Analyzing The Worlds Standard Metagame

With the last of the old generation of World Championships behind us, I have to admit I am filled with more than a touch of sadness. It is often depressing after a Pro Tour, reflecting on how long it is until the next one, compared to the days when there used to be six or even seven Pro Tours in a year. This time is different, however. It is not just the sadness of winning my first five matches and ending one win out of the money. It is not just ending on 29 pro points for the season and 199 pro points lifetime. It is not just the sadness of a number of friends of mine falling just short of their respective goals. It is actually more akin to grief. This game, this culture, it is the greatest thing I have ever been a part of.

Whenever a muggle asks me about “the best I have done in a weekend,” I always respond with finishing second at the World Championships. That is a concept that transcends knowledge about Magic. To be competing in the World Championship of anything—that resonates with people. I often think back to that tournament, Worlds 2007, where Nassif, Herberholz, and I broke it with Dragonstorm. My match against Nassif was the most memorable of my career. Worlds has a way of making amazing storylines come to life. Sometimes I imagine what it would have been like if that tournament had only been 16 people. I certainly wouldn’t have been invited, as it was my first individual Pro Tour back, and I qualified on rating (though surely would have been nowhere close to a normal PT invite on competitive points, let alone being top 10 in professional points).

I competed in an Invitational, back in 2000. I know what it is like to be one of 16 people able to compete on the game’s greatest stage. It is awesome; it truly is. It is not, however, an experience that very many people can have. Competing in the World Championships of Magic has been many players’ proudest moment in the game. It saddens me to think of how few people will get to feel that under the new system.

One of my highest goals, which may no longer exist by definition, has been to compete on the US National Team. Representing our country on the game’s greatest stage would have been a great honor. Nationals should mean something, or at least it feels like they should.

Change is vital, and though often scary or uncomfortable, it is not an inherently bad thing. The recent changes—taking away meaningful support from premier play when Magic is at an all-time high and carelessly tossing aside 18 years of history in the form of Elo ratings, Pro Points, and World Championships—are very troubling. However, I am then filled with hope.

You see, whenever there is a major change, a number of people get upset, and some even talk about Magic dying or what have you. This time, this time has been different. First of all, the voice is nearly unanimous. Second, it was not just an initial wave that subsided once people got used to it. The sheer volume of reasonable and respectful e-mails, articles, blogposts, forum posts, tweets, letters, and conversations is creating an avalanche at Wizards of the Coast. Remember, they are just a bunch of people that love Magic, love this culture, and want it to thrive to the greatest extent possible. All that said, they are just people. Our feedback matters, and the community has been making it crystal clear that the World Championships mean something. High-level premier play means something. Quality, not just quantity, means something. “The Dream” means something.

Until the second half of the schedule is announced and the replacement for the Pro Player Club is announced, nothing is set in stone. We are voting with our words, with our actions! Many involved conversations with Wizards employees fill me with hope, as they are hearing us, and they greatly appreciate the feedback. They are still deciding what all to do and the direction these changes should go, so it has been immensely powerful to have so much of the community speaking out and in unison. If these things matter to you, please take a moment and share your thoughts here . If you are on Facebook and have not already, please check out this group . Even if you are not on Facebook, you can still check out this petition to Wizards of the Coast. If you have already, please consider telling at least one or two friends that have not already. This is the fork in the road.

Another consequence of a full-sized Worlds is the latest evolution of the Standard metagame. Without question, Innistrad is truly a triumph of Wizards R&D. The set is one of the best sets for draft of all time, but it has also proven one of the best Constructed sets of all time as well. There are so many playable, fun, interesting, and powerful cards, though likely none are broken. Even the cards that push the envelope, like Snapcaster Mage and Liliana of the Veil, are proving to be reasonable chess pieces that fit into what has proven to be one of the healthiest metagames in recent memory.

