Last fall, I was inundated by readers asking me a question that I couldn’t really answer: what’s worth more, a set foil or a prerelease promo?
This had been an easy question to answer in the past. In the years before Return to Ravnica, everyone who attended a prerelease received the same promo foil. It was generally worth less than its normal counterpart, nevermind the set foil. For example, a prerelease copy of Emrakul, the Aeons Torn sells for $34.99, the non-foil from Rise of the Eldrazi goes for $36.49, and the set foil is a whopping $149.99. The prerelease foil for Wurmcoil Engine is now worth slightly more than the set version – $22.99 versus $19.49 – but the inverse was true for most of the card’s time in Standard. And the set foil version of Wurmcoil, retailing for $39.99, is still worth almost twice as much as either of the other two copies.
Things changed in the fall of 2012 when Wizards of the Coast released prerelease boxes in celebration of Return to Ravnica’s five guilds. For the first time ever, each prerelease event gave out a different promo depending on which faction you selected.
While the change was well-received at first, it hit a snag when large groups of players began selecting their faction based almost entirely on the playability of the promo. I played nearly all of my matches against white decks at the Journey Into Nyx prerelease because Dawnbreaker Charioteers was significantly more powerful than any of the other promos.
Sensing this displeasure, Wizards of the Coast switched tactics again. Starting with Khans of Tarkir, a total of forty prerelease cards were released for each set – eight per faction. This allowed players to pick the color combination they wanted to play without incentivizing them to pick a particular direction based solely on the overpowered promo lurking inside their box.
While people seemed to embrace this change, Wizards of the Coast changed it up yet again this year, turning away from seeded packs (at least for now) beginning with Battle for Zendikar. Instead of going back to a single promo per event, though, WotC sprinted in the other direction. Starting this fall, your prerelease card can now be any rare or mythic rare in the entire set. We’ve gone from one prerelease card in 2011 to five in 2012 to forty in 2014 to 68 (!) in 2015.
So – what’s the better buy, a set foil or a prerelease card? Has the answer to this question changed over time? Does it depend on the value of the card or which formats it’s used in? We’re going to find out this week, starting with a brief journey back to the heady days of 2008 and the inception of Shards block.
The Single Promo Mythic Rare Era: October 2008 – July 2011 (& April 2013)
Shards of Alara was the first set to contain mythic rares, and it also kicked off a three-year period where mythics were given out as prerelease promos. This distribution method was briefly revived in 2013 for Dragon’s Maze, so I included Maze’s End here as well.
Here’s the complete list, arranged by date:
- Promo: $8.99
- Set: $11.49
- Set foil: $34.99
- Promo: $0.99
- Set: $1.49
- Set foil: $4.99
- Promo: $11.99
- Set: $15.39
- Set foil: $27.99
- Promo: $3.99
- Set: $5.39
- Set foil: $9.99
- Promo: $1.99
- Set: $1.49
- Set foil: $4.99
- Promo: $0.99
- Set: $1.49
- Set foil: $2.99
- Promo: $34.99
- Set: $36.49
- Set foil: $149.99
- Promo: $2.99
- Set: $2.39
- Set foil: $6.99
- Promo: $22.99
- Set: $19.49
- Set foil: $39.99
- Promo: $1.99
- Set: $2.59
- Set foil: $7.99
- Promo: $6.99
- Set: $9.19
- Set foil: $15.99
- Promo: $8.99
- Set: $12.39
- Set foil: $22.99
- Promo: $0.99
- Set: $1.49
- Set foil: $2.99
Maze’s End
- Promo: $0.49
- Set: $1.49
- Set foil: $3.99
Of the fourteen cards on this list, there are only three instances where the promo is worth more than the set version: Rampaging Baloths, Sun Titan, and Wurmcoil Engine. In all three cases, the difference is negligible and probably comes down to slight preferences in art.
Overall, the picture is pretty clear.
