I’ve been knee deep in Standard because of this weekend (last weekend by the time you read this). SCG is running an Open Weekend in my backyard. Instead of hitting the trade tables, I’m going to be doing battle on Saturday and Sunday. Legacy is an easy format for me because I’m just going to play the best blue deck and I suspect that deck is U/W Stoneforge. Standard is a little harder to “solve” because we have M12 added to the mix and no tournament results to look too. This forced me to do some detective work on what the best deck is and in the process I stumbled on some cards that might be worth trading for.
This week, I want to examine Standard in order to spot some cards that are starting to show their potential, but before we do that I want to talk about my M12 Review.
M12 Revisited
I wrote a pretty off-the-cuff review of M12 last week and after getting time to play with some of the cards or better yet read some of them, I’ve got a slightly different opinion on a couple of the cards. My review is an accurate reflection of my thoughts overall but it’s important to give some added perspective.
Skinshifter $3.99 — The first time that I read this guy, I was like, “That’s awesome.” Then I read the last clause, “Activate this ability only once each turn.” I dismissed him and moved on. Fast forward a week later – I’m sitting on my couch, drinking vitamin water, snacking on De la Rosa Peanut Mazapan (see image below, these are delicious) and writing my review, when I come across this beauty, “Skinshifter”. When I write a review of a card, I try to completely clear my mind and then evaluate the card from the ground up. The problem with this method is that sometimes I erase valuable information like, “I’ve already read this card.”
I read the card (okay, I got past the first two abilities) and I was like, “This card is awesome!” I had dreams of making him a bird, swinging in and after blocks making him a 4/4. Then I thought to myself, “Isn’t his ability once per turn?” I re-read the card (Okay, I got to the third ability this time), and I went on to write my review about how awesome this guy is. Well, guess what guys, he’s not as awesome as I thought. He is a lot less awesome, but what does this mean? I still think that the card will see marginal play in Standard and though there is a chance for him to see play in Legacy, it’s a slim chance (like hula-hooping in a cheerio slim).
Popularity: Low
Perceived Value: Accurate $4
Synopsis: $4 is too much for this guy right now. He’s not good enough to snap keep at $4, we have to see him in action before we make the leap.
Action: Do Not Engage
Grand Abolisher $6.99 — I really played this guy down in my review. I stand by my evaluation because the data agrees with me, but I would like to make it clear that I expect this guy to see play. I am playing him in my experimental U/W/r Splinter Twin list and he does a lot of work in helping me to cast a care-free Splinter Twin. He also shuts down Spellskite. Aside from that, he allowed me to drop uncounterable Gideon Jura and Vensers. He also has a lot of Legacy implications, especially in the Cephalid Breakfast deck where he shuts off Tormod’s Crypt and removal on your combo turn.
Popularity: Medium
Perceived Value: Low $5-6
Synopsis: I’m not a huge fan of picking these up but I can definitely see an opportunity to make money on the foils. Foil hate bears sell and trade very well.
Action: Do Not Engage
Standard Risers
Okay, enough talk about M12. Let’s talk about the cards that are showing up in Standard before M12 hits. I don’t expect M12 to change the relevancy of these cards.
Birthing Pod $3.99 — This card does silly things and I expect it to be part of the newly developing Standard as the format matures. Birthing Pod decks are already popping up around the interwebs. The version below was pioneered by Smitty of 60cards.com. It uses Acidic Slime and Frost Titan to disrupt your opponent’s mana while also providing an instant win with Splinter Twin Combo. This deck has done well in Daily Events on Magic Online (MTGO) but has yet to break out in the paper tournament scene.
Creatures (25)
- 4 Birds of Paradise
- 2 Acidic Slime
- 4 Lotus Cobra
- 3 Nest Invader
- 1 Totem-Guide Hartebeest
- 2 Frost Titan
- 2 Obstinate Baloth
- 1 Wurmcoil Engine
- 1 Molten-Tail Masticore
- 1 Phyrexian Metamorph
- 4 Deceiver Exarch
Lands (25)
Spells (10)
Sideboard
Another interesting take on the Birthing Pod comes out of Canada by way of Kar Yung Tom of manadeprived.com. He built a mono-blue Birthing Pod deck that uses the Treasure Mage / Grand Architect engine to gain an advantage. This deck doesn’t have any competitive results to show for it, but it demonstrates the different type of brews that Birthing Pod can be placed into. It also reminds us that Birthing Pod is essentially colorless, so it can fit into different off-color Strategies.
