In twelve hours, I fly out to Hawaii. There will sun, fun, beaches, good times and probably some Pro Tour or summink like that. The format will be Standard, but with Guildpact distorting any previous views on the metagame, things could get some exciting down in the pit… and that’s where I’m gonna be, bringing it all to you along with those plucky lads from MagictheGathering.com. So today, nine hours before I need to check in at the airport, I will go ahead and make some pretty bold, brash and down right awful predictions about what I think we are gonna see, and what that might do to card prices on Magic Online.
So let’s first have a look at card prices. Remember that (x-y) is last week’s price.
Howling Mine 2-3 (2-4)
Pithing Needle 25-27 (25-27)
Umezawa’s Jitte 10-11 (10-11)
With Howling Mine dropping slightly, taking it back down to its usual price, it looks like the Owl deck may have been a bit of a flash in the pan.
Cranial Extraction 7-9 (7-9)
Dark Confidant 3-4 (3-4)
Kokusho, the Evening Star 7-8 (6-8)
Kagemaro, First to Suffer 7-8 (6-8)
The Big Black Beaters are going up in value a little. An increase in buy price means they will probably soon go up in sell price too.
Gifts Ungiven 5-6 (5-6)
Kami of the Crescent Moon 3-4 (2-4)
Keiga, the Tide Star 3-5 (3-5)
Meloku, the Clouded Mirror 5-6 (5-6)
The buy price for Kami of the Crescent Moon is a bit misleading. Most people are advertising at one or two tickets at most, but there is a bot showing a guy price of 3.5… I’m willing to bet it’s AFK somewhat. Meloku looks like it will soon be selling for seven; when I looked, I could only see one guy selling it for six. Everyone else seems to be sandbagging for a higher price.
Glare of Subdual 2-3 (2-3)
Loxodon Hierarch 4-6 (4-6)
Arashi, Sky Asunder 7-8 (7-8)
Birds of Paradise 5-6 (4-6)
Greater Good 2-4 (2-4)
Kodama of the North Tree 2-4 (3-4)
Char 3-4 (3-4)
Magnivore 3-4 (2-4)
Wildfire 3-5 (4-5)
Isamaru, Hound of Konda 3-4 (2-4)
Wrath of God 8-10 (8-10)
Yosei, the Morning Star 4-5 (4-5)
So, there’s really very little changing at this point. I guess the point of interest will be after the Pro Tour – although with Guildpact only just coming out, people will be clamoring to buy those in the meantime.
Now, let’s take a look at the lands. In the past, I have only featured the ones that have appeared in the Top 8’s I’ve peered at, but because we can expect the painland counterparts to the Dual Lands in Guildpact to suddenly become sought after, I’ll include those as well. Before you go thinking about just how terribly smart and preemptive I am for that, let me just set you straight here. If it wasn’t for Vyolynce’s post in the forums, I would have forgotten to add them to my Watch List until some time after the Pro Tour. Adding them now will (hopefully) give us a fuller picture of any price increase that may happen.
Forge[/author]“]Battlefield [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author] 7-8 (7-9)
Brushland 5-7 (5-7)
Llanowar Wastes 7-9 (7-9)
Shivan Reef 11-13 (11-13)
Underground River 7-8 (6-8)
Yavimaya Coast 7-9 (7-9)
Karplusan Forest 7-8 (—)
Caves of Koilos 7-9 (—)
Adarkar Wastes 5-7 (—)
Sulfurous Springs 4-6 (—)
Overgrown Tomb 7-9 (7-9)
Sacred Foundry 6-8 (6-8)
Temple Garden 7-9 (6-8)
Watery Grave 7-9 (7-9)
Well! It seems people have been stocking up on Karplusan Forests and Caves of Koilos already! I can see the Karplusans, what with people already playing Zoo, and I guess you might need a Caves or two for Green/Black/White. For comparison, Adarkar Wastes and Sulfurous Springs are lower, mostly because we don’t have the corresponding Dual Lands for them, and won’t have for a wee while yet. Temple Garden has climbed since last week, which perhaps indicates a rise in popularity in the Green/White/Black decks.
Okay, onwards to the Pro Tour that, y’know, is happening this coming weekend. First, some vague predictions about decks we’ve seen already. I think we’ll see quite a few Loxodon Hierarchs, both in GhaziGlare style decks and the Green/Black/White. In fact, I think there will be some builds of GhaziGlare that don’t even bother running the Glare of Subdual. They can always sideboard in that dastardly Enchantment to fight off the Aggro Decks if they have to.
