In various prior articles (like this one),
I examined the economics of rare drafting online. Back then, it did not pay. I wondered whether Time Spiral —
with two rares per pack — changed that. The trick was getting hard data, without wasting the money actually
rare drafting. Fortunately, Richie Hoaen helped me out.
Rich has a feature in Premium called Drafting with Rich. It runs nearly every day. Each article he
walks through a draft, pack by pack, showing what he took — then ends with a decklist and notes on how he did
in the draft.
It’s valuable. It’s almost valuable enough to justify Premium all on its own. I read Drafting with
Rich religiously during Ravnica and Coldsnap season. My drafting got a lot better. I won enough packs, as a direct
result, to pay for a couple years of Premium.
Seriously — get Premium, read Rich. Unless, of course, you draft online. In that case, avoid it at all
costs. After all, the more bad players there are on MTGO, the better I will do. I want my free wins.
Rich’s articles can be put to another purpose, however. They have a complete listing of every card he saw
in a draft. All his opens, and everything he was passed. I can use (abuse? yeah, probably) that for rare-drafting
data.
Rich is drafting in the 8-4 queue. If you are going to rare draft, that’s the place to do it. Most 8-4
players are serious, so they tend to take playables over rares far more often than the 4-3-2-2 players.
I’ll look at several of Rich’s drafts, draft the rares and uncommons he saw, then look at the value
(online) of what that produced. For online values, I’ll use the prices of a reputable online seller with
reasonably competitive prices, a big inventory and a good reputation: in effect, a MTGO StarCityGames.com. I am also
discounting the online prices by eleven percent — that’s the discount if you buy credits for the
seller’s BOT via Paypal, then buy the cards at the BOT. For any given card, of course, you could eventually
luck into a BOT with a lower price, but his prices should give a competitive retail value for the cards drafted.
I’m not going to discuss paper values. While you can rare draft in real life, I don’t think you
would be able to do so very often before the really serious drafters stop letting you join. Or, if you are drafting
in drafts that typically allow rare drafting (e.g. at side events at a tournament, or at Gencon, or whatever) then
you probably won’t be the only person drafting rares, so your take will plummet. Of course, if you
could somehow draft like this in real life, you would make money.
For my rare drafting, I’m using the precious metals approach (gold, silver, foil), tempered with my
knowledge of what cards are playable online. Whenever I have a decision between two close cards, I’ll list the
pick I would make, followed by the debatable alternatives. Only after I have taken anything of value will I pick
with an eye towards winning the draft. (That’s why they call it rare drafting, after all.) I’ll list my
pick for each pack. (No, you don’t get to see all the cards or Rich’s picks — pay Premium for
that.) Then I’ll talk about playing out the draft (because nothing beats a handful of rares and more
packs.
If anyone wants to second-guess me on the picks, feel free. That’s what the forums are for. Or if you
want to talk about rare drafting in general, come chime in. But now, let’s draft!
Draft 1: Rich’s Time Spiral
#11:
Pack 1: Lotus Bloom, over Lord of Atlantis
Pack 2: Ancestral Vision (starting in the money, baby!)
Pack 3: Cockatrice (well, we were. Cockatrice is junk, as in 5 for a TIX or worse retail)
Pack 4: Demonic Collusion
Pack 5: Candles of Leng
Pack 6: Ghostflame Sliver
Pack 7: Paradise Plume over FOIL Havenwood Wurm
Pack 8: Assembly-Worker (the nickel uncommon beats the commons, and this card will make my sure-to-be-bad deck no
matter what colors I end up playing.)
Pack 9: Ironclaw Buzzardiers (nothing worth any money at all, might as well try to build a deck.)
Pack 10: Coal Stoker (ditto — and both the Buzzardiers and Worker can use the mana.)
Pack 11: Assembly-Worker
Pack 12: Urborg Syphon-Mage
Pack 13: Flickering Spirit
Pack 14: Divine Congregation
Pack 15: Two-Headed Sliver
Pack 16: Avatar of Woe over Stronghold Overseer
Pack 17: Wildfire Emissary over Pulmonic Sliver
Pack 18: FOIL Flowstone Channeler over Smallpox
Pack 19: Gaea’s Blessing
Pack 20: Mishra, Artificer Prodigy over Enduring Renewal
Pack 21: Dauthi Slayer over Ib Halfheart, Goblin Tactician
Pack 22: Might of Old Krosa
Pack 23: Basal Sliver
Pack 24: Harmonic Sliver
Pack 25: Spell Burst
Pack 26: Smallpox
Pack 27: Viashino Bladescout (in the real draft, Gaea’s Blessing tabled.)
