In the world of politics, the phrase “lame duck” refers to a politician who is still in power despite having already been voted out of office. This happens more often than you’d think, with several months usually passing between an election and the official transfer of power. In fact, we have entire lame duck sessions of Congress in the USA, where hundreds of outgoing representatives just sort of kick back and avoid the really hard work until the new crop of lawmakers arrive.
In Magic, I often refer to the Standard season right before set rotation as a lame duck format. Whatever happens during the dog days of summer rarely matters all that much, and most casually competitive players are just waiting until September to see what the new environment will look like. If you’re a dedicated grinder, you remember exactly how good the Sorin, Imperious Bloodlord decks were this summer. But for your more casual friends, they might have flown under the radar entirely.
Financially, lame duck formats can be really frustrating. From a speculation perspective, there’s very little you can do but wait until things start to matter again. Even though Sorin was incredibly powerful this summer, his price tag never really seemed to move all that much. The casually competitive crowd that drives the marketplace wants no part of decks that won’t be legal to play in a month, so prices tend to remain stagnant – sometimes for weeks on end.
Lame duck formats are even worse for players on a budget. It’s one thing to drop several hundred dollars on a Tier 1 deck that you hope will be good for the next few months, but it’s really hard to justify buying into a deck that has a clear and obvious expiration date. And if that deck is oppressively powerful and super-annoying to play against? Even worse. Either you have to pay up for a deck that’ll only be good for a couple of weeks, or you have to play something sub-par. It’s a choice that feels bad no matter what.
These days, lame duck formats pop up every few months – not just in Standard, but in Modern, too. These smaller lame ducks have nothing to do with set rotation but are instead caused by oppressive decks that are almost certainly about to get hit with the ol’ banhammer. We knew that Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis would not be long for Modern for almost a month before the card was actually banned, but we just had to sit around and wait until B&R Announcement Day for Wizards of the Coast to take action.
I think you can guess why I’m writing about this today. Between the utter dominance of Bant Golos over the past week and the fact that WotC has officially moved up the next B&R announcement from November 18th to October 21st, a lot of people have connected the dots and predicted that something big (Field of the Dead, most likely) will be banned in Standard later this month. I tend to agree with them.
So…what do we do for the next two weeks? Or the next time we’re facing what looks like a guaranteed banning that’ll shake up the format in a pretty major way? Considering how often this seems to happen nowadays, I figured it was worth an extended discussion.
Step 1: Assess the Threat
In my experience, most Magic players tend to overrate the chance of any particular card being banned or unbanned. There’s a lot of hype leading up to almost every B&R announcement, but the historical record paints a pretty conservative picture of WotC’s B&R decisions.
WotC only took action on Modern once a year in 2014, 2015, 2017, and 2018. They took action twice in 2016. There were far more “no changes” announcements than meaningful bannings, even when the community was pretty sure that something cool was about to happen. Cards like Bloodbraid Elf and Stoneforge Mystic spiked in price more than half-a-dozen times each due to pre-B&R hype before they were finally set free.
There is some evidence that times might finally be changing. WotC has taken action on Modern three different times so far in 2019, banning Krark-Clan Ironworks in January, Bridge from Below in July, and both Hogaak and Faithless Looting in August. It’s possible that WotC is finally taking a more hands-on approach to the Modern B&R list, and that quarterly bannings and unbannings are going to be a new feature of eternal play.
Or, perhaps, these frequent Modern bannings are simply a result of Modern Horizons being too powerful and destabilizing for its own good. After all, the Bridge from Below banning was an attempt to solve the Hogaak problem without axing a card from WotC’s latest set, and it’s impossible to say whether Faithless Looting would have still been banned this year if Modern Horizons hadn’t been released. Modern stewardship clearly needed a heavier hand in the wake of that set, and it’s unclear whether a proper balance has actually been found. More action may still need to be taken.
You can point to a similar pattern of action in Standard, albeit with an even more conservative baseline. There were no Standard bannings at all in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2019 (save the Nexus of Fate banning in Arena Best-of-One). Between January of 2017 and January of 2018, however, there were four different B&R announcements affecting Standard. That’s a pretty stark contrast to the rest of the history of the format.
