Here it is, folks: the Legacy statistics breakdown from July to October. The results are in, the votes are tallied, and Vial Goblins is the big winner by a considerable margin. From the tournament data, it’s a Tier unto itself.
Before I get to the statistics, I want to explain a few things. These results include every twenty-person Grand Prix Trial or large-sized event with a definite Top 8. I didn’t include smaller GPTs because those results are not statistically useful; a sixteen-person tournament has four rounds and a cut to the Top 8, which makes it very easy for one player or deck to get lucky and T8.
I also did not include twenty-person non-GPT events; the cutoff for large events was StarCityGames Richmond Duel for Duals. Without any information about those events, I can not include them. It is far too easy for a few dominating players or decks to distort a twenty-person weekly Legacy tournament — and while that provides an excellent exercise in metagaming, it makes it too easy for those results to be distorted. I also want to prevent one or two weekly tournaments from being over-represented in the results.
The goal of this article is to try and predict what will show up at Grand Prix: Philadelphia, so I only wanted to include the sorts of events that the people likely to go to Philadelphia would travel to. There were also several tournaments that I wanted to include, but could not because of incomplete Top 8 data. This is one reason why I ask for full decklists, because then I can provide a consistent naming scheme (see WW and Sligh/RDW below), but also because it allows me to make sure a deck is right. I can’t use a tournament Top where two decks have question marks next to them, and one of them is “Survival of the Fittest, I think.”
(Apologies to Philip Stanton, whose formatting I ripped because it worked)
What’s T8ing?
25 Vial Goblins (1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7, 7, 7, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8)
8 Reset High Tide {Solidarity} (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, 5, 7)
8 U/W Landstill (2, 3, 3, 5, 6, 6, 7, 8)
5 Red Green Survival Advantage (2, 3, 5, 5, 6)
3 Burn (1, 5, 8)
3 Angel Stompy (4, 7, 8)
3 R/W/G Aggro-Control {San Diego Zoo} (2, 4, 7)
2 U/W/G Threshold (1, 1)
2 Gamekeeper/Salvagers {Golden Grahms} (1, 3)
2 G/W/R Survival (1, 4)
2 U/W/R Landstill (2, 3)
2 Red Deck Wins (2, 7)
2 U/W Fish (2, 7)
2 MonoWhite Control {Rabid Wombat} (2, 7)
2 Ravager Affinity (2, 8)
2 Belcher Combo (3, 6)
2 Sligh/RDW* (3, 8)
2 White Weenie* (5, 8)
1 Countersliver (1)
1 Enchantress (1)
1 Sligh (2)
1 Ill-Gotten Gains Combo {Iggy Pop} (2)
1 U/G Madness (3)
1 Suicide Black (4)
1 B/W Control (4)
1 B/G/r Survival (4)
1 Aluren (4)
1 U/R Landstill (5)
1 Survival Combo {Full English Breakfast} (5)
1 MonoBlack Control (5)
1 Life (6)
1 Angry Tradewind Survival (6)
1 R/G Beats (6)
1 U/W/R Vial Survival (6)
1 Pox (7)
1 Zombie Infestation Reanimator (8)
* — Because I don’t always get decklists, I wasn’t sure exactly what these were, so I left them generic. The WW might have been Angel Stompy or Wayfarer White Weenie, and the RDW/Sligh could have been either.
Archetype T8ing
42 Aggro
16 Combo
11 Aggro-Control
11 Survival
11 Landstill
5 Other Control
Tournament-Winning Decks
4 Vial Goblins
2 U/W/G Threshold
1 Reset High Tide {Solidarity}
1 G/W/R Suvival
1 Gamekeeper/Salvagers {Golden Grahms}
1 Enchantress
1 Countersliver
1 Burn
Metagame occurrence (by percentage of all T8 decks)
Jul., Aug., Sep., Oct.
(decks appearing only in one month are omitted)
__2, _1.5, .833, .333 U/W Landstill
__1, __0, .167, __0 U/W/R Landstill
__2, _1.5, .833, .333 Total Landstill archetypes
Jul., Aug., Sep., Oct.
__0, __0, .667, .333 Total Other Control archetypes
Jul., Aug., Sep., Oct.
__1, __0, _0.5, .333 R/GSA
__2, __.5, 1.17, .333 Total Survival archetypes
Jul., Aug., Sep., Oct.
__0, ___1, .667, 0.667 Reset High Tide
__0, ___0, .167, 0.333 Gamekeeper/Salvagers
__0, ___1, _1.5, 1.667 Total Combo archetypes
Jul., Aug., Sep., Oct.
