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The Snapping Thragg Experiment Revisited

The experiment works like this. I build the packs for an entire 8-man booster draft (twenty-four packs). I then build the same set of packs again, making two copies of the exact same draft. I have my CMU cohorts sit down and draft once, and then for the second run of the same draft, I move the packs back three seats so that different people are drafting different packs even though both of the drafts are identical. The object, of course, is to see how different people draft the same exact set of packs.

So you’re ready for something different are you?


Better buckle your seatbelt, this is gonna be a long haul.


This project began as a long-shot brainstorm over six months ago and I could never find the time to sit down and do the lackey work to make it come together. Since I’ve been on Winter Break though, I’ve had time to slowly piece it together.


Since I know you’re anxious to hear what I’m actually referring to, I’ll cut the obligatory rambling and just come out with it.


The experiment works like this. I build the packs for an entire 8-man booster draft (twenty-four packs). I then build the same set of packs again, making two copies of the exact same draft. I have my CMU cohorts sit down and draft once, and then for the second run of the same draft, I move the packs back three seats so that different people are drafting different packs even though both of the drafts are identical. The object, of course, is to see how different people draft the same exact set of packs.


One of the big decisions I had to make was how powerful the card pool would be. An influential factor here is that the people actually drafting the cards shouldn’t be able to tell that it is the exact same draft! To do this, I had to ensure that most of the rares would be gone by third or fourth pick, simply because people would catch on if the same Damping Matrix, Gate to the Aether, and Vermiculos were floating around in the late picks of the same set of packs. So most of the rares had to be good, that much was decided.


Another angle of this test was that I wanted to have lots of difficult decisions built into the packs, and lots of different possible roads for the players to travel. Needless to say, it was not easy and took me well over five hours to even get a rough draft on the packs.


Oh, I almost forgot, I said I was going to skip the rambling this time.


My bad.


Since this is already going to be incredibly lengthy, I’ll just let you email me or ask me in the forums if you have questions as to how I arrived at the packs or any other aspect of the experiment. I tried to follow common runs as much as I could, but in the end, most of the packs don’t follow them, and you have my apologies for that.


With that covered, I can introduce you to my lab rats…































Seat


Name


1


Dr. Jason Martel


2


Mike Sabatini


3


Dane Thomas


4


“Downtown” Andrew Brown


5


Mike Turian


6


Eugene Harvey


7


Jeremy Darling


8


Nate Heiss

The seats were picked at random, of course. Now we’ll move onto the actual packs, so you can take a look at them and I’ll list who drafted this set of packs in each draft. Each set of three packs will also be given a letter so it can be more easily referred to later in the analysis.


