Three weeks ago I solicited questions in the forums to this site. I was pleased to see some thoughtful questions percolating.
Here’s what some people had to say:
If you haven’t done one already, [I’d like to see] an article about the trends in Vintage with an analysis of the rise and fall (and sometimes rise again) of certain key archetypes and how the meta affected these changes would be really interesting. I think its always fun to read about Vintage history (or Magic history in general) once in awhile.
I do too. For that reason every year I write a “Vintage Year in Review” article that encapsulates the major trends of the metagame in narrative form.
Here they are:
2004
2005 Part 1
2005 Part 2
2006 Part 1
2006 Part 2
As my dear editor notes, these articles give me an opportunity to show off. I try to make these entertaining reads knowing that I’m part Vintage player, part Historian when I draft these up. Hopefully, they’ll provide a nice reference years from now when people are curious what Vintage was all about back then. Until then, you can enjoy them now.
Peter O (Diceman) wrote:
Where do you see this format in two years time?
Significant changes within an elemental flow of continuity. By that I mean that the format will appear on the surface very different. Different / new decks will constitute the bulk of the top tier. And yet, when examined more closely, the changes will make sense. It will appear as a logical outgrowth of the metagame we now enjoy. If we could fast forward to the metagame of January 2009, the decks would look surprising, but they would make sense given what we know now.
Here’s a trend you can take to the bank. In Vintage, there are basically no more than 3 “tier 1” decks at any given time. And if you look closely, you’ll notice that one of the three is on the ascent and another is on the wane.
For instance, in 2005, the top three decks were Control Slaver, Gifts and Stax. Stax was ascending for most of 2005 and then began a decline out of the tier 1 while Gifts began its steady ascent. In 2006, Control Slaver — after an incredibly run of dominance — began its decline out of the tier 1 at the same time that Long variants began to ascend into the tier one. It isn’t clear what the third deck in the tier 1 is right now, but it could be Ichorid.
Also note that just because a deck is descending out of the tier 1, that doesn’t mean it isn’t a great deck or incapable of winning major tournaments — it just means that the player base for that deck has narrowed. It’s my view that these once great decks will remain great and viable, but essentially niche decks. Thus, Stax and Control Slaver have had their day in the sun, but will remain small, but noticeable parts of the Vintage metagame. Breathe a sigh of relief Roland Chang and Brian Demars!
Two years from now, I foresee only one of the decks that is currently at the top of the Vintage metagame remaining there — and it will be one of the Long variants. I see Gifts beginning to decline already.
As for the broader question about the format itself, I think that we will continue to see surges of interest in Vintage that crest and recede. With the Waterburies and SCG Circuit, I think that interest in Vintage will remain pretty much the same as it has the last few years. I don’t see any doomsday scenarios in store for Vintage.
I also don’t predict any major restrictions or bannings. I don’t think that Gifts or Grim Tutor will get restricted (nor deserve restriction).
2) If you don’t like your prediction, what changes would you introduce now?
The only thing I would do is try to find new ways to generate interest in Vintage. Wizards could offer special promo prizes aimed at the Vintage crowd at the Vintage Championships. In terms of policy, the only change I would consider would be banning Yawgmoth’s Will, but that’s another article topic.
Hi Steve,
Can you share with us how you write your tournament report? I mean, it is really fantastic that you can remember the games that detailed.
Vintage games don’t go very long. My years of testing forced my teammates and I to develop an efficient short hand. I think it was Kevin Cron who first observed the absurdity of the way magic players keep track of life totals.
Look at this:
Me | You
20 | 20
19 | 19
17 | 13
12 | 12
2 | 11
L W
Now compare that to this:
Me: 20 19 17 12 2 L
You: 19 13 12 11 W
I have no freaking clue why Magic pads and life total pads are vertical instead of horizontal. I can keep track of REAMS more life totals on a single pad of paper using horizontal life totals. It’s just stupid to have vertical life pads.
My short hand is pretty simple. On each game page, I start with the life total lines. I also put a little “p” next to the name on the left to indicate who is playing and whose on the draw. I also write a little “6” next to the name to indicate if that player mulliganed.
That simple short hand keeps track of all the important information that a player needs.
Then to keep track of the play-by-play, I have a short hand. For instance, B-Storm is Brainstorm. Pearl is Mox Pearl. FoW is Force of Will.
