So you’re ready for something different are you?
Better buckle your seatbelt, this is gonna be a long haul.
This project began as a long-shot brainstorm over six months ago and I could never find the time to sit down and do the lackey work to make it come together. Since I’ve been on Winter Break though, I’ve had time to slowly piece it together.
Since I know you’re anxious to hear what I’m actually referring to, I’ll cut the obligatory rambling and just come out with it.
The experiment works like this. I build the packs for an entire 8-man booster draft (twenty-four packs). I then build the same set of packs again, making two copies of the exact same draft. I have my CMU cohorts sit down and draft once, and then for the second run of the same draft, I move the packs back three seats so that different people are drafting different packs even though both of the drafts are identical. The object, of course, is to see how different people draft the same exact set of packs.
One of the big decisions I had to make was how powerful the card pool would be. An influential factor here is that the people actually drafting the cards shouldn’t be able to tell that it is the exact same draft! To do this, I had to ensure that most of the rares would be gone by third or fourth pick, simply because people would catch on if the same Damping Matrix, Gate to the Aether, and Vermiculos were floating around in the late picks of the same set of packs. So most of the rares had to be good, that much was decided.
Another angle of this test was that I wanted to have lots of difficult decisions built into the packs, and lots of different possible roads for the players to travel. Needless to say, it was not easy and took me well over five hours to even get a rough draft on the packs.
Oh, I almost forgot, I said I was going to skip the rambling this time.
My bad.
Since this is already going to be incredibly lengthy, I’ll just let you email me or ask me in the forums if you have questions as to how I arrived at the packs or any other aspect of the experiment. I tried to follow common runs as much as I could, but in the end, most of the packs don’t follow them, and you have my apologies for that.
With that covered, I can introduce you to my lab rats…
Seat | Name |
1 | Dr. Jason Martel |
2 | Mike Sabatini |
3 | Dane Thomas |
4 | “Downtown” Andrew Brown |
5 | |
6 | Eugene Harvey |
7 | Jeremy Darling |
8 |
The seats were picked at random, of course. Now we’ll move onto the actual packs, so you can take a look at them and I’ll list who drafted this set of packs in each draft. Each set of three packs will also be given a letter so it can be more easily referred to later in the analysis.
The Packs
A
Draft 1 Seat 1 : Dr. Martel
Draft 2 Seat 6 : Eugene Harvey
Pack 1
Nim Shrieker
Leaden Myr
Lumengrid Warden
Tel-Jilad Exile
Vorrac Battlehorns
Wail of the Nim
Pyrite Spellbomb
Tel-Jilad Archers
Goblin Striker
Yotian Soldier
Shatter
Mourner’s Shield
Crystal Shard
Assert Authority
Solar Tide
Pack 2
Leonin Den-Guard
Thoughtcast
Consume Spirit
Battlegrowth
Dross Prowler
Clockwork Condor
Chromatic Sphere
Neurok Spy
Tree of Tales
Bonesplitter
Blinding Beam
Grab the Reins
Blinkmoth Well
Slith Strider
Megatog
Pack 3
Terror
Krark-Clan Grunt
