Trading card games are unlike gambling card games like poker. There is zero possibility of throwing back your terrible hand for a fresh one in poker. In Magic the Gathering, however, we have this golden opportunity to do so. In fact, I would put it this way. If you play Magic, you will inevitably mulligan. The biggest and most obvious question here, of course, is when do you mulligan? In this article, I will lay out my own methods of mulliganning to further help you make much better decisions on your next game.
Mulligan a hand containing 6 lands, 1 spell (Limited games 90 %, Constructed 60 %)
You have probably seen this line many times in different articles and websites, but this is a basic one that I have to reinforce. Many players repeat this mistake over and over again, without knowing why they lost their match. They might had played their game flawlessly, maximizing every single point of damage to his opponent or minimizing every single point of damage possible dealt to himself, but still the game was taken by his opponent. Why? Isn’t that play skill is the most important factor of the game? Yes, definitely. But I prefer to state that play skill never merely applies to play out what you drew, instead it is about sideboarding and mulliganning appropriately as well. I’m stating this out because many players are still not aware of the game they are playing, especially Limited.
You see, the reason you mulligan the hand away here is simple. The hand is heavy on lands, which also means you’re light on gas. I am not the type who provides you with a chart and tells you about the percentages, because I never believes those charts. Instead, I believe that common sense is what we need to make decisions like this.
If you were to keep this hand, thinking of the next few cards that you’ll be drawing. Let’s just predict that in the next five cards, you should be able to draw 2 more lands and 3 spells – since you have a heavy land hand, you should be drawing more threats then lands. Despite drawing 3 nonland cards, it adds up to a total of 8 lands, and 4 spells in the course of 5 turns. Let’s just expand the game for another 5 turns. I would again say you draw another 2 lands, 3 spells. In the end of turn 10, you have a exact amount of 10 lands, 8 spells and probably not winning. You might be lucky to draw 4 spells and a land in the process, but you should know the odds purely based on common sense.
I also have a philosophy in Limited which I’d like to expose here. If you ever draw your 7th or 8th land in the game, you’re essentially drawing blanks. Basically, you are virtually skipping your draw step. Unless you have specific cards designed to take advantage of them (which doesn’t happen that frequently), you can never do anything with those extra lands, though you might seem to have an advantage of having more “cards”. All you need is your sixth or seventh land in the game, and that’s probably enough for the rest of your Limited game. It means if you keeps a 6 land, 1 spell hand, any land that you will draw is like not drawing a card. Without further beating this horse into the ground, those are the reasons why I mulligan 6 land, 1 spell hands.
There’s a percentage given up there about Limited and Constructed games. I mulligan 90% of the time in Limited if I have that hand. The other 10% are some exceptional cases. If my grip has 6 lands and the remaining card is a bomb like Kumano or Meloku, I would be keeping it. My reasoning is that those cards have the capability to win games solely on their own, and it’s very fortunate to draw them since your deck usually won’t have too many bombs to draw. In Constructed, however, I have a slight different point of view. I tend to play control decks all the time, so I’m very calculative about cards. Since Constructed allows you to play with better cards and longer games if you are playing control deck, I would say I keep 6 land hands 40% of the time. This works well, especially if you’re in a Mono-Blue Control matchup where lands are the most important card of the whole game. Otherwise, it deserves a mulligan 60 % of the time and more with certain decks.
Mulligan hands containing 5 lands, 2 spells (Limited 50 %, Constructed 50 %)
The difference between a 5 land hand and a 6 land hand is not much difference, so why do the percentages differ so much? It’s because I can’t provide you a 99% appropriate decision here, as 2 spells and 1 spell makes a huge difference in your game, and no one on Earth likes to take a trip to Paris. In this case, you have much more space to maneuver. The key here is the same as the 6 land hand; what is the quality of those 2 spells? If my grip have a Glacial Ray and a Cage of Hands, I keep that for sure. Even if it’s a decent removal spell with a decent creature, I would still probably keep it. If it’s a decent two-mana and three-mana creature, I keep that as well. One of the important factors here is about figuring out the tempo of your game. If you had those hands like I mentioned, you are still in a good shape to battle the game without losing too much tempo.
After explaining hands that I do keep, it’s time to let you know hands that deserves a mulligan. Hands with a five-mana creature and a combat trick (Blessed Breath, Serpent Skin, Kodama’s Might, Consuming Vortex, etc) deserves a mulligan. Hands with a decent removal and a combat card should be thrown away as well. Combat tricks are one of those cards I hate the most in my draft deck. They always makes me feel like I’ve had a virtual mulligan if I don’t have enough creatures to utilize it. Try not too play too many pure tricks in your deck. 2-3 is the correct number. Other than that, you should have not much problem keeping 5 land hands. Note that this is my personal opinion, if dislike 5 land hands too much, it is still fine to mulligan to a better hand. Again, it depends on what two spells you are holding.