Creatures (26)
- 3 Solemn Simulacrum
- 4 Silver Myr
- 2 Wurmcoil Engine
- 4 Grand Architect
- 2 Precursor Golem
- 2 Vedalken Certarch
- 4 Treasure Mage
- 4 Spellskite
- 1 Phyrexian Metamorph
Lands (24)
Spells (10)
I wasn’t sure if I wanted to go “here” while talking about Birthing Pod, but I think it’s important that you have this food for thought. Recently Stoneforge Mystic was banned in Standard and in the explanation that Aaron Forsythe posted he said this:
“On its surface, Stoneforge has all the problems of famous mistakes like Tinker—it tutors and circumvents mana costs, two dangerous abilities that get even more dangerous when combined.”
I’m not saying that Birthing Pod is as good as Stoneforge Mystic. The fact that Stoneforge only cost two mana allowed for it to be played in Legacy. This mana cost may be restrictive for such uses, but it’s worth noting that Birthing Pod does tutor and helps to circumvent the natural mana cost of creatures.
Popularity: Medium
Perceived Value: Low $1-2
Synopsis: This card tutors for creatures and puts them into play; this effect should not be underestimated. I expect this to get better as the Standard Metagame matures.
Action: Engage
Frost Titan $5.99 — This Titan seems to have fallen by the wayside in favor of Consecrated Sphinx or other Titans like Grave Titan and Wurmcoil Engine (okay, not a Titan but close). With Valakut rising in popularity after the Jace ban, the situation is ripe for Frosty to make a comeback but in my mind I was still hesitant to issue the “Engage” command in my mind. Every time that I would see them in binders, I’d reach for them, only to reconsider and keep flipping pages. Finally after reading this Twitter exchange I issued the “Engage” command.
Popularity: Low
Perceived Value: Low $4
Synopsis: If this is a card that Patrick and Gerry have their eye on, then it’s one that you should also be watching. Did you notice that it was in the Smitty Birthing Pod List above?
Action: Engage
Tempered Steel $5.99 — Somehow this card snuck up to $6. I can’t say that I am surprised, because I’ve had my eye on this card for a while now. You need to remember two things about this card (and cards like it).
1) It doesn’t matter if the card is good or not, as people are going to want this card. I see a lot of traders pass on cards like this because they think that the deck is terrible. You can’t let the player inside of you speak too loudly, you have to keep your mind open to other people’s wants. This kind of attitude will take you far in the trading business.
2) This period in time for Tempered Steel is what I call a “Feeding Frenzy” because the deck is just popular enough for people to need the card, but at the same time not popular enough for people to value them too high. This means that you can pick them up between $1 and $3 and then ship them at $5-6. Once people start valuing these at $5-6 then it becomes a bad idea to pick them up. That’s when the feeding frenzy is over.
Popularity: Medium
Perceived Value: Low $1-3
Synopsis: This card will not sustain a $6 value. If we were investing then I would recommend against picking these up, but since we’re just picking them up for the flip, it’s an acceptable move.
Action: Engage
Puresteel Paladin $3.49 — This card has been making waves on Magic Online tournaments and it’s starting to become a viable option for Standard. Check out this deck list from the SCG Open in Cincinnati.
Creatures (12)
Lands (23)
Spells (25)
This strategy is really developing. It started as a mono-white deck but it seems like adding the blue is a step in the right direction. This deck means that the swords are pretty solid pickups, because it opens up their range. Legacy and Commander kept the swords from becoming worthless, but now that there is a Standard deck sporting them so I expect the demand to go up.
Popularity: High
Perceived Value: High $6-7
Synopsis: People over value this card, which makes it annoying to pick up but if you pull out your smart phone and hit them with the SCG price, then you can typically get them for less. The great thing is that you can get a solid $6 in trade for these guys.
Action: Engage
Quick Hits
Here’s a short list of cards that I’m watching. I will note the reason alongside them.
Karn Liberated  $14.99 — I see U/B and U/W control variants running this as a one-of or two-of. Because of the cards Commander appeal, I expect the card to creep more toward 20 sooner or later. The fact that he is seeing some Standard Play makes me believe that it will happen sooner rather than later.
Urabrask the Hidden $5.99 — This is pretty good tech against Splinter Twin, but I think this card is very good outside of that application.
Blade Splicer $1.99 — Despite being in an intro pack, this guy is in pretty high demand. If you can get this at $1 or $2 you should pick them up.
Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite $5.99 — SCG is sold out of these at $6. Just saying.
That’s all I have for this week. Rock on guys (and gals).