Daily Financial Value Of Journey Into Nyx (4/11)

The fifth day of Ben’s Financial Value Of Journey Into Nyx features a few new rares, including one that is sure to be among the top rares of the set and will prove itself across all formats!

It’s the end of our first week of the Financial Value of Journey Into Nyx! Quick spoiler: This set is turning out to be really good. The past few “small” sets have been relatively lackluster (Born of the Gods, Dragon’s Maze, Dark Ascension). We have to go back to New Phyrexia to find a small set that really blew it out of the water. Journey Into Nyx is starting to pull away from the pack of small sets and is heading into rarified “really good small set” territory. Throw in that this is the last set of a block (least drafted, least purchased, least played), and I think we have the recipe for long-term success on these cards.

Side Note: My Building On My Budget (or BOMB, if you will) column will be going on hiatus the next two weeks while I concentrate on the Daily Financial Value column. Don’t worry—I have a humdinger (yes, I said humdinger) of a column planned for the return of BOMB!

How I review:

Starting Price: The first price we assign to the card as a preorder.
Current Price: The current price of the card by the time this article goes live.
Future Price (Short Term): The price I believe the card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Born of the Gods.
Future Price (Medium Term): The price I believe the card will be at by the time the next set (M15) comes out.
Future Price (Long Term): The price I believe the card will be at a year from now when the next spring set is released (name unknown still, but probably [Something] of Khanar).

Dictate of Karametra

Starting Price: $1.50

Current Price: $1.50

Future Price (Short Term): $1

Future Price (Medium Term): $1

Future Price (Long Term): $2

Mana Flare effects have always ended up holding solid value to casual players in the long-term (see: Niraka Revenant, Crypt Ghast, Vernal Bloom, Heartbeat of Spring, Mirari’s Wake, and Mana Flare itself), whether the effect is symmetrical or not. Dictate is likely one of those cards that takes a while to rise in value, since it doesn’t have an immediate home in Standard. This set seems packed with cards that in the short-term are going to have a lower value because of lack of competitive demand but will be $3-$4 cards a couple of years down the road due to the supply drying up and lots more casual players getting into the game. Dictate of Karametra is another one of those cards.

Hypnotic Siren

Starting Price: $1

Current Price: $1

Future Price (Short Term): $1

Future Price (Medium Term): $1

Future Price (Long Term): $1

This is one of those weird cards that is great early in the game, and great late in the game, but just terrible on turns two through six. The plus side on it is that it’s an enchantment creature, so with decks that want cheap enchantments (see: Eidolon of Blossoms), this is actually a decent choice for those decks. I don’t think Hypnotic Siren will be a staple, but I do think it has a chance to be a sleeper player in Standard. Will likely end up staying at the top end of bulk pricing ($1) rather than being straight bulk ($0.50).

Launch the Fleet

Starting Price: $1

Current Price: $1

Future Price (Short Term): $0.75

Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50

Future Price (Long Term): $0.50

I’ve seen this card before, and it was called Militia’s Pride. The advantages to Launch the Fleet – costs one mana less to initially cast, and it can trigger off of token creatures or trigger Heroic. Advantage to Militia’s Pride – it was an enchantment, so it stuck around pretty much forever, versus being a one-time effect. Militia’s Pride topped out at $2 while in Standard and was a fringe card. Launch the Fleet is pretty much worse and will be printed a lot more than a Lorwyn Rare, and therefore I see as a bulk rare.

Mana Confluence

Starting Price: $20

Current Price: $20

Future Price (Short Term): $25

Future Price (Medium Term): $30

Future Price (Long Term): $25

Every now and then Wizards prints a Rare that is completely can’t-miss. I only sparingly designate cards as “Can’t Miss” in my reviews; past cards include Snapcaster Mage and Mutavault. Mana Confluence is “Can’t Miss.” Every format is going to want this card, all the way back to Vintage! In Legacy, this is better than City of Brass because you won’t take damage from Rishadan Port. Except for Ad Nauseum/Phyrexian Unlife decks, Mana Confluence is pretty much a strictly better City of Brass.

Mutavault is $40 and it has been printed twice (Morningtide and M14). Snapcaster Mage was $25-$30 the majority of time when it was Standard legal. Mana Confluence will be played a ridiculous amount in Standard (especially after Return to Ravnica block rotates in October), and it will be a staple in Modern, Legacy and Vintage. Let’s put it this way – there are decks running Tarnished Citadel for this effect in Legacy, and 100% of these decks will immediately move Mana Confluence to the City of Brass slot, and City of Brass to the Tarnished Citadel spot.

I am fairly certain that, barring something completely insane getting spoiled next week, Mana Confluence will end up being the most valuable card in the entire block, Mythics included. This sounds bold, but keep in mind that City of Brass has been printed six times (plus a seventh JSS promo printing) and is still a very solid $6 card. Mana Confluence is being printed once at this point, and has a very high ceiling because of this cross-format demand already built into the card.

Worst Fears

Starting Price: $2

Current Price: $2

Future Price (Short Term): $2

Future Price (Medium Term): $2

Future Price (Long Term): $2

Cute, but eight mana for a one-shot Mindslaver effect isn’t going to cut it in most formats – especially since we already have recurring Mindslaver in Modern if you want with Academy Ruins (versus this, which you can’t recur).

Changes In Value Since Yesterday

Dictate of the Twin Gods: From $2 to $1 – Selling too slowly, dropped the price.

Kruphix, God of Horizons: From $8 to $12 – A lot of people see this as a trump card in the Bant-on-Bant control match in Standard. Kruphix might have applications there, but probably at most as a two-of.

Pack Value

To determine the value of a booster pack, I’m going to start with the following formula:

(2R + 1M) / 80

That isn’t enough of a picture though. In fairness, $0.50-$1 bulk rares don’t really amount to “real” value if you’re looking to trade with other players. So I’m omitting the value of any rare that is below $2 (rounded from $1.99) and any mythic that is below $4 (rounded from $3.99).

Nineteen out of the 35 rares have been spoiled. Here are the ones that are $2 and up!

Dictate of Kruphix: $3
Eidolon of Blossoms: $3
Eidolon of the Great Revel: $6
Hall of Triumph: $2
Mana Confluence: $20
Temple of Epiphany: $6
Temple of Malady: $6

Total Rare Value: $46

Seven Mythics have been spoiled. Six of the seven are over the $4 mythic threshold, and the other confirms our Worst Fears!

Ajani, Mentor of Heroes: $30
Godsend: $15
Iroas, God of Victory: $20
Keranos, God of Storms: $20
Kruphix, God of Horizons: $12
Sage of Hours: $6

Total Mythic Value: $103

So plugging this into the formula, we get the following:

(2R ($46) + 1M ($103) = $199

$199/80 = $2.4875 value per pack or $89.55 per box

There are three Eidolons (all of which have high potential to be good), two Gods, one last Mythic, and a slew of other rares left to spoil. See you all next week! (And I don’t know about you, but I’m really excited about this set!)

Previous Daily Financial Value Of Journey Into Nyx Articles

4/7 – Eidolon of Blossoms; Extinguish All Hope; Hall of Triumph; Heroes’ Bane; Iroas, God of Victory

4/8 ­– Dawnbringer Charioteers; Dictate of Kruphix; Dictate of the Twin Gods; Doomwake Giant; Godsend; Keranos, God of Storms; Scourge of Fleets; Spawn of Thraxes

4/9 – Ajani, Mentor of Heroes; Sage of Hours; Temple of Epiphany; Temple of Malady

4/10 – Eidolon of the Great Revel; Kruphix, God of Horizons; Setessan Tactics; Silence the Believers