The Packs


A

Draft 1 Seat 1 : Dr. Martel

Draft 2 Seat 6 : Eugene Harvey


Pack 1

Nim Shrieker

Leaden Myr

Lumengrid Warden

Tel-Jilad Exile

Vorrac Battlehorns

Wail of the Nim

Pyrite Spellbomb

Tel-Jilad Archers

Goblin Striker

Yotian Soldier

Shatter

Mourner’s Shield

Crystal Shard

Assert Authority

Solar Tide


Pack 2

Leonin Den-Guard

Thoughtcast

Consume Spirit

Battlegrowth

Dross Prowler

Clockwork Condor

Chromatic Sphere

Neurok Spy

Tree of Tales

Bonesplitter

Blinding Beam

Grab the Reins

Blinkmoth Well

Slith Strider

Megatog


Pack 3

Terror

Krark-Clan Grunt

Deconstruct

Ogre Leadfoot

Somber Hoverguard

Tel-Jilad Chosen

Vault of Whispers

Elf Replica

Dream’s Grip

Leonin Scimitar

Silver Myr

Bloodscent

Serum Tank

Rustmouth Ogre

Solemn Simulacrum


B

Draft 1 Seat 2 : Mike Sabatini

Draft 2 Seat 7 : Jeremy Darling

Pack 1

Myr Enforcer

Vulshok Berserker

Lifespark Spellbomb

Regress

Cloudpost

Fangren Hunter

Vulshok Gauntlets

Krark-Clan Shaman

Moriok Scavenger

Journey of Discovery

Irradiate

Sphere of Purity

Talisman of Impulse

One Dozen Eyes

Goblin Charbelcher


Pack 2

Goblin Replica

Annul

Wurmskin Forger

Arrest

Fists of the Anvil

Frogmite

Disciple of the Vault

Scale of Chiss-Goria

Electrostatic Bolt

Turn to Dust

Auriok Transfixer

Domineer

Slith Predator

Atog

Broodstar


Pack 3

Cobalt Golem

Nim Lasher

Neurok Familiar

Skyhunter Cub

Incite War

Inertia Bubble

Awe Strike

Soldier Replica

Consume Spirit

Spikeshot Goblin

Predator’s Strike

Relic Bane

Myr Retriever

Nim Shambler

Molder Slug


C

Draft 1 Seat 3 : Dane Thomas

Draft 2 Seat 8 : Nate Heiss



Pack 1

Wanderguard Sentry

Copper Myr

Tel-Jilad Archers

Iron Myr

Loxodon Mender

Goblin Replica

Myr Enforcer

Electrostatic Bolt

Wizard Replica

Skyhunter Patrol

Viridian Joiner

Brown Ouphe

Shrapnel Blast

Taj-Nar Swordsmith

Clockwork Dragon


Pack 2

Raise the Alarm

Necrogen Spellbomb

Molten Rain

Pewter Golem

Neurok Spy

Predator’s Strike

Vulshok Berserker

Deconstruct

Nim Replica

Nim Shrieker

Steel Wall

Lightning Greaves

Looming Hoverguard

Betrayal of Flesh

Lumengrid Augur


Pack 3

Frogmite

Shatter

Somber Hoverguard

Skyhunter Patrol

Aether Spellbomb

Moriok Scavenger

Override

Dross Scorpion

Contaminated Bond

Goblin War Wagon

Fangren Hunter

Detonate

Mask of Memory

Flayed Nim

Mindslaver


D

Draft 1 Seat 4 : Andrew Brown

Draft 2 Seat 1 : Dr. Martel


Pack 1

Gold Myr

Regress

Hematite Golem

Irradiate

Ancient Den

Yotian Soldier

Seat of the Synod

Leonin Scimitar

Disarm

Neurok Hoversail

Tel-Jilad Exile

Vulshok Battlegear

Slith Bloodletter

Thirst for Knowledge

Arc Slogger


Pack 2

Myr Adapter

Titanium Golem

Ogre Leadfoot

Vulshok Gauntlets

Wizard Replica

Skyhunter Cub

Thoughtcast

Wurmskin Forger

Groffskithur

Terror

Viridian Longbow

Auriok Bladewarden

Icy Manipulator

Trolls of Tel-Jilad

Empyrial Plate


Pack 3

Silver Myr

Journey of Discovery

Neurok Spy

Aether Spellbomb

Lumengrid Warden

Consume Spirit

Dross Prowler

Shatter

Vulshok Berserker

Pyrite Spellbomb

Electrostatic Bolt

Psychic Membrane

Rustspore Ram

Stalking Stones

Promise of Power


E

Draft 1 Seat 5 : Mike Turian

Draft 2 Seat 2 : Mike Sabatini



Pack 1

Arrest

Wanderguard Sentry

Iron Myr

Krark-Clan Grunt

Pyrite Spellbomb

Razor Barrier

Chimney Imp

Sunbeam Spellbomb

Tel-Jilad Chosen

Tooth of Chiss-Goria

Fists of the Anvil

Isochron Scepter

Tempest of Light

Loxodon Warhammer

Pentavus


Pack 2

Copper Myr

Soldier Replica

Annul

Alpha Myr

Tel-Jilad Archers

Leonin Elder

Welding Jar

Battlegrowth

