Splinter Twin against Amulet Bloom in the finals.
To me, that is the epitome of a Modern Pro Tour, particularly one following an impactful B&R update.
The Ripple Effect
When a card is banned, it affects more than just the deck that contained its namesake. When Birthing Pod gets banned, it means that decks that were held
down by Pod, such as Jund or Abzan, are going to get much better. That might close the door on some archetypes, but open the door for others. In truth,
there is far more to consider than just “Is Birthing Pod too good?”
What happens to the format once Birthing Pod is gone also matters, possibly more than the Pod itself.
Level 0
So, with Birthing Pod out of the format, it looked like Jund or Abzan was primed to reclaim its spot as top dog in Modern. When Pod was legal, B/G/X had
slowly disappeared from the format due to having one of the best decks being a pretty bad matchup. Some people, like Sam Pardee, built a deck that looked
like Pod without the Birthing Pods.
Creatures (27)
- 4 Birds of Paradise
- 3 Kitchen Finks
- 3 Wilt-Leaf Liege
- 4 Noble Hierarch
- 2 Qasali Pridemage
- 3 Loxodon Smiter
- 4 Voice of Resurgence
- 4 Siege Rhino
Lands (23)
Spells (10)
Level 0 was to play the best deck itself, like Jesse Hampton did. That’s a fine play for someone who doesn’t want to put in the effort to find something a
little sweeter.
Creatures (12)
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (25)
Spells (19)
Then there’s what Eric Froehlich did, which is play the Level 0 deck, but tune it to beat the mirror.
Creatures (15)
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (24)
Spells (18)
One thing that’s in common with all of these strategies is that they all make removal pretty bad. Each of these decks has four Lingering Souls maindeck,
which is the obvious place to turn if you want to fight B/G mirrors. Jacob and Fro Dog Millionaire took it a step further by including trumps for the quad
Souls mirror in Zealous Persecution and Gavony Township. Jacob Wilson went even further than that with Voice of Resurgence and Kitchen Finks.
Some people, like Stephen Mann, went as low as six removal spells maindeck, recognizing that against an army of 1/1 fliers, spot removal isn’t going to get
it done. Clearly those shifts were warranted, but they were inbred and allowed decks like Splinter Twin and Burn to penetrate the Top 8.
There are many reasons why someone would play the Level 0 deck, especially in a format like Modern, despite having a target on their head. For starters,
B/G has Thoughtseize, Abrupt Decay, and Tarmogoyf. That’s arguably the best disruption, best removal, and best threat in the entire format. As Willy Edel
said, “Abzan has the best card pool out of all the decks in the format.”
Not only does Abzan have an embarrassment of riches, but it seemingly has all the answers. You’re playing against a weird permanent? Decay it. You’re
playing against a weird combo deck? Thoughtseize your combo piece. You have answers for anything, whether it’s in play or in their hand, and that makes you
feel like you can take on any deck in the format and still have a reasonable shot at winning.
Burn, Affinity, and Tron are bad matchups, but you can tune your deck to beat them, just not all at the same time.
Abzan VS Jund, The Classic Dilemma
As I mentioned, SMann played six removal spells. Not a single one of them killed Olivia Voldaren.
On one hand, I’m shocked that Jund didn’t see more play than it did, especially because Olivia is typically great against Lingering Souls. On the other
hand, Siege Rhino doesn’t give you a ton of time to mess around. It wouldn’t surprise me if SMann was actually able to beat Olivia despite never being able
to remove it from play.
Sometimes the best way to beat a hate card is to not face it. Other times, the answer is as simple as “kill them before it matters.”
Most people played Abzan because, overall, it’s the better deck. Siege Rhino, Path to Exile, Timely Reinforcements, Lingering Souls, and Stony Silence are
all incredibly important cards in Modern, and Jund doesn’t have any great analogues. Perhaps Abzan, despite not having a trump like Olivia, makes up for it
by being so much better everywhere else.
Andrew Boswell finished second at Grand Prix Boston-Worcester last year with Jund in a field full of Abzan, and I can’t imagine it will be the last time
someone makes that type of metagame call. Eventually the format will circle around and Jund will be great again, if it hasn’t already.
Dark Confidant Sucks
None of the Top 8 decklists contained Dark Confidant, and most of the games were over quickly. Threat density is more important than attempting to stick a
painful card advantage engine. The Top 8 was littered with decks where you need specific answers for them, and it’s much better to play a more consistent
threat.
Burn, Affinity, and Twin are also matchups where you don’t appreciate Dark Confidant punching you in the mouth over and over again. It’s a sad day where
I’m recommending you cut grindy black cards for big green monsters, but here we are.
“#&^@ ‘Em, SKULLCRACK!”
