A lot has been made of the fact that the new Standard, at least so far as we’ve seen it via the SCG Tour event in Indianapolis, is a world of Smuggler’s Thopter. We’ve heard, again and again, that there were 32 Smuggler’s Copters in the Top 8.
The dominance of the card is clearly indicated by that fact. But, we can actually go a little deeper than that, yet. Let’s see how the card correlated to performance.
Top 8: 32 of 32 possible
9-16: 20 of 32 possible
17-32: 36 of 64 possible
33-64: 57 of 128 possible
Put another way, playing Smuggler’s Copter was directly correlated to placing well. How does it compare to wins?
12+: 32 of 32 possible
11: 44 of 76 possible
10: 61 of 116 possible
9: 8 of 32 possible
(Note: only the data for the eight players with nine wins who made Top 64 was available.)
Put visually, this is actually pretty stark. Check out the percentage of decks playing Smuggler’s Copter at each level of success.
It is quite rare that you have this kind of result. It doesn’t mean that you need to have Smuggler’s Copter to win. What it means is that Smuggler’s Copter is directly associated with winning. Just because we have the second coming of Umezawa’s Jitte in Standard in the mix doesn’t mean that Umezawa’s Jitte is the only way to succeed in Magic.
The existence of a card like Umezawa’s Jitte or Smuggler’s Copter in the format simply means that decks that are designed to attack and block are going to have better payoffs for their trouble. If you were going to try to succeed without Umezawa’s Jitte, you needed to be doing something very powerful indeed to compete. The same is true of Smuggler’s Copter.
Both cards have the same fundamental weakness: they need creatures in order to be operated.
This presents an opportunity.
They both have the same fundamental strength: it isn’t hard to make use of the card, and the payoff is incredibly powerful.
In the past, I definitely feel as if there was a place to be found that could exploit a situation like this. Way back in the day, I created one of Cedric’s favorite decks, Eminent Domain, specifically to exploit a metagame like this.
Creatures (6)
Lands (23)
Spells (31)
Sideboard
In a world of Umezawa’s Jitte, running massive creature suppression was the name of the game, but beyond that, there needed to be a way to make the attack from the equipped creature irrelevant. At the time, that meant Icy Manipulator. Altogether, the package of sweep, nullifying the Jitte (with tapping), and targeted removal made for a combination that made Umezawa’s Jitte look silly.
Is there something similar that might be able to be found in the top decks of the Standard Open in Indianapolis?
We do have a kind of Icy Manipulator, after all, and it is reasonable as an anti-Thopter card.
Creatures (5)
Planeswalkers (6)
Lands (26)
Spells (23)
While I’m not suggesting that Ratliff’s deck would necessarily be improved by finding room for Deadlock Trap, I wouldn’t be surprised if a part of the reason that it exists in the deck is to help fight against decks where Fumigate is a great card. If you’re forced to extend a little more, Fumigate gets better.
No, Deadlock Trap isn’t the end-all-be-all for fighting Vehicles, even with Glimmer of Genius around to help give it more Energy. More importantly, Gunnar Ratliff’s deck includes a combination of spot removal (Skywhaler’s Shot, Immolating Glare) and the sweeping power of Fumigate, not to mention Quarantine Field to help out by taking out Vehicles.
In a way, Quarantine Field is a somewhat “new” card, in that Dromoka’s Command has held it out of the format for so long. Besides that, though, there are a great many new cards in Gunnar’s deck:
That’s just the maindeck. Out of the sideboard, there are even more cards to contend with.
Now that we can see the world of Vehicles that we’re living in, Torrential Gearhulk feels like it is just a little bit too slow to be running as a four-of. Similarly, Cataclysmic Gearhulk, while powerful, feels like it doesn’t truly do enough in this new world, though I am very sympathetic to the first copy as a “fifth” Fumigate.
I actually really like Dovin Baan here. If you’re otherwise capable doing a decent job of suppressing creatures, it really feels as though Dovin Baan is a great support card. It can help push someone to extend into your Fumigate, and after the fact can be a card draw engine – for that matter, before the fact, it can start doing that, if only to soak up the damage and help you get to a later game.
