SCG Talent Search – Finding the “One Deck”: A Hobbit’s-Eye View of Standard

One does not simply walk into a StarCityGames.com Open… There are gamers there that do not sleep. The judges are ever watchful… The very air you breathe is a poisonous fume (lol?). Not with ten thousand Jittes could you do this. It is folly.

When analyzing the Standard metagame in preparation for a tournament, I feel like a hobbit whose path is set between the bedeviling machinery of Isengard and the volcanic ash of Mordor. On the right, we have Mordor (the StarCityGames.com Open); this is the living, breathing Standard tournament that recently has become the gold standard for Standard metagaming. On the left we have Isengard (Magic Online, i.e. MODO), a tower high both in terms of majesty and latency. While each of them serves the same purpose – namely, they provide a forum for competitive Magic and provide information to those of us who need to select a deck for upcoming tournaments – they supply very different information. Yet somehow, in the midst of overwhelming choices, wizards, and uncomfortably large fiery eyes, we routinely make decisions about what to play in tournaments – but how?

The process of selecting a deck and, more specifically, a list for that deck to play in an upcoming Standard tournament can be accomplished by answering a series of questions.

1) What Does the Field Look Like?

In order to even begin discussing deck choice for a major Constructed tournament, we need to know who the players are.

Let’s take a look, shall we?

*Disclaimer – due to the nature of the SCG Talent Search’s structure, data are provided for events occurring before Oct. 31, 2010, only – 98 decklists were analyzed from MODO Standard Dailies, and 32 decklists were analyzed from the SCG Open tournaments.

The data provided in the graph above is in the form of percentages – I did this so as to provide a reasonable means of comparison between the
MODO data and the SCG Open data. For example, Valakut Ramp is sitting at roughly 22% for 4-0 Standard Daily event finishes on MODO, meaning that
of

all the decks that went 4-0 between 10/23 and 10/30, approximately 22% were Valakut Ramp.

These decks can be sorted into four categories (in terms of their tournament success – examples are hyperlinked from each deck name):

Decks That Have Performed
Better Online
Than in Real Life:

Valakut Ramp


White Weenie Equipment (Quest for the Holy Relic)


Boros Aggro

Decks That Have Performed
Better In Real Life
Than Online:

RU//G Ramp (or R/U/G Titan)


Eldrazi Ramp


G/x/x Shaman/Vengevine


Pyromancer Ascension

Decks That Have Performed Fairly Well In
Both
Types of Tournaments:

U/B Control


U/W Control


Goblins


Mono-Red (no Goblin subtheme)


Elves
(few representative decks, but seemingly strong)

U/R(/w) Control
(again, few representative decks, but seemingly strong)

Decks That Popped Up Once or Twice:

Mono-Black Control
Vampires
White Weenie (Brave the Elements)

In general, it seems as though most of the hyperlinked decks listed above have the potential to be contenders in the current Standard metagame. I will add a note of caution, though, having tested White Weenie/Quest extensively in the past; it may be posting high numbers online partly because the queues are only four rounds, and it’s much easier to get passable draws with the deck over a smaller number of games than over the 9-10 rounds of a StarCityGames.com Open.*

* I fully acknowledge the poor form of discounting a Quest for the Holy Relic deck amidst an article with a Tolkien motif.

Obviously, however, some decks are achieving success more frequently than others. These “high level” contenders include Valakut Ramp, R/U/G Ramp/Control, Eldrazi Ramp, G/x/x Shaman, U/W Control, Pyromancer Ascension, and U/B Control.

This is a lot of information, though – Frodo may be feeling overwhelmed by sheer numbers. Let’s see if Treebeard can summarize what everyone is doing right now—

While Treebeard may be right in some ways, culling all of this information to get a firm grasp on the metagame is much easier with judicious application of the “Kindergarten Cop Principle” – Namely…

2) Who is Your Daddy, and What Does He Do? (
Bonus video
– highly recommended viewing)

I think that this is a healthy Standard format; in the few weeks since 2010 Champs, sixteen distinct archetypes have been successful in various
Standard tournaments. While each of these decks brings a unique “angle” or approach to the cards that it contains,
there are common threads running throughout these decks
that can be traced to determine how you can expect to be attacked.

