So, Extended season is over.
Damn.
It took a while to get over being unable to make new Extended decks. This season saw one of the best Constructed formats in quite some time… though it seems Friggorid will be degrading our wonderful environment next year. Alas. On the bright side, I now have a reason to write about Vintage again. It’s time to celebrate the New Year and give out some vague and inaccurate predictions for 2006!
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On Air.
Hi kids, Veggies here! We’ve got a tremendous show for you tonight. Over the next 10 minutes – or an hour for slow people – I’ll be telling you my resolutions for the New Year. Later we’ll have a Very Special Guest come and discuss predictions for Vintage in 2006.
So let’s get started! After all, this is to avoid a nasty kneecapping.
Resolution #1: I shall make an attempt to modify decks to match my skill level before declaring them “the suck.”
When your plan of playing Control Slaver and Gifts at a high level is “do what Rich Shay would do,” you may have some issues. Especially when he’s your regular test-partner. Interestingly enough, this helped teach me a lesson: make your deck more powerful to compensate for a difference in playing ability.
People do this all the time in other formats; it’s not just a Vintage trend. In Extended season, many people wrecked Antoine Ruel Psychatog deck from Pro Tour: Los Angeles when they couldn’t duplicate his results. Another set of players took the opposite approach, playing the deck card for card, to similarly disastrous results.
Richard Feldman recently wrote an article that covered his team’s thought processes and modifications to the deck. His team was successful because they understood what made the deck tick – the core – along the decision trees you’ll make in an average game. This allowed him to analyze why the deck succeeded at the Pro Tour level, and what should be modified for the PTQ circuit. You need to think about the skill level, and identify the room-for-error in modifying and playing “Deck X.” If it’s too high, try making modifications to simplify the decision process… but you need an understanding of why the deck succeeds at the highest level. Deck construction goes one of two ways: from the ground up, when making a new deck; or from the top down, when altering a proven deck to optimize it for a certain metagame.
We’ve got to cut to commercial, but when we return we’ll have a Very Special Guest joining us to help us with predictions for 2006. Feel free to get a drink, and see you in a few!
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Doo-dee-doo…
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Sealed articles do this all the time. Suck knees if you don’t like it.
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And now, back to the show!
Our next topic of discussion concerns my predictions the coming Vintage year. Be wary, as the quandaries presented may wipe your mind of rational thought.
You have been warned.
Joining us now will be our Very Special, and psychic, Guest… Kelp!**
Veggies: Welcome to the show, Kelp!
Kelp: Great to be here, Veggies.
Veggies: So, anything interesting going on with you?
Kelp: Sadly, no.
Veggies: Gotcha. Mind helping us out with some predictions for Vintage while you’re here?
Kelp: Sure… there’s not much for me to do until Guildpact comes out, or until some diver gets tangled in me.
Veggies: Excellent! Let’s begin!
Prediction #1: More cards will be unrestricted than restricted.
Last year we had one card removed from the Restricted List: Mind over Matter. On the other hand, we had three restricted: Trinisphere, Personal Tutor and Imperial Seal. We may be reaching a point where we’ll see more of the weaker cards removed from the list. Mind over Matter came off, so why not Voltaic Key in March?
After that, it gets a little dicey… but I’ve yet to see a good reason why Entomb is still restricted, now that the Banned and Restricted Lists have been separated from Legacy. Though if people are still scared of “Four Entomb Dragon,” feel free to let me know.
I’m banking on those two cards coming off the list to get a win, or at least a push, on this prediction. The only other card I could see coming off the list is Frantic Search, due to its low playability even in Combo… but it’s still a “free” spell and hence doubtful to ever gain parole.
Kelp: I agree with this. Every year, there’s a very close relationship in the number of cards coming on and off the list. And if you’re wrong, you can claim the DCI decided to cop out on the entire issue. It’s a win-win scenario!
Prediction #2: The proxy standard (currently set at 10) will be upgraded again.
Hey, sometimes complaints get answers. Personally, I hope it doesn’t go above twelve, and we focus more on legalizing proxies that don’t completely suck. I doubt this will happen, but a man can dream…
Back to my main point: if another deck costing around the Uba Stax range is found, expect too much crying from people (and their wallets) to ignore.
Prediction #3: Innovation will be slow in coming.
Call it a hunch. And no, I don’t blame laziness for the lack of new exciting decks being made every other day.
Prediction #4: People will complain about Yawgmoth’s Will and Tinker, and the DCI will continue to ignore them.