- Total value of promos: $109.36
- Total value of set cards: $122.26 (12% more than promos)
- Total value of set foils: $336.86 (308% more than promos)
The Single Card Rare Era: September 2011 – July 2012 & July 2013
Beginning with Innistrad, Wizards of the Coast switched from giving out mythic rares to giving out normal rares. This was widely regarded as a bad move. Consider the following cards:
- Promo: $1.49
- Set: $1.19
- Set foil: $2.99
- Promo: $0.49
- Set: $0.65
- Set foil: $1.99
Bulk Rare (x3)
- Promo: $0.49
- Set: $0.49
- Set foil: $1.99
Mayor of Avabruck and Megantic Sliver are only cards even worth mentioning here – the others are Ravenous Demon, Moonsilver Spear, and Xathrid Gorgon. (In order to prevent pages of redundant information, I’m going to shortcut the bulk rares from here on out.)
At any rate, there isn’t much information here worth gleaning. The promos are worth a little more than the set versions, but that has more to do with the small (and lousy) sample size than any real trend. The promo version of Mayor of Avabruck is probably a little more expensive than the normal version because double-sided foils have some novelty value. This is the easiest one to get that’s still reasonable to cast in a game of casual Magic. Otherwise, this list conforms pretty closely to what was happening during the mythic rare era.
- Total value of promos: $3.45
- Total value of set cards: $3.31 (10% less than promos)
- Total value of set foils: $10.95 (317% more than promos)
The Five-Card Promo Era: September 2012 – July 2014
The five-card promo era lasted for six sets: Return to Ravnica, Gatecrash, Theros, Born of the Gods, Journey into Nyx, and Magic 2015; Dragon’s Maze and Magic 2014 were within this time period, but not subject to this promo system.
During that time, exactly zero top-tier rares were given out as prerelease cards. In fact, other than Doomwake Giant, there wasn’t a single Constructed-playable prerelease card released at all. Let’s check the tape and see what we’re dealing with:
- Promo: $1.49
- Set: $0.55
- Set foil: $1.99
- Promo: $0.99
- Set: $0.49
- Set foil: $1.99
- Promo: $2.99
- Set: $2.75
- Set foil: $2.99
- Promo: $1.99
- Set: $0.49
- Set foil: $1.99
- Promo: $1.99
- Set: $0.49
- Set foil: $1.99
Heroes’ Bane
- Promo: $0.75
- Set: $0.65
- Set foil: $1.99
- Promo: $0.75
- Set: $0.49
- Set foil: $1.99
- Promo: $0.99
- Set: $0.79
- Set foil: $1.99
Bulk Rare (x22)
- Promo: $0.49
- Set: $0.49
- Set foil: $1.99
Yuck! In two years, the best prerelease card was Consuming Aberration. While most prerelease promos in the mythic rare era were designed to showcase a powerful new mechanic or cycle (Emrakul! Sun Titan! Hero of Bladehold!), these cards were clearly selected to act as powerful Limited bombs that had little to no value in competitive formats. R&D didn’t want players to feel like one of the good rares or mythics they opened in a booster pack were being devalued because of mass-distribution at the prerelease.
When you remove the bulk rares from the equation, though, an interesting trend emerges:
- Total value of promos (discounting bulk): $12.43
- Total value of set cards (discounting bulk): $7.19 (42% less than promos)
- Total value of set foils: $18.91 (152% more than promos)
Unlike in the mythic-era, the promos from RTR and Theros Blocks are worth more than the set card in all eight cases. We’ve also cut the difference between the overall promo value and overall set foil value in half. Even though all of these cards are low value near-bulk casual rares, you can’t ignore the fact that the reduction in overall supply of each card (relative to previous prereleases, at least) significantly increased the demand for these cards relative to their set and set foil counterparts.
The Forty-Card Promo Era: September 2014 – July 2015
Starting with Khans of Tarkir, each prerelease card is now eight times rarer than its Theros or Return to Ravnica Block counterpart. Not counting any increase in the size of the print run, each of these cards is forty times scarcer than Mayor of Avabruck or Megantic Sliver.
Despite that, several high-profile websites began selling Khans of Tarkir prerelease cards at a fraction of the cost of the non-foil set version. This problem was corrected in a matter of hours as word spread on social media and these sites were bought out. The pendulum then quickly flipped the other way, with prerelease foils outpacing set foils by 10-20% on eBay and other individual seller sites.
