You want to become a better player? What better way to learn than to see the analyzing processes of players better than you? I’m blatantly stea… err… flattering — yes, flattering —Â Knut, by using his spiffy article format. The concept is quite simple. I’ve joked before that when I play Control Slaver I “just do whatever Rich Shay would do.” This led to the idea of actually asking what he was thinking at a given moment. So, I’ll be presenting play scenarios and then asking some solid technical Vintage players what they’d do.
In some Vintage matches you have somewhere around infinity options, so you’d assume that someone would’ve already done this. Go figure.
Our players contributing today will be Rich Shay (The Atog Lord), Chris Browne (Demonic Attorney), Peter Olszewski (DicemanX), and myself (who you’re not reading this article for, but tough nuts).
Our first scenario is as follows:
Game 1, On the play.
You are playing Control Slaver (the only notable difference from a normal list is you have a Rack and Ruin maindeck over Slaver #2)
Your opponent is playing Gifts of some variety
On turn 1, you played Volcanic Island and cast Goblin Welder. The Gifts player countered this with Force of Will, removing Thirst for Knowledge from the game.
On turn 2, you played an Island and said go.
By the end of the opponent’s second turn, he has played Polluted Delta, Island, Mox Pearl and Mox Jet (both Moxen on his second turn) and has otherwise not cast anything except Fore of Will.
On turn 3 you drop Flooded Strand into play.
Your hand consists of: Fact or Fiction, Mox Ruby, Goblin Welder, Rack and Ruin, and Mana Drain.
Your opponent has three cards remaining in hand and a total of UUWB open.
Question #1: What play do you think gives you the maximum reward, if unimpeded?
Question #2: What do you think the correct play is?
Question #3: Why is this the right play?
Question #4: Would knowing your opponent having Mana Drain in hand change your play?
Peter Olszewski:
OK, this game has an unusual start – Force of Will on Welder pitching a very castable Thirst for Knowledge, given that the Gifts player threw down two Moxes. He could have drawn them over the next two turns, but even if there was just one Mox in hand that puts Thirst for Knowledge up on turn 2. Something fishy is going on here – either the Gifts player is being too paranoid and made a bad decision, or he has a specific beatdown plan in mind (Tinker for Darksteel Colossus). Given that he tossed a Thirst and played out his Moxes, if he’s a good player (Force of Will decision notwithstanding) I’d wager he has at least a Gifts Ungiven (maybe Fact or Fiction) in hand, and probably either a Force of Will or Mana Drain (given his unusual first turn Force play). I’d also wager he has few, if any, Pithing Needles in the deck, which means that playing a Welder early won’t have any repercussions, as far as presenting Needle targets and losing a chance to maximize Brainstorm/Thirst (with no artifacts to pitch).
But the real issue is whether we play the Mox and represent the Fact or Fiction, or whether to hold on to the Mox and just play the Welder. Since we will not be casting Fact or Fiction at his end of turn step (it’s senseless to walk into Drain without a secondary threat), the issue is if we are prepared to Fact or Fiction if he taps out for a Gifts – or if he casts a Brainstorm (or “mistakenly” fetches at end of turn) – or if we elect to hold on to Fact or Fiction for the time being and Mana Drain a Gifts instead. If it’s the latter, then the right call is to play the Welder, as that will make Fact or Fiction more powerful down the line. In fact, this might be critical – getting a Welder in play will turn the Fact or Fiction into a potential beatdown tool, since casting it might produce a Mindslaver or Titan with dire consequences, unless there’s a 4-1 or 5-0 split given with the critical artifact in the big pile.
So deciding to Fact or Fiction in response to Gifts might be a little risky, because you’re using it for control purposes for the time being – gain card advantage in the hope of controlling your opponent after he (hopefully) passes the turn, and looking to establish your beatdown down the line instead. Its going to be much harder to use Fact or Fiction for this control purpose, because he will get to decide on how to split the piles and control to an extent what spells you have access to, and will respond with the appropriate Gifts immediately after. This is one area that puts Control Slaver at a disadvantage over Gifts — Control Slaver is simply the slower beatdown deck on average, so any gains in card advantage might result in a big handful of nothing if Gifts can win the game before your hand starts to matter. Therefore if you play that Mox and end up passing on an opportunity to Fact or Fiction, you might have just decreased the strength of that Thirst or Brainstorm that you might end up drawing.
