It was twenty minutes before midnight on June 19, and Twitter was in full swing. There was a congregation of Magic players from all over,
waiting on the most anticipated banned and restricted announcement in years. The Standard format was dying; Pro Tour Qualifier (PTQ) and Friday Night
Magic (FNM) attendance was down, and Wizards of the Coast was expected to act. I stayed up so that I could be “in the know.” I’d be
lying if I said that I wasn’t surprised by the outcome. For those of you don’t know what happened, click the link below.
June 20 2011 DCI Banned & Restricted List Announcement
I knew that Stoneforge Mystic would be banned but for some reason, I never entertained the possibility that Jace might be banned. As a matter of fact,
let me give you a little perspective on something that I learned this week.
Pro Tip:
Don’t buy controversial cards before a banning announcement.
I bought eight Jace, the Mind Sculptors on Friday June 17 at $52 each. Before I even received them in the mail, they were banned. StarCityGames.com was
quick to adjust all their prices in response to the bannings. This meant that I had to act quickly. Jaces were priced at $60, so I priced mine at $50
and tried to sell them on magictraders.com. I sold two at $45 and two at $50. This was a tricky situation because I had the option to take the loss or
to wait and see if Jace’s price would recover. Hey, that’s a good question!
Will Jace’s Price Recover?
This is actually not even a question. Jace is quite possibly the best Magic card ever printed. Of course his price will recover. What’s going to
happen during Extended (or Modern) season, when the PTQers need Jaces for their decks? That’s right, a price spike. I expect Jace’s price
to follow the same track that Tarmogoyf’s price took. When it rotated out of Standard it dropped, then it slowly gained value over time. At one
point during Extended season last year, Tarmogoyf was $90. Not to mention that Jace is quickly becoming a Legacy staple. The question you must be
asking is: why would I take a loss if the price is going to recover?
Taking a Loss (Not Really)
The key here is cash flow. Every business needs cash flow to survive, and I’m a business. I had a buyer for the Jaces at $75 before the banning.
My plan was to get the Jaces and flip them for quick cash, but that fell through (obviously). This is when I examined my options. If I kept the Jaces
until they went back up, then I could possibly sell them at $75.
$75 – $52 = That’s a $23 gain on each Jace
Now let’s look at another scenario. If I take the loss, then I have the benefit of having the cash to buy cards. I spent the weekend buying
cards, and even though I “lost” money on the Jace buys, I gained it back on the buys. Let’s look at the numbers.
$45 – $52 = That’s a $7 loss.
But if I buy $45 in cards at 50% of their value, then I make $90 when I sell the cards. If I subtract the loss, then I end up with $83, which is an $8
gain over waiting, and this doesn’t hinge on the future of Jace. The other aspect here is that the buy price of Jace has changed now (it’s $20
now), so you could essentially buy a Jace with the cash and totally level up.
What do I do about Jace?
I was flooded with communication on the 20th, and amid it all there was one resounding question: “What should you do with your Jaces?” The
answer is simple: don’t sell them or trade them. They will go up. Stick them in your Commander decks until the time is right or loan them to a
friend for Legacy until they go up. If you don’t have Jaces, then yes, now is the time to buy them. If you try hard enough, you may even be able
to get them for $50. The good thing about Jace being banned is that we have something new to focus on.
The Jace Test
We have a new Standard format to decipher, and there is a lot of money to be made. When evaluating creatures in Standard pre-June 20th, the first
question that needed to be answered was, “Does this creature pass the Jace test?” Here’s an excerpt from my Mirrodin Besieged Set Review about Hero of Bladehold:
I’m not sold on this card yet. I expect a lot out of a four-drop in Standard. Hero has to compete with Jace, the Mind Sculptor,
Vengevine, Koth of the Hammer, and Chandra’s Outrage (okay, just kidding about that last one), and it doesn’t stack up. At the four-mana slot, Hero is
susceptible to Mana Leak and even Cancel, not to mention she’s in range for Jace to bounce her before you get any value. Fortunately there is an
upside; if she swings, then things start to get out of hand quickly.
