Welcome back to the Financial Value of Magic Origins column! Before we get into today’s card reviews, I wanted to talk about Magic Origins in general.
For past Core Sets, there have been a preponderance of reprints in the set. For Magic Origins, there are not only 16 Mythics (one more than normal), but zero of them are reprints. There are 55 Rares (two more than normal), and so far only eight of them are reprints (Painlands, Knight of the White Orchid, Goblin Piledriver, Gaea’s Revenge).
Why should you care about this? For all intents and purposes, Magic Origins is more like a full large-scale set release than the typical reprint-heavy Core Set. Usually the value of the M-set (M10-M15) is suppressed because so many of the cards are reprints, making it more desirable to pick up singles than to purchase sealed product.
At this point, I’d absolutely call Magic Origins a regular set release. Regardless of how many Commons/Uncommons are reprints, the vast majority of Rares/Mythics (the main drivers of set value) are new cards, unique to this set release.
In addition, Magic Origins will be Standard-legal for just as long as any other small expansion set, under the new Standard set rotation. Magic Origins rotates with Dragons of Tarkir, which will happen with the fall set of 2016. While this is the typical rotation for a Core Set, we aren’t just talking reprints here – we’re talking a set full of new cards that will impact Standard in the same way that Born of the Gods, Journey into Nyx, or Fate Reforged affected Standard.
Combine this with the shorter allocations that retailers are getting from distributors and I think we’re looking at some pretty significant short-term price spikes on this set while people wait for more product to hit the marketplace and for MTGO redemptions to begin. I expect singles to spike very sharply for the first 2-3 weeks after release, quite unlike what we’ve seen from previous Core Sets. I don’t think this spike is sustainable (supply will reach demand in the long run), but I think it’ll be pretty pronounced compared to the usual set release cycle.
It also doesn’t hurt that this set is really good – and that thematically a lot of the Rares/Mythics in this set are tournament-playable cards that fit a specific deck, rather than multiple variations on a set’s mechanics/theme. With ten planes to visit, we have ten different themes running parallel, allowing all sorts of different archetypes to prosper, versus “artifact decks get better during an artifact block.” (Sorry multicolored decks!)
How I Review:
Starting Price : The first price we assign to this card as a preorder.
Current Price : The current price of the card by the time this article goes live.
Future Price – Short Term : The price I believe this card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Magic Origins.
Future Price – Medium Term : The price I believe this card will be at by the time the next set (Battle for Zendikar) comes out.
Future Price – Long Term : The price I believe this card will be at a year from now when the first set of the second block of next year is released! (The one that is the block AFTER Battle for Zendikar block).
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $5 Current Price: $5 Future Price (Short Term): $4 Future Price (Medium Term): $2 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
While it’s nice to see a card with a lot of modes, none of them are particularly game-breaking when attached to a five-mana, four-toughness creature. Disciple of the Ring is very versatile for casual play. I don’t think it has a chance in Standard, since it “dies to removal.” Yes, you can activate the “counter target non-creature spell” mode multiple times, but suppose your opponent has a Hero’s Downfall. Are you going to wait to cast Disciple of the Ring on turn eight so you can have more activation mana to counter the Hero’s Downfall than your opponent has mana to cast it through a double Spell Pierce?
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
I’d compare this to Revel of the Fallen God. Both cost seven mana, and both put four 2/2 creatures onto the battlefield. Gideon’s Phalanx effectively gives the creatures haste, because as an instant you can cast it at the end of an opponent’s turn, and then attack with the knights. You’ll also most likely trigger the indestructible clause from Spell Mastery.
Still, you’re talking seven mana to put four 2/2 tokens onto the battlefield. This might be a one-of in control decks in the right metagame, but generally it’s a bulk effect.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
Evan Erwin previewed Gilt-Leaf Winnower on The Magic Show yesterday. The G/B Elves deck looks to be a real contender for Standard, and this slots in to kill a lot of problematic creatures in Standard (I’m looking at you, Siege Rhino!). It also has pseudo-evasion, so it’s a very realistic card that can turn a losing board position into a winning one.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $3 Future Price (Medium Term): $3 Future Price (Long Term): $3 |
This has sent the price of Arcbound Ravager up yet again, so chances are that this will be a playable card in Affinity in Modern. For two mana, you get a 1/1 that can both make itself bigger and make more artifact creatures when it dies. Solid as an early-game, mid-game, or late-game draw for that deck.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $3 Current Price: $3 Future Price (Short Term): $5 Future Price (Medium Term): $4 Future Price (Long Term): $4 |
Speaking of cards that fit a specific archetype – this is a bear that does a ton of work. 2/2 for 1G is a fine body for an Enchantress creature. While you don’t draw a card, reducing mana costs plus gaining life is not an insignificant effect for this type of deck to have. People are going to try this in multiple formats (including Legacy). I think Modern is about as far as this’ll reach for serious tournament play – but it’s not bad at all for a card to immediately becomes Modern relevant as soon as it’s printed. Enjoy playing this with your Eidolon of Blossoms deck in Standard for the next three months!