Deconstruct
Ogre Leadfoot
Somber Hoverguard
Tel-Jilad Chosen
Vault of Whispers
Elf Replica
Dream’s Grip
Leonin Scimitar
Silver Myr
Bloodscent
Serum Tank
Rustmouth Ogre
Solemn Simulacrum
B
Draft 1 Seat 2 : Mike Sabatini
Draft 2 Seat 7 : Jeremy Darling
Pack 1
Myr Enforcer
Vulshok Berserker
Lifespark Spellbomb
Regress
Cloudpost
Fangren Hunter
Vulshok Gauntlets
Krark-Clan Shaman
Moriok Scavenger
Journey of Discovery
Irradiate
Sphere of Purity
Talisman of Impulse
One Dozen Eyes
Goblin Charbelcher
Pack 2
Goblin Replica
Annul
Wurmskin Forger
Arrest
Fists of the Anvil
Frogmite
Disciple of the Vault
Scale of Chiss-Goria
Electrostatic Bolt
Turn to Dust
Auriok Transfixer
Domineer
Slith Predator
Atog
Broodstar
Pack 3
Cobalt Golem
Nim Lasher
Neurok Familiar
Skyhunter Cub
Incite War
Inertia Bubble
Awe Strike
Soldier Replica
Consume Spirit
Spikeshot Goblin
Predator’s Strike
Relic Bane
Myr Retriever
Nim Shambler
Molder Slug
C
Draft 1 Seat 3 : Dane Thomas
Draft 2 Seat 8 : Nate Heiss
Pack 1
Wanderguard Sentry
Copper Myr
Tel-Jilad Archers
Iron Myr
Loxodon Mender
Goblin Replica
Myr Enforcer
Electrostatic Bolt
Wizard Replica
Skyhunter Patrol
Viridian Joiner
Brown Ouphe
Shrapnel Blast
Taj-Nar Swordsmith
Clockwork Dragon
Pack 2
Raise the Alarm
Necrogen Spellbomb
Molten Rain
Pewter Golem
Neurok Spy
Predator’s Strike
Vulshok Berserker
Deconstruct
Nim Replica
Nim Shrieker
Steel Wall
Lightning Greaves
Looming Hoverguard
Betrayal of Flesh
Lumengrid Augur
Pack 3
Frogmite
Shatter
Somber Hoverguard
Skyhunter Patrol
Aether Spellbomb
Moriok Scavenger
Override
Dross Scorpion
Contaminated Bond
Goblin War Wagon
Fangren Hunter
Detonate
Mask of Memory
Flayed Nim
Mindslaver
D
Draft 1 Seat 4 : Andrew Brown
Draft 2 Seat 1 : Dr. Martel
Pack 1
Gold Myr
Regress
Hematite Golem
Irradiate
Ancient Den
Yotian Soldier
Seat of the Synod
Leonin Scimitar
Disarm
Neurok Hoversail
Tel-Jilad Exile
Vulshok Battlegear
Slith Bloodletter
Thirst for Knowledge
Arc Slogger
Pack 2
Myr Adapter
Titanium Golem
Ogre Leadfoot
Vulshok Gauntlets
Wizard Replica
Skyhunter Cub
Thoughtcast
Wurmskin Forger
Groffskithur
Terror
Viridian Longbow
Auriok Bladewarden
Icy Manipulator
Trolls of Tel-Jilad
Empyrial Plate
Pack 3
Silver Myr
Journey of Discovery
Neurok Spy
Aether Spellbomb
Lumengrid Warden
Consume Spirit
Dross Prowler
Shatter
Vulshok Berserker
Pyrite Spellbomb
Electrostatic Bolt
Psychic Membrane
Rustspore Ram
Stalking Stones
Promise of Power
E
Draft 1 Seat 5 : Mike Turian
Draft 2 Seat 2 : Mike Sabatini
Pack 1
Arrest
Wanderguard Sentry
Iron Myr
Krark-Clan Grunt
Pyrite Spellbomb
Razor Barrier
Chimney Imp
Sunbeam Spellbomb
Tel-Jilad Chosen
Tooth of Chiss-Goria
Fists of the Anvil
Isochron Scepter
Tempest of Light
Loxodon Warhammer
Pentavus
Pack 2
Copper Myr
Soldier Replica
Annul
Alpha Myr
Tel-Jilad Archers
Leonin Elder
Welding Jar
Battlegrowth
Spikeshot Goblin
Leonin Den-Guard
Malachite Golem
Fractured Loyalty
Soul Nova
Dragon Blood
Leonin Abunas
Pack 3
Wrench Mind
Elf Replica
Bonesplitter
Krark-Clan Shaman
Cobalt Golem
Blinding Beam
Slagwurm Armor
Fangren Hunter
Auriok Transfixer
Regress
Turn to Dust
Wall of Blood
One Dozen Eyes
Roar of the Kha
Glissa Sunseeker
F
Draft 1 Seat 6 : Eugene Harvey
Draft 2 Seat 3 : Dane Thomas
Pack 1
Auriok Transfixer
