Aaron Forsythe is one of my favorite Magic personalities for many
reasons. I can’t remember when I first met Aaron, but it was a long, long time ago, and he was instantly a person who impressed. As a person who
can be somewhat misanthropic, that instant feeling about someone can be fairly rare for me.
Sullivan and Forsythe, 2001 US Nationals
Aaron just says great things sometimes. Smart things. One of my favorite things he’s said was about tech in Magic (I’ve quoted it
before):
Charles Manson wants to be free. Tech doesn’t want anything.
Tech is to be distilled in basements and stored in sun-proof bottles and traded for diamonds, missiles, and real estate. Tech is to be guarded for
months, and then unleashed upon scores of hapless players in a scourge like a biochemical bomb. If tech was free, it wouldn’t damn well be tech. And
tournament Magic wouldn’t be nearly as intense.
Yes. Exactly. Yes, yes, yes.
Recently, he said something else that struck me as exactly right.
The Standard Top 8’s at #SCGPROV and #gpkrakow tell such radically different stories.
— Aaron Forsythe
(@mtgaaron) April 20, 2015
Don’t they ever.
I’m not playing in an RPTQ this coming weekend, but I am playing in the Grand Prix in
Toronto, and I can tell you, I’ve been studying the results from the top 8s of SCG
Providence since the moment they were both available online. If you haven’t seen them, they may be a shock.
First, the Top 8 of SCG Providence:
Abzan Reanimator – 1st
Mono-Red Aggro – 2nd
Sultai Reanimator – 3rd
Abzan Control – 4th, 6th, and 8th
Abzan Aggro – 5th
Jeskai Aggro – 7th
Abzan seems to clearly be the winner of the day, right?
Well, then we have this at GP Krakow:
Esper Dragons – 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th
Jeskai Tokens – 4th
U/B Dragons – 7th
Bant Midrange – 8th
Hmm. Well, Aaron is right. Those events tell two different stories. It wasn’t even as if Esper Dragons was non-existent at Providence. In 16th place, one
player played 74 of the 75 that Alexander Hayne did, and the deck got another pilot into the Top 32, but they were the only players representing for Esper
Dragons near the top of Providence. And, conversely, two Abzan decks did manage to crack the Top 32 of Krakow, so they were present as well.
How can we reconcile these two wildly different events?
Grand Prix Krakow
For everyone that was at the Pro Tour in Belgium, there were several things that were the talk of the event. First of all, the existence of three U/B
Control decks in the Top 8 of the event was noteworthy. Secondly, Martin Dang’s preying upon those control decks was a widely discussed thing (even if
some of us were strongly of the opinion that it was a good matchup).
But, thirdly, and most importantly, people took note of the finish by Channel Fireball with their Esper Dragons deck. It was hard not to. This was a
commanding performance, and it was done by one of the highest profile teams in the game. Almost no deck finished 9-1, but this deck did. The sheer volume
of players who took Esper Dragons to such a stellar performance was commonly known on Sunday, and while some may quibble about what was the best deck of
the tournament, it is clear that the best performing deck at the tournament was Esper Dragons.
From there, it wasn’t very surprising to find a ton of pros, fresh from the Pro Tour, putting the deck together for Krakow. For the players from Europe,
making another weekend trip isn’t that big of a deal. However, for the very top pros that had made the trip from overseas, staying an extra week in a hunt
for Gold, or especially Platinum, could be a very worthwhile undertaking. I know that after my finish at the event, I almost considered doing
the same thing at the very last minute. Heck, a big part of why I’m going to Grand Prix
Toronto is in pursuit of that Pro standing.
While the pros definitely knew, for everyone else, they had to put together the pieces of the puzzle from afar based on the Wizards coverage of the event.
The information was there, but it would require some searching and some connecting of the dots. Meanwhile, those in the know fell into two camps: those who
played Esper Dragons, and those who decided to stick with the ‘khans’ camp.
