“Luis Scott-Vargas joins Brian Kibler and Alex Binek on the US National Team. The final spot will be determined at the World Magic Cup Qualifier in Baltimore this weekend…”
Ok, first off, I just bought a plane ticket to Baltimore. I wasn’t going to go to the World Magic Cup Qualifiers. The first one was during the Magic Cruise, and the next two followed a long string of events and weekend engagements that have left me without a single day off in months. A number of reservations I have about the structure of the current WMCQ (primarily in the US) left these events as the most skippable.
Look, I really was going to skip them. Really.
I even managed to stay home this past weekend after getting back from the Magic Cruise to Alaska late Friday night. However, watching LSV take home the slot to join Team USA has me wanting to swing for it. Being on a US National Team is an accomplishment I have yet to achieve and representing the country would be a true honor. This is a particularly awesome team, and to make it even better, there is a completely broken deck that only half of the field is playing.
The prospect of flying cross-country to attend what, in many ways, amounts to a glorified PTQ, was not particularly appealing. Don’t get me wrong; this isn’t just a dollars per time type of equation or I would obviously be going to the SCG Invitational in Indianapolis. Even counting the plane ticket and the equity from the invite, the SCG Invitational offers twelve times the prize support of the WMCQ!
Obviously, it is the prestige of the World Magic Cup (and being on the National Team) that are the draw. Unfortunately, splintering the National Championships (which were exceptionally prestigious and historic events) into three qualifier tournaments that each feature one winner (and everyone else losing, given that there are no pro points as there used to be at Nationals) does much to detract from the prestige of the event.
Combine this with the fact that most of the best players aren’t even showing up as they cannot justify the time and expense, and you are left with an event that is a lower level of legitimacy. After all, with such weak prize support (a few pro points would have gone a long way), one slot at each, instead of 3-4, and no chance of actually being National Champ, it is a much tougher sell.
This is not to be all doom and gloom, of course. This is the first year of a new program, and there are obviously a few kinks to work out. This model was selected because it is believed to be optimal for the most countries. Unfortunately, the US is among the absolute worst to use this model in. Yes, National Championships did not really work for most countries; however, they worked extremely well in the US and I have great hopes that next year a system that allows the US to use a different setup than Iceland is adopted, as each country has its own needs.
It was disappointing but not exactly a shock to learn that the attendance at the St. Louis WMCQ was terrible (about 143). Some predicted the attendance would rebound for the WMCQ in Oakland this past weekend, but just 119 players showed up (with a number canceling their trips, determining it was just not worth it).
The problem wasn’t just lack of prize support however. Very little publicity and many people not realizing they were even qualified probably contributed, along with a near total lack of coverage. The US National Championships always carried with it more hype, more interest, and more weight.
It is easy to blame the current stale Standard format (a format that managed to make it through the previous two sets without truly stagnating). However, SCG Open Series attendance reveals that it is definitely not that people are not interested in playing Standard. There were 497 players in the SCG Standard Open in Columbus and 502 players in the SCG Standard Open in Worcester this past weekend!
While the WMCQ are not open events, the bar to entry is definitely very low by invite standards. You need to qualify for a single bye at a GP to be able to compete. That is half of many Grand Prix crowds.
I am not a fan of the current Standard format, which is completely broken; however, I am a fan of winning. My enthusiasm for playing the format has increased a bit after getting to play some with Delver. I never like to have to join the bad guys, but honestly, it is not close. If Caw-Blade had not been last year, this would be the most broken deck in years. Delver isn’t really the way you want to have to do it, but the prospect of joining Kibler, Luis, and Alex on the US National Team is very alluring.
On the Magic Cruise, Luis and I got to do a fair bit of testing, where it became quite clear that Delver is absolutely broken and that it is not even close to worth trying to beat it. I was able to build a Grixis deck that could carry a small edge, but the field is just not going to be the 70% Delver it would take to justify it. Playing Grixis in Orlando was a different story, since that Grixis deck defeated those Delver decks roughly 85/15 instead of 60/40.
One of the numerous decks I tested on the Cruise was Raka Miracles. This list was performing well for me and was a ton of fun to spellsling with against all challengers; however, it has a bit of a weakness to Sword of War and Peace. Still, if you can address that problem (or there are not a ton of them in your local meta), I definitely recommend checking it out.
Planeswalkers (2)
Lands (25)
Spells (34)
Sword of War and Peace is obviously problematic, as it kills you so fast and can’t be slowed by Feeling of Dread or Entreat the Angels. Still, the deck’s core engine is strong and is particularly effective at punishing players unfamiliar with how to play against miracle decks (which takes learning how much to commit to the board versus how much to hold back). Besides, hitting miracles really is a ton of fun, and this deck gets to do that more than most.
