I spent last weekend at a Vintage tournament. This week, I read that Masters Edition One will stop being sold online in January, Weatherlight will be released online in December, and that Masters Edition II is coming. All of this raises the question: are these old sets worth anything at all? The simple rule is that the more cards a format has, the fewer cards that are actually playable.
I’m serious about that rule. A lot of cards are playable in block. Most of those fade when translated into Standard. The number of playable cards in any given Standard is further reduced when you move on to Extended, and so forth.
With more cards in a format, the number of cards that compete for any given slot is greater, but decks don’t increase in size. That means that a card has to be among the best of the best to find a spot.
Take creatures, for example. In Time Spiral block, cards like Mystic Enforcer, various Slivers and Whitemane Lion were playable. (Check out the Top 16 in GP: Montreal for examples.) In Standard, cards like that can’t cut it. By the time you get to Vintage, creatures have to be Tarmogoyf or better to see play. In rare cases, cards like Kird Ape may see play, but Vintage’s main creatures are Tarmogoyf, Quirion Dryad, and Phyrexian Dreadnought, with a special mention for creatures like Goblin Welder and Protean Hulk.
The larger the format, the smaller the pool of cards that can actually see play.
Really.
Let’s compare the last Block season with Vintage. I copied the entire Top 16 decks from GP: Montreal, including sideboards, and counted cards. Excluding basic lands, the Top 16 decks played at least one copy of each of 125 cards. Time Spiral block has 747 cards (basic lands excluded), which means that slightly under one in five legal cards saw play.
By comparison, in the StarCityGames.com Vintage event, the decklists from Saturday and Sunday included 144 unique cards (plus basic lands.) The Vintage format has slightly more than 9,100 unique cards (thanks, Yawgatog, for the number), which means that roughly one in 66 cards sees play in Vintage.
One if five, one in sixty-three.
The simple fact is that, in a wider card pool, only the best cards have any chance of ever seeing play.
Wizards is releasing some old sets on MTGO. Masters Edition (MED) was a strange compilation of sets before Mirage. Mirage and Visions have been released online, and Weatherlight is starting its beta testing. Tempest block will comes out, eventually.
Online, sets like Mirage and MED are only playable in Classic, the online equivalent of Vintage. Classic is not quite Vintage, since it lacks the P9 and all the Urza’s Saga brokenness. Actually, that’s a lot like saying that my tractor is like a Ferrari, but just lacking the supercharger and some streamlining. Eventually, however, we expect a MED II and MED III — and those should include the Moxen, the duals, and Ancestral Recall.
I keep wondering is it is reasonable to try to collect these sets.
I played in the Mirage releases. I played in the Visions releases. I have 48 Mirage rares, and 24 Visions rares. I own none of the chase rares, except the three I bought separately. Despite vowing not to, I played in the MED release events, and wound up with 54 rares —including one Force of Will. That is actually not surprising: Mirage has 110 rares, and only five of them are worth more than the price of the pack they come in. For Visions, there are four cards in the set worth more than the price of the pack they come in.
Each of these sets has one big money card online. Mirage has Lion’s Eye Diamond, with Phyrexian Dreadnought a weak second. Visions has Vampiric Tutor, with Tithe and Undiscovered Paradise trailing along. MED has Force of Will — with nothing else in the set selling for more than cost of the pack. (I may do a more elaborate breakdown if you want more numbers.)
Probably better to buy the singles. If you were just playing Vintage, not Standard, the same might be true of the old sets, if packs were somehow still available at original retail rates. Aside from Alpha / Beta / Unlimited, perhaps. I went through both Top 8 decklists from the StarCity Vintage events and sorted the cards played into sets.