Based on these trends, it seems pretty clear that the ideal pattern for WotC involves a once-per-year “shake it up” banning or unbanning in Modern and no B&R action at all in Standard. Assuming nothing goes terribly wrong, this is what they’re likely to do. Remember: WotC didn’t ban Nexus of Fate outside best-of-one, never touched Goblin Chainwhirler, and left both Teferis alone. Most of the cards we think of as having warped Standard for months or years on end were never banned. Standard bannings are still quite rare.
On the other hand, once WotC does commit to banning cards, they seem unafraid to continue meddling until the format is in a good place. The threshold for future bannings in a format seems lower than the first banning, which makes a certain amount of sense from a marketing perspective. After all, if you already have to inform new players about bannings in your flagship format, you might as well make sure that the format is both diverse and fun.
I bring this up because it’s an important consideration in assessing the likelihood of a ban. Extenuating circumstances are really important here. If your rationale for expecting a ban is just “This deck is very good right now,” you’re setting yourself up for disappointment.
On the other hand, it is incredibly likely that our current situation will end with at least one card getting banned on October 21st. Consider the following:
- WotC moved up their next B&R date right after receiving the decklists for Mythic Championship V. There’s another Mythic Championship two weeks after that, with the B&R announcement now sandwiched in between. Both of these events are Standard Constructed. If WotC wasn’t at least seriously considering a Standard ban, they wouldn’t have made this swap.
- Bant Golos is close to a nightmare scenario for WotC. Not only is the deck incredibly powerful right now, but it uses a land as its primary combo piece. With very few ways to deal with problematic lands in the current Standard environment, fighting back against the deck is quite difficult. Many otherwise-powerful decks are completely shut out of the format right now because they can’t beat Field of the Dead, which bodes poorly for sales of WotC’s shiny new set.
- There is no help on the way. The next Standard expansion releases on January 24th, 2020, which is almost four months from now.
- I’m not convinced that WotC feels good about Modern in the post-Horizons world yet. We’ve already had three major Modern B&R announcements this year, so it’s clear that we’re still in a high-water period for Modern intervention. Urza decks are everywhere in Modern right now, and Urza Outcome seems like the exact sort of deck that WotC doesn’t want to exist in Modern. It’s quite possible that something will get banned in that format, too.
The threat of something being banned in two weeks seems quite high to me, but be careful that you don’t fall into this trap every time a B&R announcement comes around. Just because a bunch of people on Twitter and Reddit feel like “X format would be so much better if they’d just ban !” doesn’t mean that a banning is imminent. Ignore those people. Instead, pay attention to the signals that WotC is sending and act accordingly.
Step 2: Sell Cards from the Offending Deck (If Possible)
This step is easier said than done.
For starters, some players are already priced into traveling to events where the soon-to-be-banned deck is still the absolute right call. If you were at SCG Indianapolis over the weekend and you wanted to play in the Standard Classic, you had to at least think about sleeving up Bant Golos. Ditto for all the Modern events in the weeks leading up to the Hogaak banning. Being able to shuffle up a copy of the best deck in the format at the start of those events has value.
Also, you’re not likely to find a lot of eager buyers for cards that are about to get banned. Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis was selling for just $5 prior to being banned, despite the fact that it would have been a $30+ card if banning was off the table. Selling at $5 was still the right move (Hogaak is now just $2), but could you have actually found a buyer for that card anywhere near retail in the days leading up to that announcement? I doubt it.
Things are a little easier this time around. Field of the Dead has a current retail cost of $8, and it’s still on the Star City Games buylist. Golos, Tireless Pilgrim is $7 and is also still on the buylist. If you truly believe that this deck is going to get banned out of the format, you can still cash in with relative ease.