There is a lot to think about here in Ratliff’s list. While it didn’t finish in the Top 16, it’s worth noting he was tied for Top 16 with his eleven wins. To me, this list shows a lot of potential.
Creatures (13)
- 2 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
- 4 Sylvan Advocate
- 4 Tireless Tracker
- 1 Emrakul, the Promised End
- 1 Ishkanah, Grafwidow
- 1 Noxious Gearhulk
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (24)
Spells (19)
Creatures (16)
- 4 Mindwrack Demon
- 1 Emrakul, the Promised End
- 1 Distended Mindbender
- 2 Ishkanah, Grafwidow
- 4 Grim Flayer
- 3 Filigree Familiar
- 1 Noxious Gearhulk
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (24)
Spells (17)
The top-finishing deck without Smuggler’s Copter, Asa Snyder’s G/B Delirium deck has a lot of hallmarks I personally really like. It doesn’t try to go all-in on delirium with a card like Grim Flayer but instead focuses on a lot of simple, solid cards that can help enable a classic midrange game: dominating the quality on the battlefield through overpowered permanents and removal to keep the opponent’s permanents off the table.
There is only a single new card in Snyder’s list:
The more I think about this card, the more I really, really love it. Four toughness is enough to be able to survive some of the current popular removal, and the card hits really, really hard. Importantly, though, the lifegain and creature removal effect from the card is huge in stabilizing the end-game, and it is a tutorable effect with Traverse the Ulvenwald. With Grapple with the Past and Liliana, the Last Hope, this card could come around multiple times to cause havoc.
In the sideboard, Snyder has a few new cards to bring to the mix:
Of these, I especially like Appetite for the Unnatural, for much the same reason I like Noxious Gearhulk. When you’re playing against any Vehicle-based deck, you really could be under an immense amount of pressure, and the little bits of lifegain feel quite meaningful. On the other hand, it does suffer from a standard game theory problem for the narrow answer: if you draw the narrow answer and they don’t draw the threat, you have that dead card around potentially contributing to your loss. This tends to only be an acceptable situation if they can’t win without the threat.
The new Nissa seems like a great fit to these midrange decks. I can tell you from experience that the card is incredibly versatile, and I’m excited to potentially play it in the new Standard. Whether you’re moving towards an aggressive stance, building up a defense, or just looking for card advantage, it feels like this card does everything.
Lost Legacy seems like a reasonable role-player, especially against Eldrazi, now that Infinite Obliteration is gone. The cost of missing on artifacts feels offset by being able to hit any other spell type. I think it remains to be seen if this kind of card is even necessary, but in the world where some sideboarded games might just come down to the existence of Emrakul, the Promised End, there may be an important home for the card.
Wienburg’s list also adds Filigree Familiar to the mix from Kaladesh, and Wildest Dreams in the sideboard. I’m not necessarily convinced about either of these cards, simply because I wonder if they are too small in their effect on a game for their cost. I love gaining a little life, but without taking care of those critical fliers, often the trade of the card feels like it isn’t particularly effective, even if you are planning on feeding the Foxy Robot to an Eldrazi. Wildest Dreams seems powerful, but even without a tutoring effect, I think I’d rather just go with Seasons Past.
Creatures (25)
- 4 Reflector Mage
- 4 Sylvan Advocate
- 4 Tireless Tracker
- 4 Spell Queller
- 1 Selfless Spirit
- 4 Verdurous Gearhulk
- 4 Servant of the Conduit
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (26)
Spells (5)
Todd Stevens went an entirely different direction from most other players and ran an aggressive deck without Smuggler’s Copter. That being said, there were still several new spells in his list:
If you haven’t seen what an utter beating Verdurous Gearhulk is, perhaps you haven’t played against the card. All by itself, it is an 8/8 trampler, but what really makes the card shine is just creating devastating changes to combat math. This is especially insane when you’re using a flier or a Sylvan Advocate. Still, I would love to have seen something like Gisela, the Broken Blade in the deck to pick up tokens so that the life-math gets totally messed up in a race.
Blossoming Defense feels a bit like a Modern card in this deck and reminds me a lot of Vines of Vastwood. Stymieing a removal spell can sometimes absolutely shut down an attack phase, and there are plenty of times where you use this card, and it feels like you’ve just made an opponent’s turn become an utter disaster.
