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Time Spiral Remastered Financial Review, Part 2

Ben Bleiweiss completes his Financial Review of Time Spiral Remastered, including updated information on timeshifted foil rarity.

Sliver Legion, illustrated by Ron Spears

Welcome to the second (and last) of my articles about Time Spiral Remastered! When we left off last week, the majority of white and blue cards were previewed. In today’s article, we’re going to talk about the remaining cards from those colors and everything else that was previewed last week.

The biggest news that came out about Time Spiral Remastered over the past week was that Nelson Brown, WPN rep for Wizards of the Coast (WotC), confirmed that the drop rate on timeshifted foils is one every 27 packs. I ran two scenarios in last week’s article – if each foil dropped at the foil mythic rare rate (once every four boxes) and if each foil dropped at the foil rare rate (once every eighteen packs). In the end, the truth was closer to foil rares than foil mythics, but there’s some math we need to do.

Just looking at the surface values, foil timeshifted cards drop one-and-a-half times less frequently than foil rare cards (one in 27 packs versus one in eighteen packs). We must then adjust this for the total number of cards on each sheet. For example, Time Spiral Remastered contains 53 rares and 121 timeshifted cards. Running some math:

  • 53 foil rares at one every eighteen packs = 954 packs opened to get one of every foil rare card in this set (26.5 boxes)
  • 121 foil timeshifted cards at one every 27 packs = 3267 packs opened to get one of every foil timeshifted card in this set (90.75 boxes)

Comparatively:

  • 15 foil mythic rare cards at one every 144 packs = 2,160 packs opened to get one of every foil mythic card in this set (60 boxes)

Extrapolating these numbers, we can draw the following conclusions:

  1. Any one given foil timeshifted card is one-and-a-half times as rare as any one given foil mythic rare card.
  2. Any one given foil timeshifted card is just shy of three-and-a-half times as rare as any one given foil rare card.
  3. For every 100 boxes of product opened, there are 25 foil mythic rares, 133 foil timeshifted cards, and 200 foil rares.  This is 1.67 of each foil mythic rare, 1.1 of each foil timeshifted card, and 3.77 of each foil rare.

Stated plainly, there are going to be more total foil timeshifted cards out there than foil mythic rares, but fewer of any one individual card by a significant amount!  In fact, let’s compare these to Masterpiece Series cards.

Kaladesh Masterpiece Series cards appeared once every 144 boosters. This is approximately the same as regular foil mythic rares. There were 30 Kaladesh Masterpieces, meaning one of each represents 4,320 booster packs opened (or 120 boxes). There were 24 Aether Revolt Masterpiece Series cards, so one of each represents 3,456 booster packs opened (or 96 boxes).

If we’re breaking down the odds or rarity of these types of cards, the chart would look as follows:

  • Specific foil rare: one in 26.5 boxes
  • Specific foil mythic rare: one in 60 boxes
  • Specific foil timeshifted card: one in 90.75 boxes
  • Specific foil Aether Revolt Masterpiece: one in 96 boxes
  • Specific foil Kaladesh Masterpiece: one in 120 boxes

When I say that Time Spiral Remastered timeshifted foils are going to be extraordinarily expensive and rare compared to the foils we’re used to getting out of booster packs, I’m not joking. Without hyperbole, any individual foil timeshifted card is about equal to the rarity of an Aether Revolt masterpiece card.

So instead of thinking of timeshifted foils as timeshifted rarity, let’s think of it in terms of the following:

  • Timeshifted foils are Masterpiece-level rarity (for any individual card).
  • Timeshifted foils appear in a product that is $6.99 MSRP per pack, versus $3.99 for Aether Revolt.
  • The print run of Time Spiral Remastered is a fraction of the print run of Aether Revolt.

To expand on the second point: The average presale price of an Aether Revolt box was $100. The average presale price of a Time Spiral Remastered box is going to be $200.

  • Aether Revolt: $100 a box @ 96 boxes = $9,600 in product opened to get a complete set of Masterpieces.
  • Time Spiral Remastered: $200 a box @ 90.75 boxes = $18,150 in product opened to get a complete set of foil timeshifted cards.