With eleven cantrips, you definitely can afford to blow them early to fix your mana a little more than the Block versions can. As a reminder, Pristine Talisman is absolutely fantastic in miracle decks as they slow the game down so much (meaning you have so many more turns to tap the Talisman), plus life gain is the exact element the miracle decks needed most.
Even though Pristine Talisman is significantly better than Vessel of Endless Rest, I do miss the restocking ability a little, as an unlucky Thought Scour or two can make actually winning games challenging. The Noxious Revival helps (obviously great with miracles), but we might need another victory condition on top of that. Devil’s Play is one option as is a second Bonfire, but the real answer might just be a Snapcaster Mage (or two). The ability to cycle through your deck quickly makes Snapcaster Mage potentially hitting Noxious Revival an invaluable tactical tool for closing out games.
As much as I would to play Miracles or Grixis, sadly, Delver is really that broken. Here is the starting point that I am going to tune this week:
Creatures (16)
Lands (22)
Spells (22)
This is the list LSV used to win this past weekend and features a few changes to evolve the basic concept that Gerry and the rest of the Team SCG Blue guys used to dominate in Nashville.
The most glaring change is the move from Sword of Feast and Famine to Sword of War and Peace. Sword of Feast and Famine is optimal against U/B and Esper Control decks as well as Wolf Run Ramp; however, Luis expected a rise in the popularity of mirror matches (where Sword of War and Peace is preferable). I have to admit, if everyone adopts Sword of War and Peace that is a huge incentive to give a second look to Grixis, as Sword of Feast and Famine has always been a challenging problem. Still, Restoration Angel is such a powerful new dimension that it’s probably not worth it.
Restoration Angel is one of the best new cards on raw power, but to really appreciate what it does for Delver it is useful to reflect on the old Faeries deck. One of the weaknesses of Faeries was its rather squishy bodies (primarily one-toughness). Mistbind Clique wasn’t just a powerhouse on card quality; it shored up a major weakness, giving Faeries a relatively large creature with a lot of durability. Fighting through Restoration Angels bares some similarities to fighting through Mistbind Cliques.
Faeries would have been much, much less dangerous without Mistbinds, so imagine this scenario. Imagine if Mistbind Clique weren’t legal, but Faeries was still the best deck. Then, instead of Volcanic Fallout getting printed, Wizards printed Mistbind Clique and gave Faeries this new dimension instead of a new weakness. That is Restoration Angel (a card that people should be playing four of in their Delver decks, as Luis has adopted).
Some people have talked about cutting Thought Scour, but it is too important to have the option of Angeling your Snapcaster at instant speed and drawing a card. Having access to a couple goes a long way. The one Dismember seems kind of random, but with so much library manipulation you have greater chances of finding it in the right spots than one might imagine.
The other big change to Luis’s maindeck is the adoption of Cavern of Souls (in large numbers). Luis (correctly) anticipated a field absolutely filled to the brim with Mana Leaks, and the mana in Delver is so good it is easy to make room for some. Naming Angel or Spirit gives you effectively more white mana than you would have otherwise, plus lets you blank Mana Leak more effectively. Naming Human helps with Delver and Snapcaster and helps make the double white of Hero of Bladehold more realistic.
As for the sideboard, Hero of Bladehold is the most important twist, a new plan developed to help make up some lost ground against Wolf Run. Now that the secret is out, however, the Wolf Run players are surely going to adapt. Plummet had just gained widespread adoption (hitting Delver, Angel, and Consecrated Sphinx), but now the use of Hero of Bladehold is going to have more players evaluating other options such as Dismember and Combust. This just means that Delver’s next secret sideboard weapon is going to have to dodge these cards.
Just to provide some more data to consider when evaluating options for this weekend, here is an update of the metagame data we have for recent Standard. This breakdown takes into consideration all of the SCG Open Series and Grand Prix data available since Avacyn Restored was released; however, World Magic Cup Qualifier metagame information has not been available (which seems related to the lack of coverage).
This breakdown is weighted by performance, with first place getting 6 points, second getting 5, third-fourth getting 4, fifth-eighth getting 3, Top 16 getting 2, and Top 32 getting 1. Dividing by the total number of points available gives us our winner’s circle metagame, which can be very useful for identifying what we should be testing against (and will have to face, most of the time, after the first couple of rounds).
