With both Toronto and Portland being very far from Georgia, I decided to stay home and watch some coverage this weekend. In an homage to a few articles Ari
Lax has done in the past, here are my take-aways from each round of the SCG Portland Open:
Round 1
Cedric Phillips (Atarka Red) 2-1 vs. Mike Savvingou-Pangas (Esper Dragons)
Game 1 displays some of the issues with Esper Dragons. The deck is capable of producing functional draws that you are often willing to keep in the dark
that have absolutely no chance of competing with a decent red or similarly aggressive deck’s draw. No matter how much the format continues to evolve, an
unchecked Goblin Rabblemaster is still, and always will be, lights out.
An interesting scenario that comes up frequently in sideboard games from the Esper Dragon’s side is the decision to kill the dash creatures and maximize
your Drown in Sorrows, or to fight what is onboard. In this case where Mike has multiple Bile Blights in hand, no Drown, and will only be taking one extra
point from the Heelcutter, it is likely beneficial to try and eat up Cedric’s mana every turn with the dash creature.
I also agree with Matthias that Mike should be casting his spells as aggressively as possible to use his mana and power up Dig Through Time. When missing
land drops with a Dig in hand, the Dragons player wants to dump his/her hand and then use Dig to turn the corner by finding an Ojutai and going on the
offensive.
Round 2
Caleb Scherer (Bant Heroic) 2-0 vs. Cody Smith (Jeskai Tokens)
It’s hard to remember a time when 1/1 tokens have been as potent as they are in the current Standard format. Although Heroic has the potential to make a
giant hard-to-deal-with threat, they can still be placed into a defensive stance by the threat of going wide. Further, Bant Heroic has both the classical
issue of drawing a ton of creatures and no ways to augment them in addition to having a less stable manabase.
However, the heroic deck having an incredibly versatile tool in Dromoka’s Command does give the deck several new interactive angles of attack. Where in the
past Jeskai Ascendancy may have allowed the token deck to go around Heroic completely, it is now a far less viable option.
The very tail end of the backup match of Abzan Megamorph vs Abzan Aggro alludes to the appeal of sacrificing a small amount of the raw efficiency in
Anafenza and instead leaning towards a more attrition- based game utilizing the Deathmist Raptor/Den Protector package and then even Mastery of the Unseen
in post-sideboard games.
Round 3
Adam Green (B/W Warriors) 2-1 vs. Greg Mitchell (Esper Dragons)
As we saw previously, Esper Dragons can’t expect to win games on the draw when they aren’t interacting until turn 3 against any kind of acceptable
aggressive curve. As the commentators mention, Bloodsoaked Champion also has a great deal of appeal when one of the best removal spells in the format is
Foul-Tongue Invocation.
In game 2, I like Greg’s decision to cast Drown in Sorrow on the fourth turn just to kill Bloodsoaked Champion. Despite the fact that he is trading Drown
for not even a full card, this is heavily outweighed by the necessity for him to find another land to stabilize the board with Dragonlord Ojutai or Crux of
Fate. Players often fall into traps of deciding that their card should result in an exchange of a certain level of quality, when in reality just casting
your spells and using your mana is frequently more important. By a razor’s margin, he is able to win the game as a result.
The third game displays how difficult it is for Esper Dragons to break serve. Greg’s hand is great, but simply having Force Spikes on the draw and getting
his best spell stripped by Thoughtseize was all it took to get run over.
Match B
Jesse Petri (Esper Dragons) 0-2 vs. Randolph Gille (Esper Dragons)
We enter the action with Randolph already having Risen Executioner in play and with firm initiative in the game. Although Jesse’s Ashiok may have served
him well against the Den Protector decks running around, Risen Executioner is a much more potent tool in the mirror match specifically.
Round 4
Matt Osborne-Koch (Abzan Midrange) 2-0 vs. Joe Lossett (Bant Heroic)
I’m no expert on Heroic, but it’s games like these that make me wonder why Monastery Mentor hasn’t seen more play up until this point. Even though Matt
stalls on lands, it’s not like Joe does very much this game either. If Joe were casting his protection spells on just another heroic creature, Matt would
still be able to line up Deathmist Raptors nearly indefinitely until one finally deals damage instead of being completely run over by prowess tokens.
As it were, Matt is able to find a Bile Blight, and his mana screw overcomes Joe’s flood, but regardless of result, it is important to take note of how
powerful Monastery Mentor is as a backup plan for this deck. Ross Merriam’s win in the quarterfinals over Bant Megamorph in the top 8 of SCG Cleveland is
another great example of how brightly Mentor shines.
When playtesting Bant Heroic against Deathmist Raptor decks, one of the more surprising things we discovered was how much more valuable Favored Hoplite was
than the other heroic creatures. The ability to cleanly answer Raptor with Hoplite’s prevent all damage trigger when combined with Dromoka’s Command made
Hoplite the clear priority for both players.