One of my Team Ultra Pro teammates, Ben Stark, put it this way: “Almost every pro I know ran Esper, and the ones who didn’t got crushed.”
Now, a part of this success certainly had to do with the fact that many of these players are among the best in the game, some the best in the game’s
history. Take, for example, Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa. Given the right weapon, he can be hard to beat with nearly anything, and it showed in Krakow. He fell
in the Top 8, finally eliminated by someone else wielding the same deck.
Altogether then, it seems hardly surprising that Krakow was taken down by pros wielding the best performing deck from the very recent Pro Tour, especially
given that not everyone would have thought to prepare for specifically it.
So, what happened in Providence?
SCG Providence
Whenever you’re going to try to compare and contrast events, you’re always going to be running into a number of complicating issues. Simply put, these
days, the gap between the skill of players has shrunk over the years, and this is the case both geographically and when we compare pro players to players
on the Open Series circuit. It is certainly the case, in my opinion, that the top players on the Pro Tour are better than the top players on the Open
Seires circuit, and the worst players on the Pro Tour are better than the worst players in any Open Series event. That being said, the skill level of the
players in these events has an incredible amount of overlap. The best players on the Open Series could easily compete at the Pro Tour, and the skill at
these events goes very deep.
That said, a great majority of the best players in the world playing that weekend were not in Providence, but rather either in Krakow, or taking a
break. An overseas Pro Tour is an exhausting thing, and for many pros that came back to the States, I can easily imagine a trip to an Open Series event,
even a close one, being too much to ask.
Looking at the roster in Providence, you can see some evidence of that. While die-hard Open Series fans are liable to see some names that they know,
overall, the count was a bit smaller than usual. There was Ross Merriam and Jim Davis, but many familiar names were not present, even if there were
talented players from that area like Laurence Swasey picking up some of the slack.
Again, this is in no way an indictment of that locale, but it does seem like this was a weekend when a great many players you’d be familiar with who you
might see at an Open Series event decided to take a break. Add to this the additional factor that was simultaneously plaguing the majority of players in
Krakow: Most simply didn’t realize the deck was a deck to contend with.
In lieu of the presence of Esper Dragons, we see the results. Abzan decks of all varieties triumphed with nine copies of the macro-archetype in the Top 16.
A ways below it, three copies of the macro-archetype of Jeskai were also in the Top 16, with two copies of Mono-Red Aggro to finish out the decks with
multiple representations. After that, both Temur Dragons and Esper Dragons show up to round things out, but that’s all we see of the new Big Bad at the
very top.
Here is that top-finishing version of the deck:
Creatures (5)
Planeswalkers (1)
Lands (27)
Spells (27)
Now that you probably already know this archetype, there really isn’t anything to see here of note; this deck is the same as you’d expect to see from the
deck for the most part.
What kept him from his possible Top 8?
Well, that would be this man:
Creatures (19)
Planeswalkers (2)
Lands (25)
Spells (14)
Robert Vaughn’s Abzan Control deck has several things going on that are antagonistic to an Esper Dragon opponent. First of all, Deathmist Raptor and Den
Protector are individually very potent against the deck, but in conjunction with each other, they can be quite problematic indeed. Elspeth, Sun’s Champion
is a great way to first finish off a Dragonlord Ojutai, but even though the card is weak against Silumgar, the Drifting Death, it is a potent threat in its
own right. Duress and Thoughtseize are good against Dig Through Time decks in general, and while the deck does have some dead weight (two Bile
Blight, one Dromoka’s Command, two Ultimate Price) for that matchup, it has at least seven solid cards to bring in, perhaps more.
Interestingly, Esper Dragons also lost to this man:
Creatures (13)
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (25)
Spells (19)
- 4 Thoughtseize
- 1 Ultimate Price
- 2 Read the Bones
- 4 Hero's Downfall
- 2 Bile Blight
- 1 Utter End
- 1 Murderous Cut
- 4 Abzan Charm
Sideboard
Hmm. While not nearly as unusual a build of Abzan Control as the previous list, it does have a few more things going for it. This build only runs three
cards that are dead weight, and it has a ton of card draw. In addition, 3 Elspeth, Sun’s Champion make for an important weapon, as well.