Why didn’t Khans-era prerelease foil prices shoot up to 100-200% of set foil values thanks to their significantly-increased rarity? Part of it is because Wizards of the Coast also abandoned their practice of having all prerelease cards feature alternate art starting with Khans of Tarkir. In fact, starting with Khans, the only difference between a prelease foil and a set foil is the date stamp. That took the pressure off the market a little bit, because many collectors only really cared about getting the alternate art variations.
I want to talk about how this major change has affected card prices over the past year, but let me say first that there is a whole lot of data here –a hundred and fifty cards spread out over four sets. Instead of laying everything out one card at a time like I did earlier, I’m going to separate them into three distinct categories. I’m also going to organize them by retail price (descending) instead of by release date:
Category #1: The Prerelease Promo Is More Valuable Than The Set Foil
- Promo: $34.99
- Set: $10.89
- Set foil: $29.99
- Promo: $17.99
- Set: $5.95
- Set foil: $14.99
- Promo: $15.99
- Set: $7.55
- Set foil: $14.99
- Promo: $12.99
- Set: $6.39
- Set foil: $11.99
- Promo: $9.99
- Set: $4.35
- Set foil: $8.99
- Promo: $7.99
- Set: $1.39
- Set foil: $6.99
- Promo: $6.99
- Set: $1.49
- Set foil: $4.99
- Promo: $5.99
- Set: $2.99
- Set foil: $4.99
Surrak Dragonclaw; Stratus Dancer
- Promo: $4.99
- Set: $1.49
- Set foil: $3.99
- Promo: $4.99
- Set: $0.85
- Set foil: $2.99
Myth Realized; Surrak, the Hunt Caller
- Promo: $4.99
- Set: $0.59
- Set foil: $3.99
- Promo: $4.99
- Set: $0.49
- Set foil: $2.99
- Promo: $3.99
- Set: $2.29
- Set foil: $2.49
Mardu Strike Leader; Relic Seeker; Gaea’s Revenge
- Promo: $3.99
- Set: $0.99
- Set foil: $2.99
Jeskai Ascendancy; Zurgo Helmsmasher
- Promo: $3.99
- Set: $1.49
- Set foil: $2.99
Deflecting Palm; Crackling Doom
- Promo: $3.99
- Set: $0.79
- Set foil: $2.99
Alesha, Who Smiles At Death; Dromoka the Eternal; Yasova Dragonclaw; Atarka, World Render; Silumgar’s Command; Mizzium Meddler
- Promo: $3.99
- Set: $0.49
- Set foil: $2.99
Butcher of the Horde; Shu Yun, the Silent Tempest; Archfiend of Depravity
- Promo: $3.99
- Set: $0.49
- Set foil: $1.99
Villainous Wealth; Flamewake Phoenix; Crater’s Claws; Ojutai, Soul of Winter; Mastery of the Unseen; Arashin Foremost; Pristine Skywise; Living Lore; Necromaster Dragon; Deathbringer Regent; Silumgar Assassin; Profaner of the Dead; Damnable Pact; Boltwing Marauder; Harbinger of the Hunt; Chandra’s Ignition; Nissa’s Revelation
- Promo: $2.99
- Set: $0.49
- Set foil: $1.99
48 of the 150 cards fall into category #1, so about a third of the promos from the past year are worth more than their respective set foils. That tells us that there’s no real consistency when it comes to pricing these things – while a few trends do emerge, many of the prices feel like they were chosen holistically, especially with the lower-value foils. It wouldn’t surprise me to see more cards on this list in six months. It also wouldn’t surprise me if this list was half as empty by the end of December. By and large, the community hasn’t made up their mind on the prerelease card versus set foil issue yet.
That said, there are some major trends emerging here. This list doesn’t contain that many Tier One Standard staples or expensive Eternal cards, for example. Languish is on here, but most of the rest of these cards are aimed at the Commander crowd. In fact, seventeen of the forty-eight are legendary creatures. Commander players like having the prerelease promos as their Commanders.
Also on this list: most of the secondary and tertiary Dragons, a bunch of all-potential rares that haven’t seen much competitive play but still have an outside shot, and role-players in some casual/tier-three (but highly linear) Standard decks. Again, this fits my theory that causal and kitchen table players prefer the prerelease foil to the set foil.
