Too Much Information – StarCityGames.com Standard Open: Richmond

StarCityGames.com Open Series: Indianapolis on March 13-14
Wednesday, March 10th – Five hundred sixty one players descended on Richmond for the StarCityGames.com Standard Open, and they played 3506 matches. What can that tell us in preparation for this weekend€™s SCG.com Open in Indianapolis? Jared crunches the data to find out.

Here’s the spreadsheet, guys. Enjoy!

Let’s start with an Archetype Breakdown:

The first thing that jumps out at me is that U/W Control was the third most popular archetype, but had a terrible day. Kurt Spiess piloted the deck to 8-1-1 and 9th place, but you have to go all the way to 59th to find the next U/W Control, and only 5 made the top 100. That’s a pretty weak showing for a deck comprising almost 12% of the field. The deck’s performance on the day way very weak as it won only 42.55% (120-165-17) of its matches. A 35.33% (32-59-1) win percentage against Jund was a big part of the disappointing results. Combine that with 43.24% (14-19-4) against Naya, and it looks like the deck may not deserve a prominent place in the present metagame until some tweaks are made.

I discussed the match-up between Jund and Boss Naya in my article on Pro Tour: San Diego, so I though it would be good to revisit it and see if the same trends showed up in Richmond. In San Diego, Jund came out on top 59.26% (16-11-0) of the time, in Richmond, the number of players piloting Boss Naya soared, but Jund still posted a positive result overall – 54.91% (60-49-3) — but the story gets interesting when you look at the top players. With 18+ point players on both sides of the table, Boss Naya actually comes out on top 51.79% (14-13-1) of the time. It looks like familiarity with the deck and the match-up may let the Boss Naya player even up, or even tip the scales in his or her favor.

Vampires had as disappointing a day as you can have when you put three decks in the top 8. The blood suckers couldn’t muster a winning record, going 129-146-7 (46.99%) against the rest of the field on the day. The bright spot is that if you take away a miserable 25-61-1 (29.31%) record against Jund, the remaining 104-85-6 (53.77%) record against the field makes you feel pretty good, until you realize that you are giving away the most important match-up in the format. But there is a ray of hope as the top players managed to fight Jund to a draw (50.00%, 7-7-0) suggesting that better versions of the deck, piloted by capable players, save this match-up from being a lost cause.

This week’s just missed deck is Ryan Fitzsimmons Knightfall deck. Sometimes called Junk, the deck is focused around Knight of the Reliquary and Lotus Cobra, abusing landfall to ramp out some huge threats very quickly. Ryan chose to forgo the traditional G/W/B build with Maelstrom Pulse, instead opting to supplement the combo with Bant staples.

Overall, Knightfall Bant decks posted a 63.04% (57-33-2) win percentage on the day against the rest of the field. A 51.43% (18-17-0) record against Jund (including a nice 4-0 contribution from Ryan) keeps you in the game, but 4-7-0 (36.36%) against Boss Naya is definitely a concern. Even though it lacked representation in the Top 16 in Richmond, Knightfall is still one of the decks to keep in your testing gauntlet.

One last statistic before I let you go: Jund’s record against the rest of the field for the event – 61.14% (408-257-13). That’s insane, especially when everyone is gunning for you as the deck.

See you in Indianapolis!