Are you kidding me, Guilds of Ravnica?
I mean seriously, Kaladesh Block and Amonkhet Block are
rotating out! All you had to do is not give “Mono-Red” more toys, and you’d
be in the clear. All mistakes would be suddenly rectified as the attention
span of a Magic player is practically non-existent! That shouldn’t be too
difficult of a task given your multi-color theme, should it? It’s not like
the best cards in your set will be mono-colored, right? We should be safe
now! You were the chosen one, but botched it you did! Now there’s nothing
that can stop the flail-wielding Goblin!
Wait, there’s no Blood Crypt? Well that’s good to know. I think I can calm
down a little then. As someone who top 8’d a Grand Prix with the Izzet
Staticaster/Nightshade Peddler combo, I know combos like this have the
possibility to be great, but at least without Blood Crypt the juice might
not be worth the squeeze.
At least not yet…
It’s always nice to look at the new cards trying to figure out just how
potent they can be. There’s a hitch though: Standard doesn’t really work
like that. The format’s always conditional to what mana, creatures, and
removal are existent. Today we’re going to take a look at all of these
things as we sift through the available card pool trying to get a feel for
what’s actually possible, and thus, what cards we really should be stocking
up on before Guilds of Ravnica shows up in Standard tournaments.
The process begins like it always does when Ravnica shows up. 4-5
shocklands roll up ready to wreak havoc on Standard while the corresponding
ones patiently wait for their turn. This often dictates what’s playable
right out of the gates as some color combinations straight up have better
mana than other ones. Guilds of Ravnica Standard will be no
different as the only other premium dual lands in Standard are the ten
check lands.
For now, these are the only fifteen dual lands in Standard which pretty
much forces out any two-color combination that doesn’t involve a shockland.
Of course, there are enter the battlefield tapped dual lands like Forsaken
Sanctuary or Golgari Guildgate, but we don’t really talk about those lands.
It will be a cold day in hell before I kick off preview season talking
about decks with those lands!
The cards in Guilds of Ravnica also revolve around certain guilds
which means Selesnya, Boros, Dimir, Golgari, and Izzet will get the bulk of
the Standard-playable cards, forcing Azorius, Gruul, Orzhov, Simic, and
Rakdos to wait their turn. This is great news for everyone sick of losing
to Teferi, Hero of Dominaria, though I’m not saying it can’t still dominate
the format, but the chances are slimmer without the help of Azorius and
Orzhov.
The next step to discovering what will be playable in Standard is to look
at the available removal spells. After all, Standard is a format that
revolves around what creatures are best positioned against the removal
spells played and vice-versa.
White
Blue
Black
Red
Green
Boros
Initial thoughts about the available removal would make me lean towards
believing red will need a significant boost from the yet-to-be previewed
cards from Guilds of Ravnica to be a basecolor. There might be
some sort of Path of Mettle deck out there, as the Goblin created from
Legion Warboss does help transform it, but as of now there just isn’t a
density of good cards needed for a strategy like that. Don’t sleep on Path
of Mettle though as it’s not bad but simply just wasn’t good enough thanks
to the high power level of previous Standard formats. I predict killing
Llanowar Elves will be very important, and Path of Mettle does it quickly!
Dimir
From looking at this initial list of removal, it would seem that some sort
of Dimir control deck should be playable. The color combination just has so
many options! The win condition is still up in the air, but the deck
doesn’t seem to need much more removal or card advantage given that Search
for Azcanta is still around. There’s even a chance to splash Teferi, Hero
of Dominaria using Field of Ruin, Isolated Chapel, and Glacial Fortress as
fixing. That would help the deck generate card advantage plus give it a
backdoor win condition if Chromium, the Mutable isn’t good enough in the
maindeck.
The biggest issue with U/B or Esper Control is that it would most likely
have to lean on blue and black, given the fixing making it very difficult
to have access to sweepers like Settle the Wreckage or Cleansing Nova for
the format’s most annoying threats. Carnage Tyrant and Vine Mare seem like
a perfect counter to decks like this as Vizier of Many Faces is longer
around to help stem the bleeding once these hexproof threats hit the
battlefield.
