Ding Dong! Alrund’s Epiphany Is (Not) Dead

Here we are, Week 2 of Innistrad: Crimson Vow Standard. I guess technically Innistrad: Crimson Vow technically isn’t even released yet physically, but in the digital space we’ve already learned so much about what the set can offer the format. Now I don’t want to call it too early, but my initial opinion is that Magic’s newest set hasn’t changed all that much. Pessimistic, yet realistic, I’d say. Today I’m going to go over my findings, what baskets I suggest you put your eggs into, and dismantle some opinions I’ve been seeing in social posts and articles. 

Let’s kick things off with the one that’s been boiling my blood for the past 48 hours. 

Hullbreaker Horror Is Not Replacing Alrund’s Epiphany

I repeat, Hullbreaker Horror is not replacing Alrund’s Epiphany in Standard. I don’t even know how this narrative started. Like, why do people think this is going to happen? Who knows, maybe it’s just people within my echo chamber playing off each other. Maybe it’s because I made a tongue-in-cheek response to one of Cedric’s Tweets. Regardless, for those of you who are also affected by the same noise, I’m here to tell you how patently wrong it is. Hullbreaker Horror is good, probably even great, but it’s not ending Alrund’s Epiphany’s life. 

Don’t Settle For Just Hulls, Break All Of Standard With Hullbreaker Horror

Now I probably shouldn’t go this hard on the topic as I don’t know how widespread this opinion is right now. I just know that our very own Bryan Gottlieb and Todd Anderson both wrote about Hullbreaker Horror pushing Alrund’s Epiphany out of the metagame, for one reason or another, and I just couldn’t disagree more. I did debate ignoring it, but where’s the fun in that? 

So let’s break this down. For starters, Standard has become a format completely warped around Alrund’s Epiphany. Obviously Mono-White Aggro❄ is cracked, but linear aggro decks like this would get squashed by hate if those decks didn’t just fold to Izzet Epiphany. That’s because every time a deck tries to improve their aggro matchups, they make their Izzet Epiphany matchup twice as bad. You need removal to beat creatures, and removal sucks against the creatureless deck. It’s that simple!

So, hypothetically, if Hullbreaker Horror pushed Alrund’s Epiphany out of the metagame, then these other decks would finally have the opportunity to utilize their removal spells against the other control deck. Not only that, they could also devise new plans to out grind the now combo-less control deck. The metagame could start to evolve again. So yeah, my opinion is that Hullbreaker Horror would end up being a worse top-end against a shifting metagame than Galvanic Iteration and Alrund’s Epiphany are in this stagnant one. 

Why Orzhov Midrange❄ Is Making Waves In Innistrad: Crimson Vow Standard

Now let me dig myself even deeper as I double down and say Alrund’s Epiphany is also better in the head-to-head. That’s because most Izzet “mirrors” come down to mana production, and the deck with Galvanic Iteration and Unexpected Windfall is better at making mana than the deck without four copies of those cards. Now obviously the Epiphany player can’t just ignore the Hullbreaker Horror on the battlefield, but a simple Fading Hope into dumping a ton of mana into extra turns is usually going to seal the deal. 

There’s more to it as well, as one of the biggest problems in Izzet “mirrors” is running the risk of an opponent taking extra turns. Sometimes you have to play slightly conservatively to make sure they don’t just snowball some turns going way over the top of whatever you just did. This isn’t possible without access to the turn-taking spell. So if you know your opponent doesn’t have access to spending 30+ mana before you get to cast another spell, you maybe can get a bit more aggressive at times. 

My last point is merely a deckbuilding philosophy one. There’s just no reason to make a deck like Izzet Epiphany a linear one by turning it into a generic control deck. Now, I have no clue what the best build of Izzet Epiphany is, but I could only assume it would include many unique ways to win the game. It could maindeck the turn-taking combo, and sideboard threats like Hullbreaker Horror. That’s what Standard has always been: a format where you pivot strategies ever so slightly. There’s just no reason to give up on the high ceiling that is Alrund’s Epiphany. These cards should work in harmony with one another, and not be in competition. 

Now we’ll circle back to how exactly we’ll try to accomplish that in a bit, but first we need to explore the rest of the metagame. 

Exploring the Rest of the Metagame

So I’m just going to come out and say this, there’s no reason to play anything other than these three decks:

• Mono-White Aggro❄
• Mono-Green Aggro❄
• Izzet Epiphany

I highly suggest not playing: 

Izzet Dragons

Its time in the sun is long gone. The deck didn’t get any real upgrades from Innistrad: Crimson Vow, while every other major player did. Valorous Stance is also a significant blow to this deck’s playability as it’s just so damn good against the deck’s threats. Simply put, I just don’t think this deck has any good matchups left. 

Dimir Control

This deck has been trying to be the anti-meta deck for some time now, and it just isn’t working out. It’s fine, don’t get me wrong, but it’s just not as good of a choice as the other best decks. Now obviously these words I’m writing will have zero impact on the World as non-Dimir players already know this, and Dimir players are so disillusioned that they’re probably calling me an idiot right now and exiting the article. Bye! 

Temur Midrange

If Hullbreaker Horror did anything, it invalidated the blue splash designed to counter Izzet Epiphany’s big spells. If you’re committed to playing this archetype, I highly suggest switching over to the black version that seems better across the board. It’s especially much better against Mono-Green Aggro❄ thanks to the one playable Vampire that’s not from Innistrad: Crimson Vow, ironically enough.