Omega Myr
Disciple of the Vault
Awe Strike
Tel-Jilad Exile
Goblin Replica
Vulshok Berserker
Vorrac Battlehorns
Nim Replica
Blinding Beam
Mirror Golem
Looming Hoverguard
Leonin Skyhunter
Oblivion Stone
Pack 2
Goblin War Wagon
Scale of Chiss-Goria
Silver Myr
Wail of the Nim
Thoughtcast
Clockwork Condor
Leonin Elder
Necrogen Spellbomb
Dross Scorpion
Predator’s Strike
Molten Rain
Fireshrieker
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Altar’s Light
Mesmeric Orb
Pack 3
Goblin Replica
Frogmite
Wanderguard Sentry
Galvanic Key
Deconstruct
Razor Barrier
Leaden Myr
Incite War
Aether Spellbomb
Raise the Alarm
Wizard Replica
Nuisance Engine
Fabricate
Skeleton Shard
Temporal Cascade
G
Draft 1 Seat 7 : Jeremy Darling
Draft 2 Seat 4 : Andrew Brown
Pack 1
Titanium Golem
Dross Prowler
Silver Myr
Inertia Bubble
Nim Lasher
Pewter Golem
Tel-Jilad Chosen
Shatter
Aether Spellbomb
Skyhunter Cub
Clockwork Beetle
Granite Shard
Relic Bane
Cathodion
Soul Foundry
Pack 2
Hematite Golem
Disciple of the Vault
Viridian Longbow
Somber Hoverguard
Goblin Replica
Krark-Clan Grunt
Leonin Elder
Lifespark Spellbomb
Pyrite Spellbomb
Auriok Transfixer
Disarm
Goblin Dirigible
Heartwood Shard
Rustmouth Ogre
Troll Ascetic
Pack 3
Leonin Scimitar
Regress
Chromatic Sphere
Consume Spirit
Viridian Joiner
Clockwork Condor
Predator’s Strike
Arrest
Wizard Replica
Electrostatic Bolt
Myr Enforcer
Banshee’s Blade
Flayed Nim
Detonate
Rule of Law
H
Draft 1 Seat 8 : Nate Heiss
Draft 2 Seat 5 : Mike Turian
Pack 1
Wizard Replica
Scale of Chiss-Goria
Wanderguard Sentry
Steel Wall
Irradiate
Vulshok Gauntlets
Tel-Jilad Archers
Yotian Soldier
Welding Jar
Neurok Spy
Terror
Mask of Memory
Talisman of Progress
Slith Strider
Living Hive
Pack 2
Goblin Replica
Wrench Mind
Skyhunter Patrol
Ogre Leadfoot
Nim Replica
Annul
Omega Myr
Tel-Jilad Exile
Sunbeam Spellbomb
Override
Malachite Golem
Woebearer
Leonin Bladetrap
Trolls of Tel-Jilad
Damping Matrix
Pack 3
Goblin Striker
Neurok Hoversail
Frogmite
Razor Barrier
Wurmskin Forger
Alpha Myr
Loxodon Mender
Cobalt Golem
Contaminated Bond
Chimney Imp
Soldier Replica
Looming Hoverguard
Serum Tank
Grab the Reins
Mass Hysteria
My plan is to go over each of the drafts separately, and point out the difficult picks and how the players reacted to them. After that, I will show charts of how two players drafted the same set of packs, and where their picks diverged. I’ll also do this in seat order to make it easier to follow, since I know it’s tough to flip back between picks and packs. Unfortunately I know of no better way to convey the information, since it’s really hard to trace the packs for every pick.
Draft One
A: Jason Martel
Pack One
Immediately after busting his first pack, the good doctor is faced with a decision that makes him yell:”I hate you, Nick.”
The decision in question is of course Solar Tide versus Crystal Shard. After sitting there for what seemed like a half an hour, Jason selected the Solar Tide and said,”I know no one is going to agree with this.”
I have to disagree with the pick made by the master of all things Chuckie Cheese, in this case, as I would certainly take the Shard here. Not only is the Shard a more powerful card, but it is also much more splashable than the Tide. ‘Nuff said.