Jeskai Control does have good mana, card advantage, and removal for
creatures. The only real downside to this color combination is it doesn’t
have Vraska’s Contempt. Teferi and Ixalan’s Binding could be enough for the
color combination to deal with opposing Planeswalkers though. The biggest
hurdle for this color combination will be finding good ways to close the
game. Torrential Gearhulk is gone, Bant Nexus strategies lost a fog effect,
and Lyra Dawnbringer isn’t the most reliable threat. The win condition is
that big of an issue for Jeskai if the format is creature-based though.
Jeskai Control will struggle against Nexus of Fate and Chromium, the
Mutable strategies if they can find footing in the format.
Golgari and Selesnya
Green may not have great removal, but when does it really? It usually needs
to branch out to other colors to help with creature removal, and green
currently has access to great Golgari and Selesnya mana that can do the
heaving lifting in that department. Good color fixing for base green decks
can be extremely scary when it comes to Standard, especially when the color
has access to card advantage, but that’s not really the case right now. The
color is currently geared towards efficient threats which means the power
of them is contextual to the format’s removal. As of right now, it seems
like green is in a great place, as Guilds of Ravnica only has
access to white’s most aggressive colors, making it difficult to properly
play Settle the Wreckage and Cleansing Nova.
It would be fairly easy for a green deck to splash either black and/or
white, but we need to know why we’re splashing in the first place. White
gives the deck some interesting creatures, but very few of them excite me.
Shanna, Sissay’s Legacy might get stronger as the rest of Guilds of Ravnica becomes available, but for now it seems like the
token themes have come and gone. The same can be said for Emmara, Soul of
the Accord. Shalai, Voice of Plenty could be a nice splash for the deck as
it’s a great way to use excessive mana which is always an issue for green
decks. White also gives the hexproof theme a great payoff in the form of On
Serra’s Wings. It wouldn’t shock me one bit if this was a powerhouse in
Standard moving forward.
Black is the more common splash color for green as it gives the
creature-based color removal, and card advantage. We’ve already discussed a
lot of the removal black has access to, but one of the most powerful ones
is Golgari-themed. Vraska, Relic Seeker has never really gotten a chance to
shine in Standard as it never really matched up well against Hazoret the
Fervent, Rekindling Phoenix, The Scarab God, or Torrential Gearhulk. Only
one of those four still stand, meaning that the powerful Planeswalker might
finally get a chance to do some heaving lifting in the format, especially
now that Golgari is one of the five supported guilds.
This color-combination really does have it all, plus should get more
goodies to come. Already, we have an impressive threat in the form of
Underrealm Lich. While relatively small in stature given the initial cost,
the ability to live through combat and many forms of removal makes me
believe this card will be worth the five-mana investment. It also has card
sifting abilities that can help in the later turns of a game. If Underrealm
Lich is great, cards like Ixalan’s Binding, Vraska’s Contempt, and Conclave
Tribunal will have to see play, but I’m pretty sure they all will anyway.
Green decks did lose a handful of cards though which makes it difficult
figuring out exactly what they will look like moving forward. Rhonas the
Indomitable forced the deck to play cards that turned it on. Green decks
were also forced to live in a format polarized by Goblin Chainwhirler and
Teferi, Hero of Dominaria. That made the deck need to hit fast and hard.
Even though it’s still not proven yet, I’d imagine things will slow down a
little, causing the format to become more midrange again. This might let
cards like Merfolk Branchwalker, Jadelight Ranger, and Elvish Rejuvenator
breathe a little. If this is the case, I’d imagine a Golgari deck in some
configuration will be playable.
Cards I’m currently most interested in are:
Cards like Sylvan Caryatid, Putrefy, or Maelstrom Pulse that might get
previewed would also make the cut. I’m still unsure as of right now if a
deck like this could reliably support double black cards like Vraska’s
Contempt or Ravenous Chupacabra, but even the slightest of fixing would
change my opinion. Who knows, even a reprinting of Farseek could allow this
strategy to branch out for a third color. Golgari just has the tools to
grind through any type for format thrown at it.
White seems to be in the exact opposite position. There’s so many powerful
cards in the color, but figuring out what to do with them is challenging.