About Constructed – it’s harder to give a good overall strategy because there are so many types of decks out there. Regardless, it is almost the same as with Limited. If the 2 cards are a good threat, keep it. Otherwise, you should head for a fresh hand. Accelerators, which exist in almost every good deck in the format, is more important than quality and expensive cards in some specific matchups, so you must remain flexible with your mulligan strategy each time, because each game you play differs.
Mulligan hand containing 1 land, 6 spells (Limited 99.999%, Constructed 90% )
This is no different than a 6 land, 1 spell hand. It is an obvious mulligan choice. I don’t care how many land your deck has, as long as you don’t hit the right number in your hand, it doesn’t matter at all. This hand is rather more risky than rewarding. If you ever miss your 3rd and 4th land drop, you should know you’re not winning the game. In Limited, you don’t have many cards that force you to consider this type of hand. Thus, I mulligan a 1 land hand all the time in Limited.
In Constructed, 1 land hands can be kept if you have a Birds of Paradise and a Sakura-Tribe Elder in hand or a hand with Sensei’s Divining Top and a Sakura-Tribe Elder/ cheap acclerators. Other then that, I don’t see many hands you can keep.
I found out that some players might have a different decision based on playing first or drawing first. For me, it doesn’t makes much difference. If you have a 1 land hand, it sounds like you have a better chance if you’re drawing first to peel lands than playing first. Now, this is what I call a “trap” you set for yourself because of one extra card that you will probably be discarding after few turns anyway because you aren’t terribly likely to peel land after land from the top of your deck so you can hit your drops. Believe me, whether you’re playing or drawing first, it doesn’t matter on this one. The right move is a mulligan.
Mulligan hands that don’t have the potential to win the game (Limited 50 %, Constructed 50 %)
When you draw your seven cards, you’ll look at the number of spells and lands. After you have figured out they are present in the proper numbers, it is time to analyze the hand’s potential of winning the game. Ask yourself, “Can I win with this hand?” Make sure you answer honesty and are realistic about your chances. Then, you make your choice of keeping it or throwing it away. Always make sure you give yourself plenty of time to think about it, as you have 60 seconds to think legally whether to keep or mulligan.
I’m not writing some sort of article that provokes you to always mulligan, instead I’m helping you to keep the right hand and throw away hands that can’t win you the game. A “potential” hand is something you need to practice more because this is harder that the others hands discussed, since you might have the right number of lands and spells but are missing the important part of the puzzle.
In Limited, a non-potential hand is a hand with some removal/ expensive creatures, combat tricks and the correct number of lands. As I said, maintaining the early tempo of the game is important, so hands that don’t provide cards that can be used immediately have very little potential. Throw ’em back.
Constructed, on the other hand, is much easier. You need to identify your role in the matchup and it will help you makes much better decisions on whether or not to mulligan. If you know that you are going to play the beatdown role in the G/x versus Tooth and Nail matchup, you know you need to have some early spells/creatures in action before your opponent reaches his goal. If you are G/x and face a Mono-Red LD/Sligh deck, you knew you have to be the control role. You want to keep hands that have more accelerators then threats, because once you stabilize your mana, you win regardless. Remember, role switches in a different matchup with different sideboard strategies. You have to know which role you’re playing, then analyze the capability of those cards to shape your role. Once you have done that, then it’s not hard to identify the difference between a potential and a rather terrible hand.
Mulligan hands with colored mana issues (Limited – 50 %, Constructed 80 %)
You have 4 lands in hand – 4 Mountains, a Wicked Akuba, Horobi’s Whisper and a Hearth Kami. Such a hand is never a keeper for me, because i knew the odds of drawing 2 consecutive Swamps are never good. If the hand contains 1 Swamp 3 Mountains instead, it makes things looks much better, because you probably be able to draw a Swamp within the next 4 turns easily if you have around 7-8 Swamp in your draft deck. Remember, if any hand contains a double colored mana spell like Horobi’s Whisper and you don’t have any of that particular mana, it remains a virtual “mulligan” in your hand for some time. But if you have one piece of the particular mana, you don’t have much problem keeping those hands since drawing another one is not hard to accomplish.