If they play Brainstorm, there’s a similar element of risk, except you limit what they can do on their turn. You can play Fact or Fiction in response, but if their Brainstorm resolves and they elect to cast Gifts on their turn (if your Fact or Fiction was weak) you again might find yourself in a world of hurt.
Because of this, I would play the Welder and pass with the Mox still in hand. That way I’m focused on setting up beatdown plays, which will be critical in limiting the kinds of “end of turn” plays the Gifts player will attempt. This is because a Welder can always represent a Mindslaver or Titan, via Fact or Fiction or Thirst, which can limit the Gifts player from taking on the aggressive beatdown role and make aggressive end of turn plays. Though it might make sense to play Welder and the Mox to represent the Thirst and discourage the end of turn Gifts. The problem is that even if the Gifts player recognizes your mana represents a potential Thirst, he might still test the waters with end of turn Gifts Ungiven – if I Drain, he might even elect not to do anything on his turn and keep Mana Drain mana up (or play a mana source and have Force of Will up) for my (non existent) Thirst. In that case, I “wasted” a Mox by not saving it for Brainstorm/Thirst if it *does* end up limiting my options. It might not matter, but why play the Mox if you don’t have to? Basically, the bluff at this stage – by laying a Mox and representing a Thirst – doesn’t do much, because if the Gifts player was ready to test with an end of turn Gifts Ungiven, he would most likely do so regardless.
So, play Welder, pass, and after opponent passes back (whether he does anything or not) our Fact or Fiction has now gained in value, and I would play the fourth mana source (probably that Mox) and enjoy hanging a beatdown threat over my opponents head. Then once I draw into another Draw spell (Thirst for instance), I can engage in baiting end of turn.
If my opponent Mana Drains the Welder, then I’m also pleased about my position. He probably has one action spell left (a Gifts Ungiven, for example) and I have both a Drain and that Fact or Fiction. I can even entertain ideas of Draining back and hoping that the Fact or Fiction will produce the desired brokenness and/or feed my Welder on my next main phase, because his main phase Gifts/business spell (to take advantage of me being tapped out) will not be very strong. He will Mana Short himself and have to pass the turn, and I will have two mana floating on mine with a “discard” spell in hand and an active Welder in play.
…
Olszewski’ optimal play ended up being to cast the Goblin Welder, but leaving Mox Ruby in hand to maximize future draws and bluffing.
Chris Browne:
Question #1: What play do you think gives you the maximum reward, if unimpeded?
In the control mirror, it’s best to focus on maximizing long-term rewards. The game will likely continue for a decent while, so you want to look to the long game in building up resources, since that is when the significant clashes will take place. Short-term, it’s possible playing Rack and Ruin would net you a brief mana advantage, and might even enable you to pull ahead in the race while your opponent tries to climb back to the four mana Gifts Ungiven threshold. It’s also possible that throwing Fact or Fiction main so soon after they’ve pitched a counterspell would allow it to resolve, since they’re down a decent number of cards and haven’t had a lot of time or opportunities to draw more of them. However, both of these plays are significant gambles on a large segment of your opponent’s deck being absent from their hand, and if your gamble doesn’t pay off, things could go very wrong, very fast. If your Rack and Ruin goes off unopposed, your opponent could play a mana source and have free reign to play anything they want on their turn. If your Fact or Fiction goes off unimpeded, it becomes the same scenario.
Instead, I think this play maximizes future payoffs: In your first main phase: Drop Flooded Strand, Mox Ruby, tap Mox Ruby, play Goblin Welder, in that order. Playing the Strand first lets you get an additional card into play before giving your opponent priority, which in turn allows you access to more resources when your opponent can respond. Using your Mox Ruby allows you to preserve both your Mana Drain for the coming turn, and your fetchland even if you’re forced to Drain something before your next turn. Preservation of fetchlands is important to maximize Brainstorms, of which there are four left in your deck, and you haven’t yet seen any. You’ve drawn ten cards at this point counting your opening hand, so odds are decent one will be coming up soon. Statistically speaking, you should count on seeing one in your next five cards.
Also, you should do this in your first main phase because your opponent has already shown himself to be of questionable ability, having invested two powerful cards in countering a mostly insignificant creature. Moving to your second main phase, while giving you the option of Draining back and then using the mana to Fact or Fiction on your next turn, taps you out for your opponent’s turn in that event, and tips them off to the possibility of the presence of a Drain in your hand. It’s best not to help your opponent read your counterspells, especially one that might not otherwise give a lot of thought to their plays.