There are 24 Aether Revolt Masterpiece series cards. The average value of one of these cards is $85.41. This is not going to be the average value of a Time Spiral Remastered timeshifted foil! For one, the Aether Revolt Masterpiece cards are from a hand-selected batch of some of the most desirable artifacts ever printed in Magic (Reserved List notwithstanding). This is not the case with timeshifted cards. While there are a number of ultra-desirable cards on the Time Spiral Remastered timeshifted sheet, there are also plenty of cards that would be considered at- or near-bulk level (see: Blighted Woodland, Secret Plans, Hedron Archive, etc.).

We can draw an absolute comparison though to one card: Chalice of the Void.  Chalice of the Void is the one card that appears as both an Aether Revolt Masterpiece and as a Time Spiral Remastered timeshifted foil.

The Masterpiece version clocks in at $150. The timeshifted foil version of Chalice of the Void is going to be rarer (fewer printed overall), harder to get to begin with (fewer packs to open), and more desirable (the majority of players who want a blinged-out version of this card will prefer the old frame version to the Masterpiece frame version).

Take that as you will.

The Actual Cards

In last week’s article, I felt like I sounded like a broken record, as cards from the set were roughly broken into three camps. Rather than discuss each card one-by-one, I’d rather break them into camps and discuss why cards are falling into certain places. The timeshifted cards are one of the only times you’re going to hear me say this year that the demand from a format other than Commander is going to be the primary driver of prices (in this case, Legacy and/or Vintage).

Regular Cards

  1. Reprints that will sell for more than the original versions (new art / upshifted rarity)
  2. Reprints that will sell for about the same as the original versions (new art / upshifted rarity / high demand / new frame)
  3. Reprints that will sell for less than the regular versions (the supply will exceed initial demand)

Timeshifted Cards

  1. Cards that will sell for a lot more than the original versions (a combination of all three of effectively upshifted rarity, few previous variants, high playability in Legacy and/or Vintage)
  2. Cards that will sell for some amount more than the original versions (effectively upshifted rarity, plus one of the two following: few previous variants or a high playability in Legacy and/or Vintage)
  3. Cards that will sell for about the same as the original versions (effectively upshifted rarity, but there are multiple other versions available and not a Legacy and/or Vintage staple)

Virtually every high-dollar card in Time Spiral / Planar Chaos / Future Sight was reprinted in Time Spiral Remastered. Here are the major cards that were not reprinted in the set:

Academy Ruins

Recently reprinted in Double Masters, including as a borderless version. Price should not be affected.

Bitter Ordeal

$15 prior to lack of reprint. Will see price/demand rise since there’s not a clear place where Bitter Ordeal will be reprinted in the future.

Bridge from Below

Recently reprinted in Ultimate Masters. Already has value dropped by ban in Modern. Might see a slight bump in price, but demand isn’t there.

Graven Cairns

Reprinted recently in Double Masters. Price should not be affected.

Grove of the Burnwillows

Recently reprinted as a Zendikar Rising Expedition. Price should not be affected.

Horizon Canopy

Also recently reprinted as a Zendikar Rising Expedition. Price should not be affected.

Imp’s Mischief

$15 prior to lack of reprint. Already up to $20 and will also continue to rise in price due to a lack of clear product/place where it will be reprinted.

Intervention Pact

$3 prior to lack of reprint, currently at $4. While Imp’s Mischief and Bitter Ordeal are much more popular as Commander cards, Intervention Pact sees some fringe play in competitive Magic. I would expect this to rise slightly, but not as much as the previously mentioned pair of black cards.

Korlash, Heir to Blackblade

Currently being printed on “The List.” Should not see a bump in price, but might go up very slightly (from $5 to $6) for the original version.

Paradox Haze

Was on the foil sheet for the retail edition of Mystery Booster. This dropped its price significantly, but it’s already starting to recover. Paradox Haze had an all-time high of $4 and I could see it recovering to that price quickly.

River of Tears

Has not been reprinted since Iconic Masters, but also not a popular land in this cycle. Could see it going up a dollar or so, due to lack of reprint.