What other trend do most of these cards have in common? Their foil multiplier is above average. If a foil copy of a card is going to be worth significantly more than a non-foil, especially if the overall value is still rather low (a $0.99 Commander with a $3.99 foil, say), then the prerelease card is likely to be slightly more desirable than the set foil.
Here’s the breakdown for this section only:
- Total value of promos: $261.52
- Total value of set cards: $69.06 (74% less than promos, 65% less than set foils)
- Total value of set foils: $197.03 (25% less than promos)
Category #2: The Prerelease Promo And The Set Foil Have The Same Price
Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy
- Promo: $59.99
- Set: $37.99
- Set foil: $59.99
- Promo: $14.99
- Set: $9.09
- Set foil: $14.99
- Promo: $12.99
- Set: $2.49
- Set foil: $12.99
- Promo: $12.99
- Set: $6.25
- Set foil: $12.99
Atarka’s Command
- Promo: $11.99
- Set: $5.89
- Set foil: $11.99
Dromoka’s Command
- Promo: $11.99
- Set: $3.19
- Set foil: $11.99
- Promo: $11.99
- Set: $2.69
- Set foil: $11.99
- Promo: $9.99
- Set: $4.75
- Set foil: $9.99
- Promo: $9.99
- Set: $3.75
- Set foil: $9.99
- Promo: $9.99
- Set: $0.99
- Set foil: $9.99
- Promo: $8.99
- Set: $5.99
- Set foil: $8.99
- Promo: $7.99
- Set: $1.49
- Set foil: $7.99
- Promo: $6.99
- Set: $1.29
- Set foil: $6.99
- Promo: $5.99
- Set: $1.69
- Set foil: $5.99
- Promo: $4.99
- Set: $3.59
- Set foil: $4.99
Ojutai’s Command
- Promo: $4.99
- Set: 2.09
- Set foil: $4.99
Rally the Ancestors; Pia and Kiran Nalaar
- Promo: $4.99
- Set: $1.65
- Set foil: $4.99
- Promo: $3.99
- Set: $2.09
- Set foil: $3.99
- Promo: $3.99
- Set: $2.19
- Set foil: $3.99
- Promo: $3.99
- Set: $1.99
- Set foil: $3.99
Shaman of the Great Hunt; Priest of the Blood Rite
- Promo: $3.99
- Set: $1.49
- Set foil: $3.99
Icefall Regent; Scab-Clan Berserker
- Promo: $3.99
- Set: $1.25
- Set foil: $3.99
Avatar of the Resolute; Talent of the Telepath; Gilt-Leaf Winnower
- Promo: $3.99
- Set: $0.99
- Set foil: $3.99
- Promo: $2.99
- Set: $1.99
- Set foil: $2.99
- Promo: $2.99
- Set: $1.49
- Set foil: $2.99
- Promo: $2.99
- Set: $1.09
- Set foil: $2.99
Sunscorch Regent; Graveblade Marauder; Outland Colossus
- Promo: $2.99
- Set: $0.49
- Set foil: $2.99
Abzan Ascendancy; High Sentinels of Arashin; Mardu Ascendancy; Temur Ascendancy; Trail of Mystery; Daghatar the Adamant; Dragonscale General; Jeskai Infiltrator; Soulflayer; Supplant Form;Flamerush Rider; Arcbond; Shamanic Revelation; Wildcall; Arashin Sovereign; Blessed Reincarnation; Ire Shaman; Pitiless Horde; Blood-Chin Fanatic; Foe-Razer Regent; Volcanic Vision; Hixus, Prison Warden; Gideon’s Phalanx; Kytheon’s Irregulars; Alhammarret, High Arbiter; Soulblade Djinn; Willbreaker; Kothophed, Soul Hoarder; Embermaw Hellion; Honored Hierarch
- Promo: $1.99
- Set: $0.49
- Set foil: $1.99
There are sixty-four cards in this section, making it the largest of the three categories by a significant margin. Almost half of those cards are bulk rares – $0.49 cards with promo and set foil copies both available for $1.99 retail. While the bulk rares in the previous section were mostly splashy Commander cards and Dragons, these rares are a little dodgier. While some of the best bulk in Khans (we’ll see the rest of them a bit later) are here, a lot of the bottom-of-the-barrel cards from Dragons of Tarkir and Magic Origins are stuck here in the neutral zone.
