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The Online Outlook #10 — Pinning Down The Standard Metagame

Today’s Online Outlook charts the past week’s Metagame Shift on Magic Online. I present twelve Top 8 breakdowns for your pleasure and perusal, and we can see just what’s winning — and what’s losing — in the ever-changing world of Magic Online. Does Dragonstorm still destroy? Is Gruul Cruel? Does Gruul actually rhyme with Cruel? Inquiring minds want to know!

We’ve a lot to get through today, so let’s get to it!

Today we’re looking at the past week’s ups and downs in the Magic Online Standard Metagame. In total, there were twelve Standard Premier Events, each offering a 2x prize payout, and each fielding between 32 and 57 players. Sadly, there hasn’t been a 100+ player 4x for a while… but with Regionals approaching, I’m sure that will change. Especially when Future Sight goes live.

Let’s kick it old style, and look at the results one-by-one…

Standard x2 – #958505 – 39 players

1 – killer1571 – Gruul w/ Cryoclasm main
2 – topdeck_cn – Dragonstorm
3 – D e n T z – Gruul
4 – hman56 – Dralnu du Louvre
5 – HataBo – U/B/W Control
6 – NSL – U/B Pickles
7 – SuperSize – Solar Flare
8 – trevorgower – Gruul

First thing you’ll notice… I’ve decided to Name and Shame the winners! I mean, look at them there, thinking they’re cool and hard with their underscores and WaCkY SpElLiNgS. They need taking down a peg or two.

Second thing we notice from this Top 8… it seems Gruul and Dragonstorm are indeed the top two decks at the moment. Placing first and third, and a little further down in eighth, Gruul is proving conclusively that if you’re Aggro then Red and Green are the only way to be. While there are still some dissenters to this philosophy (and we’ll see those later on), it’s hard to argue with such overwhelming numbers across the board. As for the perfect build, it seems that Giant Solifuge and Burning-Tree Shaman are par for the course these days. In first place, killer1571 ran Cryoclasm main, and Avalanche Riders either main or sideboard, but I see that as Exception rather than Rule. In fact, while I liked that idea at first, having Cryoclasm as a black in game 1 Gruul mirrors seems foolish. Especially when the deck should roll right over Blue decks without it.

There’s nothing fresh to see here. We have a smattering of Big Mana and Control decks, all perfectly acceptable, and the popular U/B Pickles variant. That sort of tricksy Mid-Range deck – another of which is Solar Flare – is gaining in popularity. Gruul, it seems, has rich pickings.

Standard x2 – #958718 – 48 players

1 – Podlos – Izzetron w/ Detritivore
2 – realize – U/B Pickles
3 – sakurai – Gruul
4 – Stobislaw – Dragonstorm
5 – Sayron1 – Mono-Black Rack
6 – Squall944 – Solar Flare
7 – wildhund – Gruul
8 – mirakurufait – U/G Tron

The second tournament again offers Gruul and Dragonstorm decks, but this time the Big Mana of Izzetron took the top spot. In the quarterfinals between eventual winner Podlos and the unfortunate mirakurufait, I bore witness to the savagery of the suspended Detritivore. I don’t care how many Willbenders you’ve got working overtime, that’s a race you’re simply not winning.

Making an impact in the tournament, but not much of one in the Top 8, there’s Sayron1 with the fringe favorite Mono-Black Rack deck. Sadly, it seemed to have mana issues before dying, even though double Rack early threatened to make a game of it.

Standard x2 – #959017 – 48 players

1 – topdeck_cn – Dragonstorm
2 – larrosa – Gruul
3 – Rosarch – Gruul
4 – Tulio_Jaudy – Gruul
5 – cjhunter – Zoo
6 – ZechMaples – Gruul
7 – Fishboysi91 – Dragonstorm
8 – snakez3 – Mono-Black Rack

Third up, and we have our first repeat offender – topdeck_cn. He placed second in the first tournament, and this little shindig sees him go one better. His weapon of choice both times? Dragonstorm. Of course, looking at the majority of the Top 8, it’s easy to see why the uber-fast combo deck (Flash Not Included) went all the way.

Second, third, fourth, fifth, and sixth place: AGGRO!

Gruul went wild in this Top 8. Spring Break Wild.

Although cjhunter tried an old friend in order to attempt some new tricks, Zoo fought well but ultimately fell short. The 3/4 Burning-Tree Shaman puts paid to those pesky Watchwolves, and Gruul can easily match them on turn 2 as bloodthirsting up a Scab-Clan Mauler is easier than you’d expect.

Seventh and eighth bring us more Dragonstorm and Mono-Black Rack decks. Still nothing truly innovative.