This is the essence of the Kindergarten Cop Principle – with Austrian directness, we attempt to cut to the core of what entire groups of decks are doing.

Play and Effectively Use Jace

It should come as no surprise that many of the successful decks in Standard use the most expensive (and arguably most powerful) card in the format. In fact, three “distinct” archetypes attempt to use Jace in the same way – augmented by powerful blue spells such as Frost Titan, Mana Leak, and Preordain. These three decks, U/W, U/B, and U/R Control typically feature:

3-4 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
2-3 Jace Beleren
4 Preordain
2-3 Frost Titan (U/W control often replaces this card with Baneslayer Angel and/or Sun Titan)
4 Mana Leak

The differences between the decks revolve around the utility gained by the addition of a second color. Based on different interpretations of the metagame, the U/R deck adds cards such as Pyroclasm or Flame Slash (anticipating decks like G/x/x Shaman, Elves, and other aggressive archetypes). The U/W deck typically adds white planeswalkers (Gideon Jura, Elspeth Tirel, and/or Venser, the Sojourner) in addition to a few powerful creatures (Sun Titan, Baneslayer Angel, and Sunblast Angel are the favorites). The U/B deck adds cards including Doom Blade (usually for Titans), Consuming Vapors, Duress (great against control), and Memoricide out of the board (with Primeval Titan being a favorite target).

Currently, 20.4% of the winning decks on MODO and 15.6% of the winning decks at StarCityGames.com Opens are composed of decks that use this suite
of card advantage, planeswalkers, and situational countermagic. This means either that any deck you choose to play next week should either be able to reasonably handle such card interactions, or that you should be playing these cards yourself.

Use “Ramp” Spells to Outpace Your Opponent

Ramp strategies often have been decried as being risky because you can either draw “all ramp spells” or “all huge creatures.” Typically, such decks only work if you draw the correct mixture of land, spells, and creatures. The current ramp decks break the mold because of a number of unique spells, some of which even serve the dual purposes of “ramp” and “monster.” Two decks effectively have optimized and streamlined the “ramp” theme – Valakut Ramp and Eldrazi Ramp.

While the similarities between these decks are not as outright as those found in the U/x Control category, they remain plentiful:

4 Explore
2-4 Cultivate

4 Primeval Titan
4 Summoning Trap

Additional Non-Creature Ramp
(varies)

0-4 Khalni Heart Expedition
0-4 Growth Spasm (it can produce a turn 4 Primeval Titan by itself)
0-4 Harrow

Suite of Special Lands

Either four Valakuts, the Molten Pinnacle and a lot of Mountains, or four Eldrazi Temples, one Eye of Ugin, and 1-2 Mystifying Maze.

What is unique about “modern” Ramp decks is that one of the ramp spells is a cantrip (Explore), one of the ramp spells is a 6/6 trampler with added utility (Primeval Titan), and both decks have particular sets of land that give them a second linear strategy beyond playing large creatures. In one case, the lands constitute a threat that arguably is greater than the creatures (Valakut), and in the other case, the lands provide resilience and a potentially constant stream of Eldrazi.

In addition, Summoning Trap shores up one of the time-honored weaknesses of these decks. Previously, control players could simply sit on countermagic and focus on the limited number of threats that were being played. The addition of Summoning Trap and “must-answer” creatures including Wurmcoil Engine, Avenger of Zendikar, Primeval Titan, and the Eldrazi means that this isn’t always a viable plan. A single Wurmcoil Engine might turn into an Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
and
a Wurmcoil Engine.