Glancing up the list, we can see a lot of first- and second-tier Standard staples alongside a couple of cards that see a reasonable amount of play in both Standard and Modern. There are also some underplayed Standard mythics – cards like Shaman of the Great Hunt that still have promise but never really found a home.
For the most part, though, the value of these foils are being affected by the Standard market and not the casual crowd. Even beloved casual cards like Evolutionary Leap and Sidisi, Undead Vizier are interesting enough to competitive players that Commander playability isn’t really factoring into the prices of the foils yet. The make-up of this list tells me that most Standard players don’t really care about which versions of the cards they acquire. Set foil or prerelease card, they’re just happy with something shiny in their decks.
Here’s the data for this section. Note that the foil multiplier is about 20% lower than in section #1:
- Total value of promos: $329.37
- Total value of set cards: $148.15 (55% less than both promos & set foils)
- Total value of set foils: $329.37
Category #3: The Set Foil Is More Valuable Than The Prerelease Promo
- Promo: $49.99
- Set: $25.19
- Set foil: $59.99
- Promo: $49.99
- Set: $39.99
- Set foil: $59.99
- Promo: $29.99
- Set: $8.49
- Set foil: $37.99
- Promo: $29.99
- Set: $11.29
- Set foil: $34.99
- Promo: $27.99
- Set: $14.39
- Set foil: $29.99
Kolaghan’s Command
- Promo: $24.99
- Set: $9.59
- Set foil: $27.99
- Promo: $22.99
- Set: $6.99
- Set foil: $24.99
- Promo: $17.99
- Set: $11.99
- Set foil: $19.99
- Promo: $17.99
- Set: $8.85
- Set foil: $19.99
- Promo: $15.99
- Set: $7.69
- Set foil: $19.99
- Promo: $12.99
- Set: $9.99
- Set foil: $14.99
- Promo: $8.99
- Set: $3.65
- Set foil: $9.99
- Promo: $4.99
- Set: $2.19
- Set foil: $6.99
Vryn Wingmare; Knight of the White Orchid; Dwynen, Gilt-Leaf Daen
- Promo: $4.99
- Set: $1.49
- Set foil: $5.99
- Promo: $2.49
- Set: $1.59
- Set foil: $2.99
Ivorytusk Fortress; Herald of Anafenza; Duneblast; Sultai Ascendancy; Necropolis Fiend; Jeering Instigator; Icy Blast; Sage-Eye Avengers; Crater Elemental
- Promo: $1.49
- Set: $0.49
- Set foil: $1.99
Sage of the Inward Eye; Flying Crane Technique; Dragon-Style Twins; Master of Pearls; Thousand Winds; Rakshasa Vizier; Kheru Lich Lord; Ankle Shanker; Avalanche Tusker; Trap Essence; Sandsteppe Mastodon
- Promo: $0.99
- Set: $0.49
- Set foil: $1.99
Section #3 has thirty-eight cards, making it the smallest of the three. Its total value, however, is the highest by quite a bit. Here we can find four of the five flip Planeswalkers, the two best Dragons of Tarkir, the most powerful Eternal cards in Khans of Tarkir Block, and the two key cards in Mono-Red.
Based on this, it appears as though the demographics most interested in high end foils – aesthetic-oriented Modern and Legacy players, cubers, rich people who buy four foil copies of Dragonlord Ojutai on a whim because they think they might want to play the deck next weekend – are still not sold on any increased value for the prerelease promos. While it’s unclear whether prerelease promos or set foils are actually rarer at this point, the sorts of people who drop $50 on a Standard-legal card have made their opinion clear.
The other cards filling up this section? Khans of Tarkir bulk rares! Many of the worst cards in Khans washed up here, and I’m not quite sure why. Part of it might be due to people wanting to put together foil sets of Khans of Tarkir, which would preclude prerelease foils. It might also be due to any number of smaller, less significant reasons – Star City Games might just have a lot of these promos they want to get rid of, for example, or the price on these cards was set before a new policy and no one’s bothered to change it because very few people actually buy these cards.