Pack 28: Ironclaw Buzzardiers
Pack 29: Detainment Spell
Pack 30: Ancient Grudge
Pack 31: Sedge Sliver over Thallid (tough choice that, eh?)
Pack 32: Think Twice over Goblin Snowman (Think Twice costs a nickel more)
Pack 33: FOIL Ghostflame Sliver over Leviathan
Pack 34: Fungus Sliver
Pack 35: Resurrection
Pack 36: Scryb Ranger
Pack 37: Dreadship Reef
Pack 38: Undead Warchief
Pack 39: Thallid
Pack 40: Goblin Snowman
Pack 41: Leviathan
Pack 42: Barbed Shocker
Pack 43: Ophidian Eye
Pack 44: Aspect of Mongoose
Pack 45: Ghitu Firebreathing
Rares & Timeshifted cards: 17
Uncommons: 15
Approximate Value: $16.75 retail
Deck:
Dauthi Slayer
Avatar of Woe
Basal Sliver
Smallpox
Undead Warchief
Urborg Syphon-Mage
FOIL Flowstone Channeler
Viashino Bladescout
2 Ironclaw Buzzardiers
Goblin Snowman
Barbed Shocker
Wildfire Emissary
Coal Stoker
Sedge Sliver
2 Ghostflame Sliver
Mishra, Artificer Prodigy
Think Twice
Spell Burst
Ancestral Vision
2Assembly-Worker
Dreadship Reef
Islands, Mountains, Swamps
Prognosis: not terrible. The deck has no removal (unless you live long enough to get Avatar of
Woe into play), but it does have a curve and some early drops. It is probably worth playing it out. It would take a
miracle to win packs, but a decent matchup round 1, followed by some luck (meaning your opponent gets mana screwed or
flooded in two games) and you might make it to splitsville.
…
Draft #2: Rich’s Time Spiral #
9
Pack 1: Swarmyard over Merfolk Assassin (welcome to rare drafter hell)
Pack 2: Lightning Angel (okay, that’s more like it!)
Pack 3: Essence Sliver
Pack 4: Browbeat over Scion of the Ur-Dragon (the dragon will table)
Pack 5: Suq’Ata Lancer over Fallen Ideal, etc.
Pack 6: Spined Sliver
Pack 7: Wall of Roots
Pack 8: Barbed Shocker over FOIL Island
Pack 9: Merfolk Assassin
Pack 10: Truth or Tale
Pack 11: Krosan Grip
Pack 12: Scion of the Ur-Dragon (See? It tabled.)
Pack 13: Fallen Ideal
Pack 14 & 15: trash
Pack 16: Ancestral Vision
Pack 17: Pardic Dragon over Feldon’s Cane
Pack 18: Ghost Ship
Pack 19: Orgg
Pack 20: Evil Eye of Urborg over Squire
Pack 21: Angel’s Grace over Demonic Collusion
Pack 22: Harmonic Sliver over Durkwood Tracker (HS sees some Constructed play)
Pack 23: Molten Slagheap
Pack 24: Venser’s Sliver
Pack 25: Feldon’s Cane
Pack 26: Pendelhaven Elder
Pack 27: Aetherflame Wall
Pack 28 – 30: blah
Pack 31: Sarpadian Empires, Vol. VII over Krosan Cloudscraper
Pack 32: Saffi Eriksdotter over Stupor
Pack 33: Trickbind
Pack 34: Magus of the Scroll
Pack 35: Sprite Noble
Pack 36: Scion of the Ur-Dragon
Pack 37: Kher Keep over Darkness
Pack 38: Stormcloud Djinn
Pack 39: Krosan Cloudscraper
Pack 40: Locket of Yesterdays
Pack 41: Thallid Shell-Dweller
Pack 42: Return to Dust
Pack 43: Spirit Loop
Pack 44: Return to Dust
Pack 45: Sangrophage
Rares & Timeshifted cards: 25
Uncommons: 12
Approximate Value: $14.10 retail
Deck & Prognosis: Hang it up. You are going to lose the points. Five colors decks with no
mana fixers or removal, and — at best — a dozen playable creatures are not going to win two rounds in an
8-4. If every game you had the turn 4 Lightning Angel, maybe you could squeak something out, but probably not even
then.