His second pick presents the question of Tel-Jilad Archers versus Neurok Spy. Oddly enough, Jason takes the Spy, despite the fact that he just passed Crystal Shard and definitely put the guy downstream (Saby) into Blue. In most cases, I’d take Spy over Archer too, but not after I’d just passed Crystal Shard. The rest of his picks are rather unexciting as he gets Mirror Golem fourth out of a busted pack opened by Eugene Harvey and then moves into Green for Tel-Jilad Exile and Archers. His picks are rounded out by some Yotian Soldiers which he definitely likes way too much. Then again, I’m sure that’s because 1/4’s like to play in the Ball Pit.
Pack Two
The second booster presents our in-house proctologist with the classic decision of Megatog and Grab the Reins. Thankfully, Jason selects Grab. His third pick brings us to a very close call, and I’m still not sure what I’d take in his situation. The pick is Lightning Greaves versus Deconstruct and Jason ended up taking the Deconstruct. I usually am a huge fan of the Greaves in Green simply because hasted Fangren Hunters end the game rather quickly. I’d probably go with the Greaves here, but I can certainly see where Jason is coming from with the Deconstruct, as removal is always good. Jason also ends up picking a relevant Blinding Beam for the possible splash even though he is clearly G/R.
Pack Three
The first pick here is again difficult, as it is between Rustmouth Ogre and Solemn Simulacrum. I’d personally take Jens here, simply because I always want to have Blinding Beams in my Green decks, and Jason already had one. The Jens simply solidifies the splash. Jason took the Ogre, which is okay since it’s huge, but he’s already Green and has lots of monsters like Malachite Golems and Trolls of Tel-Jilad, so I really think he should go with the manafixer here.
It’s also of note that I’d be more inclined to take the Rustmouth, if Jason had already selected the Greaves since a surprise attack with it is usually devastating. Jason is lucky enough to be shipped a second copy of Grab the Reins as Nate Heiss somehow took Looming Hoverguard for his White deck (more on this later). Jason does make an excellent pick in taking Fangren Hunter over One Dozen Eyes simply because his curve is already too high. He already has Malachite Golem, Trolls of Tel-Jilad, Mirror Golem, and many others populating the top slots of his curve, and while Eyes is usually the better card, I agree with his pick here.
B: Mike Sabatini
Pack One
While Saby didn’t start the draft off as well as some of the other guys at the table, he still made a very interesting pick right off the bat. That pick was taking Myr Enforcer over One Dozen Eyes and Fangren Hunter. Personally, I’ll always take the Eyes in this spot, as it’s a great splash and a ridiculously powerful card. It’s also strictly better than Fangren Hunter, if you aren’t already overloaded with top-end fatties. After getting shipped the Crystal Shard by Jason, Sab proceeds along the correct path and goes with his first-pick into the Affinity deck.
He is offered another shot at Green with a Tel-Jilad Archers, and opts for Wizard Replica instead. The pack rounds out with another Wizard and a couple of Myr, not too exciting.
Pack Two
Well apparently Mike has some sort of foresight, because he was able to get himself into the proper deck for his pack two open of Broodstar. He is then shipped a very happy Looming Hoverguard which he correctly takes over Lumengrid Augur. He takes Terror third out of a pack that was just drained of Empyrial Plate and Icy Manipulator by Andrew Brown and Dane Thomas, and then gets a Mesmeric Orb and Goblin Dirigible in the middle picks.
Pack Three
This pack just makes me all giddy inside, because I purposely threw the complete hook by having Broodstar in pack two and Molder Slug in pack three. This has actually happened to me twice in real drafts, and so I figured I’d pass along the favor here. Saby is visibly angry at opening the Slug and being far too entrenched in the Affinity deck to play it. After some yelling he slams it in his pile, correctly hate drafting it, since it is the absolute nuts against his Artifact-filled construction. I can’t say that I’d do any different in this case, and hate drafting is certainly correct in these situations no matter what KK may try to tell you. Mike goes on to pick up a Somber Hoverguard over Solemn Simulacrum (correct for his deck), Myr Enforcer, and some other average cards to fill out his deck.