Question #2: What do you think the correct play is?
The correct play is the Strand, Ruby, Welder arrangement. Both for the foregoing reasons, and also because of the following:
Question #3: Why is this the right play?
Making this play does a lot for you. First, it puts the onus on your opponent to invest further control resources in a card that’s ordinarily of minor significance in this matchup. They’ve already shown themselves to be willing to do this, and if you give them another opportunity to make a sub optimal play, you’re paving the way for an even bigger long-term advantage for yourself. I know I’d like to resolve a Fact or Fiction instead of a Welder under almost any circumstance in the Control Slaver/Gifts matchup. Second, it buys you some more time if your opponent was countering your Welders to pave the way for Tinker/Darksteel Colossus. If that was the case, your opponent will be forced to invest yet another counter in keeping a largely irrelevant 1/1 off the board and be that much more unable to force their power spells, like Tinker, through your permission. It’s especially important to make the present play at this particular juncture, because if your opponent drops a mana source on their turn, they could Tinker with drain backup. As they’ve left UU up on your turn, it’s possible they indeed have a Mana Drain in hand, and you want to force them to use that now, so they don’t have it to protect their Tinker.
Third, even if your opponent doesn’t have Tinker, they have still dropped two Moxes without having used them yet. This is a big signal for end of turn Gifts Ungiven. Given their current board configuration, they’re likely going to go for the card-drawing Gifts. They’ve got a decent mana base established, plus likely at least one more mana source in hand or coming up very soon, so they’re not forced to do the mana Gifts. Their graveyard is also fairly weak, so they’re probably not going for the endgame Gifts. However, your hand is not amazing and contains only one gas spell. You don’t want Gifts to be able to pull ahead as far as the card-drawing Gifts will likely enable them to. Moreover, if you stop Gifts Ungiven with a Mana Drain, you’ll be able to Fact or Fiction on your next main phase off your basic Island, keeping an additional UR and fetchland open and still have a colorless remaining.
Question #4: Would knowing your opponent having Mana Drain in hand change your play?
I don’t believe so. If my opponent had a Drain in hand, I am going to be that much more afraid of Tinker with Drain backup on their next turn, and it’s very important for me to get Mana Drain out of that equation while keeping my own Drain around. Given Welder’s ability to virtually neutralize Tinker out of Gifts at this point in the game, this play will accomplish that for me. Also, my opponent’s opening of land plus two Moxes, without playing Thirst for Knowledge at the end of my turn, suggests to me there is no other spell with cost three or less that they could play with Drain backup on their own turn or at the end of my next turn. Ancestral is the only other card in their deck that would really matter at this point, aside from their Thirst, and I suspect if they had the Ancestral, they’d have played it by now. As they will be unable to play and defend Gifts Ungiven in the next turn, it doesn’t figure into my thought process.
So, given that their potential threats are the same, I’d play around things the same way.
…
Browne’s optimal play was to cast Goblin Welder and play the Mox Ruby
To consider this scenario, let us first consider what information we have already gained. The opponent has cast Force of Will on Goblin Welder, pitching a Thirst. It is worth noting that not any card, but Thirst was pitched, a good card made even better by the fact that the opponent has at least two Moxes. While he has had two draws since casting Force and may have drawn both Moxes, it is more likely that he had at least one of the Moxes in his hand when casting Force. This makes his decision to pitch Thirst even more salient.
With the premise that in many circumstances a Goblin Welder isn’t worth using Force of Will on, we can conclude from the Force of Will that one of the following is true:
1. The opponent misvalues Goblin Welder in this match; in other words, he’s not all that great, or at least doesn’t understand the match.
2. Giving the opponent the benefit of the doubt, we can conclude that he is setting up a play that requires Goblin Welder to be off the board. In this situation, the opponent may have a Tinker in hand, or he may be setting up a Gifts. In either case, that Goblin Welder scares him enough to make him pitch his Thirst to Force of Will. In this scenario, in which the opponent isn’t just misvaluing Welder, we can make the following conclusions:
2a. The opponent is unlikely to have a Pithing Needle in hand. While some Gifts variants – especially those with Thirst – may run this card, he is very unlikely to have it in hand at least. Otherwise, he wouldn’t have been afraid of a Goblin Welder.