Currently, 29.6% of the winning decks on MODO and 21.9% of the winning decks at SCG Opens are composed of decks that attack the metagame with ramp spells and efficient creatures
. To repeat my byline from the section focusing on Jace, this means either that any deck you choose to play next week should either be able to reasonably handle such card interactions, or that you should be playing these cards yourself.

A Brief Interlude

R/U/G Ramp aside (which we’ll get to in a minute – no, I didn’t forget it), the U/x Control archetypes and the Ramp archetypes
compose a flat 50% of the winning decklists on MODO and 37.5% of the winning decklists at SCG Opens. Interestingly,
although they do not compose the majority of winning lists,
they’ve been getting a substantial amount of the “press” in Standard. The aggro decks have slipped beyond many of our consciousnesses (say that five times quickly). While they seem dissimilar in many ways, they share a key characteristic.

Aggressively and Resiliently Attack

To the tremendous sadness of combat-haters everywhere, traditional “aggro” is not a flash-in-the-pan Champs phenomenon this year. There are two fundamental types of aggressive decks in this format, and the differences between them make it slightly harder to be “anti-aggro” using traditionally effective tools (such as Day of Judgment).

Decks such as Elves, Mono-Red, and G/x/x Shaman can be blisteringly fast, and the Mono-Red deck with Assault Strobe can even kill on turn 3. However, what truly makes these decks frightening is their ability to attack quickly and then
do something afterwards.

The Elves deck makes use of cards like Vengevine, Nissa Revane, Eldrazi Monument, and Fauna Shaman to setup board positions that simultaneously are aggressive and resilient (I know, who would’ve thought that I’d use those two descriptors).

Mono-Red has an efficient planeswalker in Koth of the Hammer and frequently runs Molten-Tail Masticore (and, for the record, burn spells can be a tremendous secondary plan when attacking with creatures).

Finally, the G/x/x Shaman deck has Vengevine and often runs both Garruk Wildspeaker and Jace, the Mind Sculptor – while Jace isn’t quite as optimized here as he might be in the dedicated U/x Control decks, he still is a tremendous asset.

The “all-in” aggro decks – Boros, Goblins, and White Weenie/Quest – have been fairly successful in online tournaments (which are only four rounds) but have not seen quite as much success in the longer tournaments offered by StarCityGames.com. This makes perfect sense because
these decks rely more on optimal draws in the first few turns of the game to be successful. The glaring exception to this is the
Goblins deck
that took second place at Charlotte.

Nonetheless, aggressive decks compose 35.7% of the winning decks on MODO and 31.3% of the winning decks at SCG Opens, and so it would be a mistake to assume that only the ramp and control decks currently are relevant. Your deck needs a way deal with an aggressive game plan.

3) My Dad Can Beat Up Your Dad(?)

Okay, so this one isn’t really a question. If schoolyard dialogue is to be believed, the history of the world largely rests on titanic struggles between middle-aged men fought under the jungle gym for the honor of their children. Similarly, echoing your scraggly-bearded opponent in round 4 at Friday Night Magic, we struggle to find a deck that is “like, 90% against most of the field!” Sadly, such a dichotomy rarely has presented itself in a tournament (and when it has, it quickly has been corrected by metagame shifts or by the DCI).

I think that it’s possible to succeed in the current Standard format with a wide variety of the decks that I’ve discussed in this article. If I were to play in a tournament next week, though, I’d attack the field from one of two angles.

R/U/G Ramp is a perfect storm of the successful elements in the current metagame. It has many of the components that lead to success in U/x Control decks – namely, Jace, the Mind Sculptor, Preordain, Mana Leak, and Frost Titan. Rather than pairing these cards with other controlling elements, it runs acceleration (that also can attack) in the form of Lotus Cobra, Oracle of Mul Daya, and an excellent cantrip (Explore). Combined with random “alternate plans” like Avenger of Zendikar, Volition Reins, Destructive Force, and even Vengevine in some builds, it’s a serious contender.

