This is one of the best Standard formats ever.
Seriously, the games are so good. The decks are fun to play, there’s lots of them, and you can customize them to fit your playstyle. Plus, the metagame is
evolving week to week with no end in sight.
After Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir, we were left with basically three big winners:
● Jeskai – The most popular deck in the field, yet still posted a very winning record.
● Abzan – The second most popular deck in the field, bringing with it an even better record than Jeskai.
● U/B Control – While much less popular than the other two, its record was the best of the three.
Leading into the event, G/b Devotion had been the deck to beat, but ended up basically 50/50. Every other major archetype was below 50%. Where would the
format go from there?
One week later, GP LA had a different texture than in Honolulu. Control was absolutely massacred. Jeskai had a giant target on its forehead, leading to a
relatively poor showing. Abzan Midrange was the most popular deck by far, but also continued to perform very well. Abzan Aggro gained a lot of popularity,
although it was destined to be short-lived once the world discovered how badly it matched up against Abzan Midrange.
The talk of the weekend had been the rise of Mardu Midrange, with Brad Nelson and Valentin Mackl bringing a new breed of Mardu that caught the format by
surprise. There was also a surge of Mono-Red Aggro and G/R/x Monsters decks, including Temur and straight G/R. The surge in aggro was the biggest strike
against control decks, not to mention everyone aiming more hate at them. Meanwhile, G/R/x largely built its metagame presence on its favorable Abzan
matchup.
This brings us to this weekend, with GP Stockholm and SCG Minneapolis. Abzan Aggro all but disappeared entirely, as it was revealed to basically just be a
worse Abzan Midrange deck. Meanwhile, the entire format was gunning for Abzan Midrange, resulting in a drop in popularity. Despite this, it was still one
of the three best performing decks at each of this weekend’s events.
What this weekend was really defined by, however, was the incredible resurgence of Jesaki. Jeskai not only took both titles, it was the most prevalent deck
at the top tables of each. Its popularity was not a fluke, and with less focus on beating it, it quickly regained its position in the format.
Rounding out the new big three is Temur (and G/R). Many wondered if the archetype’s success in LA was a fluke; but after excellent showings at both
Minneapolis and Stockholm, it’s pretty clear the deck is the real deal. As long as Abzan is one of the most popular decks (and is built like current Abzan
decks are), Temur has a natural spot in the metagame.
The Mardu Midrange and Red Aggro fads died down some, but didn’t disappear entirely. The new deck of the week was Sultai self-mill, and G/b Devotion
managed to actually put up some numbers to stay in the conversation.
This is a look at the top 16 results from each of these three recent tournaments, using the usual Frank Karsten winner’s circle metagame weighting for
finish. The expected metagame is an averaging of the three events, with this week’s events worth double last week’s event.
Khans of Tarkir Standard
|
Archetype |
GP Los Angeles |
SCG Minneapolis |
GP Stockholm |
Expected Meta |
|
Abzan Mid |
34.0% |
19.1% |
17.0% |
21.2% |
|
Jeskai |
8.5% |
31.9% |
19.1% |
20.4% |
|
R/G/x |
17.0% |
23.4% |
10.6% |
17.0% |
|
Mono-Red |
19.1% |
0.0% |
10.6% |
8.1% |
|
Mardu Mid |
10.6% |
6.4% |
8.5% |
8.1% |
|
Sultai |
0.0% |
4.3% |
14.9% |
7.7% |
|
G/b Devotion |
0.0% |
0.0% |
14.9% |
6.0% |
|
Abzan Aggro |
10.6% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
2.1% |
|
Boros Aggro |
0.0% |
0.0% |
4.3% |
1.7% |
|
B/W Mid |
0.0% |
4.3% |
0.0% |
1.7% |
As you can see, the format has gone from the top 3 decks being Jeskai, Abzan, and U/B Control; to Abzan, Mono-Red, and Temur; to Abzan, Jeskai, and Temur.
What will be the next step in the Khans Standard evolution?
Let’s take a look at some of the most important decks in the format, starting with this weekend’s big winners. Hell yeah, Big Z!
