Keep.
It was Game 1, and I was down a game. My U/R Storm opponent was on the draw. My opening seven was too slow, and my six was unprepared for a combo deck. I felt the win slipping away as I mulliganed to five cards—no lands. Down to four, and all I found was a Mutavault. As I put my head in my hands, I clicked once more to mulligan to three: Island, Island, Chalice of the Void. We got there!
How to Mulligan Well
Mulliganing is a large part of Magic and knowing how to mulligan well can help to improve your game. In short, to take a mulligan is to decide that your opening hand is not good enough, so you shuffle those cards back into your opening hand and draw one fewer, hoping to find a better start to the game. It is defined in the Comprehensive rules as:
“103.4. Each player draws a number of cards equal to his or her starting hand size, which is normally seven. (Some effects can modify a player’s starting hand size.) A player who is dissatisfied with his or her initial hand may take a mulligan. First, the starting player declares whether or not he or she will take a mulligan. Then each other player in turn order does the same. Once each player has made a declaration, all players who decided to take mulligans do so at the same time. To take a mulligan, a player shuffles his or her hand back into his or her library, then draws a new hand of one fewer cards than he or she had before. If a player kept his or her hand of cards, those cards become the player’s opening hand, and that player may not take any further mulligans. This process is then repeated until no player takes a mulligan. (Note that if a player’s hand size reaches zero cards, that player must keep that hand.) Then, beginning with the starting player and proceeding in turn order, any player whose opening hand has fewer cards than his or her starting hand size may scry 1.”
Now, I know most of you didn’t just read that wall of text, and I wouldn’t expect you to. Most players know what a mulligan is and will do so regularly. What I’d like to talk about is why to mulligan and how to determine if it is the right choice for your situation.
As of Battle for Zendikar the rules for mulliganing changed. You are now given a scry after deciding to keep your hand if you have less than your starting hand size. This makes six-card hands easier to keep by giving you more information and a chance to dig one card deeper into your library if what you see will not help you. It also has an influence on shuffle effects and fetchlands. If you are on the play and have kept a good card on top of your library, you will want to choose not to fetch until after you have the opportunity to draw that card.
Magic is high-variance by nature, so throwing back your opening hand can sometimes be necessary. It can be quite obvious when a hand is terrible and those are the easy decisions, but more often the decision is much deeper than that. With enough experience with a certain deck it can become almost intuitive, but what if you are grabbing a new deck? Mulliganing well is still very important and can greatly increase your win percentage in Magic.
I would like to point out, before we get too far, that each deck will mulligan very differently from the next. Some decks can play perfectly well with only one land, while others require many colors as soon as possible. All mulliganing decisions should be made in context to your own deck and (if the information is available to you) your opponent’s deck.
Mana Problems
Sometimes the choice to mulligan can be quite obvious. Originally the mulligan rule in Magic was not an optional one. If you had all lands or no lands you would get a new hand; otherwise it was kept. Generally keeping no lands or all lands is not ideal and you would likely chose to mulligan that on your own. A good rule of thumb is to mulligan any hand with zero, one, six, or seven lands. This will normally not allow you to play your strategy and can be a quick decision factor in mulliganing.
Creatures (44)
Spells (16)
Sideboard
There are, of course, extreme circumstances like Legacy Manaless Dredge which will break this rule all the time, but most decks are not like that.
Mulligan.
In addition to checking for mana screw and mana flood, you want to make sure you can cast the spells in your hand. Make sure you have the right colors or mana and you aren’t holding three Forests and four red spells. Also, if your deck normally operates on a ramp or big mana strategy, check to see you have drawn the right half of your deck. You don’t want some lands and your big finishers; you need to have your Birds of Paradise or Utopia Sprawls in your opening hand and then draw your more potent spells later in the game.
Mulligan.
When you have fewer cards in your hand, the rule changes as well. If you have already mulliganed down to five cards, you may be more willing to keep a single land. As a general rule, mana flood beats mana screw, so if you find yourself down to four cards, you may want to keep four lands. You are more likely to draw spells that you are able to cast than if you kept several two- or three-mana spells and are digging for certain colors of land.
While these situations are unfortunate, they happen often. Variance plays a role in Magic and sometimes you will draw three or four opening hands without seeing a single land or a single spell. It feels bad, but try not to get too tilted by it. There are plenty of times where players have won from a small starting hand size.
Non-Mana Problems
Mulliganing non-mana problem hands can be much trickier. You want to check and make sure that you have a gameplan with your opening hand. Look for a good curve, balanced mana sources, and general stability. Think about what is in your deck and the likelihood of drawing the cards you are looking for in the next few turns. By knowing your deck well, you will discover why some hands that may seem keepable are better off sent back for six.
Deciding to Mulligan
Let’s begin with how to mulligan against an unknown opponent. You will be playing with your 60-card maindeck and are focusing entirely on your own gameplan. Look for a nice curve or some way to complete your strategy. If you are searching for a combo to win the game, check to see how many pieces you have or how easily you will be able to find them.
Search for an opening hand that fares well against much of the metagame. In some situations an opening hand can be excellent against one specific archetype, such as when you draw several pieces of land destruction. This would be an excellent opening hand against a deck like Tron but is likely weak against much of the field. If you know, or suspect, your opponent is playing Tron, then feel free to keep it, but in most Games 1 you will have a better chance if you find a different opening hand.