The bigger question this time around is what to do with the non-combo cards in Bant Golos. It’s easy to say that Field of the Dead will crash if it’s banned, but what about Hydroid Krasis; Realm-Cloaked Giant; Once Upon a Time; Teferi, Time Raveler; Oko, Thief of Crowns; and Kenrith, the Returned King? Bant Golos has its fair share of expensive staples, and we’re going to see some pretty big shifts in the market if Field of the Dead and/or Golos gets the axe.
Personally, I’m not going to worry too much about cards that have already shown their strength in several other decks. Teferi, Oko, Hydroid Krasis, Once Upon a Time, and even Realm-Cloaked Giant have proven themselves as format staples. It’s possible that one or more of these cards will fall out of favor temporarily, but there’s always risk when you buy into expensive Standard cards. At a certain point, you just have to be okay with a certain amount of risk.
Cards like Kenrith, the Returned King worry me more. It might be hard for Kenrith to find a top-tier home outside of Golos, so there’s little reason for it to remain a $15 card. Even though Kenrith isn’t in any risk of getting banned itself, I’m definitely selling at current retail.
It’s even harder to think about what to sell in Modern. Paradoxical Outcome might be at risk, but are the odds high enough to justify selling a card that is otherwise going to be climbing past the $10 mark? What about Urza himself? Or Mox Opal, which doesn’t even see play in all the Urza decks? It’s not as clear-cut as it was with Hogaak, where there was a clear villain that needed a very long time-out.
Plus, you don’t want to end up bailing on a deck too early. It’s quite possible that WotC doesn’t want to take any further action in Modern right now, and Urza decks will get another year or more to rule the roost. If you play a lot of Modern, buying back into a bunch of cards that you just panic-sold is a really terrible feeling.
This is why I suggest that we all start with Step 1 and try to properly assess the threat of a banning. The more certain you are that something is going to happen, the more aggressive you should be in selling cards prior to the announcement. In the case of Standard, I feel pretty confident right now. In the case of Modern, I’m a lot more uncertain.
Step 3: Identify the Deck Most Likely to Benefit from the Ban
This step is also harder than it looks.
First, any format awaiting a major banning is likely going to be pretty warped around the offending deck. The second-best deck in a format with Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis isn’t necessarily the second-most-powerful deck in vacuum; it’s simply the deck with the best odds of taking down Hogaak. Ditto for the current Standard and Bant Golos. Once Field of the Dead is gone, a variety of decks that were very powerful but unable to beat an active Field are going to have a chance to break out, while the best anti-Golos decks might not actually be all that good going forward.
Second, if WotC does decide to ban a card, they sometimes choose to clear the decks entirely. It was pretty clear that the Faithless Looting decks would take over once Hogaak was banned this summer, so WotC decided to axe both cards at the same time. They did the same thing in Standard in 2017 and 2018, banning Reflector Mage alongside Emrakul, the Promised End and Smuggler’s Copter and Rampaging Ferocidon alongside Attune with Aether, Rogue Refiner, and Ramunap Ruins. In both cases, the top two decks in the format were severely hampered alongside cards that hadn’t looked even remotely broken yet.
If WotC chooses to clear the decks on the current Standard metagame, Fires of Invention might get banned alongside Golos, Tireless Pilgrim and Field of the Dead. It seems kind of absurd to say that a brand-new combo card that hasn’t fully proven itself is at risk of a banning, but we could have said the same thing about Reflector Mage and Rampaging Ferocidon a few years ago. When you’re predicting a Standard banning, you have to think about what WotC wants the format to be like.
One thing that seems doubtful to me: WotC banning one of its oppressive three-mana planeswalkers like Oko, Thief of Crowns or Teferi, Time Raveler. Wizards of the Coast is going to do everything they can to ensure that people can play with their chase cards, and Oko is currently the face of Throne of Eldraine. It’s not out of the realm of possibility – Jace, the Mind Sculptor was once banned in Standard – but it’s almost certainly a last resort.
To that end, I feel like Matt Nass’s Simic Midrange is a pretty safe bet to make it through the bannings with flying colors. This deck should still be powerful in a post-Golos metagame, and decks that simply interact with good creatures and planeswalkers seem fairly immune to WotC meddling.