…
Draft #3 Rich’s Time Spiral
#8
Pack 1: Sol’kanar the Swamp King over Fortune Thief
Pack 2: Restore Balance over Grinning Totem
Pack 3: Magus of the Jar
Pack 4: Undertaker
Pack 5: Claws of Gix
Pack 6: FOIL Terramorphic Expanse
Pack 7: Magus of the Candelabra over War Barge
Pack 8: Dread Return
Pack 9: Firewake Sliver
Pack 10: Grinning Totem
Pack 11: Locket of Yesterdays
Pack 12: Plated Pegasus
Pack 13: Truth or Tale
Pack 14: Aspect of Mongoose
Pack 15: Detainment Spell
Pack 16: FOIL Rift Bolt ($2+) over Chronosavant (under $0.50)
Pack 17: Gemstone Mine ($$$s) over Magus of the Mirror
Pack 18: Wall of Roots
Pack 19: Vesuva
Pack 20: Tivadar of Thorn
Pack 21: Dralnu, Lich Lord
Pack 22: Auratog over Curse of the Cabal
Pack 23: Kobold Taskmaster
Pack 24: Krosan Cloudscraper
Pack 25: Paradox Haze
Pack 26: Assembly-Worker over Opaline Sliver
Pack 27: Assembly-Worker
Pack 28 — 30: blah
Pack 31: Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir
Pack 32: Word of Seizing
Pack 33: Lotus Bloom over Merfolk Assassin (should have taken the War Barge pack one because the Assassin will
table…)
Pack 34: Merieke Ri Berit
Pack 35: Teferi’s Moat
Pack 36: Nether Traitor
Pack 37: Deep-Sea Kraken
Pack 38: Harmonic Sliver
Pack 39: Fungal Reaches
Pack 40: Saltcrusted Steppe
Pack 41: Merfolk Assassin (yup, it tabled.)
Pack 42: Fallen Ideal
Pack 43 — 45 : trash
Rares & Timeshifted cards: 23
Uncommons: 18
Approximate Value: $24.30(!) retail
Deck & Prognosis: Just drop. You have 20 creatures, if you count Merfolk
Assassin, Dralnu, Auratog, Kobold Taskmaster, and Krosan Cloudchaser. Of the rest, Teferi costs UUU, Nether
Traitor BB, Word of Seizing RR and Tivadar WW. To win packs with this pile would require every opponent to
disconnect and stay disconnected.
…
Draft #4: Rich’s Time Spiral
#7
Pack 1: Stronghold Overseer over Soul Collector
Pack 2: Nicol Bolas
Pack 3: Wall of Roots
Pack 4: Spell Burst over Norin the Wary and Auratog
Pack 5: Evil Eye of Orms-by-Gore
Pack 6: Gaea’s Liege
Pack 7: Gemstone Mine (A true rare drafter takes a victory lap at this point, because a 7th pick Mines means he is
the only rare drafter at the table.)
Pack 8: Dementia Sliver
Pack 9: Paradox Haze
Pack 10: Ironclaw Buzzardiers
Pack 11: Return to Dust
Pack 12: Norin the Wary
Pack 13: Psychotic Episode
Pack 14: Fool’s Demise
Pack 15: Ophidian Eye
Pack 16: Gauntlet of Power over Merieke Ri Berit
Pack 17: Liege of the Pit over Merfolk Assassin
Pack 18: Thelon of Havenwood
Pack 19: Mystic Enforcer
Pack 20: Teferi’s Moat
Pack 21: Evil Eye of Orms-by-Gore over Swarmyard
Pack 22: Skittering Monstrosity
Pack 23: Ignite Memories
Pack 24: Spiketail Drakeling over Aspect of Mongoose
Pack 25: Merfolk Assassin
Pack 26: Urza’s Factory
Pack 27: Krosan Grip
Pack 28: Locket of Yesterdays
Pack 29 & 30: Mystical Teachings & Volcanic Awakening
Pack 31: Shadowmage Infiltrator
Pack 32: Sol’kanar the Swamp King
Pack 33: Restore Balance over Grinning Totem
Pack 34: Flagstones of Trokair
Pack 35: Basalt Gargoyle over Yavimaya Dryad and Eron the Relentless (A tiny bow to maybe having a playable deck at
the end — no money in any case.)
Pack 36: Evangelize
Pack 37: Calciform Pools over FOIL Drudge Reavers
Pack 38: Stormcloud Djinn
Pack 39: Durkwood Tracker
Pack 40: Living End
Pack 41: Evil Eye of Urborg (Boo – the Totem didn’t table.)
Pack 42 on — junk.
Rares & Timeshifted: 20
Uncommons: 13
Approximate Value: $15.50 retail
Deck: You have to go R/U/B. G/W doesn’t have enough cards.