C: Dane Thomas
Pack One
Dane opens a close call pack, featuring Shrapnel Blast and Clockwork Dragon. I don’t know about you, but I’ve never been overly happy to have the clunky Dragon in my deck, and most of the time I’ve cast the Blast, I’ve won. Five damage for two mana is just absolutely ridiculous. I have to go with the Blast here, and Dane agrees, as he selects it as his first pick. Dane’s next pick is interesting as he takes Vulshok Berserker over the One Dozen Eyes and Fangren Hunter that Saby had passed up on. Personally I’d take the Eyes here, as both Eyes and Shrapnel Blast are good splash candidates and keep your colors open. Taking the Berserker and sticking to Red is also a fine decision.
The next pick offers Terror versus Tel-Jilad Archers, and Dane selects the Terror. I agree with this on all fronts, since he already gave up Green by passing the Fangren and Eyes earlier. His next pick, however, puzzles me a bit as he takes Relic Bane over Granite Shard. Don’t get me wrong, I like Relic Bane just as much as the next guy, and definitely want it in my deck if I’m playing Black, but it just seems like a contradiction when you look at the rest of his picks. He took a Berserker over the much more powerful One Dozen Eyes, which you would only do if you wanted to keep your options open as long as possible. Now he’s going and committing to Black with the Bane, when he really should just take the Shard and be looking to splash Terror. Just my two cents on the matter.
Pack Two
Dane starts this pack off with a very obvious Betrayal of Flesh. He is then shipped and even more obvious pick of Empyrial Plate when Andrew Brown selects Icy Manipulator over it. With the third pick comes Leonin Abunas, which only solidifies my claim earlier about taking the Granite Shard over Relic Bane. Most of the best decks in this format in my experience have been composed of a base color and two small splashes. The double-splash is definitely in order for Dane in this draft.
Pack Three
Mr. Thomas opens a whale of a decision in pack three. In his colors alone, the pack contains Detonate, Shatter, Mask of Memory and Mindslaver. I’ve already stated how I feel about Mindslaver in another article, though it has gone down slightly in my ranking. I’d still take it over Shatter though, and unfortunately, Dane picks the Shatter. The Mask simply isn’t that good in his deck since he doesn’t have lots of evasion. Not a horrible pick by any means, and especially good in a B/R deck, but I’d rather have the Slave.
Dane also makes a somewhat odd pick of taking a second Terror over Solemn Simulacrum when Black has many ways of recurring the Invitational card. It’s still an okay pick, but I really like having Jens to go with my Moriok Scavengers. Dane also ends up hate drafting Deconstruct, One Dozen Eyes, and a Soldier Replica in his middle picks of this pack before picking up Flayed Nim and Relic Bane late.
D: Andrew Brown
Pack One
Brown starts off by selecting Arc Slogger over Vulshok Battlegear, which is certainly correct. Second pick he passes on the Clockwork Dragon that Dane just cracked for an Electrostatic Bolt, which I also have to agree with. At this point, Brown picks up the ball and moves into Green when he is shipped the pack still containing One Dozen Eyes and Fangren Hunter. His next two picks are Archers followed by more Green men and Granite Shard and his deck is looking spectacular after the first pack.
Pack Two
The second pack brings with it a very difficult decision: Icy Manipulator versus Empyrial Plate. Brown makes the correct pick here and takes the Icy, since he already has two Tel-Jilad Archers and a Chosen, none of which can be equipped by the monstrous piece of weaponry. Andy is the lucky recipient of a second-pick Spikeshot Goblin when Mike Turian opts for an Archers for his G/B build. He is then shipped a fourth pick Rustmouth Ogre out of Jeremy Darling’s powerful second pack. Solid creatures like Berserker, Goblin Replica, and Ogre Leadfoot round out the second set of packs.
Pack Three
Brown takes Electrostatic Bolt number two correctly over Shatter first pick, and then Mindslaver over Detonate and Mask of Memory (see Empyrial Plate above), which we all know I agree with. Third pick brings a Predator’s Strike and then the Jens that nobody seemed to want for some reason arrives fourth. Brown does take the Jens over Deconstruct though, which is slightly questionable. Brown gets another Chosen and Predator’s Strike to round out the last set of packs, and arrives at what I consider to be a very solid deck.