Servant of the Conduit is particularly worth paying attention to in this deck because of one of the most important payoffs it provides: mana acceleration that is actually well-positioned. Unlike some other accelerants, Servant of the Conduit can not only attack,but also has that extra point of toughness that can really matter, whether it is because of Liliana, the Last Hope or Thraben Inspector. In addition, it really matters as a color fixer and lets Stevens actually play out a turn 3 Tamiyo, Field Researcher or get a turn 3 Clue off Tireless Tracker.
Creatures (6)
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (27)
Spells (24)
Creatures (10)
Planeswalkers (2)
Lands (24)
Spells (24)
Finally, we get to see the newest Modern wonder, Spirebluff Canal, in action.
The U/R Eldrazi deck adds Aether Meltdown to the list of cards that are new to Standard. It runs a pair of the cards maindeck and the other two in the sideboard. This seems like an incredibly reasonable card to run in an anti-creature package. Turning a Smuggler’s Copter into an actual Looter-Equipment is not what most of those aggressive decks want to see happening. Like Gunnar, this deck runs Revolutionary Rebuff, a card I expect to see more play as controlling decks find their voice despite being unable to stop an artifact.
Chandra, Torch of Defiance makes its first appearance in a maindeck here, all the way down at 23rd place. Again, this is out of 500+ players, so this isn’t a slight to the card, but it seems worth noting how low you have to go to see this card when very nearly every deck that placed above it was running red and none of them started a Chandra, Torch of Defiance.
In part, this is probably because, as good as the new Chandra is, it isn’t Flametongue Kavu.
When Flametongue Kavu hit the battlefield, it would often take out two creatures. Chandra is more likely to be a sorcery-speed Warleader’s Helix that only hits creatures: it takes the creature out and then dies, resulting in a gain of life but not the utter card advantage you’re looking for from a card like this. Especially in a Fevered Visions deck, you really want to be either furthering the death of your opponent or getting a massive tempo advantage from a card this expensive. Chandra, Torch of Defiance doesn’t accomplish either of those tasks.
It’s a damn good card, but perhaps it isn’t the card we need right now, or perhaps it isn’t the card we need in a Fevered Visions deck.
Creatures (8)
Lands (22)
Spells (30)
- 3 Kozilek's Return
- 4 Vessel of Nascency
- 4 Aetherworks Marvel
- 4 Woodweaver's Puzzleknot
- 3 Harnessed Lightning
- 4 Glassblower's Puzzleknot
- 4 Attune with Aether
- 4 Cathartic Reunion
Sideboard
Finally, we see the Aetherworks Marvel deck that we’ve all been hoping to see. It even managed to put together eleven wins, which is quite noteworthy. In addition, it has a ton of new cards:
I love the idea of this deck, but I am utterly leery of both of the Puzzleknots in a world where 3/2 Dwarves are attacking on turn 2. I don’t have any data on the number of Aetherworks decks that were at the event, but if you look at the Top 64, you’ll note that this is one of only two Marvel Aetherworks decks that managed to place.
All of the Energy cards are a necessity to this deck, of course. Your payoffs are incredible, with both of the huge Eldrazi triggering their cast trigger off the Aetherworks Marvel. Cathartic Reunion serves as a way to get fresh cards in your hand so it isn’t clogged up with these likely uncastable Eldrazi, and overall, all of these new cards are here to serve the engine of the deck.
Still, if you aren’t under any kind of actual pressure, this kind of deck is an utter beating: witness Daniel Weiser take out his G/B Delirium opponent in about four minutes.
While there are two more decks in the Top 32 that don’t run Smuggler’s Copter, Daniel Duan’s B/W Control and Jeff Hoogland’s Jeskai Flash, neither deck features any cards we haven’t talked about already. Both of these players finished a respectable 10-5, and perhaps with a bit of development either of these decks might be worth more attention.
As for me, I’m on the countdown clock: only a few days until I hop on a plane to Hawaii. Will it be Smuggler’s Copter or anti-Copter? Quite honestly, I’m still working that out. There are a lot of variable to consider, but you can bet that I’ll be studying the SCG Tour results in detail as I do my playtesting.
Be sure to wish me luck! Stay tuned for me again in two weeks!