Stronghold Overseer
Nicol Bolas
Shadowmage Infiltrator
Sol’kanar the Swamp King
Liege of the Pit
Skittering Monstrosity
Spiketail Drakeling
Dementia Sliver
2 Evil Eye of Orms-by-Gore
Ironclaw Buzzardiers
Basalt Gargoyle
Stormcloud Djinn
Spell Burst
Psychotic Episode
Fool’s Demise
Ophidian Eye
Paradox Haze
Ignite Memories
Teferi’s Moat (off Gemstone Mine or Calciform Pools…)
Living End (because you need a 22nd card)
Gemstone Mine
Urza’s Factory
Calciform Pools
Prognosis: stranger things have happened. Still, you are far more likely to beat yourself
(e.g. having an Evil Eye stop your other attackers) than to pull this out.
One more for the road…
…
Draft #5: Rich’s Time Spiral
#10
Pack 1: Psionic Sliver
Pack 2: Stonebrow, Krosan Hero over Moorish Cavalry
Pack 3: Wurmcalling
Pack 4: Desert
Pack 5: FOIL Pendelhaven Elder over Giant Oyster
Pack 6: Fury Sliver over Gemhide Sliver (no money cards)
Pack 7: Honorable Passage
Pack 8: Blazing Blade Askari, over Truth or Tale
Pack 9: Evil Eye of Orms-by-Gore
Pack 10: Assembly-Worker
Pack 11: Avoid Fate
Pack 12: Barbed Shocker
Pack 13: Locket of Yesterdays
Pack 14: Glass Asp
Pack 15: Voidmage Husher
Pack 16: FOIL Rift Bolt over Restore Balance & Hail Storm
Pack 17: Draining Whelk
Pack 18: Undertaker over Foil Vampiric Sliver
Pack 19: Thallid
Pack 20: Might of Old Krosa
Pack 21: Avalanche Riders
Pack 22: Grinning Totem
Pack 23: Assembly-Worker
Pack 24: Restore Balance
Pack 25: Savage Thallid over junk
Pack 26: Thallid Germinator over Assembly-Worker
Pack 27: Barbed Shocker
Pack 28: Primal Forcemage
Pack 29: Shadow Sliver
Pack 30: Haunting Hymn
Pack 31: FOIL Walk the Aeons
Pack 32: Dragonstorm
Pack 33: Gemstone Mine
Pack 34: Brine Elemental
Pack 35: Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
Pack 36: Pirate Ship
Pack 37: Flamecore Elemental over Quilled Sliver & Thunder Totem
Pack 38: Wall of Roots
Pack 39: Curse of the Cabal
Pack 40: Dralnu, Lich Lord
Pack 41: Ashcoat Bear
Pack 42: Bogardan Rager over Krosan Grip
Pack 43: Kobold Taskmaster
Pack 44: Volcanic Awakening
Pack 45: Brass Gnat
Rares & Timeshifted cards: 22
Uncommons: 12
Approximate Value: $19.80
Deck:
FOIL Rift Bolt
Wurmcalling
Avoid Fate
Might of Old Krosa
FOIL Pendelhaven Elder
Fury Sliver
Blazing Blade Askari
Barbed Shocker
Glass Asp
Thallid
Avalanche Riders
2 Assembly-Worker
Savage Thallid
Thallid Germinator
Barbed Shocker
Primal Forcemage
Brine Elemental (morph)
2 Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
Flamecore Elemental
Wall of Roots
Ashcoat Bear
Bogardan Rager
Gemstone Mine
Desert
Prognosis: You could steal a match, maybe two in a 4-3-2-2 with this deck. This is an 8-4.
You are playing off color morphs and Thallid (not Thallid Something – actual Thallid.) No chance.
…
Conclusions:
I didn’t select the drafts to redraft. I just chose five at random. They look pretty typical.
Our rare drafter would have spent ten tix and fifteen packs to do these five rare drafts. If he bought the tix
and packs at the online store, and paid what I pay in taxes, he would have spent about $74. Online, draft sets are
running fourteen tix or so a draft set, meaning that he would have spent a total of eighty tix. Since you can
usually buy tix for about ninety cents each (online, in bulk), that comes out about even.
Our rare drafter also sacrificed some ratings points.
Let’s look at what our hypothetical rare drafter got for that investment.
| Draft | Rares & Shifted | Uncommons | Value |
| 1 | 17 | 15 | $ 16.75 |
| 2 | 25 | 12 | $ 14.10 |
| 3 | 23 | 18 | $ 24.30 |
| 4 | 20 | 13 | $ 15.50 |
| 5 | 22 | 12 | $ 19.80 |
| TOTAL | 107 | 70 | $80.55 |
In short, the value of the cards drafted was slightly — but only slightly — above the cost of the
drafts, and that’s assuming the time spent drafting is worth nothing. That value is the sum of retail prices:
if our rare drafter were trying to sell these cards, the price he could expect would be significantly lower and he
will have lost money on the deal.