__1, ___0, .167, __0 U/W/G Threshold
__0, ___0, .167, .333 U/W Fish
__1, _0.5, __1, ___1 Total Aggro-Control archetypes
Jul., Aug., Sep., Oct.
__1, ___0, .167, __0 RDW
__1, ___2, 1.17, __3 Vial Goblins
__1, _0.5, ___0, .333 Angel Stompy
__0, _0.5, .167, __0 Wayfarer White Weenie
__0, __1, .167, __0 Burn
__0, __0, .167, .333 Ravager Affinity
__3, 4.5, 2.83, 4.333 Total Aggro archetypes
Top 5 Cards by month:
(I’m not including a lot of analysis here, because Top 8s were only available for five tournaments total)
July:
28 Mountain
19 Forest
17 Wasteland
16 Swords to Plowshares
14 Flooded Strand
August:
50 Mountain
24 Wasteland
20 Swords to Plowshares
16 Mogg Fanatic
16 Disenchant
September:
83 Mountain
49 Forest
35 Wasteland
32 Wooded Foothills
32 Brainstorm
Most Frequent Cards (Excepting Basic Lands)
Wasteland
Swords to Plowshares
Force of Will
There’s not too much to say about the data here, since the results are somewhat unsurprising. The data falls along expected lines: there is a clear delineation between Goblins as the top deck and the rest of the Tier One in terms of T8 showings, and then the rest of the format.
The one significant thing I found is that there were a few decks with unusually high win percentages. U/W/G Threshold Top 8ed twice and won both times. By contrast, U/W Landstill placed in the Top 8 eight times, and failed to win any of them. The main thing this suggests is that the U/W/G Threshold players had very good pilots; it is not a deck that can automatically win out, but in the right field with a good pilot the deck can do very well.
The other thing this tells me is that the decks that are winning tournaments have a good plan against Vial Goblins. You are almost guaranteed to see a Vial Goblins deck in the Top 8 of any given tournament, and one-sixth of those Top 8 appearances took home victory. U/W Landstill can crush most any given aggro field with the right metagaming tools, but its Goblins matchup is not consistent enough to win a tournament — especially with the rise of combo.
There is a significant metagame trend towards combo decks and away from Landstill, with every other archetype staying consistent. I expect this trend to continue, especially with GP: Philadelphia right around the corner, and the pros likely to unveil some new tech. In the typical metagame clock, aggro beats control which beats combo which beats aggro — and while this is an oversimplification, it bears examining. In a format which is 44% aggro (as represented by the T8 data), it is hard for a dedicated control deck to exist and do well… Especially when that aggro field is dominated by Vial Goblins, a deck which has strategic superiority over Landstill.
Control’s downfall is exacerbated both by the rise of good aggro-control decks, and also by the two new Stax decks: Stephen Menendian Flame Vault Stax and Christopher Coppola Angel Stax. These decks have good excellent matchups against control and combo, but struggle more with aggro decks. Because Landstill is seen as the defining Legacy deck, it takes all the heat, allowing the little red men to slip in and actually steal the #1 slot. Then, as the only counter-based control deck declines, combo decks now slip in and steal the T8 slots. Most of the combo decks up to this point steamroll aggro decks but lose to decks packing significant countermagic or hand disruption — so until a good control deck with a combo finish springs up, expect to see Goblins versus High Tide.
The significant X-factor here is the introduction of Ravnica. No tournaments have been reported after October 20, 2005 and the introduction of Ravnica into the environment. Ravnica brings with it two new cards that potentially change the metagame. The first is Time Vault, and this card has been beaten to death, so I will be brief. Josh Silvestri Flame Vault combo deck has the potential to beat up on control while still racing aggro, and I’ve already spoken about Flame Vault Stax’s wrecking ball potential against control in a previous article.
The other interesting card is Life from the Loam. The Pro Tour: Los Angeles results bear out how nutty this card is, and significant work is being done on all the Legacy sites in order to build a good Dredge Psychatog deck for Philadelphia. Life from the Loam gives Tog long-term inevitability and makes its draw engine virtually uncounterable (Hinder or Dissipate, anyone?) in order to beat up on control (as well as dredging Nightmare Void) and it can already run Engineered Plague and Pernicious Deed to beat up on aggro decks. If you fear combo, you can get Duress, Cabal Therapy and Hymn to Tourach from the board to beat combo decks. I fully expect to see both a Time Vault deck and a Psychatog deck in the Top 8 of Grand Prix: Philadelphia.