Usually, Standard is at its low point when a large expansion (like Innistrad) replaces a full year of sets. The card pool is so shallow, now that sets are smaller, and the outcome is usually a slightly less deep format that doesn’t have as much room to grow as we’d like. Innistrad has totally blown this view out of the water!

Week 1: Mono Red split the finals in a field populated by U/W Blade.

Week 2: Wolf Run appeared and took the title while Solar Flare was dominant in Swiss.

Week 3: U/B Control took the title in a Wolf Run-heavy field.

Week 4: Wolf Run Green with Dungrove Elders evolved into the top deck.

Week 5: Mono-Black Infect in the spotlight, with Wolf Run Naya starting to show up frequently.

Week 6: G/W Tokens won the Grand Prix, with W/u Humans surging ahead.

Week 7: The emergence of U/R Tempo and Bant Pod.

Week 8: Bye-Week (Limited Grand Prix)

Week 9: Illusions was one of the top two decks, and Tempered Steel put up excellent numbers; G/W Tokens was the most popular; Wolf Run won the title and appeared well-positioned again, and both U/W/R and Grixis suggested a new breed of control deck, fueled by Desperate Ravings!

This is without a doubt one of the most dynamic yet balanced formats I have ever seen with such a small card pool. What’s more, it doesn’t appear to have stopped evolving. I would be shocked if the format manages to make it all the way to Dark Ascension without getting stale, a feat never accomplished in the world of major tournaments; however, two months in, and the format shows no signs of slowing yet. The Dark Ascension Prerelease is just two months away, meaning already we are halfway done with the season, and nothing close to equilibrium seems anywhere in sight.

First, let’s take a look at the metagame breakdown from Worlds as a whole (thanks, as always, to Paul Jordan for innumerable data contributions):

Archetypes	Metagame Percentage	Win Percentage
G/W Tokens	16.8%	48.6%
U/w Illusions	15.7%	53.1%
Mono Red	13.3%	52.3%
Solar Flare	10.1%	49.2%
Wolf Run	10.1%	52.3%
Tempered Steel	5.1%	61.6%
U/B Control	5.1%	36.3%
Esper Control	3.7%	50.6%
W/u Humans	3.7%	48.8%
U/W Control	3.5%	46.6%
Birthing Pod	2.9%	44.6%
Grixis Control	2.1%	48.9%
Puresteel	1.3%	56.7%
Mono-B Infect	1.0%	50.0%
Tezzeret	1.0%	54.2%
U/R Tempo	1.0%	29.2%
Misc U/W Aggro	1.3%	50.0%
Misc U/x Control	1.1%	62.5%
Other	0.8%	17.6%

That is a lot of different decks, to say nothing of the countless variations among them (such as the many flavors of Wolf Run and how divergent many of the control decks were from other control decks of the same colors). While this chart is interesting, it is dangerous to give it too much weight, particularly the individual archetype match-win percentages, as most of these archetypes did not play a statistically significant number of matches. Additionally, there is much variation between archetypes, such as Andrew Cuneo’s 6-0 build of U/W Control vs. many other builds of U/W that averaged just 46.6%. Another example is the Grixis deck that Sam Black, Alex West, Jon Finkel, and I played (58.3% match-win percentage) vs. all other Grixis decks combined (just 33.3% match-win percentage). On top of all of this, there is so much bias as a result of play skill and small sample sizes. For instance, is Tempered Steel really the best deck, or was it just played by the greatest mean skill level of players?