Most interesting to me is that the foil modifier is less than it is in the previous section when accounting for promos and greater when looking at set foils. That makes sense – if we consider the neutral section to be a baseline, then people buying these cards are actively choosing the set foils. That, in turn, leaches demand from the price of the promos. Consider:
- Total value of promos: $356.63
- Total value of set cards: $176.15 (51% less than promos, 59% less than set foils)
- Total value of set foils: $428.63 (18% more than promos)
So – what’s worth more, set foils or prerelease promos? Right now, the answer appears to be that lower value/Commander-centric prerelease promos are better, Eternal/high end set foils are better, and it doesn’t matter for most mid-tier Standard staples. In fact, the overall value of promos versus set foils shakes out to be almost identical. Check out our final numbers:
- Total value of promos: $947.52
- Total value of set cards: $393.36 (59% less than both promos and foils)
- Total value of set foils: $955.03 (0.07% more than promos)
That’s pretty neat! The overall foil modified is just a little better than 2:1, and the difference between set foils and promos is well within whatever margin of error we’re working with.
The big question, of course, is whether or not this is going to change in Battle for Zendikar. They’re increasing the overall size of the foil pool by a little more than a third, which will make prerelease cards even rarer. It will also mean that it’s now possible to collect an entire set (the rares and mythics, at least) full of prerelease cards, which could lead to a small bump in some of the lower-end foils as people take on that difficult task.
I expect the status quo to hold for the meantime, and I’d focus on set foils over prerelease promos when buying expensive cards. That might change if the high-end community holistically shifts their focus toward prerelease promos or if one of the big dealers decides to stage an across-the-board buyout in an attempt to impress on us just how rare prerelease cards are these days. If either of those things happen, the undervalued Eternal promos (Dig Through Time, Tasigur, the Golden Fang, etc.) will become very good buys. (Foil copies of Tasigur, the Golden Fang are worth buying right now anyway, of course.) Until then, I’d stick with what we know: for the most part, set foils and prerelease foils are worth about the same.
This Week’s Trends
- I’m writing this before the Battle For Zendikar PAX party, so be aware that I don’t have access to a wealth of knowledge that you do in the future. Lucky you! I’ll be talking about all of those goodies in next week’s article. Right now, I just know about Guardian of Tazeem and Hedron Archive. Both cards will be good in Limited, but I can’t see either making much of an impact in Standard. The best is yet to come, I’m sure.
- The Modern metagame at the World Championship was very weird, likely the result of a small tournament populated mostly by professional players who know each other well and test together all the time. Affinity, Living End, and G/W Hexproof were the most-played decks, and there was very little U/R or control of any kind. We might see some price spikes from these decks – Living End (the card itself) is a decent pick-up – but I’d expect most people to know that this event doesn’t represent a fundamental shift in the metagame or anything. Most Modern staples are dropping anyway as people look toward the next PPTQ season anyway, so the upside here is minimal.
- Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy and Hangerback Walker have both started showed up in Modern as well, causing a spike in the foil price of both cards. Sell into the spike if you can – both cards are still being opened, and their value depends a lot more on Standard than Modern right now.
- Cloudstone Curio and Evolutionary Leap surged in price last weekend thanks to Chris VanMeter’s Evolutionary Elves deck from SCG Charlotte. The deck was featured in an on-camera deck tech, but Chris unfortunately lost early on in Day Two and dropped from the event. The deck is interesting, but if you can sell either of these cards into the spike still, you should. Evolutionary Leap should find a home at some point, and it is seeing some play in rogue decks online, but I think it’ll drop before it spikes again.
- Someone released fake pictures of the Zendikar fetchlands in Commander 2015. Not only was there a pretty major grammatical error on one of the cards, but the art was taken from existing pieces that savvy searchers found online in a matter of minutes. Regular readers of this column know that I highly doubt we’ll see these cards until the spring set, so it shouldn’t have come as a shock when this rumor was debunked.
- Khans of Tarkir staples have started trending up in anticipation for Battle of Zendikar. Last chance to get those staples before December, folks!