Welcome back to my Daily Financial Value of Magic Origins article series! There were a lot of new Mythics and Rares spoiled overnight. Not many prices moved overnight on previously-spoiled cards. Also, WotC revealed the first major reprints for Magic Origins. Let’s dive right into the cards!
How I Review:
Starting Price
: The first price we assign to this card as a preorder.
Current Price
: The current price of the card by the time this article goes live.
Future Price – Short Term
: The price I believe this card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Magic Origins.
Future Price – Medium Term
: The price I believe this card will be at by the time the next set (Battle for Zendikar) comes out.
Future Price – Long Term
: The price I believe this card will be at a year from now when the first set of the second block of next year is released! (The one that is the block AFTER Battle for Zendikar block).
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $10 Current Price: $10 Future Price (Short Term): $15 Future Price (Medium Term): $15 Future Price (Long Term): $20 |
This may be the most popular Commander card printed in years. It’s an artifact, so it can be played in any deck. Both modes are extremely powerful for whatever decks wants it (lifegain or card drawing), and many decks want both.
The last pure-Commander card that I can remember that will have the level of popularity and demand for Alhammarret’s Archive is Akroma’s Memorial. Before getting reprinted in M13, Akroma’s Memorial hit the $20 mark. Even now (about three years later), the price on both printings of Akroma’s Memorial has hit around $13. Alhammarret’s Archive is going to be more popular and more powerful for Commander play than Akroma’s Memorial.
It’s really rare that I think any Commander-centric card will go up in demand/value once packs are being opened, but Alhammarret’s Archive is just that good for that format. These will be the gold-standard of exchange between competitive and casual players at the set release.
If someone manages to make this work in a Constructed format (which I don’t think they will, but you never know), this is going to hit around $30-$40. I don’t think the dream of “Brainstorm for six, put back two” is realistic. I don’t think Sphinx’s Revelation + Alhammarret’s Archive is going to work in Modern – the Archive doesn’t do anything on its own. I do think that this will be an insane card casually.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $20 Current Price: $20 Future Price (Short Term): $30 Future Price (Medium Term): $25 Future Price (Long Term): $25 |
On the flip-side of how good Alhammarret’s Archive is as a casual card, Archangel of Tithes is an A+ Standard all-star. Four mana for a 3/5 flying creature in white is basically good enough just on stats. Adding in both a Ghostly Prison-esque effect and a War Drums-esque effect on that creature is marvelous.
I took a look at the price history of Standard-playable Mythic Dragons/Angels since the M sets debuted with M10 years ago:
Archangel of Thune (M14): Currently $16. High of $35 while Standard-legal. Average price $25 while Standard-legal.
Baneslayer Angel (M10): Currently $13. High of $60 while Standard legal. Average price of $40 while Standard legal before…
Baneslayer Angel (M11, reprint): Currently $13. High of $15 and average of $10 while Standard-legal.
Sublime Archangel (M13): Currently $8.75. High of $30 and average of $20 while Standard-legal.
Thundermaw Hellkite (M13): Currently $10.75. High of $40 and average of $25 while Standard-legal.
Given the comps available for previous iterations of Angels and Dragons in M-sets, I think that a starting price of $20 with a ceiling of $30 is entirely realistic as a price trajectory for Archangel of Tithes.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $10 Current Price: $12 Future Price (Short Term): $15 Future Price (Medium Term): $5 Future Price (Long Term): $5 |
I view Chandra as the worst of the five new planeswalkers. Three mana for a 2/2 with no immediate impact on the board (or no way to immediately flip her) is not great. Needing to cast two red spells the following turn in order to flip Chandra (when you aren’t going to curve well against a 2/2) isn’t great. The flip side of Chandra suffers from the same drawbacks as Chandra Nalaar – the first two abilities aren’t strong enough against what is likely a four-drop Planeswalker (cast turn three, flip turn four). I think Chandra will end up dropping to the bottom of the Creature/Planeswalker barrel shortly after release.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $4 Current Price: $4 Future Price (Short Term): $5 Future Price (Medium Term): $3 Future Price (Long Term): $3 |
Playable red burn at Rare is usually in the $3-$5 after release. I’m starting it at the middle of that range. Should see a lot of Standard play, and the uncounterable clause is likely relevant enough to matter.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $3 Current Price: $3 Future Price (Short Term): $4 Future Price (Medium Term): $2 Future Price (Long Term): $3 |
Forgotten Ancient is sitting at $3-$4 now, but it’s had three printings. In the past, Forgotten Ancient (the Scourge printing) hit as high as $8-$10. There will be more copies of an M15 rare out there than a Scourge rare, but Managorger Hydra costs one mana less and has trample. Should be very popular with casual players, and should be a good long-term bet for casual play. This is one of those cards that definitely hits $4-$5 two years down the road if it’s not reprinted in a supplemental product.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $10 Current Price: $10 Future Price (Short Term): $8 Future Price (Medium Term): $8 Future Price (Long Term): $8 |
Woodland Bellower has the potential to be really powerful. So far from what I’ve seen and researched, nobody knows where or how it’ll be powerful. It can’t get Legendary creatures (no Nissa/Anafenza) and it can’t get non-green creatures – so the best suggestions I’ve seen so far are actually out of Modern decks, where you can use Chord of Calling to get Woodland Bellower to get Eternal Witness to get back the Chord of Calling.