In Constructed, however, I do mulligan aggressively if the hand has serious mana issues. If you’re playing Tooth and Nail and your hand contains few pieces of Urza lands and some Green accelerators, it deserves a mulligan unless you have Sensei’s Divining Top in that hand. I can assure you that that hand should be mulliganed away because I plays with Tooth and Nail and I’m damn sure I have lost several games because I kept those awful hands. Sometimes, you just have to learn things the hard way before you can finally give up to the right path. If you’re playing G/B Death Cloud with only Swamps and some Green accelerators in your hand, it’s no different than the Tooth and Nail situation. Regardless, I think you still need to mulligan it away.
Mulligan potential hands in specific matchup (usually applies to Constructed – 70 %)
This reminds me of the Green mirror. The typical Green mirror match is all about Plow Under and Eternal Witness. Those are better cards than the rest of your deck can offer in a control matchup. Let’s say, you have a Eternal Witness, Eternal Witness, Plow Under and 4 land. That hand is very good against Mono-Blue, because you have the time to draw your cards slowly as they cant stop you from casting spells, they just trade spells one for one with you, so the one who gains more card advantage basically wins the game.
In Green mirror however, it is such a horrible hand to keep. You have no accelerators, and Wtiness is basically doing nothing until you draw a Kodama’s Reach or Sakura-Tribe Elder. It is dangerous to keep hands without accelerators in the Green mirror because speed matters the most in this matchup. If you don’t have accelerators to cast a turn 3 or turn 4 Plow Under, you’re basically losing the game.
Why? Because your opponent likely will be able to cast a Plow Under on those desired turn, then follow up with another one if they are lucky enough to draw 2 copies, or they can just bring it back with Witness and Plow Under again on the next turn. At worst, they can follow up with a fat creature, and you are still not winning the game with an empty graveyard with 2 Eternal Witness and Plow Under sitting in your hand. In other words, mulligan it.
You have to play your deck against a variety of good decks in the environment to learn matchups, and doing this will slowly sharpen your skill in mulliganing appropriately.
These six situations illustrate the possibility of taking a mulligan whenever you see any hand described above. I used to be very stingy on cards in the past because I think that card advantage is the most essential factor to win, but as I began to understand the game a step further, I believe that Quality is the key here rather then quantity.
In Invitational, I bid notoriously high on a powerful deck during the Auction of the People. I only have 5 cards , 22 life to start with, and there were people who had abnormal hand size and life as high as 8 cards , 25 life. I ended up 3-0 in that format simply because my deck was powerful, despite the fact that I started with 2 fewer cards. The deck advantage was so great that I managed to post good results in spite of the fact that I had to mulligan twice at the start of each game. It’s not that I’m good in Magic at all, it’s just because the deck had what it took to win. I think this is probably the best example that illustrates the importance of Quality I can give you.
I have an interesting mulligan story of mine to share with you here today. Recently, I played in a local Block Constructed GPT and made Top 8. I won my quarters, and proceeded to play the semis. We split the first 2 games. My opponent was playing a B/G control while I’m was playing the CMU G/W/u control. In the deciding game, I got a unexciting hand and I decided to mulligan it. The 6 cards had 1 land. Go to 5 cards. No lands. Go to 4 cards. At that point, the audience was expecting me to lose that game, since 4 cards is pretty much an uphill battle against an opponent who kept his 7 card hand and to make things worse, I’m on the play. Guess what those 4 cards were? Land, land, Sakura-Tribe Elder and Kodama’s Reach. Of course, one of the lands was a Forest.
To make things worse, my opponent cast a turn 3 Nezumi Shortfang to make short work of my four-card hand. I somehow managed to drew a Time of Need and decided to tutor for a Meloku, as I knew that was the only card that could create a miracle for me at that point, and I was able to kept my last card in hand, a Meloku, and cast it. She survived for a turn before my opponent cast an identical twin a turn later. I made some tokens and attacked. My opponent then tried to cast a Kodama of the North Tree to win the race, but I had drawn a Hisoka’s Defiance. I followed it up with a Time of Need for Hokori, the Dust Drinker and proceeded to won the whole match. The morale of the story is, always know what and how much you can do to still win your game, no matter what it takes. Yes, your opponent might have 10 outs against your last weapon that will carry you to victory, but you have to recognize the whole point. If your opponent has it, face it, you can’t win that game. So your only choice is to play as though your opponent doesn’t have it and you still have a small glimpse of hope to achieve victory. Of course, you have to be very careful to recognize your game plan. I recognized that only Meloku will trump over any other creatures like North Tree, Kokusho or Ink-Eyes that my opponent might be casting to match mine. So I went for it and won with my 4-card hand on the play.
Remember, your ultimate goal is always to win the game, not to keep as many cards as possible in your hand. If what you are holding is just land and useless spells, throw it back and search for something that gives you a chance at victory.