Sword of the Meek

Recently reprinted in Double Masters. This will keep it from going up in price due to lack of reprint in this set.

Temporal Extortion

$10 prior to lack of reprint, currently at $12. Popular Time Walk / punisher variant for casual players. I see this one rising a bunch.

Trickbind

$5 prior to lack of reprint, currently at $6. Another card that sees a bunch of play (both as a fifth Stifle and in Commander). Can see this hitting $8-$10 because split second isn’t a mechanic that’s likely to be reprinted in an upcoming supplemental product.

Regular Cards

Group 1: Reprints that will sell for more than the original versions (new art / upshifted rarity).

Ancestral Vision

The older versions have tanked in value due to reprints. This is likely the rarest (by both actual rarity and by print run) version of Ancestral Vision out there.

Group 2: Reprints that will sell for about the same as the original versions (new art / upshifted rarity / high demand / new frame).

Akroma, Angel of Fury

Upshifted.

Akroma’s Memorial

May be slightly cheaper than other versions now, but this card has shown incredible price resiliency over the years.

Angel’s Grace

Currently trending lower than the original version, but the new artwork should cause it to rise in value as supply dries up (versus dragging the old version down in value).

Aven Mindcensor

The rare (Amonkhet) and uncommon (Future Sight) versions are both a solid $3. We’ve started this version at $2 but I expect it to rise to meet the price of the older versions, as the uncommons in this set are harder to get than the average uncommon (low print run, larger number of unique uncommons in the set than usual).

Coalition Relic

Reprinted enough to have a firm price history.

Damnation

Again, another card that has shown incredible price resiliency. Even after a Secret Lair printing recently, we haven’t seen the supply of Damnation meet demand. Having it printed at mythic rare in this set won’t impact supply enough to affect price long-term.

Delay

New artwork. Currently half the price of the Future Sight version, but I feel most of the uncommons in this set will rise to meet the old versions and not vice versa.

Dryad Arbor

Strangely enough, one of the few cards that I think is more desirable than the Future Sight version (so it fits in with most other Forests), also rarity upshifted. This the card I’d point to right now to say, “This is undervalued, and I’d be shocked if it wasn’t worth nearly twice as much within two to three months.”

Extirpate

Solid card, new supply should meet demand but not exceed it.

Flagstones of Trokair

When the Ultimate Masters edition Flagstones came out, the price on both versions dropped from $25 to $15, and then bottomed out at $5 in mid-2019. Since then, the price has slowly recovered back up to the $18 mark. The scant supply from Time Spiral Remastered will probably keep this version from hitting the full $18 immediately, but I don’t think that the older versions will see any drop this time around.

Gemstone Caverns

A huge-demand card that was upshifted to mythic. The supply on these is going to dry up almost immediately and then it’ll just go up in price to meet the original version.

Krosan Grip

Has been reprinted so many times that this (small) supply from Time Spiral Remastered should not affect the price tag ($2) at all.

Living End

Upshifted.

Might of Old Krosa

The reprint of this card in Modern Masters 2017 dropped the price overall, but then it recovered. I think history will repeat itself and all versions will be up to $2 within a few months of release (currently at $1).

Pact of Negation

Older versions have stuck at $35-$40. I expect this version to rise to that level, rather than bringing the older versions down to $25.

Rift Bolt

A common and one that’s been reprinted heavily compared to other cards on this list (a Duel Deck, Iconic Masters, Modern Masters, and as an FNM promo). The previous versions have all stabilized at $1. This one will be in shorter supply than most (if not all) previous printings, so it should just stay at the $1 price as well.

Slaughter Pact

Has a price history of $4-ish, should stay at that price history.

Street Wraith

The plus is that it has new artwork. The minus is that it’s been reprinted so many times (Mystery Booster and two Masters sets) that the price hasn’t recovered. However, that new artwork will save it from going down further in price.

Sudden Spoiling

Has a price history.

Summoner’s Pact

Should settle in the $10 range, like the two Masters printings.

Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir

Upshifted.

Tolaria West

Upshifted.

Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

The Ultimate Masters and Magic 2015 print runs are comparable to (or higher than) Time Spiral Remastered. I feel confident that Urborg is a solid $25 after reprinting, and the current $20 price tag will go up within a month after supply dries up.

Vesuva

Upshifted.

Wheel of Fate

Upshifted.

Group 3: Reprints that will sell for less than the regular versions (the supply will exceed initial demand).

Boom // Bust

New supply will likely exceed short-term demand.

Chromatic Star

As a common, there will be a decent number of these printed. The foil version will probably end up being the most expensive foil version of this card (new artwork).

Cloud Key

Huge value based on having never been reprinted. A reprint at rare will drive the value downwards.

Crovax, Ascendant Hero

As close to a bulk mythic as you’re going to see in this set.

Slivers

Whenever Slivers get reprinted (as opposed to brand-new ones getting printed), the reprinted ones drop significantly in value while the non-reprinted ones go up. This is because people have a cheaper alternative supply to their supply, but still need to round out the deck with the other Slivers that exist.

Gauntlet of Power

Despite being upshifted to mythic, this is a card that I feel the new supply will slightly tip the value downwards.

Glittering Wish

Supply is going to exceed demand.

Heartwood Storyteller

Great multiplayer card but one that had a price buoyed by only having been printed once. Will go down in value.

Hypergenesis

Banned in the formats that matter. Bulk.

Kaervek the Merciless

Had a spike due to a buyout a few months back. That bubble is about to burst, hard.

Keen Sense

Price was inflated to $5 due to lack of a reprint. I don’t think there’s enough genuine demand on this card to keep the price up (versus something like Delay or Aven Mindcensor), so I think it’ll drop to the $2-$3 range ($2 for this version, $3 for the original).

Kher Keep

New supply exceeds demand.

Life and Limb

New supply exceeds demand (again!)

Logic Knot

New artwork. We’ve dropped the price on the other versions, but I believe they all will end up equalizing at the lower price, versus all the prices recovering to the previous $1-$2 high.

Mana Tithe

Fringe card that had $1 value due to scarcity. Being reprinted as a common will bring the overall price down to the $0.50 range for the foreseeable future.

Mirri the Cursed

New artwork won’t save this card from going down in value. Should settle in the $1.50-$2 range.

Muraganda Petroglyphs

Repeat after me: new supply of a never-before-reprinted card will exceed demand.

Pongify

I think that there are enough variants on this card in blue now that the original doesn’t hold as much value as it once did. It was also recently in Double Masters, which had a larger supply than this set, and the price hasn’t recovered from there.

Rebuff the Wicked

Much like Keen Sense, this card had a demand that exceeded pre-Time Spiral Remastered supply, but there will be enough added from this release to  meet that demand and exceed it. I expect both the old and new versions to stabilize in the $2 range (Planar Chaos version currently at $4).

Restore Balance

Despite being upshifted, essentially a fringe card and a bulk mythic.

Saffi Eriksdotter

Yet another card that held value due to never having been reprinted before. This first reprint should drop the price down.

Simian Spirit Guide

Reprinted with new artwork and a highly played card, so why is it in Group 3? Because it just got banned in Modern, so the market is already in sell-off and price-down mode on SSG.

Sliver Legion

Gonna separate this out from the other Slivers. Was previously selling at $100, now the Future Sight version is down to $75 (and the new version is $55). I expect this to drop a little more, but to see the other Sliver lords (Overlord, Queen, Hivemaster) to go up in price.  If this gets to $40, buy it. Based on print runs and Sliver price history, that’s where the floor is going to be, barring another reprint.

Stuffy Doll

Will halve in value, but will slowly recover (see Magic 2013 reprint). Should settle in the $5-$6 range by the summer.

Swarmyard

If this hadn’t recently been printed in a Secret Lair, I would have been bullish at it having a good price floor. Unfortunately, that other printing is only a few months old. I think this print will drag down the value of the original Time Spiral version.

Tarmogoyf

Oh how the mighty have fallen. What was once the poster child for “high-dollar rares” is now a card that’s still powerful but has gone way out of favor. Each time Tarmogoyf gets reprinted, the price floor on all the versions takes a $5-$10 hit. We’re presently at $35-$50 depending on version. This is an artwork that people don’t particularly like so I’m very reluctant to say it will go up in price from where it is now (versus other versions starting to creep to $35 from $40-$50).