Before the cries of “Ban Aether Vial!” and “Ban Goblin Lackey!” start in the forums, I want to express my thoughts on the matter: fact is, there is a significant lack of Engineered Plague and Pyroclasm, both in the Top 8s across the board and in all ranks of large tournaments like StarCityGames Richmond’s Duel for Duals (the tournament we have the most data on). I touched on that issue in my previous article, but I will reiterate my position: You cannot run only four-mana board sweepers and Swords to Plowshares and expect to beat Goblins. The deck can run up to four Wastelands and four Rishadan Ports to screw with your lands, can goldfish a victory on turn 4-5, and can cast Goblin Ringleader to refill.
Double-Engineered Plague, however, will beat every card in the deck that does not say “Destroy target enchantment” — and if you are really concerned about Goblins (and you should be), you need access to Engineered Plague. Likewise, Pyroclasm kills every threat in the format that you’re worried about (except some of the high-end stuff out of the Survival decks).
Yet the opposite is true; decks are running Wrath of God and Swords to Plowshares over Pyroclasm and Engineered Plague. Until people build their maindecks properly to defeat the field, there is no reason to call for a bannings. When Goblins wins through Engineered Plagues out of every sideboard and can race all the combo decks, then you have to start worrying. Don’t worry until then; all you have to do is look at this Extended season to see that the deck is beatable.
There is a startling lack of international tournament results. However, most of the European areas seem to be dominated by Vintage, mainly in proxy-less tournaments. Also, the first Grand Prix is in the United States, and all the Legacy Grand Prixs are in the United States. Traditionally Legacy has had a strong following in certain segments of the US of A, and so that is where the majority of tournament results come from. The regional appeal of Legacy seems to be concentrated in the NY/Massachusetts, Ohio/Indiana/Philadelphia, and Virginia/Maryland/Kentucky areas (I am painting with a wide brush, mind you), and most of the tournaments and players seem to be concentrated there (not counting a significant crowd in Texas which appear not to be represented by tournaments).
I really need more tournament data for this sort of analysis to be useful. If you have a large (thirty- to fifty-person) tournament, please send me an e-mail with the T8 decklists, the location, the date, the number of people. (And send it to [email protected] too, so that we can enter it into our deck database — The Ferrett) This makes frequency analysis of cards like Pithing Needle or Force of Will much more useful.
Kevin Binswanger
[email protected]
Appendix:
Syracuse, NY
07/16/05
73 players
U/W/G Threshold
RDW
U/W/R Landstill
Vial Goblins
R/GSA
U/W/R Vial Survival
U/W Landstill
Angel Stompy
Baltimore, Maryland
08/13/05
54 players
Reset High Tide
Wayfarer White Weenie
Vial Goblins
Angel Stompy
Burn
ATS
Reset High Tide
Burn
Indianapolis, Indiana
08/28/08
151 players
Vial Goblins
Sligh
U/W Landstill
Vial Goblins
UR Landstill
U/W Landstill
SD Zoo
Vial Goblins
Louisville, Kentucky
09/10/05
30 players
U/W/G Threshold
Ill-Gotten Gains (Iggy Pop)
Gamekeeper/Salvagers
SD Zoo
Full English Breakfast
R/GSA
RDW
U/W Landstill
Pittsfield, Massachusetts
09/10/05
20 players
G/W/R Survival
Ravager Affinity
Sligh/RDW
G/W/R Survival
U/W Landstill
R/G Beats
Vial Goblins
Sligh/RDW
Rockville, Maryland
09/10/05
39 players
Enchantress
MWC
U/W Landstill
Vial Goblins
Reset High Tide
Life
Vial Goblins
Vial Goblins
Delaware, Ohio
09/11/05
28 players
Burn
SD Zoo
UG Madness
BGr Survival
MBC
U/W Landstill
Vial Goblins
Vial Goblins
Claymont, Delaware
09/17/05
32 players
Vial Goblins
U/R/W Landstill
Reset High Tide
Vial Goblins
Reset High Tide
Belcher
Pox
Wayfarer White Weenie
Richmond, Virginia
09/25/05
59 players
Vial Goblins
U/W Fish
R/GSA
Solidarity
Reset High Tide
Vial Goblins
MWC
ZI Reanimator
Butler, Pennsylvania
10/02/05
27 players
Vial Goblins
Reset High Tide
Belcher
BW Control
White Weenie
Vial Goblins
White Weenie
Affinity
Indianapolis, Indiana
10/09/05
21 players
Gamekeeper/Salvagers
Landstill
Vial Goblins
Aluren
Reset High Tide
Vial Goblins
Angel Stompy
Vial Goblins
Vancouver, Washington
10/15/05
22 players
CounterSliver
R/GSA
Vial Goblins
Suicide Black
Vial Goblins
Vial Goblins
U/W Fish
Vial Goblins