Spikeshot Goblin

Leonin Den-Guard

Malachite Golem

Fractured Loyalty

Soul Nova

Dragon Blood

Leonin Abunas


Pack 3

Wrench Mind

Elf Replica

Bonesplitter

Krark-Clan Shaman

Cobalt Golem

Blinding Beam

Slagwurm Armor

Fangren Hunter

Auriok Transfixer

Regress

Turn to Dust

Wall of Blood

One Dozen Eyes

Roar of the Kha

Glissa Sunseeker


F

Draft 1 Seat 6 : Eugene Harvey

Draft 2 Seat 3 : Dane Thomas



Pack 1

Auriok Transfixer

Omega Myr

Disciple of the Vault

Awe Strike

Tel-Jilad Exile

Goblin Replica

Vulshok Berserker

Vorrac Battlehorns

Nim Replica

Blinding Beam

Mirror Golem

Looming Hoverguard

Leonin Skyhunter

Oblivion Stone


Pack 2

Goblin War Wagon

Scale of Chiss-Goria

Silver Myr

Wail of the Nim

Thoughtcast

Clockwork Condor

Leonin Elder

Necrogen Spellbomb

Dross Scorpion

Predator’s Strike

Molten Rain

Fireshrieker

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Altar’s Light

Mesmeric Orb


Pack 3

Goblin Replica

Frogmite

Wanderguard Sentry

Galvanic Key

Deconstruct

Razor Barrier

Leaden Myr

Incite War

Aether Spellbomb

Raise the Alarm

Wizard Replica

Nuisance Engine

Fabricate

Skeleton Shard

Temporal Cascade


G

Draft 1 Seat 7 : Jeremy Darling

Draft 2 Seat 4 : Andrew Brown


Pack 1

Titanium Golem

Dross Prowler

Silver Myr

Inertia Bubble

Nim Lasher

Pewter Golem

Tel-Jilad Chosen

Shatter

Aether Spellbomb

Skyhunter Cub

Clockwork Beetle

Granite Shard

Relic Bane

Cathodion

Soul Foundry


Pack 2

Hematite Golem

Disciple of the Vault

Viridian Longbow

Somber Hoverguard

Goblin Replica

Krark-Clan Grunt

Leonin Elder

Lifespark Spellbomb

Pyrite Spellbomb

Auriok Transfixer

Disarm

Goblin Dirigible

Heartwood Shard

Rustmouth Ogre

Troll Ascetic


Pack 3

Leonin Scimitar

Regress

Chromatic Sphere

Consume Spirit

Viridian Joiner

Clockwork Condor

Predator’s Strike

Arrest

Wizard Replica

Electrostatic Bolt

Myr Enforcer

Banshee’s Blade

Flayed Nim

Detonate

Rule of Law


H

Draft 1 Seat 8 : Nate Heiss

Draft 2 Seat 5 : Mike Turian


Pack 1

Wizard Replica

Scale of Chiss-Goria

Wanderguard Sentry

Steel Wall

Irradiate

Vulshok Gauntlets

Tel-Jilad Archers

Yotian Soldier

Welding Jar

Neurok Spy

Terror

Mask of Memory

Talisman of Progress

Slith Strider

Living Hive


Pack 2

Goblin Replica

Wrench Mind

Skyhunter Patrol

Ogre Leadfoot

Nim Replica

Annul

Omega Myr

Tel-Jilad Exile

Sunbeam Spellbomb

Override

Malachite Golem

Woebearer

Leonin Bladetrap

Trolls of Tel-Jilad

Damping Matrix


Pack 3

Goblin Striker

Neurok Hoversail

Frogmite

Razor Barrier

Wurmskin Forger

Alpha Myr

Loxodon Mender

Cobalt Golem

Contaminated Bond

Chimney Imp

Soldier Replica

Looming Hoverguard

Serum Tank

Grab the Reins

Mass Hysteria


My plan is to go over each of the drafts separately, and point out the difficult picks and how the players reacted to them. After that, I will show charts of how two players drafted the same set of packs, and where their picks diverged. I’ll also do this in seat order to make it easier to follow, since I know it’s tough to flip back between picks and packs. Unfortunately I know of no better way to convey the information, since it’s really hard to trace the packs for every pick.


Draft One

A: Jason Martel



Pack One

Immediately after busting his first pack, the good doctor is faced with a decision that makes him yell:”I hate you, Nick.”


The decision in question is of course Solar Tide versus Crystal Shard. After sitting there for what seemed like a half an hour, Jason selected the Solar Tide and said,”I know no one is going to agree with this.”


