The Big Weekend

I recently realized that there’s a good chance more players will be playing Standard this weekend than any other weekend ever.

I’ll be playing at the StarCityGames.com Invitational in Atlanta, where hundreds of players will also play in the Standard Open, but there’s one of those more weeks than not. What makes this weekend so special is that this is the first weekend that will have WMCQs in every eligible country.

A lot of people have messaged me to ask about the decks they’re working on for their WMCQs or to find out what I think they should play. I’m not as generous with my time as Cedric Phillips and often don’t have a chance to help them out much, so don’t feel like you’re missing out if you haven’t asked or like it’s anything personal if I haven’t answered you. Hopefully, I can make up for that now. Rather than answer each of you individually, I can tell you what I think about what you should play here.

The first level is still G/W/B Reanimator. It no longer has a complete stranglehold on the format—after all, it only won half of the Standard Opens this past weekend, but I guess that’s still pretty good.

When I wrote about beating Reanimator, a lot of people commented and said their deck was good against it. Well, it all depends on the Reanimator deck you’re playing against. Reanimator is fundamentally the most powerful strategy in the format, and I’m confident of this both because it wins the most and because I know that I can beat basically any strategy with it if I tune it to do so.

The problem is that everyone is tuning their decks to fight Reanimator, which means that it’s harder to beat the people you’re not specifically working to beat. If each opponent requires specific attention, it’s easy for there to be so many opponents that you can’t be prepared for all of them.

What’s worse, as far as I can tell, is that the cards that make you best in the mirror are the worst cards against everyone else. There isn’t a set 75 of Reanimator because there can’t be—if there was, the next week would be all about leveling that 75 with 70 of the same cards and five cards that are designed to attack it. We saw the exact same pattern with Jund in Modern. When a deck is the clear target, it has to keep evolving to stay ahead of everyone who’s aiming for it.

What this means is that I would recommend playing G/W/B Reanimator this weekend if you have been playing it a lot, have a very clear idea of how you’re going to beat everyone who’s hating you, and think you have the balance just right for your local metagame. I would also recommend it if you don’t know the format at all and simply want to play the best deck. I would not recommend playing Reanimator if you feel comfortable and confident with something else. It is good, but it is no longer head and shoulders above everything else, and I believe it’s very easy for an individual player to have a better edge with a deck they know.

While the Standard Opens last weekend were won by G/W/B Reanimator and Naya Blitz, well-known decks we’ve seen before and expect (going into the weekend, I knew that my first priority was to beat Reanimator and that my second priority was to beat aggressive decks, especially those with Burning-Tree Emissary), so that won’t shake things up much. However, a Turbo Fog deck finished second in the Magic Online PTQ on Friday.

Turbo Fog

BReal2

2nd Place at Pro Tour Qualifier on 03-31-2013

Standard

Creatures (5)

Planeswalkers (7)

Lands (24)

Spells (24)

Sideboard

This is a new development, and people will react. The trick is to figure out how.

First of all, what’s going on here? Why did this deck do well?

Well, I wasn’t surprised when I heard someone had finally gotten around to winning with Fogs. After all, as I mentioned, I wanted to beat Reanimator and aggro as my first and second priorities; my third priority was to beat midrange, and control was only an afterthought.

That means almost everyone I was worried about was just attacking with creatures and Sphinx’s Revelation could go over most of them. Three Witchbane Orbs in the sideboard gives Turbo Fog a solid chance against an unprepared Jund opponent. It has a hard time with Esper Control, but that deck was at such a low that it barely mattered and the Esper that did exist may not have even been a real threat.

Simon Goertzen made Top 8 of a Magic Online PTQ and John Rojas made Top 8 of a Standard Open with this Esper Control deck:

Esper Control

John Rojas

7th Place at Star City Games Standard Open on 03-31-2013

Standard

Creatures (7)

Planeswalkers (4)

4 Sorin, Lord of Innistrad

Lands (28)

Spells (21)

Sideboard

I can imagine Turbo Fog beating this deck since it only has two counterspells, even though it has Nephalia Drownyard. If Turbo Fog has even a slight chance against Esper, that’s pretty impressive.