Ok, I’m cheating. The first half of this isn’t a prediction at all. No sir… it’s a fact. Even though we play in format of monstrosities, some people still want to limit the broken savagery of many decks. In the process, many good threads over on The Mana Drain will be sidetracked, locked or moderated due to these pointless arguments.
Who wants to take bets on this prediction?
The DCI will continue to let these two broken cards run rampant. Speculation on their banning will continue throughout the year. Perhaps someday these people will be right, just like the splitting of the Banned and Restricted Lists, and legalization of Portal… but it took a long time for those to happen. I expect the same here.
Kelp: Man, how can people be so wack? Everyone wants a show. They all want an e-penis circle-jerk and fifteen seconds of fame. Pitiful aims.*
Prediction #5: Control Slaver and Stax will continue to perform well in Vintage events throughout the year.
Control Slaver has been one of the most prominent and successful control decks since its inception, and it will continue to perform well at various high-level Vintage events throughout 2006. The deck will adapt to whatever is thrown at it, Goblin Welder will still make decks ask “how do I beat a 1/1,” and the effectiveness of Slaving an opponent will only increase as time goes on.
Stax is Control taken to the next level… the prison archetype. Consider that almost every Vintage deck aims to abuse quick mana (to gain overwhelming board advantage, or simply win the game outright). Now ponder what Stax tends to stop you doing…
That’s why I think Stax will continue to succeed, despite decks being tuned to beat it.
Kelp: Well, duh!
Veggies: Your insight is “well, duh’? That’s it?
Kelp: That prediction was too obvious.
Veggies: Shockingly, I get a few freebies.
Kelp: I find these predictions, and this article, to be shallow and pedantic.
Veggies: Whatever! Thanks for the help anyway, you dirty, water-breathing plant thing.
After out next commercial break, more resolutions…
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Aside
Has anyone noticed how much quality television is on the air right now? I’m thoroughly shocked by how often I’m watching TV at night. In the past, if I wasn’t watching ESPN, Law and Order, Comedy Central or Adult Swim, I wasn’t watching anything at all.
Now I stare at quality shows that have come out… House, The Boondocks, Veronica Mars, Everybody Hates Chris, My Name is Earl, The Shield, Family Guy and even that remake of The Office is pretty good now.
Life is sweet.
End aside
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We return, and I’m sure we’re all getting tired of this corny, played-out gag…
More resolutions!
Resolution #2: Explaining to more people why decks like TT Confidant or Belcher aren’t terrible.
[Resolution #1 is at the top of the page. –Ed]
Why are these decks considered terrible? Because they give you zero chance to outplay the opponent, are vulnerable to hate, and they leave much to gut-call mulligans (or so you think). Those are the main reasons Combo decks like Belcher and Grim Long fail to burn up folks’ “I-have-to-play-this-deck-and-whine-for-more-proxies-to-do-so” list. So why bother playing them?
Quite simply, they give you the highest power ratio, and the best chance to win nearly every single game, of any deck available. You’re no longer playing match percentages when you pick a deck like this. Instead, you have a deck that will hopefully give you a game-winning hand if you correctly apply the accessible information. If you have a great chance of winning that game, the following game could be an entirely different scenario you have to play through…
Hate vs. no hate.
Discard or Pithing Needle.
Chalice of the Void or Null Rod
Every game will give you a limited amount of options, and your best time to optimize the odds with Combo is with the opening hand. This is different from your average Control deck, as counters and draw engines change the game level. With Control you don’t need the optimal hand for a given situation, because you have a catchall in counters. Sub-optimal hands can be kept through the promise of drawing engines, such as Brainstorm, Thirst for Knowledge, and Dark Confidant. This allows you to balance out the mana-to-spell ratio and look further into your deck.
Basically, the decks are great… if you’re willing to invest the time.
Few are.
It’s your own loss.
These seem obvious experiments, when you think about it. I mean, a recurring card-advantage engine that requires 1B to get going in a mid-game Combo deck? Seems good. A way to speed out Crucible of Worlds recursion and Trinisphere, backed by some of the best counters ever printed? Sign me up. Thinking outside the box can be an engaging experience that more people, including myself, should try.
In conclusion, may 2006 be another year of Vintage prosperity, and let’s hope the player population gets a wee bit better.
Joshua Silvestri
Team Reflection
Email: joshDOTsilvestriATgmailDOTcom
*Dangerdoom rocks. Some of the segments may or may not be related to listening to this album.
**Klep rocks.