Alpha / Beta / Unlimited
Black Lotus
Sol Ring
The Moxen
Ancestral Recall
Time Walk
Demonic Tutor
Regrowth
Fastbond
The dual lands
Mana Vault
Illusionary Mask
Wheel of Fortune
Time Twister
Swords to Plowshares
Balance
Dark Ritual
Red Elemental Blast
Juggernaut
Lightning Bolt
The original sets included the power nine, the dual lands, and broken stuff like Fastbond. Note that restricted cards like Fastbond, that were reprinted in Revised, are nowhere near as expensive as those playables that appear only in Alpha / Beta and Revised. Cards like Swords to Plowshares and Balance, which also appeared in later base sets and block (e.g. Ice Ages) are cheaper still.
Portal & Promos
Grim Tutor
Imperial Seal
Mana Crypt
I remember all the players and forum dwellers arguing to make Portal legal for play. They thought that cards like the Green Savannah Lions — Jungle Lion — would be playable. Right. The only playable cards in Portal are the slightly-downgraded tutors. Aggro players in 5color do, occasionally, run Jungle Lions, and the amazingly expensive Sea Drake, but the only other use of Portal cards has been to get black bordered copies of Volcanic Hammer, or alternative art on Man-O-Wars for Aluren decks in Extended seasons past.
Antiquities / Arabian Nights
Library of Alexandria
Bazaar of Baghdad
Mishra’s Workshop
Mishra’s Factory
Triskelion
Strip Mine
Hurkyl’s Recall
Energy Flux
Kird Ape
Antiquities and Arabian Nights provide a reasonable number of cards, considering that neither of these sets was very large. A more interesting note is that the cards being provided are mainly lands. Only three of the cards are colored.
Legends / The Dark
Mana Drain
Tormod’s Crypt
Legends, on the other hand, was a huge set. It supplies exactly one card to the Vintage metagame. One. The Dark provides Tormod’s Crypt — but the version I actually saw in play in Chicago were often timeshifted versions: foil timeshifted versions, that is.
Ice Ages
Force of Will
Brainstorm
Jester’s Cap
Necropotence
Pyroclasm
Ice Ages provided one of the ubiquitous Blue cards in the format: Brainstorm. Brainstorm is so very good, when played with fetchlands. Even so, Ponder is beginning to challenge it in Vintage. Alliances provides the other ubiquitous Blue card: Force of Will. Other than those two cards, however, Ice Ages block provided a Necro for one deck, and some sideboard cards.
Mirage
Vampiric Tutor
Mystical Tutor
Phyrexian Dreadnought
Lion’s Eye Diamond
Seeds of Innocence
Mirage block does a bit better. Phyrexian Dreadnought is played with Illusionary Mask, and has seen play in decks that use AEther Vial and/or Stifle to get around the sacrifice trigger. (Vial: play ‘nought, trigger on stack, Vial out another, sac one to pay for the other.) Lion’s Eye Diamond is a combo part and mana source, in certain circumstances. The tutors are, of course, tutors (although note that Worldly and Enlightened tutors are no-shows.
Seeds of Innocence is just tech. I know — I’ve played them for years in casual decks.
Tempest
Lotus Petal
Wasteland
Sphere of Resistance
City of Traitors
Ancient Tomb
Mogg Fanatic
Tempest block brings almost nothing but mana, and mana denial, to the party. Mogg Fanatic does appear, however, in part because of its great interactions with (against) Ichorid decks. Most importantly, note that, of the 600+ cards in the block, only six cards are playable, and half of those are lands.
Urza’s Saga
Tinker
Goblin Lackey
Duress
Goblin Welder
Yawgmoth’s Will
Tolarian Academy
Metalworker
Karn, Silver Golem
Memory Jar
Smokestack
Viashino Heretic
Urza’s Saga really was full of broken cards. Well, “full” was an overstatement, but it does have a lot of really overpowered cards. Note, however, that many of them no longer see play at all. Windfall, Time Spiral, Voltaic Key, Grim Monolith — all are, or were restricted, and all are notably absent from these sixteen decks.