Let’s break down the cards he got a little further.
Our rare drafter got seventeen rares that are being played in Tier 1 decks. The bulk of those are lands —
he picked up six staple lands worth $22. He also picked up a few staples or chase cards, like Dragonstorm, Teferi
(which he opened), and so forth. He didn’t get cards like Bogardan Hellkite to go with the Dragonstorm, of
course — no one passes dragons in draft — but rare drafting does seem provide some decent staples. In
this case, the total value of the staples was about $45. Here’s the list:
Tournament worthy Rares:
2 Lotus Bloom
Lightning Angel
Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir
Draining Whelk
Dragonstorm
Trickbind
Magus of the Scroll
3 Gemstone Mine
Vesuva
Flagstones of Trokair
Desert
Our rare drafter also picked up another twenty or so rares / Timeshifted cards that are worthwhile sideboard
cards, or that might have future value in block, or are cool enough to have Timmy value. Some of these cards are
appearing in decks as singletons (Dralnu, Teferi’s Moat) — and our rare drafter got two copies
of each of those. A couple of these cards are decent in Constructed — but our rare drafter only got one
complete playset: Wall of Roots.
Chase Cards / Timmy Cards / for possible future use:
Avatar of Woe
2 Ancestral Vision
Gaea’s Blessing
Dauthi Slayer
4 Wall of Roots
Pardic Dragon
2 Dralnu, Lich Lord
2 Teferi’s Moat
Gauntlet of Power
Mystic Enforcer
Shadowmage Infiltrator
Honorable Passage
Avalanche Riders
Finally, our rare drafter has increased his collection of tournament worthy uncommons. Most of these are
sideboard a cards and very few are worth more than about twenty cents, but this might help his sideboarding. This
list is short, however — maybe two dozen at best. (I’m probably missing some — but not many.)
Tournament worthy Uncommons:
2 Spell Burst
Smallpox
Think Twice
2 Truth or Tale
2 Krosan Grip
4 Locket of Yesterdays
Dread Return
Return to Dust
2 Ignite Memories
Urza’s Factory
Might of Old Krosa
Asst. storage lands
So, our hypothetical rare drafter would have picked up 107 rares and Timeshifted cards. Of these, maybe three
dozen are really good, and another dozen reasonably desirable. In other words — over half of the rares he
drafted are trash.
Our rare drafter might have broken even if he needs all the cards he got: meaning if he has no Time Spiral cards
and wants to play a lot of different Constructed decks. Of course, in that case, he could spend just a
little more and buy complete sets. A complete set of Time Spiral cards are going, on eBay, for about $80, and
complete Timeshifted sets seem to run about $100. I saw one combination that went for $130, but even assuming that
the price for the combination is $175, then our rare drafter could have a playset of everything for about $700. That
would give him the playsets of Psionic Blast, Akroma, and Call of the Herd that he will never get rare drafting.
Note also that rare drafting will only pay as well as this did the first half dozen times someone tries it. The
sort of cards that are going to be passed around and around in draft are specialty lands – Gemstone Mines, Flagstones
of Trokair, etc, and Constructed-only cards like Dragonstorm. Once our rare drafter has accumulated a playset of
those, his fifth copy will drop markedly in value. Our rare drafter may be able to trade it for something more
useful to him, but only by expending time and effort trading. He could also sell the card — but then Gemstone
Mines becomes a 2-3 tix card, instead of a 4-5 tix card.
Rare drafting becomes more worthwhile as the retail price of cards is high — like right after the release.
Right now, the prices of most of Time Spiral block cards is low — only a handful cost more than the pack they
come in, and nothing (except Call of the Herd) is over $5.50. There are no Pithing Needles or Hallowed Fountains in
Here’s a breakdown on card values.
| Price Range | Time Spiral Rares | Timeshifted |
| $0.01 – $0.20 | 19 | 53 |
| $0.21 – $0.50 | 38 | 27 |
| $0.51 – $1.00 | 10 | 17 |
| $1.01 – $2.00 | 7 | 11 |
| $2.01 – $3.99 | 3 | 9 |
| $4.00 or higher | 3 | 4 |
For what it’s worth, here are the cards selling more than the price of a pack:
Flagstones of Trokair
Lotus Bloom
Bogardan Hellkite
Gemstone Mine
Soltari Priest
Psionic Blast
Call of the Herd
In short, until the price of singles goes back up, rare drafting Time Spiral won’t pay.
Do you disagree? Head for the forums.
PRJ
pete {dot} jahn {at} Verizon {dot} com
PS: The feedback on my last article made my day. Thanks!