I also feel good about
Both decks lean on maindeck Questing Beast, which should see an uptick in both price and demand after Field of the Dead is banned. I also predict better days for cards like Rankle, Master of Pranks; Once Upon a Time; Murderous Rider; and Gilded Goose.
Beyond that is a lot of uncertainty. If you agree with me that Teferi and Oko are unlikely to get banned, then the best place to start brewing in post-Golos Standard probably begins with the best Teferi and Oko decks. At the very least, I wouldn’t sell any of my Bant staples just yet.
This Week’s Trends
Financially, the most interesting news of the week is the announcement of the Mystery Booster. More will be revealed at MagicFest Richmond next month, but it seems worth speculating on the possibilities.
First of all, it’s unclear whether Mystery Boosters will ever be available in stores. Right now, all we know is that there will be Mystery Booster events at conventions like MagicFest Richmond and PAX Unplugged. It’s possible that Mystery Boosters will be coming to a store near you, but they might also be convention-exclusive products that encourage folks to travel and play in high-profile MagicFest Sealed events.
We also know, based on pricing the Mystery Booster event at MagicFest Richmond, that this is likely a premium product. That means that my initial prediction of Mystery Boosters as a blind box of Standard-legal boosters with a few Masters packs thrown in is unlikely to be true. People aren’t going to pay premium prices for that.
So. What are Mystery Boosters? I see three possibilities:
1) They are essentially a new Masters set, possibly with a far larger card pool, designed for “Chaos Draft”-style convention play while also getting more copies of reprint-needy cards into the world.
2) They are blind boosters of older sets, perhaps covering the entire Modern card pool. We know that there aren’t any Reserved List cards in here, but it’s possible that one might be a pack of Future Sight, another is a pack of Mirrodin, etc.
3) Some kind of new casual set with brand-new cards, like Conspiracy or Battlebond. I highly doubt that WotC would design a whole bunch of new cards, only to gate them behind MagicFests and deny them a hype-driven global release, but I suppose it’s technically possible.
At this point, there’s no real action that you should be taking. It’s likely that this is going to lead to a bunch of reprints, but they won’t affect the market very much unless the set gets a wide release. Having a very large card pool, a high price tag, and very low distribution is a great way for WotC to reprint a bunch of cards without just blowing through all of their reprint equity. Regardless, we’ll talk more once we know more.
Also announced this week: five new unique cards from this year’s Game Night product. Here’s how last year’s Game Night cards are faring:
- Rot Hulk – $6
- Militant Angel – $4
- Inspired Sphinx – $4
- Goblin Goliath – $4
- Avatar of Growth – $4
Yawn. Rot Hulk is the only interesting card on this list, and even that one is just $6. My gut reaction after seeing that was to simply ignore the Game Night 2 promos, but most of them are actually pretty good in Commander. Earthshaker Giant does a pretty good Craterhoof Behemoth impression; Fiendish Duo is going to slot into every Torbran, Thane of Red Fell deck; and Calculating Lich is a great Golgari Tokens card. The white and blue legends aren’t half-bad, either.
I wouldn’t be surprised if these cards show up in the supplemental slot in the next set’s Collector Booster, so I’m not going to buy in until those are announced. If they’re in those boosters, supply should be more than high enough to satiate demand for years to come. If they fall through the cracks, however, I’d suggest buying in at some point this winter. These cards could easily end up in the $15-$20 range at some point if the supply is limited to Game Night 2.
Moving on to Modern, the biggest winner of the week was Savor the Moment, a three-mana Time Warp variant from Shadowmoor. The reason for this? Luis Scott-Vargas went 5-0 in a Modern League with a Time Warp combo deck, and that’s the perfect storm of personality and content. Everybody loves Time Warps, everybody loves Luis’s brews, and everybody loves cool new ways to attack Modern. As a result, it’s getting pretty hard to find Savor the Moment for less than $25. I don’t expect a ton of other spikes from this deck, but it’s certainly possible that Time Warp itself will see an increase in price. It’s a four-of in the deck, and it hasn’t gotten a proper reprint in a while. I’d at least start trading for these at current retail.