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Just a big derpy creature that does big derpy stuff. Repeat after me: “if only this card had trample!”
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
The more that people have discussed Renown as a mechanic, the less I think it’s a tournament-relevant mechanic. At least Scab-Clan Berserker has haste, so your opponent might not see it coming. Still – you end up with a 3/3 on turn three (that only hit for two that turn), and the triggered ability is easy to play around. I expect this to end up as a bulk-priced card.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
If I’ve learned one thing, it’s that white mass-removal spells that leave your opponent all of their lands and a ton of their permanents are not worth playing. While you get to choose which permanents your opponents keep, they still get one of each – which can often make casting Tragic Arrogance an absolute do-nothing spell. The problem is that while this will be really good against some decks (think of it against a Mastery of the Unseen deck in Standard), it’ll just as often be a completely dead draw.
Reprints
No reprints spoiled today!
Changes Since The Last Article
Abbot of Keral Keep: From $2 to $3. People are wanting to try this out as an aggro creature.
Animist’s Awakening: From $2 to $5. I don’t think this’ll work out long-term, but Amulet Bloom players seem excited about incorporating this into their deck.
Talent of the Telepath: From $1 to $2. Drawing lots of interest from casual players.
Pack Value
To determine the value of a booster pack, I’m going to start with the following formula:
(2R + 1M)/126.
The formula has changed slightly because of Wizards including 16 Mythics and 55 Rares in the set. This isn’t a significant change, but it does move the math by a few percentage points.
48 out of the 55 Rares have been spoiled. Here are the ones that are $2 and up! (* = REPRINT)
Abbot of Keral Keep: $3
Animist’s Awakening: $5
* Battlefield Forge: $2
* Caves of Koilos: $2
Dark Petition: $4
Dwynen, Gilt-Leaf Daen: $2.50
Exquisite Firecraft: $4
Gilt-Leaf Winnower: $2
* Goblin Piledriver: $15
Hallowed Moonlight: $5
Hangarback Walker: $2
Harbinger of the Tides: $5
Honored Hierarch: $6
Infinite Obliteration: $3
*Knight of the White Orchid: $3
Languish: $7.50
* Llanowar Wastes: $2
Managorger Hydra: $3
Mizzium Meddler: $2
Molten Vortex: $3
Pia and Kiran Nalaar: $3
Relic Seeker: $3
Scab-Clan Berserker: $2
* Shivan Reef: $2
Talent of the Telepath: $2
Vryn Wingmare: $3
* Yavimaya Coast: $2
Total Rare Value: $98
15 out of the 16 Mythic Rares have been spoiled!
Alhammarret’s Archive: $8
Archangel of Tithes: $20
Avaricious Dragon: $10
Chandra, Fire of Kaladesh | Chandra, Roaring Flame: $12
Day’s Undoing: $20
Demonic Pact: $5
Disciple of the Ring: $5
Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy | Jace, Telepath Unbound: $20
Kytheon, Hero of Akroas | Gideon, Battle-Forged: $25
Liliana, Heretical Healer | Liliana, Defiant Necromancer: $25
Nissa, Vastwood Seer | Nissa, Sage Animist: $20
Pyromancer’s Goggles: $6
Starfield of Nyx: $8
Woodland Bellower: $8
Total Mythic Value: $192
So plugging this into the formula, we get the following:
(2R ($98) + 1M ($192) ) = $388
$388/126 = $3.08 value per pack, or $110.88 per box.
There’s one Mythic left to discuss tomorrow (Titan of Erebos, which has some translation issues right now – this is why I wait for the English versions of cards), and seven Rares left in the set (Nissa’s Revelation is one of those seven; the other six are unknown as of the writing of this article). See you tomorrow when we discuss the last few cards in Magic Origins!