Standard Metagame
Averaging May and June’s metagame data together gives us the estimated metagame breakdown that we would normally use to anticipate next week’s field; however, Angel-Delver has had such a dramatic impact on the format that I thought it prudent to also include a look at just the metagame of the past three weeks (that followed Ben Friedman unveiling Angel-Delver at GP Minneapolis).
As you can see, Standard is a giant joke. It is not healthy for a deck to be dominating this way, and this goes significantly beyond Faeries or Jund levels of dominance. Some players have questioned why people are so alarmed about this deck. After all, at this point it is just three weeks of dominance, right?
Well, no. Delver has been absolutely destroying this entire year. It is just that in the last three weeks, a deck that was already the best and dominating at unhealthy levels gained an extremely powerful tool that pushes it into a spot where it basically beats everything. Delver was already more dominant than Faeries. Now, it is starting to get into Caw-Blade space.
For some perspective on just how long Delver has had an iron grip on Standard, let’s start with a few facts. First of all, if you add up the 29 Standard Grand Prix, SCG Open Series, and SCG Invitationals held this year (216 Top 8 slots), we see a total of 92 Delver decks. Delver has actually taken 42.6% of the Top 8 slots this year! Before jumping to any conclusions about SCG Open Series being unnaturally dominated by Delver, it is important to note that there have been six standard Grand Prix during this time, of which 20/48 slots went to Delver; a nearly identical 41.6%. Additionally, these numbers are not weighted for finish, which would favor Delver even more.
When is enough, enough?
It isn’t like Delver just burst on to the scene this year or anything. Yes, last year people didn’t really know how to build good Delver decks yet; however, it still showed up a ton. Remember, it was the most popular deck at Worlds last year and has actually taken 35.8% of the all Grand Prix, SCG Open Series, and SCG Invitational Top 8 slots since Innistrad was printed!
Does this mean Snapcaster Mage is going to be banned? No, even though it probably should be. The last thing Wizards wants is for its customers to be scared that WotC is just going to ban their favorite card after they drop big bucks on a playset. It is not that expensive cards can’t get banned (as Jace and Stoneforge prove the opposite); it is that the exciting chase cards that help drive a set are definitely held to a slightly different standard than reprinted commons that have already been banned in other formats. Really, if anything is going to be banned, it will be Ponder.
So does this mean Ponder is getting banned?
There is a good chance it will not.
See, here’s the funny thing. The SCG Standard Open this past weekend got 502 players. The SCG Standard Open last weekend got 497. Obviously, people are still enjoying the format and are still going to tournaments. Delver may be more dominant than Faeries or Jund, but tournament attendance has not suffered.
When Jace the Mind Sculptor and Stoneforge Mystic got banned last year, tournament attendance was down dramatically, as people were just so sick of playing with and against Caw-Blade. Delver, despite its many similarities, has not had this effect on tournament attendance (yet).
With Ponder all but officially not in M13, there is definitely a lot of appeal to the idea of riding it out. By the time M13 and Return to Ravnica were developed, WotC knew how big of a mistake they had made with Snapcaster Mage and surely have pored over every card file with a fine-toothed comb looking for cards that break with Snapcaster Mage. If tournament attendance stays up, maybe we can just deal with a summer of over half Caw-Blade (err, Delver) and ride it out.
Personally, I think it is a bad idea to let the format go the direction it’s going. It is broken in a very similar direction to how it was broken last year (even if not to the same degree). Maybe there is some new spoiler in M13 that turns everything on its end, but I doubt it. If Ponder isn’t banned, I have a feeling M13’s impact on tournament play is going to be overshadowed by Delver continuing to outperform all other decks combined.
Historically, players do not like formats like that, and attendance will start to suffer. I am sympathetic to the argument that we should wait until it does before acting; however, the current system only allows bans every three months. Do we really want to wait through every single tournament between now and October for Ponder to be gone? That is a lot of fun and interesting Magic that will be lost to the endless Delver mirror matches.
There is not the public outcry the same way there was with Jace and Stoneforge. People are starting to talk about it, but it might take another month, maybe six weeks for public opinion to be at the point where attendance is suffering and demands for change are being made.
The new banned list comes out in two weeks.
I don’t think it will be anywhere near the death of Magic if Ponder isn’t banned. In fact, I don’t think it will even stop the unprecedented growth we are experiencing. However, I do think attendance will suffer, the growth will slow, people will watch and play less Magic, and we will see M13 lose a lot of the spotlight it deserves.
Whether you believe Ponder should be banned or not, now is the time to speak up. Let Wizards know how you feel. Tournament attendance will eventually tell the tale, but we do have a chance to let our voices contribute before the decisions are made. Additionally, please share what the composition of FNMs are looking like. Numbers like 41.6% of the top slots at the most competitive events are very alarming, but if Delver isn’t disrupting local FNMs, there is certainly less reason for something to be done.