I have to disagree with the pick made by the master of all things Chuckie Cheese, in this case, as I would certainly take the Shard here. Not only is the Shard a more powerful card, but it is also much more splashable than the Tide. ‘Nuff said.


His second pick presents the question of Tel-Jilad Archers versus Neurok Spy. Oddly enough, Jason takes the Spy, despite the fact that he just passed Crystal Shard and definitely put the guy downstream (Saby) into Blue. In most cases, I’d take Spy over Archer too, but not after I’d just passed Crystal Shard. The rest of his picks are rather unexciting as he gets Mirror Golem fourth out of a busted pack opened by Eugene Harvey and then moves into Green for Tel-Jilad Exile and Archers. His picks are rounded out by some Yotian Soldiers which he definitely likes way too much. Then again, I’m sure that’s because 1/4’s like to play in the Ball Pit.


Pack Two

The second booster presents our in-house proctologist with the classic decision of Megatog and Grab the Reins. Thankfully, Jason selects Grab. His third pick brings us to a very close call, and I’m still not sure what I’d take in his situation. The pick is Lightning Greaves versus Deconstruct and Jason ended up taking the Deconstruct. I usually am a huge fan of the Greaves in Green simply because hasted Fangren Hunters end the game rather quickly. I’d probably go with the Greaves here, but I can certainly see where Jason is coming from with the Deconstruct, as removal is always good. Jason also ends up picking a relevant Blinding Beam for the possible splash even though he is clearly G/R.


Pack Three

The first pick here is again difficult, as it is between Rustmouth Ogre and Solemn Simulacrum. I’d personally take Jens here, simply because I always want to have Blinding Beams in my Green decks, and Jason already had one. The Jens simply solidifies the splash. Jason took the Ogre, which is okay since it’s huge, but he’s already Green and has lots of monsters like Malachite Golems and Trolls of Tel-Jilad, so I really think he should go with the manafixer here.


It’s also of note that I’d be more inclined to take the Rustmouth, if Jason had already selected the Greaves since a surprise attack with it is usually devastating. Jason is lucky enough to be shipped a second copy of Grab the Reins as Nate Heiss somehow took Looming Hoverguard for his White deck (more on this later). Jason does make an excellent pick in taking Fangren Hunter over One Dozen Eyes simply because his curve is already too high. He already has Malachite Golem, Trolls of Tel-Jilad, Mirror Golem, and many others populating the top slots of his curve, and while Eyes is usually the better card, I agree with his pick here.


B: Mike Sabatini


Pack One

While Saby didn’t start the draft off as well as some of the other guys at the table, he still made a very interesting pick right off the bat. That pick was taking Myr Enforcer over One Dozen Eyes and Fangren Hunter. Personally, I’ll always take the Eyes in this spot, as it’s a great splash and a ridiculously powerful card. It’s also strictly better than Fangren Hunter, if you aren’t already overloaded with top-end fatties. After getting shipped the Crystal Shard by Jason, Sab proceeds along the correct path and goes with his first-pick into the Affinity deck.


He is offered another shot at Green with a Tel-Jilad Archers, and opts for Wizard Replica instead. The pack rounds out with another Wizard and a couple of Myr, not too exciting.


Pack Two

Well apparently Mike has some sort of foresight, because he was able to get himself into the proper deck for his pack two open of Broodstar. He is then shipped a very happy Looming Hoverguard which he correctly takes over Lumengrid Augur. He takes Terror third out of a pack that was just drained of Empyrial Plate and Icy Manipulator by Andrew Brown and Dane Thomas, and then gets a Mesmeric Orb and Goblin Dirigible in the middle picks.


Pack Three

This pack just makes me all giddy inside, because I purposely threw the complete hook by having Broodstar in pack two and Molder Slug in pack three. This has actually happened to me twice in real drafts, and so I figured I’d pass along the favor here. Saby is visibly angry at opening the Slug and being far too entrenched in the Affinity deck to play it. After some yelling he slams it in his pile, correctly hate drafting it, since it is the absolute nuts against his Artifact-filled construction. I can’t say that I’d do any different in this case, and hate drafting is certainly correct in these situations no matter what KK may try to tell you. Mike goes on to pick up a Somber Hoverguard over Solemn Simulacrum (correct for his deck), Myr Enforcer, and some other average cards to fill out his deck.