Standard x2 – #959690 – 34 players

1 – kotarosato04 – U/B Tron
2 – dadadad – Dralnu du Louvre
3 – strong sad – Dralnu du Louvre
4 – The_Beast_44 – B/W Aggro
5 – opradvo – Mono-Green Aggro
6 – ExtremeUA – Gruul
7 – Tulio_Jaudy – Dragonstorm
8 – ihatepants – Solar Flare

Control kicks aggro in the nadgers for this Top 8, with Gruul fading to a single entry. Still, the man-plan does offer up a few more options here, with Mono-Green Aggro making a return to the fold. What’s the matter, opradvo? Can’t afford the Mountains?

In all seriousness, Mono-Green Aggro has fallen out of favor for the more consistent (and farther-reaching) Gruul equivalent. It seems strange, as a turn 2 Silhana Ledgewalker followed by a Moldervine Cloak does seem strong enough to walk over the matchup. Then just drop a few chumps to stop the damage getting through, or to soak up some burn… a winning proposition, maybe?

The other Aggro offering seemed to follow the Panda Connection blueprint, with Ravenous Rats and Shrieking Grotesques. I think I also saw a Jotun Grunt in there somewhere. It seems rather anaemic when facing another Aggro deck, but then again I’m sure the added disruption works a treat against Dragonstorm.

While Dragonstorm did make its obligatory Top 8, the true story of this tournament was the U/B decks taking the eventual plaudits. Two Dralnu du Louvre, finally bested by U/B Tron. At 34 players, this tournament was at the shallow end of the player pool… what that signifies, exactly, is anyone’s guess.

Standard x2 – #959856 – 38 players

1 – Hadzis_cz – Solar Flare
2 – mirakurufait – U/G Tron
3 – Svyatogor – Gruul
4 – zeropool – B/W/R Control
5 – D e n T z – Gruul
6 – LucioM83 – U/B Pickles
7 – Podlos – Izzetron
8 – millennium9999 – Dragonstorm

At last! The fifth tournament in, and something a little more interesting to discuss. Fourth place, zeropool. With B/W/R Control.

This deck looked like a little smasher. Some of the hits, atop the usual mass removal and Signets, included Martyr of Sands, Hide / Seek, and Phyrexian Arena. Some interesting color considerations and concerns, to be sure, but throwing such powerful cards together and sacrificing a goat to the Mana Gods is a strategy I can endorse.

In fact, this fifth tournament saw the first victory this week for a truly fun deck to play (in my opinion). Solar Flare is like Sam the Hobbit – it’s been there and back again. It’s been in and out of the metagame miasma for a number of months, and its star seems to be rising once more.

The noble mirakurufait pops up again, and again he plays Naoki Shimizu U/G Tron deck. Hell, he may well be Naoki for all I know. At any rate, he seems to be the only player running it to any success. In fact, this appears to be a Top 8 with a number of familiar faces. D e n T z returns with his Gruul deck, and Podlos comes back with his Izzetron deck. I presume he’s still running the Detritivores main, but they didn’t do him any good in his quarterfinal match.

Standard x2 – #960131 – 46 players

1 – Brapamival – Dragonstorm
2 – CdC_DemoniC_AngeL_ – G/B Dredge
3 – D e n T z – Gruul
4 – ctrlgg – U/R Snow Control
5 – FFfreak – Dragonstorm
6 – FireAndWater – Rakdos Aggro
7 – s1ckness – B/W/G Mid-Range (Beach House)
8 – fpapini – Gruul

At the midpoint of the breakdown, we have a Top 8 with a few genuine surprises. Two copies of Dragonstorm (one of which won) and two copies of Gruul are no surprise… but the other four decks in the Top 8 most certainly are.

Tackling the "obvious" surprise, we have the second-place G/B Dredge deck. I’ve been testing this a fair bit lately, and I must say it’s powerful if left unchecked. Dragonstorm can be a problem if you don’t see Delirium Skeins, mind. A genuine contender, I feel, until it become a genuine contender. Then the hate will come, and the hate will bum.

Seventh place saw a B/W/G Beach House Mid-Range Control deck rear its fat and bloated head. Wow, I didn’t expect to see one of them doing well. Although I guess it should knock Gruul into a cocked hat. One space up we have Rakdos Aggro, utilizing the Martyr of Ashes as mass removal. Not a strategy I particularly like, but good enough for Top 8 here.

Finally, we have the U/R Snow Control deck that placed fourth. Teferi beats was the usual way to victory, although I did see Stuffy Doll appear in Game 1. I presume a Skred wasn’t far behind, although the opponent conceded before that particular jank became reality. I thought this particular deck was the only viable U/R Snow strategy in the format. The following Top 8, however, proved me wrong…

Standard x2 – #960481 – 39 players

1 – t_shrk – Izzetron
2 – ELPACIFISMO – Izzetron
3 – CdC_DemoniC_AngeL_ – G/B Dredge
4 – shawheenbean – Dragonstorm
5 – Dipterans – U/W/B Tron (Pickles)
6 – Mr.H.Potter – Dragonstorm
7 – PinoPlayer – U/R Snow Storm Ignite Hatching Plans (???!!!)
8 – lynxcat – G/R/B Mid-Range

Mise well deal with this now…

7 – PinoPlayer – U/R Snow Storm Ignite Hatching Plans (???!!!)