I’m actually a big fan of Jund Midrange, but I don’t know why. Oh wait, I do, it’s because it’s a Jund deck. Still, I don’t think I could convince myself to play it over Mono-White Aggro❄ or Izzet Epiphany. I wish I could, but I simply have to go where the data points me. 

Look, I love it when my job here is to hype up new and exciting archetypes. It’s just that I can only do that in good conscience when I myself would play them in a serious tournament. And who knows, maybe I just need to grind a bit more to discover some diamonds in the rough, but at the same time I don’t think that’s the problem here. I’m a firm believer that combo-control decks completely warp what’s playable in a format making it almost impossible to play anything besides them, or control/aggro decks that can beat them. 

People will continue to play decks like Dimir Control, Jund Treasures, or whatever else that floats their boat. Odds are they’ll be wrong, but sometimes a deck like Orzhov Midrange❄ will win a tournament facing zero Izzet Epiphany decks along the way. They’ll make a narrative around the story, but the results won’t be recreated the following week. I hate it as much as the next person, but like I said earlier, my job is to get you wins and that’s exactly why I’m trying to point you in the right direction.

Best Deck Choice: Mono-White Aggro❄

Bolov0 is as old-school as I am, and I love that he still hasn’t lost the love for the grind. Last weekend he finished second in one of the Magic Online Challenges with what I believe to be the best-looking Mono-White Aggro❄ decklist I’ve seen thus far. Why? Well it’s just playing the good cards! 

These cards suck, so just don’t play them. I really wanted them to be good enough when I initially saw the Mono-White Aggro❄ decks from this past World Championship. They scale together, and Sungold Sentinel can get some final points through on clogged battlefields. It’s just that their ceiling isn’t that much higher than other options, while their floor is significantly worse. I’d stay away. 

So where I’m at with Valorous Stance is complicated. On one hand, I really like this card maindeck against most decks. The only problem is it’s very weak in the mirrors, which is the most-represented deck in the metagame right now. Still though, it’s worth a few slots, which is why I really liked Bolov0’s split of removal. 

My Current Izzet Epiphany List

I’ve often said Izzet Epiphany is a work in progress, and that’s true to this day. I have zero faith this list is good, but it is where I’m currently at, so let’s talk about it. 

Maindeck Hullbreaker Horror

I’m still unsure if Hullbreaker Horror is a worthy maindeck card, but I’m currently trying them it Behold the Multiverse for a couple of reasons. First off, I’m just not a fan of playing four copies of Alrund’s Epiphany, as it seems like I’m always sideboarding out one or more copies of the card. The issue is, I just don’t think you want to only play three copies if you don’t have other ways to close the game in the maindeck. I got around this last season by playing the Smoldering Egg / Lier version, but I no longer have faith in that build thanks to Valorous Stance. I also think Hullbreaker Horror is at its best against Mono-Green Aggro❄, which is also the matchup I feel worst about in Game 1. 

Sideboard Removal Suite

There are many options for sideboard removal, but I feel the best equity is for them to be best against Mono-Green Aggro❄ and serviceable elsewhere. Burning Hands isn’t great against Mono-White Aggro❄ or Rakdos Vampires, but it still kills some of the creatures. The alternative is to play slower removal that deals more damage, but those cards always end up lining up poorly against Mono-Green Aggro❄, causing them to be even worse there than Burning Hands is against the other creature decks. Honestly, it’s just a constant struggle where I’ll never know if I find the correct mixture. 

Besides that, it’s a fairly normal Izzet Epiphany deck. The most interesting thing I’ve done is add the seventh double-faced spell/land card to go up to 30 mana sources. I think that’s correct. 

Brief Sideboard Guide for the Curious

VS Mono-White Aggro❄

Out:

In:

VS Mono-Green Aggro❄

Out:

In: 

VS Izzet Epiphany

Out:

In:

What About Mono-Green Aggro❄?

I believe Mono-Green Aggro❄ to be a great deck. Hell, I had it as the best deck choice last weekend, but I can follow that tune no longer.

Updating Innistrad: Midnight Hunt Standard’s Best Decks With Innistrad: Crimson Vow

Mono-Green Aggro❄ is for sure a worse choice than Mono-White Aggro❄. The white deck just got too many great toys, and is favored in the head-to-head. That right there is enough to put it over the top if these two decks continue to be the most-played strategies. 

I think the choice between Mono-Green Aggro❄ and Izzet Epiphany is close enough that if you like green, play green. I personally like Izzet, so I’ll play Izzet. Maybe by this weekend I’ll be able to have a definitive answer, but right now I don’t. I’m also leaning towards the other two decks, so I don’t even feel comfortable suggesting any particular list of Mono-Green Aggro❄. Most of my time has been spent working on Mono-White Aggro❄ and Izzet Epiphany, and trying to fall in love with Jund Midrange, which hasn’t happened yet. 

Anyway, that’s all I have for this week. Hopefully I figure out something amazing before next week rolls around. If I don’t, we are for sure not going to talk about these decks again. I have been playing some Historic leading into the Innistrad Set Championship, so I think we’ll take a pit stop there and discuss what’s going on in the other MTG Arena Constructed format. Good luck this weekend, and I hope you take all the turns!