E: Mike Turian
Pack One
The Potato cracks a doozy of an opening pack, presenting him with the choice of Loxodon Warhammer and Pentavus. Mike takes the Warhammer and I have to agree with that. I have seen many people take Pentavus in this situation, and while Pentavus is clearly a bomb, I’m never going to take it over Warhammer. Turian makes a strange pick second by taking Slith Bloodletter over the more versatile Vulshok Battlegear. Having too much heavy Equipment is certainly a bad thing, but it’s only the second pick of the draft, and Mike is making a very clear statement by taking the Bloodletter here. He wants to be the Black drafter. Mike gets the Clockwork Dragon third, followed by the Fangren Hunter and Living Hive that Brown took One Dozen Eyes and Tel-Jilad Archer over respectively. Turian finishes up with a Moriok Scavenger, Irradiate, and a couple of Myr.
Pack Two
Mike busts a mediocre pack with Tel-Jilad Archers and Spikeshot being the standouts. Clearly he takes the Archer and ships the Spikeshot to Brown.
Mike is kind of in a tight spot here, since he isn’t aware that Brown is in Green when receiving such a late Fangren Hunter. The fact of the matter is that Brown was picking better Green cards over the ones that Mike got, but Mike is probably going to get hosed in pack three, when the packs are less likely to be flooded with good Green cards in the late picks. This is partially because Dr. Martell moved into Green after taking Spy over Archers. Anyway, back to Mike’s second pack.
Mike gets a Predator’s Strike second, and is proud to look in the third pick and find a Troll Ascetic waiting for him. This is followed by a Trolls of Tel-Jilad and another Predator’s Strike to finish up the booster.
Pack Three
It only takes Turian five seconds to slam his Glissa Sunseeker, when he opens his pack. Luckily he was shipped all of that Green late, or he’d probably have to ship it along. He is also happy to see a second pick Promise of Power waiting for him out of Brown’s pack, and a Fangren Hunter out of Dane’s when Brown takes Mindslaver over it. Mike gets a Deconstruct fifth when Brown takes Jens over it. He finishes up with a Nim Shambler, Nuisance Engine, and Neurok Hoversail.
F: Eugene Harvey
Pack One
Euge opens a busted pack featuring Oblivion Stone in the forefront. Obviously he takes it, passing Jeremy a Looming Hoverguard. Harvey is practically falling out of his chair laughing in his second pick when he sees the Pentavus that Turian ships. The third pick, however, is a huge letdown, as Eugene takes Leonin Scimitar over Vulshok Battlegear. While I’m not a huge fan of the Gear, I certainly think it is better than the Scimitar. Eugene then takes Myr Enforcer over Skyhunter Patrol and Tel-Jilad Archers, showing a preference for Affinity, and U/B in particular. Not something I would do, but I can again see where he’s coming from. My suspicions are confirmed when Harvey takes Irradiate next followed by Nim Shrieker.
Pack Two
Eugene opens a terrible second pack and takes Fireshrieker first. He passes along the Troll Ascetic to Turian with his second pick, in favor of Pyrite Spellbomb. He follows this up with a third pick Nim Replica out of a weak pack and a fourth pick Neurok Spy that Jeremy just passed in favor of Megatog. Harvey gets another Shrieker, a Woebearer, and a Viridian Longbow to flesh out his deck in the second set of packs.
Pack Three
When I saw his first pick in the third pack, all I could do was laugh. He selected Leaden Myr over Skeleton Shard for some reason when he already has Pentavus, Myr Enforcer, Nim Replica, and numerous other Artifact men to recur with it. My only guess is that he was busy talking to Turian and just didn’t see the Skeleton Shard in the pack. What a goof. Eugene follows up his wonderful pick of Leaden Myr with a Bonesplitter and another Spy and then somehow gets a Mask of Memory fourth out of the pack with Mindslaver! Harvey gets a Myr Retriever late to go with his Oblivion Stone, as well as a