Nothing shakes up Modern like a banning or unbanning.
Because the barrier for entry is so high for new cards or sets to make an
impact on the format, each set release usually only brings about very light
change. However, the exit or reentry of an exceedingly powerful card often
sends shockwaves throughout the entire format.
A metagame is like an ecosystem, with even small changes causing ripples
throughout, and the reentry of Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Bloodbraid Elf
to the format will be felt majorly in all areas.
Last week
I did an overview of the cards that stood to lose or gain from the
unbannings, which was a theoretical overlook of how deckbuilding would be
affected across the format. Today we are going to go over the top eight
most played decks from Pro Tour Rivals of Ixalan and ask ourselves
three important questions:
– Can this deck play Jace, the Mind Sculptor or Bloodbraid Elf? If so, does
it want to?
– Is the reintroduction of Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Bloodbraid Elf to
the format a positive or negative for this deck’s success going forward?
– How is the deck going to have to adapt to the new format?
Here are the top eight most played decks of Pro Tour Rivals of Ixalan:
I will be using the highest finishing/most Constructed wins list of each
deck for our analysis.
| Pro Tour Rivals of Ixalan Most Played Decks | ||
| Archetypes | Number Played | Percentage of Tournament Field |
|---|---|---|
| Five-Color Humans | 43 | 9.3% |
| Affinity | 37 | 8.0% |
| Burn | 34 | 7.3% |
| Tron | 32 | 6.9% |
| Grixis Shadow | 30 | 6.5% |
| Eldrazi Tron | 26 | 5.6% |
| Jeskai Control | 23 | 5.0% |
| U/R Gifts Storm | 23 | 5.0% |
Creatures (37)
- 4 Meddling Mage
- 4 Noble Hierarch
- 4 Phantasmal Image
- 4 Champion of the Parish
- 4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
- 4 Mantis Rider
- 1 Kytheon, Hero of Akros
- 4 Reflector Mage
- 4 Thalia's Lieutenant
- 4 Kitesail Freebooter
Lands (18)
Spells (5)
Five-Color Humans was the breakout deck of the Pro Tour, surprising many as
the most played deck in the tournament. Andrea’s list is a fairly standard
version of the deck.
Can this deck play Jace, the Mind Sculptor or Bloodbraid Elf? If
so, does it want to?
Definitely a no on Jace, but while the deck could perhaps play Bloodbraid
Elf it is pretty clear that it does not want to in its current form.
Bloodbraid Elf isn’t the right creature type, costs four mana, and doesn’t
play well with Aether Vial. It is possible the deck could be retooled to
work Bloodbraid Elf in, but that would likely just end up being a four or
five color aggressive creature deck without the Human synergies.
Is the reintroduction of Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Bloodbraid Elf
to the format a positive or negative for this deck’s success going
forward?
From first to worst; Five-Color Humans stands to be one of the decks that
takes the reintroduction of Jace and Bloodbraid Elf into the format the
hardest.
Jace, the Mind Sculptor decks are likely to be jam packed with removal and
cheap interaction, which can help pick apart all the pieces to the Humans
puzzle. Cards like Meddling Mage and Kitesail Freebooter are fantastic
against the removal-light linear decks of the format, but once your
opponent has a wide variety of different removal spells in their deck, they
start looking like Grizzly Bears and Hovermyr. Mantis Rider does line up
well against Jace, the Mind Sculptor, but the rest of the supporting cast
is not looking good.
The same is true for Bloodbraid Elf decks, which will be packing more
aggression and roadblocks like Tarmogoyf with its copious amounts of
removal. Being able to keep a squad of synergistic creatures together is
going to be difficult.
How is the deck going to have to adapt to the new format?
It’s going to be tough. In order to face the coming onslaught of removal
the deck will likely have to move to more durable threats, like Mirran
Crusader, or try to keep pace in the card advantage war with cards like
Tireless Tracker. Either way, any sort of synergistic creature deck is
going to need to have a plan to deal with buckets of removal while still
maintaining game against the combo decks.