W.

T.

F?

Have I missed a memo?

This was a fantastic-looking deck, that sacrificed Hatching Plans to Claws of Gix in order to draw cards, then cast huge stormed Ignite Memories or Empty the Warrens. I’ve not seen its like before, though I bet it’s mentioned somewhere. If anyone can shed more light on this deck, come to the forums.

Izzetron again proved it’s the King of Big Mana, despite a few forays lately into U/B and U/G territory. Can’t argue with first and second. CdC_DemoniC_AngeL_ returned with his G/B Dredge deck, and lynxcat offered some interest with a Sedge Sliver three-color mid-range beatdown deck. This also ran Hypnotic Specter, so again it seems like praying to the Mana Gods is the way forward. Sadly, Sedge Slivers couldn’t make it to the Top 4. Worse still, no Gruul decks made it into the Top 8!

And it’s nice to see Harry Potter proving that he’s a fine wizard. Accio Lotus Bloom!

(Yeah, I’m a geek. Sue me.)

Standard x2 – #960796 – 33 players

1 – zeus77 – U/R Snow Storm Ignite Hatching Plans
2 – Pain Train – Dragonstorm
3 – fpapini – Gruul
4 – bgg88 – B/W Aggro Rack
5 – Edel – B/R Aggro Storm
6 – _Swistak_ – U/B Pickles
7 – Dish – Dralnu du Louvre
8 – kotarosato04 – Dralnu du Louvre

We’re on the home straight now… and this shock win for the U/R Snow Storm Ignite Hatching Plans deck proves it ain’t no flash in the pan. It’s also piloted by a different person to last time (And is piloted by another guy later in this rundown), so either I’ve simply missed the hype on this one or we have a team working on this strategy for a tournament somewhere. Go nag them for a decklist, I’m sure they’d like that. Heh.

Other than that, the only deck of note here is Edel’s B/R Aggro Storm deck. Willy Edel is a fine Magician, but this deck didn’t really grab me in its quarterfinal match. I dunno, maybe if it’d won the whole thing and I had a bigger set of sample data, I’d be singing its praises.

Fourth place saw a B/W Aggro Rack deck kicking up a fuss. This seemed o be more aggro than disruption, with Savannah Lions and the like, though the Rack did a good job of kicking the opponent in the shins should the cards begin to run out.

Standard x2 – #961059 – 49 players

1 – CdC_DemoniC_AngeL_ – G/B Dredge
2 – eudoro_bra – U/B/W Pickles
3 – ST4KZ – U/B Pickles
4 – dadadad – U/W/G Control
5 – Manabogged – B/W/R Control
6 – HookedOnFonix2 – Mono-Red Combo Goblins
7 – Jezzeppi56 – Mono-Black Rack
8 – ZechMaples – Gruul

Four to go, and this tournament sees CdC_DemoniC_AngeL_ finally take a top spot with the powerful G/B Dredge deck. I like this deck, I’ll not lie. Staple a moustache to my lip and call me Bennie. While I’ve got a while before I have to choose my deck for Nationals, I’ve gotta say that G/B Dredge is one of my pre-Regionals favorites. That, and Dragonstorm, obv.

Talking of the Big Red Machine… no Dragonstorm today? Wow. Of course, that doesn’t mean that the other popular deck weren’t around. We have Gruul, Mono-Black Rack, and a couple of Pickles decks all making hay while the sun shines.

Another couple of interesting decks cracked the final table here. The first is Mono-Red Combo Goblins. Mogg Sentry, Ib Halfheart, Mogg War Marshal, and the perennial Goblin-eater Greater Gargadon. Plus, of course, stormage to power out massive Empty the Warrens. Dan Paskins would approve. (By the way, if you’ve not read it yet, I recommend you go read Dan’s article today. It’s a corker.)

Last up, there’s the U/W/G Control deck. A break from the norm: approved!

Of course, I’m still reeling about the demise of Dragonstorm here. Has the hatred reached critical mass? (Down, Mike!)

Standard x2 – #961188 – 32 players

1 – Brapamival – Dragonstorm
2 – Mr.H.Potter – Dragonstorm
3 – tyl26bk – Angelfire
4 – kotarosato04 – U/B Tron
5 – topdeck_cn – Dragonstorm
6 – Jaya BallardDragonstorm
7 – tunan – G/W/U Glare
8 – Unforgiven21 – U/B Pickles Tron

Ah.

It was a calm before the storm.