Now that Jace is leaving, a lot of creatures have a new life in Standard. Cards like Hero of Bladehold become much better. Here’s a list of
creatures, which failed the Jace test but could be viable now.
Card Name:
Hero of Bladehold
Popularity:
Low
Perceived Value:
Low $4
Synopsis:
This was already seeing play in the U/W aggro version of Caw-Blade. If this creature can survive in a Jace-infested metagame, then it definitely
can hold its own in an environment without Jace.
SCG Price:
$5.99
Action:
Engage
Card Name:
Consecrated Sphinx
Popularity:
Medium
Perceived Value:
Low $5-6
Synopsis:
Have you ever cast this card? It’s insane. It is currently seeing play in Block, and it will soon see play in Standard. At the very least,
this card is huge in Commander, and you can expect to get a return on all the ones that you trade for.
SCG Price:
$6.99
Action:
Engage
Card Name:
Phyrexian Obliterator
Popularity:
Medium-High
Perceived Value:
High $20
Synopsis:
Once the bannings were announced, I got a flood of request for two cards. One was Primeval Titan, and the other was this card. Now that Jace is
out of the format, there is more space for this guy to shine. I also expect a surge of decks like Valakut, Vampires, and Valakut, and this card seems
like it would be a beating against them.
SCG Price:
$17.99
Action:
Engage.
These are not the only creatures that stand to gain from Jace’s bloody departure, but these are the ones that I think will be in the highest
demand.
New Standard
In my opinion the meta is still a question mark, but a lot of people think that Valakut is going to reign supreme. Based on this speculation alone,
Primeval Titans have gone up in price, but I am not a believer. There was a time when Valakut ruled the metagame, and that was when Caw-Go was invented
to beat it. My prediction is that Valakut will rise and that a U/W or U/W/b deck will emerge to combat it. I also expect Splinter Twin combo and Mono
Red decks to be good. Based on these assumptions, I’ve been picking up the following cards.
Card Name:
Venser, the Sojourner
Popularity:
Low-Medium
Perceived Value:
Low $10
Synopsis:
This card has been good in U/W builds since day one. It’s very powerful in its own right, but it has been over shadowed by Jace in
Standard, until now. See this exchange between Shaheen Soorani and Patrick Chapin.
SCG Price:
$11.99
Action:
Engage
Card Name:
Elspeth Tirel
Popularity:
Low-Medium
Perceived Value:
High $12
Synopsis:
In the original deck tech for Caw-Go, Brian Kibler spoke very highly about this card. I expect this card to be relevant in the new Standard
format. Vampires had a hard time with the ability to make three 1/1s, and I expect Standard to become permanent-based after rotation. This makes
Elspeth’s disk ability really relevant.
SCG Price:
$9.99
Action:
Engage
Card Name:
Primeval Titan
Popularity:
High
Perceived Value:
Low $24
Synopsis:
This is on the rise but will drop once M12 releases because of the reprint. My mode of operation for this card is to pick it up cheap if
it’s available, but I don’t go out of my way to pick it up.
SCG Price:
$29.99
Action:
Do Not Engage
Card Name:
Koth of the Hammer
Popularity:
Medium
Perceived Value:
Low $25
Synopsis:
This is the cornerstone of all Mono Red decks. It will be a player post rotation, especially with support cards like Volt Charge and Grim
Lavamancer.
SCG Price:
$29.99
Action:
Engage
Card Name:
Despise
Popularity:
Low
Perceived Value:
Low .25
Synopsis:
With Batterskull being less prevalent in the metagame, this card finally gets the nod over Duress. People typically ship these cheap, and you
should trade for foil versions if the opportunity arises.
SCG Price:
$1.49
Action:
Engage
There is a lot to be said about the changes, but I always find that the best thing to do in these situations is to wait for tournament results before
making moves. One thing that I have noticed is that people probably haven’t seen the way that the bannings affected pricing. Here is a list of
cards whose values significantly changed since the bannings:
Jace, the Mind Sculptor $60
Stoneforge Mystic $7.5
Batterskull $15
Sword of War and Peace $20
Sword of Feast and Famine $18
Sword of Body and Mind $10
That’s all I have for this week. See you next week!
Jonathan