There have been other suggestions (Woodland Bellower + Splinter Twin + Bounding Krasis), but these seem very strictly worse than the current iteration of the Twin combo deck.
The best bet so far in Standard for Woodland Bellower is to get Savage Knuckleblade. You end up with ten power worth of creatures for six mana, one of which has a lot of upside with activated abilities.
Reprints
Today’s reprints are the five painlands from Apocalypse (the ones that were also in M15).
The same thought applies to all five of them: their price is going to remain stable. Their price has already depreciated in anticipation of them not being reprinted, and that lower price will be put up against a fresh supply being added to the market with their reprinting in Magic Origins. I think that, across the board, these are likely cards that will be good bets to go up in value two to three months after Magic Origins comes out when the fresh supply dries up and people will still need them to play with for nine more months.
Battlefield Forge: M15 version at $5 at beginning of June, now at $3.15. Starting Magic Origins version at $3.
Caves of Koilos: M15 version at $3 at beginning of June, now at $2. Starting Magic Origins version at $2.
Llanowar Wastes: M15 version at $5 at beginning of June, now at $3.55. Starting Magic Origins version at $3.
Shivan Reef: M15 version at $5 at beginning of June, currently at $3.35. Starting Magic Origins version at $3.
Yavimaya Coast: M15 version at $3.50 at beginning of June, currently at $2.50. Starting Magic Origins version at $2.50.
Changes Since The Last Article
NONE. Right now prices are stable where they were since yesterday.
Pack Value
To determine the value of a booster pack, I’m going to start with the following formula:
(2R + 1M)/121
People have asked for a little more explanation of this formula, so here goes. There are 121 cards on a print sheet of Magic cards. (You can see this if you win a sheet of cards at a prize wall at a Grand Prix event). A large set typically prints all of the Rares and Mythics on the same sheet:
53 Rares (2 copies of each on the sheet) = 106 total cards
15 Mythics (one copy of each on the sheet) = 15 total cards.
The 2R (two copies of each Rare) and 1M (1 copy of each Mythic) corresponds to the frequency in which those cards appear when collated into Magic booster packs. So for every 121 packs of cards, you’ll see two of each Rare and one of each Mythic in print.
Obviously there is randomization of which cards end up in which packs, so opening a random 121 packs would almost never get you a perfect allocation of product. But if you were to open every booster box of Magic Origins printed, you’d end up with this 2:1 ratio for every Rare/Mythic in the set.
That isn’t enough of a picture though. In fairness, $0.50 to $1 bulk rares don’t really amount to “real” value if you’re looking to trade with other players. So I’m omitting the value of any rare that is below $2 (rounded from $1.99) and any Mythic that is below $4 (rounded from $3.99).
23 out of the 53 Rares have been spoiled. Here are the ones that are $2 and up! (* = REPRINT)
* Battlefield Forge: $3
* Caves of Koilos: $2
Dark Petition: $4
Dwynen, Gilt-Leaf Daen: $2
Honored Hierarch: $6
Jace’s Sanctum: $2
Kytheon’s Irregulars: $3
Languish: $7.50
* Llanowar Wastes: $3
Managorger Hydra: $3
Mizzium Meddler: $2
Pia and Kiran Nalaar: $3
Relic Seeker: $6
* Shivan Reef: $3
* Yavimaya Coast: $2.50
Total Rare Value: $52.00
11 out of the 15 Mythic Rares have been spoiled!
Alhammarret’s Archive: $10
Archangel of Tithes: $20
Avaricious Dragon: $10
Chandra, Fire of Kaladesh | Chandra, Roaring Flame: $12
Day’s Undoing: $25
Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy | Jace, Telepath Unbound: $20
Kytheon, Hero of Akroas | Gideon, Battle-Forged: $25
Liliana, Heretical Healer | Liliana, Defiant Necromancer: $25
Nissa, Vastwood Seer | Nissa, Sage Animist: $20
Starfield of Nyx: $10
Woodland Bellower: $10
Total Mythic Value: $187
So plugging this into the formula, we get the following:
(2R ($52) + 1M ($187) )= $291
$291/121 = $2.40 value per pack, or $86.40 per box.
The value of singles in this set are almost already at retail price for a box ($99.99), and that does not include 30 Rares, 4 Mythics, or the foil values of any cards (and/or any Uncommons of note that might be spoiled that are worth $2+). While there is absolutely going to be price depreciation on cards that don’t see play, that drop is counteracted by the spike on cards that do see play. I think it’s safe to say that for at least the first month out for set release, it’s worth it to buy boxes at $99.99 each, just to trade away the cards you don’t want for the cards you do.
I’ll have more about this tomorrow!