While I’m sure some people will try to run plain old White/Red Aggro, I’m pretty sure there is no reason not to play Green to complete the transformation into a Zoo build, now that you have access to Stomping Ground. Kird Ape gives something like infinite two power one drops, and Moldervine Cloak is such a beating that I’m sure someone will end up calling cops and us coverage gents will have some ‘splaining to do.
I don’t think we’ll see the Ebony Owl Netsuke deck. I could be wrong, but I certainly wouldn’t put money on it.
I think we’ll definitely see some Blue/Black control, although probably not the Tron variant. Kagemaro is a swift kick in the knee in that deck. Every time I’ve seen it played, it appeared to be a 7/7 for five mana, which could also conveniently clear the board if the need arose. This will be one of the more Counterspell intensive decks in the format.
The other Blue deck is Blue/Red Tron, which isn’t so much a Counterspell deck as a deck that currently uses, abuses, and (in my hands at least) misuses the fast mana to power out Keigas and Blazes up the nose. Other than Steam Vents, Izzet Signet and Electrolyze, I don’t think Guildpact can be accused of breaking this deck any further than it already is. All of the card drawing, Urzatron lands and Fat Nasties were already available and already being played to success. That doesn’t change the fact that with will most likely be the default option for a Control deck, and someone will most likely push through a good result or two with it.
Critical Mass, maybe splashing for Black, may see some light and will probably do okay.
I’m betting nobody bothers with a traditional Gifts Ungiven deck, although a Greater Good Gifts deck similar to the one played by Frank Karsten to a second place finish at Worlds is entirely possible. I just think that the deck is a little too intricate to bother with, and people will instead elect to go with Blue/Red Tron.
Speaking of Frank Karsten, he hypothesized a Black/White control build a few weeks back, and something tells me we’ll see something like that shine through. Although, it could be that there’s no point running just Black and White when Green is practically free in that deck, and probably quite beneficial to boot. Still, I’m sure we’ll see a bunch of Yoseis causing quite a ruckus throughout the weekend.
Could you describe the ruckus?
(80’s teen movies For the Win!)
(Wait, many of you are too young for that, aren’t you?)
As I mentioned earlier, I don’t think anyone will bother with a straight Red/Green deck. Again for the reason that you get another color for free anyway, as you’re throwing away perfectly good one drops in White. The only interesting thing will be if someone tries to risk the Mana base by stretching the deck to a fourth color. I’m assuming Black for Dark Confidant and maybe Putrefy slash Mortify, but stranger things have happened. I guess someone could possibly try for Four-Color Aggro, where the fourth color is Blue for Mana Leak and Remand, but I just think Dark Confidant is probably better.
Lastly, I have heard rumor that some people have been experimenting with Blue/White Control. Apparently, being able to play Wrath of God on turn 4 and then Meloku on turn 5 is some good. However, if that’s the only unfair thing the deck does, then it’s probably a little outgunned I’m guessing.
Where’s that limb? I’m going out on it. I think that the Top 8 will be two or three Zoo decks, one or two Blue/Red Tron deck or decks, one Black/White deck, one Blue/Black Kagemaro deck, one Green/Black/White deck, and something weird with Wildfire. Simply because Wildfire is awesome and I love it when things go kablooey!
(That’s an 80’s cartoon reference that may well be too obscure, even for those of you who were old enough to witness it.)
(Basically, it was from an episode of Duck Tales, and Donald was causing the Admiral of his ship no end of trouble.)
(I don’t recall where Huey, Dewy, Looie and Uncle Scrooge were at this point.)
The Top 8 results will cause a further rise in the value of Keiga, and Loxodon Hierarch, which the Zoo decks will be at least boarding, if not maindecking. Kagemaro will go up because he will make the finals, and people will mysteriously want to see if they can download episodes of Duck Tales because I have reminded them of their glorious childhood. Anyway, there you have it – let’s see just how wrong I am in a matter of days!
Bonus music material: To ease the boredom of my ten-hour flight to Hawaii, I will be listening to “Sychestra”, the new album from Devin Townsend. You know, that strange Canadian chap I was talking about a couple of weeks ago? From Strapping Young Lad? Anyway, this is another solo album from him (technically with the Devin Townsend Band, but he writes everything so whatever) and it is simply stunning. I can’t believe how much this guy blows me away with his complex and layered music. I don’t get it… he makes other music taste bad. Which really is okay, because I’m perfectly happy listening to his stuff on repeat.
Right, that’s enough from me. It’s high time I finished packing, and maybe went to bed for a little bit. I’ll see you all from the floor this weekend!
(Note: it is quite likely that next weeks article will just be about the Pro Tour. This is pretty much unavoidable.)
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