Don’t know what to play in Modern, but you know Abzan is going to be the biggest deck? Some people lean toward Tron, some toward Affinity, and some toward
Blood Moon. Perhaps I could interest you in a Goblin Guide?
Abzan’s prevalence opened the door for Burn to make a real showing, and few people made a conscious effort to beat it. Two copies of Burn made it into the
elimination rounds, which is nearly unheard of for a Pro Tour. A couple weeks ago, I mentioned how I respect the decks that nobody else expects, and I
think more people should do the same. Burn’s presence was somewhat predictable.
If I play Jund or Abzan at Grand Prix Vancouver, you can bet your ass I’ll be playing something like Timely Reinforcements or Feed the Clan in my
sideboard. With all the crazy hate in Modern, if you lose to Burn, it’s probably your own fault.
Amulet Bloom Might Be A Real Deck
I’ve been a longtime supporter of the Amulet Bloom deck. Perhaps you remember this article. Basically no one took me seriously, and that’s okay. But when
two teammates end up playing for Top 8 with the same deck, you have to take it seriously. To do otherwise would be irresponsible.
People tend to hate variance and actively shy away from decks with a lot of it, but you can’t really argue against a deck this powerful.
Creatures (7)
Lands (27)
Spells (26)
I don’t think this is the best list of this deck, but it might have been the best list for the Pro Tour. Their deck choice and sideboard reflect a clear
grasp of what the metagame would look like. Despite some aggressive criticism, Sam Black and Justin Cohen may have silenced the haters with their deep runs
in the Pro Tour.
This deck is super wacky and has been absolutely killing it lately. It will get more popular.
Splinter Twin is a Real Deck
Temur Twin. Tasigur Twin. U/R Twin. Humble Twin???
Each of these operates on a different axis and each requires different cards to fight against them. Which is the best version? It’s not clear, although the
two copies of the more classic U/R Twin in the Top 8 are probably going to go a long way toward influencing what version is the most popular.
Part of the issue is that it’s difficult to figure out what their gameplan is. By the time you figure it out, it might be too late. After sideboard, they
have even more options. Splinter Twin owns the information advantage, but it’s all a matter of whether or not they can leverage that.
Twin won the first Modern Pro Tour. It won the most recent Modern Pro Tour. It is arguably the most solid deck in the entire format. Perhaps it’s a deck
that I should try learning again.
When Did Restoration Angel Get Banned?
I hardly saw anyone with Jeskai Control. A scant eleven people played it, while a lowly three went with straight U/W Control. Either the allure of playing
with Siege Rhino got people off of Jeskai, or the Jeskai players couldn’t figure out a way to beat Siege Rhino. Is Siege Rhino just that good? Judging from
the metagame breakdown, it looks like people seem to think so.
That’s okay though. Now that the metagame is relatively set, we should be able to build a reasonable control deck.
I’ve Got A Disease
Last week
, I mentioned how Infect was poised for a great performance at the Pro Tour. While The Pantheon seemed to think so as well, none of them cracked the Top 8,
although several of them did well in Constructed. I think this one may remain a sleeper pick.
You might know that a deck exists and that a lot of people think it’s good enough to play at a Pro Tour, but does that mean that people will actually play
it? It is something that’s worth worrying about? Oftentimes, the thing worth worrying about is the thing that didn’t win last week.
Modern Pro Tours Are Unique
Abzan was 28% of the field. Over a hundred people decided that a Level 0 strategy was the right way to go for them. Granted, some of them played a little
bit of spice, such as CFB’s Noble Hierarchs, but most of the lists looked like they were straight from the Magic Online results.
Modern Pro Tours are often known formats, even after a B&R announcement. Some decks don’t exist, some decks get better, and some decks get worse, but
rarely does a brand new archetype pop up. Because of that, people are more likely to play it safe rather than put their faith in some relatively untested
brew.
Standard Pro Tours are either a brand new format or after a new set has been released, which will always have a bigger impact on Standard than on Modern.
Because those formats are fresher, there is more incentive to brew or try to “break it.” With Modern, there’s nothing wrong with sticking to the ole tried
and true. However, when the field agrees to play it safe and a new B&R announcement causes the format to shift, there will always be a couple of people
playing combo decks you didn’t prepare for.
And those guys are going to meet in the finals.
Where Do We Go From Here?
I’m playing in Grand Prix Vancouver, and I thought I’d have more information after the Pro Tour than I did before, but apparently that’s not the case. It
feels impossible to guess what direction people will go, but I assume that the majority of players would have had their deck locked in before the Pro Tour
anyway.
I want to play something solid that has game against most things. I’m willing to write off the Tron matchup at this point, and Affinity isn’t a large
concern either.
I guess I’ll be fetching Overgrown Tombs like everybody else.