Gavin: Alright, I have this awesome theory article in my head. Time to write about it.
Socrates: *poof* Gavin, it’s the week of Regionals.
Gavin: Oh, hi there Socrates. What’s your point?
Socrates: It’s the week of Regionals. Your readers are going to want Regionals strategy… and your plan is to write a theory article?
Gavin: Yeah. It’s a pretty awesome theory, and I’m eager to sha-
Socrates: You can write about that next week, the week between Regionals and GP: Seattle. This week needs to be about Regionals.
Gavin: But this theory will help them play better at Regionals! Doesn’t that count?
Socrates: Come on, Gavin. You could say that of any Constructed theory article.
Gavin: Socrates, you know as well as I do that I’ve been too focused on Block and Draft to playtest much Standard. I wasn’t going to test for GP: Seattle until after Regionals, so I just planned on figuring out what I was going to play for Regionals a few days prior based on all of the information I’ve extrapolated from the format.
Socrates: Right, right, but why don’t you just talk about what the reader needs to know about the format based on the same information you’re going to be using to make a deck choice?
Gavin: Hmm, that could be interesting. Any idea how to start?
Socrates: The shortest and surest way to live with honor in the world, is to be in reality what we would appear to be; and if we observe, we shall find, that all human virtues increase and strengthen themselves by the practice of them. *poof*
Gavin: … … … … I hate that guy.
…
It’s the week of Regionals and everyone is scouring about for the latest in technology. Alara Reborn is being added into the mix, and it’s making quite an impact. What’s easy to forget is how much information is out there about the format. Amidst all of the glamour surrounding the set, through the talk of cascade insanity, and past all of the people jamming new cards into their old decks, lie facts which carry a large amount of importance to the format. I don’t have any absurd new brews to show you, nor do I know what deck I am playing so I can extoll its virtues. I am neither going to give you a fish, nor teach you to fish. Instead, I’m going to give you a book on fishing — I’m going to provide you with all of the tools you need to successfully choose a good deck for Regionals. How you use them and which fish you try and catch is up to you.
The number one most important thing I think you need to be aware of this Regionals is the dominating presence of B/W Tokens and, to a lesser extent, the off-branch of G/W Tokens. Yes, I know you know what tokens decks are, how they work, and that they’re good. I’m sure you are also aware that the deck is a popular Tier 1 deck. What you may not realize is how absurdly popular it is. I have talked to players from each Austin PTQ so far, and B/W Tokens is absolutely everywhere. It wasn’t just a trick of their perception either. In addition to seeing B/W Tokens corner to corner, the players I talked to played against it two, three, and in one case, a whopping four times. If there is one deck you need to make sure you beat, it is Tokens. If you cannot beat B/W Tokens, it is very unlikely you will be able to make Top 8. Even if you’re 50/50 with the token menace, is that really a risk you want to take if you’re going to have to play against the deck three times on your way to grabbing a slot to Nationals?
So then, what about playing Tokens? Well, I wouldn’t necessarily advocate that either, unless you’re aware of the risks. Tokens took six out of eight spots in the California PTQ and ten spots between both of the Richmond PTQs. (And that’s not to mention the three B/W Kithkin decks between the two Top 8s, although the decks are distinctly different.) I expect people to take notice and the metagame to shift accordingly. With the metagame among the savvy players becoming more hostile for tokens, including the addition of four maindeck Zealous Persecution to make the mirror even more swingy, tokens might not be a great metagame call this weekend.
Which decks were able to fight through the mass of tokens? Well, a surprise contender is Bant. Tommy Ashton took down one of the Richmond PTQs with Bant, and another player with Bant won a Mox tournament in Ohio this past weekend. I’m sure you’ve seen Tommy’s list, but here’s the list from the Mox tournament since it’s more under the radar.
2 Plains
3 Island
3 Forest
4 Seaside Citadel
4 Brushland
3 Treetop Village
2 Wooded Bastion
2 Flooded Grove
2 Jenara, Asura of War
3 Mulldrifter
4 Rhox War Monk
4 Noble Hierarch
4 Jhessian Infiltrator
4 Shorecrasher Mimic
4 Rafiq of the Many
3 Dauntless Escort
4 Bant Charm
4 Path to Exile
2 Behemoth Sledge
Sideboard:
3 Kitchen Finks
2 Negate
3 Forge[/author]-Tender”]Burrenton [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author]-Tender
4 Qasali Pridemage
3 Flashfreeze
Upon a close reading of both decks, the tokens matchup seems favorable. Cards like Rhox War Monk and Kitchen Finks are excellent when racing a cadre of Spectral Procession tokens, and Wakecrasher Mimic, as well as Behemoth Sledge if you opt to play it, tramples right over the token horde. The major problems are the newcomer Zealous Persecution, because it can take out your Birds/Hierarchs/Mimics and leave your hand weak and stranded, and Terror, because it allows them to kill your single threat you spent three mana on while letting them serve with their creatures again. However, it still seems like Bant is favored. On a last note, because of Bant’s success and use of cards a lot of Regionals players gravitate toward, I would expect Bant to have moderate levels of popularity amongst those who stay up-to-date with the metagame.