C: Dane Thomas


Pack One

Dane opens a close call pack, featuring Shrapnel Blast and Clockwork Dragon. I don’t know about you, but I’ve never been overly happy to have the clunky Dragon in my deck, and most of the time I’ve cast the Blast, I’ve won. Five damage for two mana is just absolutely ridiculous. I have to go with the Blast here, and Dane agrees, as he selects it as his first pick. Dane’s next pick is interesting as he takes Vulshok Berserker over the One Dozen Eyes and Fangren Hunter that Saby had passed up on. Personally I’d take the Eyes here, as both Eyes and Shrapnel Blast are good splash candidates and keep your colors open. Taking the Berserker and sticking to Red is also a fine decision.


The next pick offers Terror versus Tel-Jilad Archers, and Dane selects the Terror. I agree with this on all fronts, since he already gave up Green by passing the Fangren and Eyes earlier. His next pick, however, puzzles me a bit as he takes Relic Bane over Granite Shard. Don’t get me wrong, I like Relic Bane just as much as the next guy, and definitely want it in my deck if I’m playing Black, but it just seems like a contradiction when you look at the rest of his picks. He took a Berserker over the much more powerful One Dozen Eyes, which you would only do if you wanted to keep your options open as long as possible. Now he’s going and committing to Black with the Bane, when he really should just take the Shard and be looking to splash Terror. Just my two cents on the matter.


Pack Two

Dane starts this pack off with a very obvious Betrayal of Flesh. He is then shipped and even more obvious pick of Empyrial Plate when Andrew Brown selects Icy Manipulator over it. With the third pick comes Leonin Abunas, which only solidifies my claim earlier about taking the Granite Shard over Relic Bane. Most of the best decks in this format in my experience have been composed of a base color and two small splashes. The double-splash is definitely in order for Dane in this draft.


Pack Three

Mr. Thomas opens a whale of a decision in pack three. In his colors alone, the pack contains Detonate, Shatter, Mask of Memory and Mindslaver. I’ve already stated how I feel about Mindslaver in another article, though it has gone down slightly in my ranking. I’d still take it over Shatter though, and unfortunately, Dane picks the Shatter. The Mask simply isn’t that good in his deck since he doesn’t have lots of evasion. Not a horrible pick by any means, and especially good in a B/R deck, but I’d rather have the Slave.


Dane also makes a somewhat odd pick of taking a second Terror over Solemn Simulacrum when Black has many ways of recurring the Invitational card. It’s still an okay pick, but I really like having Jens to go with my Moriok Scavengers. Dane also ends up hate drafting Deconstruct, One Dozen Eyes, and a Soldier Replica in his middle picks of this pack before picking up Flayed Nim and Relic Bane late.


D: Andrew Brown


Pack One

Brown starts off by selecting Arc Slogger over Vulshok Battlegear, which is certainly correct. Second pick he passes on the Clockwork Dragon that Dane just cracked for an Electrostatic Bolt, which I also have to agree with. At this point, Brown picks up the ball and moves into Green when he is shipped the pack still containing One Dozen Eyes and Fangren Hunter. His next two picks are Archers followed by more Green men and Granite Shard and his deck is looking spectacular after the first pack.


Pack Two

The second pack brings with it a very difficult decision: Icy Manipulator versus Empyrial Plate. Brown makes the correct pick here and takes the Icy, since he already has two Tel-Jilad Archers and a Chosen, none of which can be equipped by the monstrous piece of weaponry. Andy is the lucky recipient of a second-pick Spikeshot Goblin when Mike Turian opts for an Archers for his G/B build. He is then shipped a fourth pick Rustmouth Ogre out of Jeremy Darling’s powerful second pack. Solid creatures like Berserker, Goblin Replica, and Ogre Leadfoot round out the second set of packs.


Pack Three

Brown takes Electrostatic Bolt number two correctly over Shatter first pick, and then Mindslaver over Detonate and Mask of Memory (see Empyrial Plate above), which we all know I agree with. Third pick brings a Predator’s Strike and then the Jens that nobody seemed to want for some reason arrives fourth. Brown does take the Jens over Deconstruct though, which is slightly questionable. Brown gets another Chosen and Predator’s Strike to round out the last set of packs, and arrives at what I consider to be a very solid deck.


