Summoner’s Pact: Relevant in older formats.
Trade Away:
Coalition Relic: Not efficient with the sheer number of two-drop artifacts there are in Extended.
Korlash, Heir to Blackblade: Will be popular with casual players (see Ink-Eyes), but not as played in tournaments.
Molten Disaster: Too slow for Extended mass-removal.
Nimbus Maze: There are better choices for W/U lands in Extended.
River of Tears: And there are also better choices for U/B lands.
Tarmogoyf: Yup, this is the card you wanted to know about! Tarmogoyf will drop in value, but it’s not going to be a free-fall – he is already being played in Legacy, Vintage, and, of course, Extended. He just won’t be in as much demand, since Standard is the primary competitive format that drives sales. I expect Tarmogoyf to settle in the $25 range once it rotates, and to stay there.
Venser, Shaper Savant: May see some play in Extended, but probably too slow for that format. Will be popular in casual because man oh man, do casual players love their Blink decks! (See the rise in the number of Blink effects Wizards has printed the last few sets, thanks to the popularity of Momentary Blink itself).
…
See you next week, when you get my take on the impact of Shards of Alara, and Mythic rares!
Ben