Creatures (27)
- 4 Arcbound Ravager
- 4 Ornithopter
- 2 Master of Etherium
- 4 Steel Overseer
- 2 Memnite
- 3 Etched Champion
- 4 Signal Pest
- 4 Vault Skirge
Lands (16)
Spells (17)
Affinity just never goes away, does it? It has weathered many storms in the
past and has a difficult challenge ahead of it.
Can this deck play Jace, the Mind Sculptor or Bloodbraid Elf? If
so, does it want to?
The idea of playing Jace, the Mind Sculptor in Affinity is actually
appealing in a weird sort of way as a non-creature, non-artifact threat you
can cast on turn 3 with Springleaf Drum or Mox Opal, but Tezzeret, Agent of
Bolas is probably a better choice, regardless. And, no, cascading into a
Memnite isn’t good either.
Is the reintroduction of Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Bloodbraid Elf
to the format a positive or negative for this deck’s success going
forward?
The prognosis for Affinity is very similar to that of Humans, as they are
both synergy-driven aggressive decks – pick apart the important pieces and
they tend to fall apart. While Affinity has the benefit of harder to remove
permanents like Cranial Plating and Etched Champion, which can insulate it
a bit against removal decks, there’s a pretty big problem:
With Bloodbraid Elf and Snapcaster Mage being cornerstones of our new
format, it wouldn’t be surprising to see various Jund or Grixis decks
sporting full playsets of the card. This bodes very poorly for Affinity, as
game 1 artifacts are no longer safe.
How is the deck going to have to adapt to the new format?
With a full playset of Etched Champion and perhaps other non-creature,
non-artifact threats like the aforementioned Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas.
Affinty’s best draws will still be able to win games, but it looks like it
is going to be a rocky road going forward.
Creatures (14)
Lands (17)
Spells (29)
Like Affinity, Burn never goes away, and Takuma’s list features all the
usual suspects.
Can this deck play Jace, the Mind Sculptor or Bloodbraid Elf? If
so, does it want to?
Obviously no on Jace, and while Bloodbraid Elf is a castable card given the
manabase and is an aggressive threat, it is a full two mana more expensive
than any other card in the deck. Bloodbraid Elf, and the card and tempo
advantage it provides, isn’t the type of card a deck playing Lava Spike is
looking for. Burn’s idea of card advantage is to kill their opponent before
they can cast all of their cards.
Is the reintroduction of Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Bloodbraid Elf
to the format a positive or negative for this deck’s success going
forward?
At first glance, the introduction of slower and more grindy midrange decks
to the format seems like a benefit to Burn. Burn doesn’t really care about
the card Jace, the Mind Sculptor at all, and every slower, more grindy card
that gets added is another turn that Burn gets to draw that last Lightning
Bolt. However, there’s one problem:
Both Jund and Grixis have easy access to Collective Brutality, one of the
best cards in the entire format against Burn and great in other matchups
too. Recognizing their slower deck’s weakness to Burn’s speed, most
midrange decks are likely to have a full playset of Collective Brutality
between maindeck and sideboard, which will complicate things drastically
for Burn.
How is the deck going to have to adapt to the new format?
Hope they don’t draw Collective Brutality? It’s a tough one, but maybe Burn
decks could go down the Zoo route a little more, focusing more on
aggressive creatures that don’t die to Collective Brutality and throwing
some more weight behind Atarka’s Command. Of course that runs headlong into
the bevy of expected removal, but if people are playing cards like
Maelstrom Pulse and Detention Sphere to be flexible and deal with
planeswalkers, it could be an avenue.
Creatures (9)
- 3 Wurmcoil Engine
- 2 Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger
- 1 World Breaker
- 1 Emrakul, the Promised End
- 2 Walking Ballista
Planeswalkers (6)
Lands (14)
Spells (31)
Ah, the Karnfather. Can he provide a solution to the midrange madness?
Can this deck play Jace, the Mind Sculptor or Bloodbraid Elf? If
so, does it want to?
Easy nope and nope. Both are far below the scope of what Tron is trying to
accomplish.
Is the reintroduction of Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Bloodbraid Elf
to the format a positive or negative for this deck’s success going
forward?