E: Mike Turian


Pack One

The Potato cracks a doozy of an opening pack, presenting him with the choice of Loxodon Warhammer and Pentavus. Mike takes the Warhammer and I have to agree with that. I have seen many people take Pentavus in this situation, and while Pentavus is clearly a bomb, I’m never going to take it over Warhammer. Turian makes a strange pick second by taking Slith Bloodletter over the more versatile Vulshok Battlegear. Having too much heavy Equipment is certainly a bad thing, but it’s only the second pick of the draft, and Mike is making a very clear statement by taking the Bloodletter here. He wants to be the Black drafter. Mike gets the Clockwork Dragon third, followed by the Fangren Hunter and Living Hive that Brown took One Dozen Eyes and Tel-Jilad Archer over respectively. Turian finishes up with a Moriok Scavenger, Irradiate, and a couple of Myr.


Pack Two

Mike busts a mediocre pack with Tel-Jilad Archers and Spikeshot being the standouts. Clearly he takes the Archer and ships the Spikeshot to Brown.


Mike is kind of in a tight spot here, since he isn’t aware that Brown is in Green when receiving such a late Fangren Hunter. The fact of the matter is that Brown was picking better Green cards over the ones that Mike got, but Mike is probably going to get hosed in pack three, when the packs are less likely to be flooded with good Green cards in the late picks. This is partially because Dr. Martell moved into Green after taking Spy over Archers. Anyway, back to Mike’s second pack.


Mike gets a Predator’s Strike second, and is proud to look in the third pick and find a Troll Ascetic waiting for him. This is followed by a Trolls of Tel-Jilad and another Predator’s Strike to finish up the booster.


Pack Three

It only takes Turian five seconds to slam his Glissa Sunseeker, when he opens his pack. Luckily he was shipped all of that Green late, or he’d probably have to ship it along. He is also happy to see a second pick Promise of Power waiting for him out of Brown’s pack, and a Fangren Hunter out of Dane’s when Brown takes Mindslaver over it. Mike gets a Deconstruct fifth when Brown takes Jens over it. He finishes up with a Nim Shambler, Nuisance Engine, and Neurok Hoversail.


F: Eugene Harvey


Pack One

Euge opens a busted pack featuring Oblivion Stone in the forefront. Obviously he takes it, passing Jeremy a Looming Hoverguard. Harvey is practically falling out of his chair laughing in his second pick when he sees the Pentavus that Turian ships. The third pick, however, is a huge letdown, as Eugene takes Leonin Scimitar over Vulshok Battlegear. While I’m not a huge fan of the Gear, I certainly think it is better than the Scimitar. Eugene then takes Myr Enforcer over Skyhunter Patrol and Tel-Jilad Archers, showing a preference for Affinity, and U/B in particular. Not something I would do, but I can again see where he’s coming from. My suspicions are confirmed when Harvey takes Irradiate next followed by Nim Shrieker.


Pack Two

Eugene opens a terrible second pack and takes Fireshrieker first. He passes along the Troll Ascetic to Turian with his second pick, in favor of Pyrite Spellbomb. He follows this up with a third pick Nim Replica out of a weak pack and a fourth pick Neurok Spy that Jeremy just passed in favor of Megatog. Harvey gets another Shrieker, a Woebearer, and a Viridian Longbow to flesh out his deck in the second set of packs.


Pack Three

When I saw his first pick in the third pack, all I could do was laugh. He selected Leaden Myr over Skeleton Shard for some reason when he already has Pentavus, Myr Enforcer, Nim Replica, and numerous other Artifact men to recur with it. My only guess is that he was busy talking to Turian and just didn’t see the Skeleton Shard in the pack. What a goof. Eugene follows up his wonderful pick of Leaden Myr with a Bonesplitter and another Spy and then somehow gets a Mask of Memory fourth out of the pack with Mindslaver! Harvey gets a Myr Retriever late to go with his Oblivion Stone, as well as a