Keep.
Check for a streamlined Game 1. Are you able to cast all of the spells in your hand? Do you have the right colors, types, and amounts of mana but also spells that help your early gameplan? You will be focusing on your own gameplan until you can determine what your opponent is playing. Once you have more information, your plan can adapt, but to start you just have to play to your strategy and to the odds that you are not playing against Shaman Tribal.
In Games 2 and 3, hopefully you will have determined what your opponent’s strategy is. If you struggle to determine opposing decks, check out my article from a few weeks ago about identifying decks by turn 1 and 2 plays. Once you have sideboarded, you can search for hate cards or other special opening moves that are particularly good against the deck your opponent is playing. Depending on how hard the matchup is, sometimes it is worth it to dig to a hate card, even if that means mulliganing several times. Don’t get blinded in your search, though. It can be very easy to think, “If I can draw my Spellskite against Infect, they have a hard time winning the game,” but sometimes you happen to draw a bunch of removal or a very fast hand of your own without it. Keeping this hand is probably more likely to win you the game than mulliganing two or three more times searching for another specific card.
Mulligan.
Several Modern decks run Thoughtseize as their preferred turn 1 play. If you know you are playing against a deck with hand disruption, you should keep that in mind while making mulligan decisions. Oftentimes a good opening hand for Merfolk can be one land with an Aether Vial. If there is a chance that your opponent could take your Aether Vial before you can cast it, the hand is simply not keepable. If the success of your strategy hinges on a single card in your hand resolving, it is probably not good enough and should be sent back.
Mulliganing can feel bad because as Magic players we are taught that card advantage is king. While this is definitely true, sometimes your seven- or six-card hand will not work and a five-card hand could truly be better. It is a fine line to determine if your deck will play better with one fewer cards and there are several factors that can go into it.
If you are running any card advantage spells, such as cantrips or Dark Confidant, hands become much more keepable. If you know you will have extra draws to find what you need and come back from behind, it is much more likely that you can keep that hand.
It can also be helpful to know if your opponent has mulliganed. Mulligans are decided in APNAP (Active Player, Non-Active Player) order, with the player on the play deciding if they will mulligan first. You can make more informed decisions about your own hand if you know they are going to be a card behind you.
Think about the rest of your deck and the average opening hand you are likely to draw. If the hand you have is not very good and you think a random six cards from your entire deck would be better, mulliganing is the right move. Try to find the balance to give yourself the best chance of winning the game with your opening hand.
Mulligan.
Sometimes you will draw dead cards. These cards don’t do anything against a certain opponent or having multiple copies of them in your hand makes them useless. Drawing two Melira, Sylvok Outcast in an opening hand is basically the same as mulliganing to six cards before you decide. Consider this when choosing to mulligan or not as well. If you have a mediocre hand with a dead card in it, mulliganing to six cards will likely be better for you.
You can use math and probability of drawing certain cards in your deck as part of your decision to mulligan. I am no math expert, but Frank Karsten wrote a really detailed article about a year ago digging into the mathematics of mulliganing. He has all kinds of crazy calculations and charts, so if you are interested in that I highly recommend you go read his article.
Prepare your mulliganing plan before you play by knowing which cards in your deck you want or don’t want to see early. You can determine which cards in your deck are generally good against certain archetypes. For example, in a control deck, you will likely be happy to keep a battlefield wipe against an aggressive deck but less happy to keep it against a combo deck.
Keep.
Different archetypes also have different patterns for mulliganing that can be identified. Aggressive decks are looking for a good curve and a way to deploy many threats early. Combo decks are looking for parts of their combo or cards to search it up, so having a perfect curve is less of a concern. Control may be happier keeping more lands than other decks because they try to go into the late-game and hitting every land drop can help their plan significantly, whereas midrange decks are looking to gain an incremental advantage over their opponent with two-for-ones and will be looking for cards to gain tempo over their opponents.
Some decks mulligan better than others and some decks are worse to mulligan against. Decks that rely on card advantage to win the game, like Jund, try not to take too many mulligans. They are also quite happy when their opponent mulligans because it is one less card they will need to take out of your hand with Thoughtseize and Liliana of the Veil.
The Final Keep
If you gain only one piece of useful information from this article, I hope it is this: do not be afraid to mulligan. Mulliganing aggressively is not always the right choice, but I’ve found that most players are a bit too wary of going down to fewer cards, especially in a format as mulligan-dependent as Modern. Sometimes a four-card hand really will be better than your five-card hand. Best of luck, and may you mulligan your way to more wins. Have a wonderful week, and as always, happy gaming!
Bonus Time!
Here are some example opening hands. Would you keep or mulligan?
Piloting G/R Tron vs. unknown opponent on the play:
Keep – This will allow you to find the Urzatron and likely complete your plan in a timely manner.
Piloting Jeskai Control vs. Naya Zoo on the draw:
Tricky – Possibly too slow, but Anger of the Gods makes it more tempting to keep. You would still need to find a second source of red mana, though.
Piloting Abzan vs. Merfolk on the play:
Keep – Early threats and choice removal make this a good hand versus Merfolk.
Piloting Dredge vs. unknown opponent on the draw:
Mulligan – You have no way to get your dredge engine online, so you should mulligan and look for Insolent Neonate or Faithless Looting.