In theory, Tron and other big mana decks should be excited about the
reintroduction of our midrange overlords, but it’s important to look at the
big picture. With the metagame likely to polarize and Jace and Bloodbraid
Elf pushing out many of the linear creature strategies, the format is going
to shrink. This means sideboards will be much less taxed, and midrange
decks will have plenty of room for anti-big mana cards to shore up the bad
matchups.
Many of these “sideboard” cards may even find themselves in maindecks, as
attacking mana may prove to be an effective strategy in midrange mirrors.
How is the deck going to have to adapt to the new format?
Tron should be in a good place to start, but basic lands and cheaper
threats, like Thragtusk, are going to be important in sideboard games.
Having Tron will not be a given, and they will need other ways to win.
Creatures (16)
Lands (16)
Spells (28)
Our current best “fair” interactive deck in the format, Grixis Death’s
Shadow currently sets the bar for interaction.
Can this deck play Jace, the Mind Sculptor or Bloodbraid Elf? If
so, does it want to?
Death’s Shadow decks, be they Grixis, Jund, or three color can all cast
both Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Bloodbraid Elf. The big question is, do
they want to?
Part of the allure of playing Death’s Shadow over traditional Jund or
Grixis midrange is that it feels like you’re playing Legacy. You can end
games very quickly with your threats and all your spells cost one. The
problem is, in a battle of fair decks, the bigger deck tends to win. We see
this with Baleful Strix and friends beating Delver decks, and the same is
likely to repeat itself in Modern as Death’s Shadow decks go up against the
more traditional midrange Grixis and Jund decks armed with Jace and
Bloodbraid Elf (or both!).
Once you add Jace, the Mind Sculptor or Bloodbraid Elf to your Death’s
Shadow deck, you end up adding cards to help support them, which leads you
down the path of “why am I not just playing Grixis/Jund midrange?”
Is the reintroduction of Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Bloodbraid Elf
to the format a positive or negative for this deck’s success going
forward?
As we said above, in a battle of fair decks the one with bigger, more
powerful spells tends to come out on top. Death’s Shadow is going to be
great against combo decks but struggle against better, bigger fair decks.
How is the deck going to have to adapt to the new format?
If Death’s Shadow is going to continue to see play, it is going to have to
evolve, likely going in the more aggressive direction of something like
Death’s Shadow Zoo. It’s going to need to be able to compete with the fair
decks while maintaining its speed and good game against combo. Death’s
Shadow decks must have an appreciable competitive advantage over other
midrange decks while not being an underdog to said midrange decks.
Creatures (20)
Lands (24)
Spells (16)
Ah yes, one of my least favorite decks of all time.
Can this deck play Jace, the Mind Sculptor or Bloodbraid Elf? If
so, does it want to?
That would be quite the trick.
Is the reintroduction of Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Bloodbraid Elf
to the format a positive or negative for this deck’s success going
forward?
Eldrazi Tron is an interesting one.
Cards like Reality Smasher and Walking Ballista do match up well against
Jace, the Mind Sculptor, and Matter Reshaper, Reality Smasher, Endbringer,
and Chalice of the Void all match up well against cards like Fatal Push and
Lightning Bolt. The Tron manabase is also proven to be successful against
midrange decks, but the deck is not reliant on it to cast its spells.
I’m not a huge fan of the deck, but it looks like it’s not in a bad spot at
all.
How is the deck going to have to adapt to the new format?
Hangarback Walker immediately jumps out from the sideboard as a great
maindeck option in a more midrange, removal-heavy format; and if the deck
can be skewed a bit towards beating midrange while maintaining its powerful
draws and mild disruption, it could go far.
Creatures (12)
Lands (20)
Spells (28)
While it did very poorly at the Pro Tour (as I predicted), Jeskai certainly
makes some gains.
Can this deck play Jace, the Mind Sculptor or Bloodbraid Elf? If
so, does it want to?
Not only can Jeskai play Jace, the Mind Sculptor, it is perhaps one of the
better shells for the deck available. Already full of cheap interaction and
looking for a great threat and card draw engine, Jace is a no-brainer
inclusion to the deck.
Is the reintroduction of Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Bloodbraid Elf
to the format a positive or negative for this deck’s success going
forward?