2b. The opponent has more gas. Unless someone is misplaying, someone wouldn’t pitch their only threat/draw spell to Force in that situation. This fact, combined with the fact the he was so afraid of Goblin Welder in the first place, means that he is quite likely to have Gifts Ungiven, if not Tinker, in hand.
Now that we’ve considered what we know, we can examine which play is optimal. Let us first consider whether casting a main phase Fact or Fiction makes sense.
1. Main phase Fact or Fiction
This play seems sub optimal. First, it walks directly into Mana Drain. Second, it takes our own Mana Drain offline. Third, let’s suppose our opponent has a Gifts Ungiven in hand, which is a scenario not unlikely for the reasons given above. In that case, our Fact or Fiction resolving will allow the opponent’s Gifts Ungiven to resolve, which could well lose us the game. We’re in fine shape with no reason to walk into an easy loss.
2. Rack and Ruin on the Moxes.
The opponent has four mana available, of which two is in artifact form. We could double Stone Rain the opponent for just 2R. This means that even if the opponent has a Gifts Ungiven, he won’t be able to do as much with it. It also means that unless he has another artifact in hand, the opponent’s Tinker isn’t happening right away. On the other hand, doing this takes our Mana Drain offline, and even walks into an opponent’s Drain. If this opponent has a Mana Drain, ironically, we’re giving him even more mana in his main phase than if we did nothing. One can argue, to avoid this issue, that we could cast Rack and Ruin on the opponent’s upkeep. Even so, this would still take offline Mana Drain during the opponent’s turn, and moreover it would use up the Rack and Ruin, which may be needed for a better target like Pithing Needle. So, Option 2 is a reasonable option, but let’s see if we can do better.
3. Goblin Welder, go.
First, we know that the opponent has some play which would be made worse by your having a Goblin Welder, as discussed above. So, by that token, Goblin Welder would be good to have on the board, in addition to its usual utility. Moreover, unlike Rack and Ruin, you can play the Welder while also keeping Drain mana open.
So, what do you lose by casting him? You are walking him into a counter again — you could play him and defend him with Mana Drain, but that’s probably not worthwhile. So, if the opponent has a counter and wants him countered, he’s getting countered. This, of course, is only a problem if you think that trading a Welder for a counter is bad. Oftentimes, you’re perfectly happy to make this trade. And the opponent gaining on mana off a Drain next turn isn’t a terrible risk, especially with that Mana Drain in your hand. Secondly, you lose the ability to cast Fact or Fiction on the opponent’s end step. Of course, a Fact or Fiction is made much better by having an active Goblin Welder anyway. If you cast Mana Drain — not an unreasonable thing to expect — you lose the ability to cast Fact or Fiction.
This play, in short, is a safe play in that very little bad could happen, and at the same time it puts you in a very good position.
4. Go.
You could just pass the turn. However, the only thing you gain from this is the ability to cast Fact or Fiction if you don’t cast Mana Drain before your opponent’s end step. For the reasons discussed above, you’re better off casting the Goblin Welder.
So, in conclusion, the best play is to play the Welder and pass the turn. You maintain your ability to counter, and don’t play any large Drain target. At the same time, you set yourself up for a devastating Fact or Fiction with an active Welder, secure in the knowledge that whatever the opponent has up his sleeve, that Welder is likely a solid foil.
Now, let’s examine those questions.
Question #1: What play do you think gives you the maximum reward, if unimpeded?
The play with the very best outcome is casting a main phase Fact or Fiction, getting a Lotus, a Time Walk, a Yawgmoth’s Will, an Ancestral, and a Mox, and having the opponent give you really awful piles. This, however, is about as likely as the opponent casting Demonic Consultation on your end step, naming a card not in his deck. (Yes, that’s happened to me before). The most rewarding realistic play is that you play your Welder, Drain your opponent’s Gifts, and then next turn Fact or Fiction into Mindslaver.
Question #2: What do you think the correct play is?
As discussed above, play Goblin Welder and pass the turn.
Question #3: Why is this the right play?
Again, please see above.
Question #4: Would knowing your opponent having Mana Drain in hand change your play?
That would change nothing.
…
Shay’s optimal play was to cast Goblin Welder and play the Mox Ruby
Yours truly – Note this was written before seeing the other responses, and my logic is nowhere near as in-depth.