So a short hand for a game might look like this:
T1
Delta → Island
Sea, B-Storm
T2
Pearl, Island, Tinker → DSC
It takes me just a few seconds to note down those plays every game without taking away anything from my ability to play the game. Since most games only last 2-5 turns (at most), it is really easy to take great short hand notes. If the game goes longer or if I need to stop taking notes to concentrate 100% on the game in front of me, I can just stop taking notes. The turns I’ve noted already will be enough for me to reconstruct the bulk of the game.
Codi Vinci (SCG P9 Roanoke Champion) asks:
What are your top 3 favorite decks to play right now?
Right now my favorite deck to play is a deck we’ve got in development (don’t ask, it’s still in development).
Beyond that I really enjoy playing Grim Long and Manaless Ichorid. Grim Long fills a very critical niche by delivering an incredibly swift kick to the crotch to any opponent. Empty the Warrens helps buffer previously troublesome matches ensuring that Grim Long is a serious contender.
Ichorid is an amazing deck, but has trouble facing combo decks and Leyline of the Void. Ease of play and sheer fun factor make this one of my favorite decks.
For each deck in the current metagame, what deck do you most fear playing against?
This is a good question, but everything I think of this question or try to formulate a response, I’m prompted to re-write an important essay that I’ve already written.
That article answers why you can’t just look at matchups, but you have to seriously augment that by the expected skill level of the pilot. Vroman playing Uba Stax is a great case-in-point. For that reason, I can’t actually answer your question.
When facing the best players, however:
For Grim Long, my greatest fear is playing 5c Stax. It’s definitely winnable, but it’s super annoying.
Ichorid: this deck fears nothing except for Combo.
What role will the Intuiton / AK engine have in the future of Vintage and do you feel it is still increasing in popularity or has leveled off? Will Extirpate permanently keep this engine in check?
There is no doubt that Intuition / AK is an amazing draw engine. I think that your deck definitely drew attention to the engine. Of all of the draw engines in Vintage, there is none that is better equipped and fueling and breaking Yawgmoth’s Will — not even Gifts. The drawback of Intuition / AK is graveyard vulnerability, space constraints, and the fact that neither Intuition nor Accumulated Knowledge are not as objectively strong as Gifts alone.
I don’t think it is fair to say that the draw engine has “leveled” off as it was never really in ascent. It’s a blip on the metagame radar — essentially, where people play your deck or some variant of T1T — the Italian Intuition/AK control deck. I don’t think that Extirpate will permanently keep this engine in check because it isn’t even clear to what extent Extirpate will see play. And even if Extirpate becomes a big part of the metagame, or at least a relevant part, that is no guarantee that it will remain so. On the other hand, Extirpate is one more strike against Intuition / AK.
Would a lone Vintage GP be welcomed (like the legacy one a year)? Do they decline to have Vintage GPs to prevent pros from spending their appearance and prize money on Power Nine? And what does not having a Vintage GP say about the format.
I’m sad to say it, but it’s hard to imagine how a Vintage Grand Prix would be beneficial for Vintage. The problem is that card availability problems would produce an extreme skew in what people could play. All of the competitive North American Vintage tournament with one exception (the Vintage Championship) are multi-proxy events. It would be really sad to induce people to play in a Vintage Grand Prix for which they would not be able to fully enjoy the format because of card availability constraints. It’s unreasonable to ask people to go spend several thousands dollars to play in a single Grand Prix. The joy of Vintage is the sweet card pool. A Grand Prix would be unfun for everyone. I don’t think it says anything, per se, about the format beyond the availability problem.
Alamoth asks:
What do you think Wizards could do to increase the popularity of Vintage and Legacy Magic? I’m not saying anything needs to be done. But if they wanted to bring more players into it, what could they do?
Wizards has at their disposal a plethora of options for drumming up interest in Vintage and Legacy and only uses a fraction of the options they could exercise. For Legacy, sponsoring Grand Prix’s is by far the best thing they could do. For Vintage, such a thing would be infeasible because of the limited print runs of the critical early sets.
However, for both Legacy and Vintage, Wizards has, in the last few years, set up Vintage and Legacy Championships. For the Vintage Championship, Wizards has gone ahead and commissioned an amazing piece of artwork worth quite a bit of money for the top prize. Those are things that Wizards is doing right.