Masques
Misdirection
Gush
Tangle Wire
Squee, Goblin Nabob
Masques, Nemesis, and Prophecy bring four cards to the party. Note that only one is mana denial. The two Blue cards both have alternative casting costs, and Squee is mainly used to power up Bazaar of Baghdad. Remember what I said about cards only seeing play when they are efficient enough? Gush, with Fastbond in play, provides two cards and two mana for, at most, two life. As for Misdirection — you can misdirect Ancestral Recall and Thoughtseize.
Odyssey
Psychatog
Cabal Ritual
Zombie Infestation
Smother
Onslaught
Fetchlands
Pyrostatic Pillar
Stifle
Tendrils of Agony
Mind’s Desire
I figure that most of these cards can speak for themselves. The fetchlands, however, need some emphasis. They get a single slot, but they were some of the most commonly played cards in the format. Everyone runs fetchlands.
Invasion
Quirion Dryad
Fact or Fiction
Fire / Ice
Mirrodin
Skullclamp
Aether Vial
Darksteel Colossus
Trinket Mage
Engineered Explosives
Trinisphere
Sword of Fire & Ice
Duplicant
Crucible of Worlds
Chalice of the Void
Sundering Titan
Platinum Angel
Razormane Masticore
Thirst for Knowledge
Echoing Truth
Not that Urza’s Saga and Mirrodin both had a ton of artifacts. More artifacts equals more broken artifacts, and those artifacts are seeing play in Vintage. The artifact sets really do provide more than their share of playable Vintage cards.
On a positive note — no Mindslavers in the Top 8s! I hate the card, so I’m glad to see it disappearing.
Kamigawa
Gifts Ungiven
Sensei’s Divining Top
Threads of Disloyalty
Pithing Needle
Meloku the Clouded Mirror
I was surprised to see how strong Kamigawa block was. True, exactly one copy of Meloku showed up, but the number of cards played in Kamigawa block did almost triple Legends block, which is impressive.
Ravnica
Dark Confidant
Leyline of the Void
Trygon Predator
Bottled Cloister
Life from the Loam
Dimir Cutpurse
Darkblast
Repeal
I knew the first two Ravnica cards would be everywhere — they were some of the first we reviewed in prepping to judge the format. I did not expect some of the others. I was also quite interested in noting that none of the Ravnica duals found their way into decks. The two life is a killer, apparently, if you can run the real duals instead.
Time Spiral Block
Magus of the Moon
Tarmogoyf
Pact of Negation
Trickbind
Empty the Warrens
Slaughter Pact
Yixlid Jailer
Most of these cards are obvious. The free cards are, after all, free. Tarmogoyf is the best creature ever printed. (Previous candidates: Kird Ape and Juggernaut — both once banned – were played. Psychatog — a single Dr. Teeth made an appearance. Morphling, Wild Mongrel, etc. — all no shows.) Trickbind is Stifle 5-8, and Yixlid Jailer is a hoser for certain decks, but I suspect he spent nearly they entire time in the sideboard.
Lorwyn
Thoughtseize
Thorn of Amethyst
Gaddock Teeg
Ponder
Gaddock Teeg was the big surprise, here. The rest were pretty obvious. I was a bit surprised to see Thoughtseize being played over Duress. Thoughtseize can be misdirected, while Duress cannot. However, Thoughtseize can nail creatures, and creatures are back in the format. Interesting.
It occurs to me that people will be wondering whether my comparison is valid — whether the number of playable cards as a percentage of available cards is valid for other formats.
I don’t have the Top 16 decklists for any recent events at hand, but I do have some to check.
For Extended, I checked the Top 8 decklists, including sideboard cards, for both the GenCon $1,000 event and the Top 8 from the recent Pro Tour. A quick count gives me 183 unique cards (excluding basic lands.)
For Standard, I am going to use some States results: T8s from Wisconsin and the T8 from GP Krakow. I get 205 unique cards, other than basic lands, in those decks.