So that’s why it did well: it found the right moment in the metagame. But what happens from here? Well, I imagine most people will think about making sure they have some kind of plan against Turbo Fog, at least in their sideboard. Hellrider and Searing Spear might see a little more play in decks that are on the fence about playing them. People might add an extra Obzedat, Ghost Council to their sideboard (speaking of, in my experience, Bant has been horrible at dealing with Obzedat).

This might encourage people to try other Bant Control strategies and encourage others to play other control strategies to beat them.

In short, everything about Turbo Fog doing well should shift the metagame more toward control decks. Of course, this means I think playing something that is close to a copy of that deck probably isn’t a great choice this weekend, but that fact itself means people shouldn’t react to it much, which, in turn, would make it an acceptable choice if everything stays as is. Honestly, though, after watching Michael Jacob play against four U/W/R Flash opponents in a row in a Daily Event just before writing this, I don’t think it looks like a good time to be Fogging this weekend.

Speaking of U/W/R Flash, that is the deck Fog lost to in the PTQ, so I expect a slight resurgence of it.

U/W/R Flash

_VFS_

1st Place at Pro Tour Qualifier on 03-31-2013

Standard

Creatures (11)

Lands (26)

Spells (24)

Sideboard

The most notable innovation, which certainly contributed to its success if it faced any Reanimator opponents, was the substantial commitment to Clone in the sideboard. Note that Clone is played over any direct graveyard hate at all—the plan is to let them get their guy and then copy it, which works wonderfully if that guy is an Angel of Serenity. It’s not as good if the guy is Craterhoof Behemoth, but honestly, I probably would have sided out Craterhoof Behemoth in this matchup anyway, especially if I knew that my opponent had three Izzet Staticasters that would probably make it difficult for me to build a lethal Behemoth.

If this becomes the industry standard, which wouldn’t surprise me—Clone is excellent since the deck incidentally needed a Geist of Saint Traft answer anyway—it might be time for Reanimator players to consider switching back to Human Reanimator. That Clone doesn’t do them much good if they’re dead.

For the most part, the rest of the Top 8s this past weekend looked pretty normal to me. Aaron Leblanc’s Naya Blitz deck is pretty standard, though it’s worth noting the dedicating in his sideboard to getting around Thragtusk with both Gruul Charm and Pacifism. The next exciting deck from last weekend finished just outside of the Top 8 in ninth place at Sunday’s Open.

G/W Blink

Yaco Zaragoza

9th Place at Star City Games Standard Open on 03-31-2013

Standard

Creatures (25)

Planeswalkers (1)

1 Garruk, Primal Hunter

Lands (23)

Spells (11)

Yaco’s deck plays many cards we see a lot of in this format but combines them with Conjurer’s Closet and Cloudshift. The most significant element of this deck is simply its dedication to Acidic Slime, a card we saw a lot of months ago that had been taking a break from Standard. It’s back in a pretty big way now, both in this deck and in others. I expect people to continue to look for homes for it because it’s been successful as a tool against control and Reanimator and also answers the enchantments that few people can remove from play that have been turning up occasionally, like Assemble the Legion.

So, let’s get to the point. What does all this mean I think you should play this weekend?

Well, I’m still deciding, but I can certainly weigh in on the options.

The most successful decks have been G/W/B Reanimator, Naya Blitz, Jund, U/W/R Flash, Esper Control, The Aristocrats, and Bant in an order of something like that. There’s a lot of room for debate and I’m sure people will be mad at me for ignoring Naya or Jund Aggro or whatever their favorite deck is, but I’m just trying to get a starting point here.

I’ve already talked about G/W/B Reanimator. It’s good and can beat anything, but I think being prepared for the mirror costs you enough in the Naya Blitz matchup that you’re not favored. Considering everything else makes things more complicated but not particularly better.