In fact, it’s always challenging with this color! Ajani, Adversary of
Tyrants, Resplendent Angel, Lyra Dawnbringer, Radiant Destiny, Ixalan’s
Binding, Legion’s Landing, Knight of Grace, History of Benalia, and Adanto
Vanguard are all good cards, but they’re not great. White just always seems
to miss the mark when it comes to Standard. Usually the color needs
something absurd like Gideon, Ally of Zendikar or Elspeth, Sun’s Champion
for the color to rally behind, but as of right now, that just doesn’t
exist. Without access to one of–if not the–most powerful card in
Standard, white just always lacks the depth needed to play enough roles in
Standard to be good enough.
Often with white, you have to branch out to another color, but rarely does
it mesh well with white unless the other color’s cards are accentuating an
amazing white card. Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants could be that card, maybe,
but right now the density of great creatures to recur is limited,
especially when those creatures need to be powerful enough to protect the
Planeswalker on turn 4. Black was a great color to pair with the knight
theme created by History of Benalia, but the mana is just not going to cut
it moving forward. Selesnya looks like it will be the best chance for white
to shine, but we need more information. If Emmara, Soul of the Accord is
the flagship card of the guild, then I have little faith in the color
combination when based-white.
Izzet
Izzet has always been a guild that struggles in Standard as it’s often
forced to be tempo-based, given its low impact creatures and removal.
Wizard’s Lightning, for example, is a very good spell in the early turns,
but loses value as the game goes on. Other decks stabilize and then begin
deploying more powerful cards, especially after sideboard. Izzet decks need
a great curve and a high density of redundant effects to compete in
Standard given how weak their cards generally are. I don’t see this
changing.
The best chance this color combination has is if there’s enough cards to
make Adeliz, the Cinder Wind playable. That’s assuredly possible given how
Izzet has always centered around Wizards and it wouldn’t even take that
many. Flying would be preferable though as the deck needs some evasion to
get past all these green decks.
After this initial once-through it feels like Standard will be very
creature-heavy. Control decks don’t seem to have adequate finishers to look
like they have for the past couple years. Torrential Gearhulk really did do
a number on the previous format, and now that it’s gone, I just don’t see
how anything outside of dedicated creature control decks (like Jeskai)
being able to compete. At least not right away when it appears that the
creature-based strategies will be either go wide (Boros/Selesnya) or grindy
midrange (Golgari). Dimir might be able to lean on Arguel’s Blood Fast
splashing for Nicol Bolas, the Ravager becoming more midrange like we’ve
before, but without payoffs in the lategame, I don’t even think that’s
possible.
Guilds of Ravnica
isn’t even close to being fully previewed yet which makes the possibilities
endless. It also feels like they’re saving the good stuff for last. Things
I’m going to be looking for are:
-
Can Boros be fast enough to compete with green decks? The best way
for this to happen is revolving around Path of Mettle and Goblin
Chainwhirler. If enough haste, first strike, and menace creatures
get previewed, I’d jump on the idea trying to perfect it for the
first week of tournaments. -
Will Selesnya get enough power to overcome the color combination’s
lack of resiliency? Selesnya can be powerful if its cards are, but
synergy just isn’t enough to compete with targeted removal. -
Will white get another great Planeswalker? The color is
hyper-dependent on this making the value of every white card go up
when they have one. Be sure to keep an eye out for one and
speculate heavily on cards that would go well with it if it does
happen to get printed. -
Will Non-Teferi control decks be possible? Good win conditions are
pivotal for this to happen. They need to be able to compete against
aggressive decks as well as grinding midrange strategies. The
better the card advantage, the less impact they need to have, but
as of right now neither of these effects are at all great outside
of Search for Azcanta and Teferi. -
Will Golgari become a powerhouse? Will the mana allow the deck to
branch out for a third color? Green and black have always paired
well together, and there’s no reason they won’t yet again. That
said, the deck gets stronger the better the mana gets. There’s a
great chance it will be playable, and an even greater chance it
dominates the format given how many ways it can be built. If a
great card in this color combination gets previewed, there’s a good
chance it will see play. Get them early!