It certainly changes things, with the biggest hits coming to the
three-drops.
Spell Queller is a huge loser for many of the same reasons that Kitesail
Freebooter and Meddling Mage look bad out of Humans. If it lives, Spell
Queller is amazing; but if it’s just going to die early and often, it’s a
huge liability.
On the opposite side of the spectrum is Geist of Saint Traft, who is
phenomenal against removal spells and great at attacking planeswalkers,
making it a standout.
How is the deck going to have to adapt to the new format?
The big question is going to be exactly what direction Jeskai is going to
go. These sorts of Spell Queller/Geist of Saint Traft versions of the deck
are much more midrange than control, but they can also skip on those cards
for big finishers like Search for Azcanta, Ancestral Vision, or Sphinx’s
Revelation. There are plenty of tools available to Jeskai for playing long,
grindy games; the question is just going to be which one fits best and what
competitive advantages it ends up having over Grixis.
Creatures (6)
Lands (14)
Spells (40)
Like Jeskai Control, U/R Gifts Storm was another big bust at the Pro Tour.
Can this deck play Jace, the Mind Sculptor or Bloodbraid Elf? If
so, does it want to?
While Bloodbraid Elf is out of the question for a variety of reasons, Jace,
the Mind Sculptor is actually an interesting plan B for the deck. We’ve
seen Jace out of Sneak and Show sideboards in Legacy before, and it could
be a sneaky tool for the Storm sideboard as well.
Is the reintroduction of Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Bloodbraid Elf
to the format a positive or negative for this deck’s success going
forward?
Storm had a very poor showing at the Pro Tour, likely running afoul of the
many Five-Color Humans and Burn decks. So if that’s the case and those
decks get worse, things should be good for Storm, right?
Unfortunately for Grapeshot lovers, probably not.
Storm is a deck that is based around a critical mass of spells and an
important creature, which tends to match up poorly against an army of
discard and removal spells. All the interaction that Jund and Grixis decks
are likely to bring to the table is going to be tough for Storm to
overcome.
How is the deck going to have to adapt to the new format?
Storm is in an interesting spot. If the midrange decks end up slowing down
considerably and cannibalizing themselves to try and win the mirror with
tons of powerful, clunky cards, Storm may be able to capitalize by just
being that much faster. Storm also has a reasonable amount of resilience,
and all the discard spells in the world don’t matter too much against ten
1/1 Goblin tokens on turn 2.
Storm is a very powerful deck and is adaptable; I would not be surprised to
see it survive.
And So Much More
There are far too many Modern decks to be able to cover them all in a
single article, but you can extrapolate how other decks will fare based on
everything we’ve gone over here. A few other key points about our upcoming
high-interaction Modern format:
– Synergistic creature decks will suffer, as it will be harder to keep the
correct ones on the battlefield to make your synergies work. This means
tribal decks as well as various Collected Company decks.
– Highly linear decks will suffer if the format ends up polarizing into a
smaller pool of viable decks, as there will be more sideboard slots
available to attack them.
– Creatureless decks will gain some value as they are able to blank many of
their opponent’s cards in game 1s, but they will need to be able to beat
discard as well as their opponent’s sideboards.
– Midrange decks are going to need a very good reason to
not play either Jace, the Mind Sculptor or Bloodbraid Elf, which means
decks like traditional Abzan or Mardu Pyromancer need to answer some tough
questions.
– Mana denial probably moves up a notch if people start to play three-color
decks with a lot of high end spells.
Overall I’m concerned but hopeful for the health of the Modern format.
I’ve been having a lot of fun brewing and playing with Jace, the Mind
Sculptor and Bloodbraid Elf on my stream and
otherwise, and am excited to see how the first big SCG Tour stop with the
new format turns out. Only time will tell!
Bonus decklist:
Creatures (23)
- 4 Lotus Cobra
- 4 Oracle of Mul Daya
- 4 Arbor Elf
- 3 Avenger of Zendikar
- 4 Courser of Kruphix
- 4 Tireless Tracker
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (19)
Spells (14)
- 5 Forest
- 1 Island
- 4 Utopia Sprawl
- 4 Explore