However, the recent success of U/B Control (Gerry Thompson build) with a full suite of very powerful cards against R/U/G (Doom Blade, Consuming Vapors, other controlling elements, and potentially Memoricide out of the board) suggests that this deck may no longer be the flavor
du jour.
All of this depends, however, on the extent to which the U/B deck appears in significant numbers at tournaments. The R/U/G deck is still an excellent choice and certainly has the potential to win upcoming Standard tournaments.

This leads to my recommendation for Standard tournaments in the next week: Pyromancer Ascension.

“But wait!” you think. Are you really going to move into the last section of your article without resolving the tension between Isengard and Mordor that you brought up and then seem to have forgotten?

“Why no!” I reply.

You see, I’m recommending a deck that primarily has achieved success at SCG Opens as opposed to on MODO. If your goal is to reach the top of a “real life” tournament (such as one hosted by SCG), then your goal, metaphorically, is to reach the top of Mordor. So how, you ask, might one climb Mt. Doom? The way is fraught with danger, fiery ash, and molten, hot lava. What path might one take?

Simple – use a Pyromancer’s Ascension!

…

I’m so, so sorry. I also think that I understand M. Night Shyamalan a little better now.

In investigating and testing various iterations of the deck to prepare for this article, I found the 8th place list from the Charlotte tournament to be the most appealing.

This shell is fairly consistent across different builds. Some versions run Deprive instead of Spell Pierce, and while Deprive is better in the late game (almost tautologically, since it’s a hard counter and allows you to reset a Halimar Depths), I’ve found that Spell Pierce adds a lot of needed utility in the early game. Importantly, it allows you to force through a turn 3 Pyromancer Ascension against other control decks, many of which don’t have a maindeck answer until Volition Reins.

I tested Pyroclasm in the maindeck ,but I don’t think that it’s necessary. It’s nice to bring out of the sideboard against decks like Elves, but you already have eight targeted removal spells and Into the Roil, which should allow for time to set up crushing levels of card advantage.

Jace Beleren played out better for me than Jace, the Mind Sculptor, primarily because of the casting cost. I’ve seen other decks that run “big Jace,” and I think that it may be an equally valid plan – my only basis for running “little Jace” is that I played the deck with both configurations, and I found that I was most likely to get utility out of Jace
in this deck
when he came down on turn 3 (for the record, I don’t think that this is the rule “in general” for Jace).

Into the Roil has been an absolutely amazing card in many of the matches that I’ve tested, and I want to run four copies. The problem is that I don’t want to cut any of the cards in the deck, many of which are there to provide optimal consistency. The greedy part of me wants to cut a single See Beyond for the fourth Into the Roil, but I’m not sure if it’s correct to do. I tested with the change, but it is hard to tell over a moderate number of matches how such a change affects the deck.

I think that Stephen had a fairly strong sideboard as well, and I found the Frost Titans to be absolutely amazing. Several times, I beat an opponent with the Titan only to have him or her reveal a hand with cards like Revoke Existence and Nature’s Claim. In fact, I think that the deck may want additional “hard to answer” creatures to bring in against opponents who will side out their removal. The sideboard on which I settled after testing is as follows:

2 Frost Titan
2 Calcite Snapper
1 Sphinx of Jwar Isle
4 Flashfreeze
2 Spell Pierce
4 Pyroclasm

In the abstract, I think that additional copies of Frost Titan would be useful, but now that more decks are running Memoricide against decks with a small number of win conditions, it seems wise to drop the power level of a single sideboard card (Frost Titan à Sphinx of Jwar Isle) to provide a modicum of resilience to that angle of attack.