However, Wizards could be much more effective at targeting Vintage players with great foils. While I’m sure that the Judges appreciate being the recipients of Yawgmoth’s Will foils, that could have been used at top 8 prize support for the Vintage Championship. Something else Wizards could do is designate local stores for Foil Promos who specifically want to hold Vintage events. That would certainly help promote grassroots support for Vintage. This isn’t something they have to do on a regular basis or enforce on everyone, but it’s something they could do irregularly to spice things up and for stores who already have an interest in holding Vintage events. As for the cost of using foils for that purpose, if you release the foils just for that event and then mass release them as a judges promo or some other promo 6-12 months later, it would be worth it — this was exactly what they did with Foil Gemstone Mines at Gencon in 2005 and it was a huge hit.
Another Wizards could do is put Legacy and Vintage back on the Magic Invitational. This will draw attention again to both formats.
One other thing they could do is hold or sponsor “Vintage” or “Legacy” Invitationals — in other words, designate 16-24 players on some basis — such as winner of StarCityGames.com tournaments and the top 8 of the Vintage Championship, and hold a “Masters” tournament with some decent amount of prizes, without having a big cash outlay. For example, giving out play sets of Foil Force of Wills and free flights would be almost incentive enough!
A thriving eternal scene is good for Magic — it demonstrates a connection to the games past and is evidence not only of its longevity but its overall health.
Wizards is full of creative people who are employed on a full time basis to come up with hundreds of cards and other innovative marketing schemes. I’m sure that someone over there could come up with some ways to spice up life for Eternal players at minimum cost if they were so inclined.
MoxLotus and RedWrathCCG ask the same question:
What “fish” deck do you think is the strongest: U/B/W Vials, U/W Rod, URBana, The Mountains Win Again, or that ManPrison deck team Ogre plays?
We see fish decks making T8’s in big tournaments but never pulling out a victory. What is stopping them from getting over that hump to win it all? And what version of Fish do you see being the strongest? Is it URBana Fish, U/W Fish, B/W Fish, or B/W/U Fish?
I think that all of these Fish variants are strong, but I think that Dave Feinstein‘s U/W Fish deck is particularly robust.
I am 100% convinced that the reason that Fish hasn’t yet won another major tournament is 99% attributable to the player base. The strongest players end up playing Pitch Long, Gifts, Stax, or Bomberman variants or something else entirely. It is the more inexperienced players that end up playing Fish. Dave Feinstein consistently performs with his Fish deck:
Creatures (14)
Lands (18)
Spells (28)
This decklist is amazing and equipped to combat Empty the Warrens with his three Echoing Truths. I think the fact that Dave hasn’t yet won a major tournament is anomalous and should be rectified in time.
Meddling Mage, Kataki, Jotun Grunt, and Null Rod all present serious threats to the opponent. Combined with Daze, Stifle, Force of Will and Misdirection and you have a recipe for success. Weak players can play this deck at a high level of proficiency and make top 8, but they are unlikely to advance into the finals of a top 8. That’s the critical problem for Fish. As the Fish player base improves (without switching to other decks) this deck will only get better.
In my view, the reason to run Black in Fish is so that you can take advantage of the awesome efficiency and synergy of Duress and Extirpate in addition to the power of Dark Confidant. Black is a powerful splash, but I think White still holds the edge — Meddling Mage is simply incredible and Jotun Grunt is a beast.
Less than Right Asks:
Can you Top 8 with something other than a Tier 1 deck? I don’t mean this as a challenge (or maybe I do). When you take the best players and give them the best decks, it seems obvious that they should make Top 8, or at least make a very good run. Is it possible for a Tier 1 player to take a Tier 2 Deck to a T8 finish?
Absolutely you can. People do it all the time. Go look at through last years SCG P9 events and you will see rogue and random decks performing at the very top levels. A consistent performance with a rogue deck will actually transform our perception of the metagame and make said rogue deck a tier 1 competitor.
Our definition of what it meant by tier 1 and tier 2 is informed by what has occurred in the past, not what is possible. If tier one player takes a “tier two” deck and does well, our understanding of that decks position in tier two may shift. We could then begin to see that it is actually a tier one deck. Case in point is Codi Vinci’s “Drain Tendrils” deck — a rogue deck choice that uses Intuition-AK draw engine + Thirst for Knowledge and only two Tendrils as the win condition. That deck isn’t by any stretch a tier one in the “Gifts, Long, Stax” view of the metagame — but if Codi continues to perform with it and win major tournaments, it will be hard to argue that that deck isn’t a tier 1 contender.