Here’s the table:
| Format | Cards Played | Cards in Format | Percent Seeing Play |
| TS Block | 125 | 747 | 16.73% |
| Standard | 205 | 1539 | 13.32% |
| Extended | 183 | 5450 | 3.36% |
| Vintage | 144 | 9100 | 1.582% |
Someone else can do the counts for Legacy. It would also be useful to do a similar count for limited, but the methodology would have to be different. Counting sideboards in a limited event is pointless, since every card opened is in either the main deck or sideboard. It would probably require ranking the card pool as playable or not, and that would require one of the Limited experts.
So, getting back to where I started — most of the old sets are playable only in very large formats. This means that the number of playable cards in any give set is going to be very small. As a result, most of the cards should be quite inexpensive — and they are.
StarCityGames.com bottom price for a rare is $1.00. Most of the rares in the old sets are priced at that level. I pulled the prices for a number of old sets, and calculated the mean, median and mode for all rares in the sets. Mean is the “average” — the sum divided by the number of values. Median is the value of the middle of the range, when sorted high to low. Mode is the most common value. Both median and mode for all these sets are $1.00. A more interesting statistic is what portion of the cards in the set are worth more than a buck, and worth more than, say, five bucks.
I was going to start with Antiquities and Arabian Nights, but the really old sets have higher prices, even for the bad rares. Antiquities is also a pain to calculate because of all the different versions of Mishra’s Factory. For Arabian Nights, here’s the breakdown:
Price: Number of Rares at that Price
$ 5.00: 10
$ 7.50: 2
$10.00: 3
$12.50: 1
$15.00: 2
$25.00: 2
$30.00: 4
$35.00: 2
$40.00: 1
$50.00: 4
$60.00: 2
$175.00: 1
That would probably make a neat graph, but I’m too lazy. Of course, Excel will make a nice graph easily, but getting that into a web page is the problem. It copies, then someone has to spend a bunch of time cleaning it up. My birthday present to Craig: no graph.
Moving on to Ice Ages block, when I pulled prices off the StarCity web page, I got 121 rares. (Note: I’m stripping the web page and forcing it into Excel, the stripping off played versions, etc. I may miss cards, or double count something, so don’t take these counts as official.)
Ice Ages: Mean value: $1.36. Percent of rares priced at a buck: 82.
Cards priced $10.00 or over: (none)
Alliances: Mean value: $1.37. Percent of rares priced at a buck: 80.
Cards priced over $10.00: Force of Will.
Mirage: Mean value: $1.63. Percent of rares priced at a buck: 75.
Cards priced at over $10.00: Flash, Spirit of the Night, Lion’s Eye Diamond, Phyrexian Dreadnought.
Visions: Mean value: $1.75. Percent of rares priced at a buck: 64. (Yay, Visions!)
Cards priced $10.00 or over: Vampiric Tutor
Weatherlight: Mean value: $1.72. Percent of rares priced at a buck: 52.
Cards priced $10.00 or over: Null Rod
Mercadian Masques: Mean value: $1.77. Percent of rares priced at a buck: 64.
Cards priced $10.00 or over: Misdirection, Squee, Rishadan Port.
Nemesis: Mean value: $1.60. Percent of rares priced at a buck: 61.
Cards priced $10.00 or over: (none)
Prophecy: Mean value: $1.68. Percent of rares priced at a buck: 66.
Cards priced $10.00 or over: Avatar of Woe.
Well, arguing without data is pointless — it’s like arguing religions. In this case, though, I’m not sure what the data shows. The mean is often skewed. For example, if Bill Gates is in a kindergarten room with 20 preschoolers, then the mean says each kid is a multimillionaire.
These stats probably do say something about whether it is worth investing in old sets as they are released on MTGO, but that’s another article. From the standpoint of playing in sanctioned events, it looks strongly like buying singles is the way to go. (Of course, if no one opens the packs, the supply will be very low, and the price will skyrocket, meaning that dealers may bust packs — and round and round.)
PRJ
“one million words” on MTGO