Naya Blitz will likely be well positioned against most Reanimator opponents and obviously can beat anyone with its best draws. I think most midrange decks are going to find themselves in the same spot as Reanimator, where they can either beat Reanimator or Blitz and not both, and it is generally correct to err toward beating Reanimator. This should make it a good time to play Blitz. My primary fear is the rise of U/W/R Flash, which I think is a very difficult matchup for Blitz, so I’d avoid it, but if you think U/W/R won’t be popular in your area (say, for example, you’re playing in any tournament other than the Invitational—those players traditionally love their U/W decks), it might be a good choice.

Jund is as it’s always been. It plays powerful spells and has a plan against everyone. As mentioned, it will have trouble with Naya Blitz, and I think it’s hard to get to the point where I’d really want to play against G/W/B Reanimator. I assume you’re hoping to play against slightly slower creature decks and control decks if you play Jund, which means you’re trying to dodge the big two? That sounds like a risky place to be, but if you know that you have a configuration that gives you a good chance against one or both of them, it could be a good choice. I wouldn’t pick it up if you don’t know your plans very well though.

U/W/R Flash has been evolving, and I think the Clone innovation is a big deal. Unlike decks that have had slightly more success, it’s been able to hone in on a pretty set 75, which means it’s easy to copy a relatively well-tuned version and not feel like you’re a week behind. For some reason, I don’t feel comfortable about this deck—I think it’s a little underpowered. You’re playing good cards and doing good things, but it feels like you’re doing much more fair things than a lot of your opponents and a lot of your cards are very low impact. On the other hand, I don’t know exactly what I’d be afraid to play against. Maybe Jund, probably Esper Control.

Esper Control has a little more allure as Supreme Verdict becomes less popular and people focus on other things. The rise of Bant and U/W/R is probably very good for players who are interested in playing Esper. If you believe you have a good matchup against Reanimator, this might be a good choice, but I caution you to be sure about it and specifically to make sure that you can beat Obzedat and Acidic Slime. I’d probably have a few Witchbane Orbs.

The Aristocrats is viewed as a deck that disappeared after the Pro Tour despite its Grand Prix win. And, for the most part, it did disappear, but I think a lot of that is because people never really picked it up in the first place, possibly in part because I didn’t really champion it—why would you play it if I’m not going to when I built it? Well, the heat is off. I was afraid of hate right after the PT, but it’s no longer a deck people think much about and still attacks with a lot of the best creatures around.

Boros Reckoner was the last card I added to the deck before the PT—it’s off-plan, but I felt it was necessary to beat the red-based aggro decks that I expected to see a lot of. The format no longer requires such dedication to those matchups, so I completely support cutting them from the main, although I still think they’re a very reasonable sideboard option. I like most of The Aristocrat’s matchups, but they’re all pretty close. It’s a deck with a lot of play to it. This is another one I’d only consider if you know it very well.

Bant has a lot of forms right now—Prime Speaker, Wolf Run, Control, Fog—and I don’t really like any of them. If you really need a five-mana creature in your control deck, you can just play Obzedat. I’ve been very impressed by that card, and I don’t think Farseek is that important. There are a lot of other reasonable things you can do with two or three mana. Nephalia Drownyard is a pretty big deal, Evil Twin is obviously a little better than Clone, and I like some of the black removal. I’m not sure what the allure of Bant is exactly at this point—I guess I like Ground Seal, but really…

So for me, I think the choice is between G/W/B Reanimator, The Aristocrats, and possibly U/W/R Flash, but I don’t think it’s the same for everyone. Several weeks ago, I would have told you to just play Reanimator, and before that, I might have suggested playing Jund. But now, I think the format has evolved to the point where a lot of other decks have caught up and where the most important thing is to know your deck, know your matchups, and maybe have a bit of your own tech. The way Magic is supposed to be.

Thanks for reading,

Sam

@samuelhblack on Twitter

twich.tv/samuelhblack

(Sorry if you were hoping for an easy solution, and good luck at the WMCQ, the SCG Standard Open, or the SCG Invitational this weekend.)