Nineteen categories is awfully difficult to work with. Let’s try breaking the metagame into more manageable chunks, based on key cards:

Archetypes	Metagame Percentage	Win Percentage
Moorland Haunt	27.2%	52.1%
U/x Control	26.6%	47.2%
Gavony Township	16.8%	48.6%
Stromkirk Noble	14.4%	50.4%
Kessig Wolf Run	10.1%	52.3%
Birthing Pod	2.9%	44.6%
Phyrexian Crusader	1.0%	50.0%
Misc.	1.0%	17.6%

This perspective reveals the five pillars of the format: Moorland Haunt, Gavony Township, Stromkirk Noble, Primeval Titan, and Mana Leak, but it also reveals some disparity among the strategies’ levels of success. While it is interesting how balanced the format appears across the board, it is also worth noting that Moorland Haunt decks can occupy a full 2/7ths of the metagame, the largest macro-strategy, yet still post among the best win percentages. Meanwhile the next two most popular macro-strategies, U/x control and Gavony Township, underperformed. Though on balance, Township was relatively close to 50% despite being gunned for as the deck to beat, and U/x Control strategies were extremely split between the successful rogue builds and the mainstream lists, with an abysmal showing. Kessig Wolf Run was also among the best performing strategies, adapting to punish a format so thoroughly populated by small creature aggro decks.

Let’s rearrange the data one more time, this time looking at the most popular strategies to start looking for the gauntlet we should be working with going forward:

Major Archetypes	Metagame Percentage
G/W Tokens	16.8%
U/x Control (non-Flare)	16.5%
U/x Illusions	15.7%
Mono Red	13.3%
Moorland Haunt (non-Illusions)	11.5%
Solar Flare	10.1%
Wolf Run	10.1%
Misc.	6.0%

These are the seven basic strategies that the format is built on and that we should prepare for in the weeks to come. We are going to take a look at an example of each, as well as a few other noteworthy decks, with an eye to the recent changes they have adopted to combat the current meta. First though, a little more data on some of the archetypes that performed well, as well as some under-achievers.

Top Performers:

Tempered Steel 61.6%

Puresteel 56.7%

Illusions 53.1%

Mono Red 52.3%

Wolf Run 52.3%

Exotic U/x Control* 58.3%

*= U/W/R Control, Delver-Go, Tezzeret

Three Moorland Haunt decks and Wolf Run are no surprise, but what’s more interesting are Mono Red and the exotic blue control decks. Mono Red had a win percentage of 56.4% against decks with the card “Island” in them but only a 45.2% record against decks without any. That is pretty incredible for 258 matches’ worth of data. As for the exotic blue control decks, it was definitely a tournament where a well-built blue deck attacking from an unexpected direction could gain significant edge, while the stock blue decks suffered. In addition to U/W/R Control, Delver-Go, and Tezzeret, both Cuneo’s unusual U/W Control and the Grixis deck that Black, West, Finkel, and I played defied convention, allowing us to post significantly better numbers than stock blue control decks did. They had a nearly universally poor showing:

Underperforming Mainstream Blue Control Decks:

Solar Flare 49.2%

U/W Control 46.6%

U/B Control 36.3%

Very interesting that blue control should be the second most popular macro-strategy, comprised of over 70% stock builds of these three archetypes. Time and again, we see poor showings from yesterday’s control decks and excellent showings from the cutting edge builds.

Other Major Underperformers:

Gavony Township 48.6%

Birthing Pod 44.6%

U/R Tempo 29.2%

As mentioned above, Gavony Township was depressed somewhat by a format gunning for it (despite it not actually being that good a deck). Birthing Pod and U/R Tempo did not have particularly large sample sizes but have never really experienced prolonged success. They shouldn’t be written off, particularly if some new technology is invented. However, as currently built, they are not quite ready for prime time.

This leaves us with the following major archetypes:

G/W Tokens

Non-Flare Blue Control

U/x Illusions

Mono Red

Non-Illusions Moorland Haunt Aggro

Solar Flare

Wolf Run

Ideally, we would have time to test against all seven, though that is a luxury we may not always have. Let’s take a look at each of these archetypes and look to simplify our gauntlet down to five decks.