The deck that I’d run, then, is this:

This deck is functionally a “combo deck,” though there are some cases when it functions more like a control deck with an alternate win condition. While it doesn’t have Time Warp to chain turns and take control of the game, it isn’t always the case that you play out a Pyromancer Ascension as quickly as possible and race to twenty points of damage. Granted, this deck
can
be very fast, especially if you have a turn 2 Pyromancer Ascension into multiple spells on turn 3 (setting up a game state from turn 4 forward that is unsustainable for most opponents). Sometimes it’s a reactive deck that manages resources and uses the card advantage from Pyromancer Ascension to build up to a lethal turn or two.

Interestingly, this isn’t a deck that just “crushes” any particular matchup, but neither does it have any unwinnable matchups, meaning that it’s important to be comfortable both with the deck and with the metagame in order to succeed.

As we’ve discussed, a substantial portion of the decks in the current format are “Jace” decks. Depending on the color with which blue is paired, these decks have a number of dead cards against Pyromancer Ascension, including, but not limited to, Consuming Vapors, Doom Blade, Disfigure, Day of Judgment, Oust, Condemn, Flame Slash, Pyroclasm, and tutor targets like Brittle Effigy. By no means am I implying that these matchups are an “auto-win” as a consequence of these dead cards, but it always helps when decks have between eight and twelve dead cards in game 1.

The Jace decks still have a suite of counterspells (typically ranging from four to eight copies, with Mana Leak being the ubiquitous auto-include), and you carefully need to protect your copies of Pyromancer Ascension. Absent some well-timed burn spells, it’s very hard for you to win the first game without at least one powered-up Pyromancer Ascension on the battlefield. Their sorcery-speed creatures such as Frost Titan typically can be addressed with cards like Into the Roil or Mana Leak, but they have more threats than you have counterspells. Additionally, the U/W and U/B versions have manlands that you can’t bounce with Into the Roil, meaning that you need to carefully balance your burn spells to be able to handle both planeswalkers (Jace, the Mind Sculptor, Jace Beleren, Gideon Jura, Elspeth Tirel, and others) and Creeping Tar Pit and Celestial Colonnade.

Against the ramp decks, you typically want to race. It’s perfectly reasonable to use burn spells against cards like Joraga Treespeaker, and burning Lotus Cobra/Oracle of Mul Daya is almost always the correct decision (unless you’re a turn or so away from having lethal damage). However, you need to focus on locating at least one copy of Pyromancer Ascension and powering it up as quickly as possible. They don’t have any way to interact with that card in the first game, so they’re just ramping as quickly as possible, and you are trying to burn them out. It has been my experience that the decks using creatures to ramp (R/U/G and Eldrazi Green) are a bit easier to combat than Valakut Ramp, which uses non-creature acceleration and resolves residual damage through Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle. It’s important to remember that the R/U/G Ramp deck does
not
run Summoning Trap in the main, and so you safely can counterspell their creatures when appropriate, whereas it’s much riskier to do so against Eldrazi Green and Valakut Ramp.

Aggro decks similarly are a race, and the same rules that apply to many other decks apply to this one. For instance, it’s usually correct to burn the Boros creatures (such as Steppe Lynx and Plated Geopede) on your turn so you don’t get blown out by a fetchland. Since you run Into the Roil, however, you can get a lot of value by baiting them into sacrificing their lands to get out of burn range (if you represent burn) and then bouncing the creature. Every land that enters the battlefield in their side without causing damage is basically a Shock that you have avoided, meaning that you shouldn’t be afraid to take steps to nullify their landfall.

The other aggressive decks, including Goblins and Vampires, can be managed by burning their “lieges,” but they’re incredibly fast and sometimes they’ll be able to outpace you. Pyroclasm from the sideboard is obviously amazing, but game 1 is far from an auto-loss if you play meticulously. It has been my experience that Boros is the easiest of the aggro decks for Pyromancer Ascension to manage because they often overinvest in one or two creatures (because of landfall), and your single-target spells effectively can counter this plan.

If you decide to play this deck at an upcoming Standard tournament, drop me a line here, and let me know how you do!