Utopia Mycon

Should tank in price. Would not be surprised to see this drop to the $0.50-$0.75 range. Saprolings aren’t super-popular right now and this is a key example of a card that had a premium that hinged on having never been reprinted before.

Venser, Shaper Savant

Should equalize at $10 for multiple versions, versus the current $8/$12 split.

Walk the Aeons

There are a lot of Time Walk variants these days. This one had a high price tag due to never having been reprinted. Now that it’s reprinted, I think it’ll actually drop to the $2/$3 range of Time Walks that don’t have much interest.

Timeshifted Cards

Group 1: Cards that will sell for a lot more than the original versions (a combination of all three of effectively upshifted rarity, few previous variants, high playability in Legacy and/or Vintage).

Abrupt Decay Beast Within Bojuka Bog Chalice of the Void Containment Priest Elvish Mystic Eternal Witness Flickerwisp Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker Lava Spike Leyline of the Void Monastery Swiftspear Mystic Sanctuary Nature's Claim Palace Jailer Panharmonicon Path to Exile Ponder Primeval Titan Solemn Simulacrum Thoughtseize True-Name Nemesis Wastes Yawgmoth, Thran Physician Young Pyromancer

Group 2: Cards that will sell for some amount more than the original versions (effectively upshifted rarity, plus one of the two following: few previous variants or a high playability in Legacy and/or Vintage).

Ancient Den Ancient Stirrings Anger of the Gods Arcades, the Strategist Baral, Chief of Compliance Beast Whisperer Bloodbraid Elf Cloudshredder Sliver Courser of Kruphix Cranial Plating Crystal Shard Dismember Dovin's Veto Dreadhorde Arcanist Etali, Primal Storm Ethereal Armor Everflowing Chalice Farseek Feather, the Redeemed Feldon of the Third Path Field of Ruin Goblin Engineer Gurmag Angler Hollow One Knight of the Reliquary Laboratory Maniac Manifold Key Master of the Pearl Trident Mirror Entity Mulldrifter Mystic Confluence Ninja of the Deep Hours Paradoxical Outcome Past in Flames Qasali Pridemage Remand Repeal Silence Sram, Senior Edificer Stinkweed Imp Sylvan Scrying Tasigur, the Golden Fang Thraben Inspector Thragtusk Tidehollow Sculler Treasure Cruise Trinket Mage Trygon Predator Vampire Hexmage Vandalblast Zulaport Cutthroat

Group 3: Cards that will sell for about the same as the original versions (effectively upshifted rarity, but there are multiple other versions available and not a Legacy and/or Vintage staple).

Ajani's Pridemate Alesha, Who Smiles at Death Arch of Orazca Banishing Light Become Immense Bedlam Reveler Blighted Woodland Consuming Aberration Contagion Clasp Disdainful Stroke Epic Experiment Evolutionary Leap Exquisite Firecraft Fblthp, the Lost Gray Merchant of Asphodel Grenzo, Dungeon Warden Harvester of Souls Hedron Archive Intangible Virtue Lavinia, Azorius Renegade Leveler Liliana's Triumph Lingering Souls Molten Rain Mortify Prized Amalgam Rakdos Charm Ramunap Ruins Read the Bones Reclamation Sage Relentless Rats Restoration Angel Sanguine Bond Secret Plans Shriekmaw Sigil of the Empty Throne Slimefoot, the Stowaway Sorcerous Spyglass Stonehorn Dignitary Talrand, Sky Summoner Temur Ascendancy Temur Battle Rage Time of Need Vanquisher's Banner Zealous Conscripts

Time Spiral Remastered is extremely short-printed compared to demand. The timeshifted cards (especially the foil versions!) are the highlight of the set. They are effectively each at the same appearance rate as many Masterpiece Series cards. Even while the prices of many commons/uncommons/rares/mythics will go down in the short term (release through about a month after release), I think people will find that this is a short-lived price drop.