Now, all of this being said, it is certainly possible that Zack Kiihne either got unlucky or made a mistake in these two matchups. On the face of it, I can
imagine this being a matchup that Zack was actually looking forward to. That being said, even when you think
a matchup is good, you still can lose it. That is just the game of Magic.
The RPTQs and GP Toronto
So, if you’re like me, and you’re specifically looking towards these two events, either as a spectator or as a player, what can you do about this new world
of Magic that we live in? Here are the best suggestions I have:
1. Practice, practice, practice
Pick up Esper Dragons. Get a friend to pick up Esper Dragons. Have a third friend watch from one side. Have a fourth friend watch from the other side. Now,
play, play, play. Talk the choices out and figure out how to win this matchup. Control mirrors can be notoriously tricky things to win, so make sure you
are good at them.
Not only that, though. You must also play against a ton of other archetypes. The Esper Dragons list is a very powerful weapon to bring to a fight, but not
if you are dropping it on your toes and slicing them off while your opponent steps back and lets you bleed to death.
Practice
.
2a. Play this deck…
Creatures (15)
- 1 Frenzied Goblin
- 4 Foundry Street Denizen
- 2 Goblin Rabblemaster
- 4 Monastery Swiftspear
- 1 Lightning Berserker
- 3 Zurgo Bellstriker
Lands (20)
Spells (25)
2b. …or play this deck.
Creatures (17)
- 4 Foundry Street Denizen
- 2 Goblin Rabblemaster
- 4 Monastery Swiftspear
- 2 Goblin Heelcutter
- 4 Lightning Berserker
- 1 Zurgo Bellstriker
Lands (21)
- 21 Mountain
Spells (22)
- 4 Dragon Fodder
- 4 Lightning Strike
- 1 Searing Blood
- 1 Hall of Triumph
- 4 Stoke the Flames
- 4 Hordeling Outburst
- 4 Wild Slash
Sideboard
Simply put, hitting people hard with little red creatures is a great plan against a deck with twelve enters-the-battlefield tapped lands and only a small
handful of early removal. The Atarka’s Command version of the deck can be very effective at fighting against the Foul-Tongue Invocation lifegain, and
Become Immense could steal a game here or there. This deck is basically nearly preset against Esper Dragons, so you’ll probably be in good shape.
Fortunately for you, many opponents are going to be so keyed in on Esper Dragons, they might not be ready for this:
So, gather the Goblins and friends up, and strike some Dragons down!
3. Work on your brew, but work right
It’s possible your deck has a great matchup against Esper Dragons. But in addition to testing it to find out (with sideboard, folks), also make
sure you test against one or both of the red aggro decks above. It won’t do you any good to be able to beat Esper Dragons if you can’t beat the other decks
that are likely to be floating towards the top. While you should generally test all decks against everything you can, focusing on those two major
archetypes is your first thing to check. After that, you can wander down the rabbit hole of testing against other decks.
4. Solve the Deathmist Raptor puzzle
I personally haven’t figured out what the perfect fit for Deathmist Raptor is, but it seems to me there has to be something. I mean, just look at
it:
This is a card that doesn’t want to be blocked, hits hard, and is naturally resistant to removal and counterspells. Maybe SCG semifinalist Robert Vaughn
actually solved the puzzle already, but I’d need to test more to figure this out.
As for me, I’m prepping for Grand Prix Toronto, and I’m trying to do all of the
Good luck to all of you fighting it out this weekend. Wish me luck for next weekend, and I hope to see you in Toronto!
above. It could very well be that I just stick it out with U/B Control, but I might hop ship, depending on how testing goes. As always, you can follow along with me online