Creatures (17)
Planeswalkers (2)
Lands (24)
Spells (17)
Big Z’s Jeskai deck has a number of interesting card choices. First, he not only uses Ashcloud Phoenix, which has been gaining popularity recently, he
fully embraces a return to Brimaz, King of Oreskos. In order to make room for these extra creatures, he has stripped out most of the blue from his deck,
using just a single Dig Through Time and no maindeck counters of any variety. The miser’s Gods Willing maindeck is a real nice way to spice things up and
catch people off guard.
My recommendation is to make Matej’s deck the first deck you test against this week. Jeskai may be back at the front of the conversation, but I kind of
suspect it’s going to have another big weekend before people properly adjust.
Creatures (10)
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (25)
Spells (22)
Andrew Johnson’s list, meanwhile, is very stock. Well, except for those maindeck Anger of the Gods! Not a lot of people are going to see that coming. The
Narset, Enlightened Master sideboard plan is pretty sexy too, now that you mention it…
Of course Jeskai isn’t the only deck to use this basic shell. Mardu Midrange decks already took a lot out of the Jeskai playbook, with Butcher of the Horde
instead of Mantis Rider, and Crackling Doom instead of Jeskai Charm. What if you didn’t splash blue or black though?
Creatures (11)
Planeswalkers (5)
Lands (23)
Spells (21)
Denniz Rachid’s list is basically the same core as the Jeskai and Mardu decks, but streamlined to stay two colors. Personally, I don’t think you gain
enough to give up the incredible power of those three color cards, since it’s not like your mana is bad anyway.
Of course, some go even more pure than that, bringing us to the latest rendition of red aggro:
Creatures (23)
- 3 Frenzied Goblin
- 4 Foundry Street Denizen
- 4 Akroan Crusader
- 4 Firedrinker Satyr
- 4 Goblin Rabblemaster
- 4 Monastery Swiftspear
Lands (18)
- 18 Mountain
Spells (19)
The continued popularity of this and many other Rabblemaster decks have me back on the triple Drown in Sorrow train in Abzan. This deck is explosively fast
and makes it hard to play a control deck, as you really do need sweepers and a board presence. I think this archetype is going to take another hit this
week though. The surging popularity of Anger of the Gods is bad news for it.
Of course, there’s still one place that hasn’t fully embraced Anger of the Gods yet and probably should.
Creatures (27)
- 4 Elvish Mystic
- 4 Polukranos, World Eater
- 1 Stormbreath Dragon
- 4 Boon Satyr
- 4 Rattleclaw Mystic
- 3 Heir of the Wilds
- 4 Savage Knuckleblade
- 3 Ashcloud Phoenix
Planeswalkers (1)
Lands (23)
Spells (9)
This build is largely descended from Brian Kibler’s Temur list, which I expect to be the industry standard moving forward. This should definitely be one of
the first three decks in any playtesting gauntlet this week. Notice the maindeck Ashcloud Phoenix action. That’s surely going to be the norm in the weeks
to come. It’s also worth noting the move towards Boon Satyr, rather than Courser of Kruphix. Time is showing Kibler was right on this one.
Temur is definitely behind Jeskai, but ahead of Abzan, making a rough paper-rock-scissors. Still, this is the type of format where most of the matchups are
reasonably close. Part of what makes this format so awesome though, is that the close matchups have a ton of play to them. A coin-flip is a close matchup,
but that doesn’t mean it’s skill-testing. This format, however, is definitely a skill-testing one.
As mentioned above, this weekend’s breakout deck was Sultai self-mill:
Creatures (25)
- 3 Hornet Queen
- 3 Elvish Mystic
- 4 Sylvan Caryatid
- 4 Courser of Kruphix
- 4 Satyr Wayfinder
- 1 Soul of Innistrad
- 4 Sidisi, Brood Tyrant
- 2 Sagu Mauler
Lands (24)
Spells (11)
Sidisi, Courser, and Hornet Queen aren’t new, but Sagu Mauler and Soul of Innistrad are. That’s some pretty hot tech for beating black removal decks. If
Abzan doesn’t evolve, it’s going to have some challenges with this matchup. As for the Jeskai matchup, four maindeck copies of Whip of Erebos is kind of
devastating. Jeskai is likely going to be increasing their interest in enchantment removal in the weeks to come.