In actual reality, rogue decks have an advantage in that your opponent will have no experience in the match, giving you the edge. Tier 1 and Tier 2 is as valid as pre-season rankings in college football. They are mostly perception.
Jeff Folinas asks a Legacy Question:
Which splash of legacy Goblins is the best for any given metagame? And which is the best choice for an unknown metagame?
1) Mono-Red goblins with no splash that attacks the mana as its way to deal with Engineered Plague.
2) R/G Goblins with Krosan Grip / Tranquil Domain and Tin Street for mirror match and troublesome equipment.
3) R/W Goblins with Disenchant for generic artifact / enchantment hate and Armageddon out of the board for the control match.
4) The Black version with Cabal Therapy MD and Dranlu’s Crusade in the sideboard.
The key to design is always asking the right question. I think you’ve made more progress in formulating this question than I could make in answering it. I think that the second is probably my preferred way to play Goblins, simply because I expect lots of Boros and aggro decks with Jittes and the like coming out of the sideboard. I also think that the mana denial is too important to neglect.
For another question what build of Grim Tutor based-combo do you feel is the strongest in Vintage right now?
Five Color Grim Long is really good right now with Empty the Warrens. ETW fixes whatever problems Grim Long had in the Stax and Fish matchups. The only question is whether some hybrid Gifts-Combo deck might actually just trump you. The speeding hybridization of Gifts and Grim Tutor decks, documented and predicted in my article here suggests that Grim Long might have to face decks with more disruption but only slightly slower. These decks trump Grim Long because they only have to survive long enough to win first. I would still play Grim Long. Xantid Swarm, Regrowth, and Empty the Warrens are all incredibly powerful and justify the five-color manabase.
I know from an article you’ve previously written that you’ve replaced Tinker / DSC with ETW for a number of reasons including the facts that Empty is immune to graveyard hate and DSC is a dead draw. However, one of the greatest strengths of MD Gifts has always seemed to be that its two win conditions were immune to hate for the other (DSC immune to Stifle / graveyard hate, Tendrils immune to bounce / Swords to Plowshares). With both win conditions now being storm cards, it would seem that the deck is now weaker overall to strategies that make use of Stifle and Trickbind. Any thoughts on the loss of diversity and the significance?
This is a great question and really demonstrates the importance of taking a dynamic approach. As Empty the Warrens becomes more prevalent and as the metagame adapts (as it did to DSC), then Tinker plus Darksteel Colossus becomes the better win condition. Over the last few years, DSC went from being a universally feared threat to an easily answered threat. Stax decks piled on Duplicants and tutors for Balance. Fish decks ran cards like Stormscape Apprentice. I have no doubt that similar adjustments will take place to address the storming hordes of Goblin tokens. One such adjustment we’ve already witnessed: the rise of Echoing Truth. As more and more answers emerge for ETW and as fewer players retain solutions to Tinker Colossus, I’m more attracted to using the latter.
Secondly, running ETW over Tinker plus DSC is not necessarily a net loss in diversity. True, ETW can be Stifled and Trickbinded as Tendrils, but unlike DSC, it can’t be Chain of Vapored or Swords to Plowshared. Thus, some weaknesses that DSC faced aren’t inherent in ETW. Also, there are cards that affect Tendrils that don’t affect ETW: Children of Korlis comes to mind. Another important reason for diversity is to be able to fight cards like Meddling Mage. ETW serves that just as well as Tinker. It should also be mentioned that as Meandeck Gifts moves towards the dual Storm kill, running a full complement of Duress in the sideboard becomes a higher priority.
The one thing that interests me the most right now is winning conditions. Empty the Warrens has somewhat taken the place of Darksteel Colossus in many a storm deck… So, is Wipe Away a good card for the maindeck? Should it be sideboarded? What are the best answers to ETW?
I don’t think that Wipe Away is a very good card right now. Part of the problem is that being uncounterable doesn’t really outweigh the cards narrowness. Chain of Vapor may be counterable, but chances are you have a decent possibility to protecting it from your opponents countermagic. The fact that Chain doubles as storm generator and only costs one makes it much better.
The most common and probably best answer right now to Empty the Warrens is Echoing Truth. I’m sure more will emerge in time.
More mail next week,
Stephen