With all these ban talks, the World Magic Cup Qualifiers, and the upcoming Invitational, it is easy to forget that M13 comes out next month. Already previews and spoilers are emerging. Exalted is the mechanic that is being revisited (as bloodthirst was in M12 and scry in M11) and the Titans, Mana Leak, and Ponder are all (supposedly) gone, clearing the way for a ton of other cards to shine.
One that is fairly exciting is Flames of the Firebrand. This is a functional reprint of Arc Lightning with a new Chandra-centric flavor. How well has this former tournament staple aged over the past 12 years? We are about to find out.
We have already had a taste on account of Arc Trail offering us the 2-1 split for only two mana. How much are the other options worth? How valuable is it to be able to hit three targets for one each (potentially killing a third creature) or hitting a single target for three (potentially killing larger creatures or burning people out better)? Arc Trail has made plenty of appearances. How much will costing an extra mana hurt it?
A red card that is even more exciting is the Firewing Phoenix:
Firewing Phoenix 1RRR
Creature – Phoenix
Flying
1RRR: Return Firewing Phoenix from your graveyard to your hand.
4/2
There have been a lot of very good Phoenix cards over the years, and this is certainly no exception. Chandra’s Phoenix has had more impact than most red cards over the past year, and Firewing Phoenix is actually good in a slightly different direction.
Just as Chandra’s Phoenix was good enough to play without the Phoenix ability (2/2 flying, haste for three), Firewing Phoenix gives us a 4/2 flier for four, which has to already be in the discussion. While Chandra’s Phoenix required a deck full of burn to utilize, Firewing Phoenix asks for only red mana.
While Firewing Phoenix isn’t likely to be as good in Mono Red as Chandra’s Phoenix (particularly costing the same as Hellrider), it has a good chance of making it in some kind of red midrange or control deck. It is a reliable victory condition and has tons of great synergies, particularly Desolate Lighthouse. That it is a 4/2 instead of a 2/2 is going to cause it to trade up a surprising amount of the time, not to mention being able to kill people surprisingly fast (particularly when complemented by Bonfires or Devil’s Play).
Another card that everyone is talking about is Jace’s Phantasm. Some people consider it the next Vexing Devil, while others fear it may be the next Delver.
Creature – Illusion
Flying
Jace’s Phantasm gets +4/+4 as long as any opponent has 10 or more cards in their graveyard.
Personally, I think it is a card that’s power level is so completely dependent on the card file that we just have to wait and see what M13 brings. Without question, though, it has more potential upside than Vexing Devil (as it is potentially a 5/5 flier for one that you can actually control the output of) while having less downside (a 1/1 flier is better than a Lava Spike you can’t count on). At the end of the day, Flying Man is really not that bad, so upside Flying Man has my attention.
One last new card I want to touch on briefly is Encrust, a card that alludes to areas we should keep a close eye on when evaluating M13 cards.
Encrust 1UU
Enchantment – Aura
Enchant artifact or creature.
Enchanted permanent doesn’t untap and its activated abilities can’t be activated.
This card was very clearly developed with Swords in mind, as it takes a natural blue ability and twists it a bit to try to give more people answers to them. We wouldn’t want this all the time, but given how overpowered the Swords are, it is nice to have more safety valves available. The important thing to look for in M13 is what other cards were developed to help address existing problems. Is there something for Snapcaster? Delver? Titans? Lingering Souls? Planeswalkers? Strangleroot Geist? Geist of Saint Traft? Geralf’s Messenger?
It isn’t just the new cards nor the cards that are leaving that has M13 so exciting; it is also the right kind of reprints. Sign in Blood, Essence Scatter, Duress, and Nicol Bolas are all supposed to be back, which is a pretty good start if you ask me.
Ok, I am out for this week. I gotta get down to tuning this Delver list now that I am headed to Baltimore. Regardless of if you are hitting the SCG Open Series featuring the Invitational in Indianapolis, the WMCQ in Baltimore, or just a local tournament, you know who you are going to have to beat if you want to win the title. Additionally, if you want your voice to be heard regarding banning Ponder, speak up or forever hold your peace. This one is not nearly as clear cut as Caw-Blade was, but it is more oppressive than Faeries or Jund ever were and banning Ponder really would help a ton (even though it would still be a tier 1 archetype).
What would you ban, if anything?
What have local FNMs been looking like?
Should anything go on or come off the lists in Legacy or Vintage?
Patrick Chapin
“The Innovator”