You know what’s not here? Commune with the Gods and Nighthowler. Just interesting food for thought. There sure are plenty of Drown in Sorrows though…
Combining some elements of Abzan and Reanimator, with just a pinch of G/b Devotion, Sultai self-mill is all about the grind. While it had a good weekend,
it might be poised to have an even better one next weekend. Its win percentage on day 2 of the GP in Stockholm was the best in the room, suggesting the
deck is well positioned against the best decks. The percentage of players on the strategy will surely climb, so if nothing else changes, the deck is likely
to gain.
However, the other side of the coin is that people will be targeting it a little more. Granted, most of the focus is on Abzan, Jeskai, and Temur, but if
people want to beat Sultai, they can.
G/B Devotion saw an uptick this weekend, adopting some almost Sultai-like elements:
Creatures (28)
- 3 Hornet Queen
- 4 Elvish Mystic
- 4 Sylvan Caryatid
- 4 Courser of Kruphix
- 4 Satyr Wayfinder
- 4 Eidolon of Blossoms
- 2 Doomwake Giant
- 1 Pharika, God of Affliction
- 2 Brain Maggot
Lands (22)
Spells (10)
Multiple maindeck Whip of Erebos with Commune to find it? Four Arbor Colossus in the sideboard? Lukas is aware of Jeskai, respects it, and is serious about
fighting it. True G/B Devotion folds too easily to End Hostilities, but the recent trend towards more constellation-esque builds provides a lot more
resilience. I don’t think this deck is going to dominate going forward, but it is naturally good against Temur, as well as unprepared Abzan lists. This
build is particularly well suited for the current format, as far as G/B Devotion lists go, going the extra mile against Jeskai.
Finally, we come to the (sort of) best deck in the format. Abzan has performed the best overall, despite being the most popular, which makes a case for it
being the best deck. That said, people that want to can gain a solid advantage over it.
At PT Khans of Tarkir, Abzan was merely the second best deck, losing to U/B Control both head-to-head and by overall match win percentage.
Then the Abzan decks evolved and U/B Control disappeared. This time, Abzan was the most popular deck and arguably best performing, but it didn’t take home
the trophy, eventually folding to a new bad matchup, G/R/x.
Now, G/R/x has surged in popularity, as its advantage over Abzan has held. Also, a new challenger emerged, as Sultai has figured out how to beat the
default Abzan decks. Abzan has continued to do well, but the format is becoming extremely hostile towards it. For instance, at GP Stockholm, Abzan was the
most popular deck and did reasonably, but on day 2, it lost head-to-head against all the other top decks (albeit, by a small margin). Not only are Temur
and Sultai designed to beat it, the Jeskai decks have become tuned to fight Abzan. If people don’t mix up their Abzan lists, I expect a decline next week.
There is so much room to mix up the Abzan lists though!
Here are some examples of this past weekend’s Abzan lists:
Creatures (19)
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (25)
Spells (12)
Ari Lax and company’s Abzan shell has become the industry standard and with good reason. This is an extremely consistent, powerful, and resilient deck.
It’s hard to beat it more than 55% of the time, unfortunately, more and more people are tuning their decks enough to do just that.
Finally, a man after my own heart, the Tezzerator himself, Kenny Oberg:
Creatures (12)
Planeswalkers (7)
Lands (25)
Spells (16)
Kenny’s list is an update to my LA list, Read the Bones and all. His tweaks include a maindeck Liliana Vess, End Hostilities, and two Bile Blights. The
biggest place that helped supply this kind of room was the cutting of Wingmate Roc, a card that is a little worse in this variation of Abzan. I’m not sure
I’d want to cut them entirely, but if you do, I would consider Arbor Colossus (main or side) to help fight Jeskai and Temur.
I also like the one Back to Nature in the sideboard. There has been a real surge of constellation decks. With two Lilianas, it is very possible to Liliana
Vess plus one, then untap and tutor for it, then draw it with Abzan Charm or Read the Bones, and cast it in the same turn.
What is next week going to look like? I think we’re going to continue to see a cycling through of the tier 1.5 strategies, with savvy players taking
advantage of the strategies not being targeted by most players. Abzan will continue to do well, and likely, so will Jeskai. I think next week may be a bit
of a rocky one for Temur. Now that it’s clear that Temur is for real and worthy of hate, it’s looking like SCG Oakland is going to be full of more
Murderous Cuts and more Arbor Colossus than ever before.
Of course, with Abzan, Jeskai, and Temur making up almost 60% of the format, it might just be time for a return of control…