Township Tokens

Richard Bland

2nd Place at Worlds on 11-20-2011

Standard

Creatures (19)

Planeswalkers (7)

Lands (25)

Spells (9)

Sideboard

There were a number of winners at this year’s Worlds. G/W Tokens was not one of them. It performed poorly against most of the mainstream decks, other than Mono Red (which lost to every non-blue deck) and U/B Control (which lost to basically everything). Despite this poor performance, it is not likely to fall off the map, as it has a solid foundation, and people like this sort of thing. Besides, rarely is an archetype going to completely fall off the map after being the top dog for nearly a month. While it is unlikely to remain the most popular deck in the room, it is sure to be a common opponent week-in and week-out.

Bland’s build is not particularly unusual, with the biggest innovation being the adoption of maindeck Gut Shots (yes, this format has a LOT of one-toughness creatures). The move towards even more reactive elements (Gut Shot, Mortarpod, Oblivion Ring, Garruk, Blade Splicer, Elspeth) allows G/W Tokens to play a sort of board control strategy that ties up the game until it can start gaining a massive advantage each turn from a Township.

Up next, we have one of the big breakout decks of the event. To be fair, Illusions had already picked up steam in the weeks prior, most vocally advocated by Todd Anderson nearly a month ago . This was the first week that Illusions was treated as a top dog in the paper format, however, and it did not disappoint.

U/W Illusions

Nico Bohny

13th Place at Worlds on 11-20-2011

Standard

Creatures (22)

Lands (20)

Spells (18)

Spells (12)

Sideboard

Nothing too out of the ordinary, Wescoe manages another top 8 with white weenie, though this time he incorporates maindeck Mana Leaks. He did X-0 the Swiss, though, and it’s a worthwhile list to consider if you like this sort of thing.

U/W Puresteel

Gregory Cassini

97th Place at Worlds on 11-20-2011

Standard

Creatures (14)

Lands (23)

Spells (23)

Sideboard

Tempered Steel was not the only strategy to capitalize on Etched Champion, as Puresteel Paladin put up excellent numbers, albeit with a relatively small sample size. The move towards Invisible Stalker is definitely interesting. I don’t expect this list to gain too much popularity this week, but it could be a dark horse to gain big in a couple weeks.

U/W Control

Andrew Cuneo

10th Place at Worlds on 11-20-2011

Standard

Creatures (2)

2 Snapcaster Mage

Planeswalkers (5)

Lands (27)

Spells (26)

Sideboard

I was generally not a fan of most of the standard sorts of control decks, but Cuneo’s list (that he X-0ed with) is a bit far from standard. Using almost no creatures, it harkens back to the planeswalker-centric builds from previous seasons, with lots of counterspells and lots of card draw. For those not familiar with Andrew Cuneo, he is one of the top deckbuilders of all time but has been away from the Pro Tour scene for over a decade. One of his most famous contributions was the creation of the original Draw-Go deck, a phrase he coined and that we see returned to life in this build.

Tezzeret

Shouta Yasooka

38th Place at Worlds on 11-20-2011

Standard

Creatures (8)

Planeswalkers (5)

Lands (25)

Spells (22)

Sideboard

Finally, for all you Tezzeret fanatics out there, as always, we turn to Shouta Yasooka for our monthly update on how to win with the format’s best blue planeswalker. Borrowing distinct elements from U/B Control, Tezzeret isn’t even the primary focus on this list. Instead, it is more of a card-advantage engine that can give Shouta additional options for changing up his attack. One card choice I disagree with is his use of Wring Flesh. Back when Snapcaster Mage was being played in these sorts of decks, Wring Flesh made an excellent spell to flashback. Without it, however, Fume Spitter is a fair bit better (and should actually being seeing play in a number of places that have not yet made use of him).

No question, this format is incredibly dynamic and fascinating, despite appearing to be relatively balanced week-in and week-out. So much technology has come to the surface every week, and I have a feeling the format is far from over. The Invitational is just two weeks away, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the metagame takes a pretty jump by then. I am out for today, but will be back on Wednesday (which will include the deck I played at Worlds in Modern). See you then!

Patrick Chapin
“The Innovator”