Four copies of Dragonstorm in the Top 8. Using the power of math, I can inform you that that’s fifty percent!

Harry Potter makes another fine appearance. Fifty points for Griffindor!

Aside from the usual suspects, there are two decks of note here. The first is another old favorite: Angelfire. Another mid-range aggro control deck, this is one deck I can get behind. In fact, I appear to be forming an opinion here… be warned!

Yes, I think it’s fair to say that my love of the out-and-out Aggro strategy has been supplanted by a love of the Mid-Range deck. Ever since Ghazi-Glare did me well at English Nationals last year. (Another mention! He shoots, he scores!)

Talking of Glare, tunan brought an interesting take on strategy, using Mystic Snakes and the like. I presume some sort of Momentary Blink action was on the cards too.

Standard x2 – #961438 – 57 players

1 – Julio Bernabe – G/B Dredge
2 – Rosarch – Gruul
3 – Vasarius – Dragonstorm
4 – Frank Lepore – Solar Flare
5 – eltoro24 – U/R Storm Ignite Hatching Plans (No Snow)
6 – islands – U/B/R Control
7 – Jaya BallardDragonstorm
8 – NinjaVanish – Angelfire

Okay, I’m lagging a little now… let’s finish up with a final push. Two more to go, woo!

This Top 8 seems pretty well-balanced. The Top 2, Gruul and Dragonstorm, are represented, but there are successes from the other players in the metagame. However, no Tron or Dralnu is perhaps nothing more than false hope.

It’s nice to see Dredge offer up another winning performance, and it’s nice to see the U/R Storm Ignite Hatching Plans deck posting another Top 8 (even if the deck ran basic lands instead of snow basics this time out). Solar Flare, Angelfire, and a deck that looked like Block Constructed’s U/B/R Control… all fine choices, each going some way to prove that the format is packed with Tier 2 strategies. R&D is Hannibal Smith, and their plan is coming together.

Standard x2 – #961758 – 41 players

1 – Morat.ru – Dragonstorm
2 – mrwilson – Angelfire
3 – sakurai – Gruul
4 – D e n T z – Gruul
5 – Bugaooo – Dragonstorm
6 – depardiue07 – Dragonstorm
7 – _DissonancE_ – Dralnu du Louvre
8 – Unforgiven21 – U/B Pickles Tron

To end, we have a return to form. The Top 2 decks in the metagame kick serious ass, while the popular Angelfire, Dralnu du Louvre, and U/B Pickles Tron deck make up the numbers.

Same ol’ same ol’.

So what does all this mean?

I’ll forgive you if the results faded into each other somewhat. Twelve Top 8 breakdowns do tend to mingle in the soft centre of the brain. However, we can spot some trends.

First up, the Top 2 decks are obviously Dragonstorm and Gruul. I think that Gruul’s ascendance directly results in the downfall of Dralnu du Louvre. Strange that the deck designed to smash Dralnu – Mono-Green Aggro – is so far off the radar that it can only be seen from Saturn.

Next, it’s clear that there are a number of winning strategies. Tier 2 decks (if that’s what we can call them) are posting consistent finishes, even if the archetypes involved are differing each time. Here are some deck that did well, in spangley list format:

G/B Dredge
Angelfire
Izzetron (perhaps unfairly labelled Tier 2 by this humble reporter)
Solar Flare
Mixed Pickles
Mono-Black Rack

And finally, innovation is definitely possible. Look at U/R Storm Ignite Hatching Plans, or Mono-Red Combo Goblins, or B/R Aggro Storm, or G/W/U Glare, or G/R/B Mid-Range… so many options, so little time.

The metagame is fragmented at the moment. Sure, there’s a clear Tier 1 – Gruul and Dragonstorm – but the rest of it is completely shattered. With so many options, it’s hard to know which way to jump.

Thankfully, Future Sight is coming. While the addition of new cards traditionally muddies the metagame waters, I for one hope that it crystallizes things. Regionals, and Nationals, are just around the corner. I want to choose my weapon of choice from a shortlist of five, not fifty.

Next week, I’m gonna take a little look at some of the more undervalued MTGO formats. Casual fans rejoice!

Until then, remember – you can’t stop the signal.

Craig Stevenson
Scouseboy on MTGO
Mail us at https://sales.starcitygames.com/contactus/contactform.php?emailid=2

Ungrateful Dead

I’ll round out the article with a quick mention for my webcomic, Ungrateful Dead. It charts the story of Tim Tyler, corporate drone. He’s plagued by the Ghost of Jimi Hendrix, who wants him to start a kick-ass rock band. With hilarious results.

Today sees Tim share his dream with Colin, his best friend. It also sees Tim venture out of his house for the first time in… well, forever.

You can read it here. Enjoy!

Craig

PS – The comic also has forums. They are too quiet. Come remedy that.