Of course, not everybody stays current with the format. And speaking of decks which have been around forever, Five-Color, Reveillark, and Faeries all still exist. A common trap I keep seeing when figuring out what to play is to forget about these old standbys, especially Faeries. Five-Color and Reveillark keep being re-invented, but Faeries, give or take a few small innovations, remains the same as it has been for the past… well, seemingly ever. It’s the only deck I’ve ever seen, Ravager Affinity included, to be hated so much that many FNM communities just have an unspoken agreement about not playing Faeries. Nobody brings it to their tournaments and everybody just lives in some happy fantasy world where they get to play Faeries-susceptible decks and prance around like magical ponies.
(Unfortunately?) That’s not how the competitive game of Magic works. Faeries still exists in the hands of cutthroat competitors, and while Volcanic Fallout may have put a damper on the deck’s spirits, you still need to be adequately prepared for the winged menace. I think you can reasonably expect to play against the deck once during the event, and it will especially give you a lot of trouble if piloted by a strong player in the later rounds. (As Faeries tends to do.)
Going back to Five-Color, there’s a good chance you’ll have to face it at least once, and I wouldn’t be surprised if you had to play against it twice depending on what your typical metagame diversity is like. The problem is that there are so many kinds of the deck that it’s hard to pinpoint one specific build as a target, but I would try and be especially cognizant of Chapin’s new “5CB” Five Color deck. (As seen in his Next Level Magic preview today.) A lot of people will just take that strategy nearly card for card. If they’re not running Chapin’s new concoction, then they are probably running a list close to Nassif’s list from Kyoto, so those are the two I would prepare for.
Speaking of Five-Color and 5CB, how vulnerable is your deck versus Anathemancer? If you’re playing a control deck, you have to have a way to combat Anathemancer. Runed Halo is probably the best option, but you can also try cards which attack the graveyard like Relic of Progenitus — although you’re still prone to them just resolving one and knocking you for seven. There is also Thought Hemorrhage, which is conveniently amazing against the Reveillark decks.
If you’re a disciple of pre-Reborn Standard, then you need to make sure you know what new cards signal about their decks while you’re in a match, and vice versa. If they are playing an underplayed older card, they might be doing so because of its synergy with a new card you can try and figure out. If they are splashing an extra color, it’s probably for a new card. If they are playing a deck more off the beaten path, like Doran, then it’s likely they are doing so because they felt like a new card boosted its strength. For example…
– If your opponent is playing BGW, they will almost certainly have Maelstrom Pulse. If they are aggro or midrange, expect Putrid Leeches.
– If your opponent cycles an Architect of Will or Glassdust Hulk, they have Soul Manipulation in their deck.
– If your opponent plays Soul Manipulation, they expect to get value out of it. Be prepared for Shriekmaws (and therefore little instant speed removal), Mulldrifters, Sowers, etc.
– If your opponent appears to be splashing Red in their Green deck, it is probably for Bloodbraid Elf.
The most important thing, as always, is to play something you are comfortable with and can play well. You can fend off a lot of bad matchups through tight play, good mulligan decisions, and knowing all of the tricks of your deck. Even so, I’d recommend constructing a sideboard based on the above metagame information. You need to be ready to beat Tokens twice, Five-Color once, Faeries once, Red Deck once, and some kind of Reveillark deck once. Standard has enough different decks and new archetypes that you can expect to face several different strategies, but those are the ones you really should be prepared for. If your deck is poised to lose two out of those proposed six matches, you may want to re-evaluate your choice.
By the time you read this I’m sure I’ll still be agonizing over what to play, so feel free to let me know what you think about the format and are going to play in the forums, or by sending an e-mail to gavintriesagain at gmail dot com. Have fun at Regionals, everybody!
Gavin Verhey
Team Unknown Stars
Rabon on Magic Online, Lesurgo everywhere else