So the game started with Goblin Welder getting Forced. This means the opponent is setting up the bomb (Tinker), or he overvalued how much damage Welder would do to resolved Gifts Ungiven. It could also mean he lacks maindeck Pithing Needle, as that’s a common solution that the Gifts player can just sit on without fighting over Welders. Then on his turn 2 he plays out two Moxen, which is eerie considering the fact that he pitched Thirst for Knowledge. The conclusion I draw from this is that he’s setting up an end of turn Gifts Ungiven, or one in response, and still may have Tinker in hand at this point.
There are really only two options that don’t have a huge amount of risk (main phase Fact or Fiction isn’t exactly a brilliant plan when your ahead): casting Rack and Ruin on the Gifts player’s upkeep, or playing Goblin Welder. The Rack and Ruin risk is that the opponent has Mana Drain and a third Blue source in hand. Though what he could do would be limited due to color constraints (hence why upkeep is optimal if pursuing this play), it wouldn’t be a great conclusion. The Rack and Ruin play, though viable, seems to have too much of a drawback if it fails, essentially wasting a decent card in the match and letting the opponent resolve Gifts Ungiven (if he has it).
The Welder play is the next choice. Since the opponent has already shown a propensity to try to stop him via counter, he may try to do so again with Mana Drain. This would actually be a fine trade; and if he doesn’t counter, then Fact or Fiction becomes a game-winner if it resolves. In addition, this play keeps Mana Drain open to counter back, or simply may keep a Gifts Ungiven from coming out. It has the least inherent risk involved and, almost regardless of the opponent’s play, you will come out ahead here. The last part involved is to play the Mox Ruby to cast Welder, since this allows you to potentially cast Rack and Ruin at the end of the opponent’s turn or in response to a minor spell. It also allows you to save the unused fetchland in case you draw something like Brainstorm.
…
My optimal play was to cast Goblin Welder and play the Mox Ruby.
Conclusion
In the end, that leaves us with three choosing to play Goblin Welder and Mox Ruby, and one for just playing the Goblin Welder. Note that in the statements the latter is not considered a bad play, it’s merely a case of one player actively choosing a bluff over having an option (albeit limited one, I can admit). There you have it folks: how a number of technically sound players came to a decision on, more or less, the same play.
I’ll be doing more of these in the future – hopefully with a new one every two or three weeks, covering just about any deck. I have a few more scenarios of my own to run through, but after that I’ll be looking for new ones. I suggest people start thinking of some interesting ones for future articles.
Big thanks to all involved for sharing their thoughts and time with us. I hope you learned a thing or two.
Joshua Silvestri
Email me at: JoshDOTsilvestriATgmailDOTcom
Member of Team Reflection
Bonus section
Here’s a bit more from Dice on the Gifts versus Control Slaver match. It didn’t exactly fit into the question I asked, but it was good stuff so I’d like to share.
“In any case, it’s possible to overanalyze these scenarios, but it’s easier to follow more general guidelines in the CS-Gifts match-up which apply here. The match revolves around who can assume the beatdown role – Gifts is already in the driver’s seat from the outset, because its beatdown plan is intertwined with its control plan, and all it really has to do is keep hammering you with draw spells – which it will draw in abundance. They will simply draw/tutor out tons of cards, and will win seemingly out of nowhere, because Gifts Ungiven is such a strong set-up card for Yawgmoth’s Will. To make Control Slaver‘s card advantage cards count towards beatdown (critical in the match-up), you must try to establish a Welder early and give the Gifts player reason to fear your Thirst. Otherwise, you simply have to hope that you can “out-control” them, which can be achieved, but then it’s really the luck of the gods and strong technical play that will dictate if that strategy will work. They can just as easily out-control you. If they have Needles to control Welder you might be in a bit more trouble, and it might all depend on whether you have appropriate removal (Shaman, or the solitary Rack and Ruin here) and are able to resolve it. If they don’t have Needle and start countering Welders, it plays to your advantage. The control plan becomes much more feasible as you’re ripping counters and Blue business spells from their hand (like in the scenario) with cards that might otherwise be “dead”. In this case, your Welder functions as a “control” card – a pinpoint Hymn to Tourach, which participates in winning the control war.
“On the Gifts side, he really shouldn’t be paying attention to Welders even if he has no Needles. Gifts only has to concern itself with the “beatdown draw cards” – Fact or Fiction and Thirst. If it can stop those, then the Welder is dead. Even if the Thirst slips though (either because Gifts cannot stop it, or because he chooses to play the odds), this isn’t automatically so tragic for Gifts because there’s a very good chance that the Thirst will not produce the desired Slaver/Titan.”