Round 5
Travis O’Dell (Mono-Red Devotion) 1-2 vs. Chris Morris Lent (Sultai Reanimator)
I agree with Patrick that I’m disappointed to not see Purphoros in this deck. On the surface, the issue I’ve found with these types of red strategies is
that it’s hard to get paid off by any of the “Devotion matters” cards. Either you have an aggressive curve where your cards stay in play so you would win
anyways, or Fanatic of Mogis is too clunky and doesn’t impact the game much. It’s also difficult to be incentivized to play Devotion cards when some of
red’s best options in Standard are token producers. As we’ve seen already, this ability to go wide, particularly complimented by Atarka’s Command, is
extremely effective.
Fanatic, in particular, isn’t the culprit in the first game, but Travis barely loses with a ton of action still in hand and his opponent at a low life
total. It is fundamentally difficult to deploy threats early and still have a mix of medium spells and the lands to cast them.
In the sideboard games as well, the most threatening aspect of Travis’s deck was just a good mix of cheap aggressive creatures backed up by removal.
Round 6
Jacob Buck (Jeskai Tokens) 2-1 vs. Danny Goldstein (Bant Heroic)
Although Danny was constantly ahead from the beginning with an unkillable Lagonna-Band Trailblazer, it feels as if this matchup has changed considerably
now that Dromoka’s Command is in the mix. In the past, as the commentators touch on, Jacob may have been able to tread water while behind on board before
playing Ascendancy and pulling way ahead. Even though Goldstein wins an exchange in combat by utilizing his Command, it’s entirely possible that just by
sandbagging it Buck would have essentially been locked out of the game.
Monastery Mentor continues to impress as it has done all day, and it gives Jacob an avenue to go wide that isn’t vulnerable to the multiple copies of
Dromoka’s Command in Danny’s hand.
The third game featured an unusual play pattern. Although taking a purely defensive stance is usually unfavorable for Jeskai Tokens, Jacob is able to peel
Mentor then pull ahead with Treasure Cruise in the topdeck war after winning the fight over Danny’s only threat. It is amusing how little Jeskai Ascendancy
did in the match, while Mentor pulled its weight in spades.
Round 7
Nick Peternell (U/G Devotion) 1-2 vs. Nick Verrall (Abzan Aggro)
Peternell’s strategy was easily the breakout deck of the tournament. Thassa and Master of Waves have never stopped being excellent Magic cards, but their
support hasn’t existed for some time. With the inclusion of Collected Company, Stratus Dancer, and Shorecrasher Elemental, it would appear Blue Devotion
has new life.
That being said, the first game is just a clear display of how power can frequently trump synergy, similar in a sense to how the G/B decks have been able
to dominate Modern for years. Fleecemane Lion and Siege Rhino backed by removal is precisely what Abzan Aggro wants to do, and when you’re competing with a
strategy dependent on the sum of its parts instead of trying to out-efficiency your opponent, your removal becomes even more valuable. This is a game
reminiscent of Mono-Black Devotion vs Mono-Blue Devotion whenever Black had the upper hand.
Encase in Ice is a much better card in this format than Claustrophobia used to be. Another advantage of playing this fringe strategy of yesteryear is that
no one is used to playing against the cards anymore, a potentially huge edge in a Standard format that has started to flesh out. Master of Waves is still
an incredibly powerful card that immediately demands an answer, which is not something folks are ready to do right now.
Round 8
Robbie Calhoun (Esper Dragons) 2-0 vs. Zack Fast (R/W Tokens)
This is the first time we’ve seen Esper Dragons do its thing instead of getting run over. Zack stumbled, and that was all it took for Robbie to slam Ojutai
and put the game away after casting two interactive spells. Being able to connect and find Foul-Tongue Invocations and Silumgar’s Scorn to close the door
is exactly why Esper Dragons is so potent.
Game 2 is a lesson in sequencing. By casting Anticipate before attacking with Ojutai, Robbie would have been able to pick up a Thoughtseize or simply
decide to choose his spot differently. A slight hiccup, but the potency of Esper Dragons’ sideboard cards and closing speed are on full display, and Robbie
is able to take the match.
Round 9
Sean Kacalek (Abzan Reanimator) 1-2 vs. Gerry Thompson (Bant Megamorph)
An interesting subgame quickly develops in this match. Sean identifies that with Gerry light on resources, a Sorin ultimate paired with his removal spells
and eventually Hornet Queen will be too difficult to overcome. As a result, Gerry’s only real path to victory once he sees Ojutai on top of his deck is to
keep the board stable with morphs just long enough to four or five shot Sean. The commentators mention that perhaps Gerry should shuffle away his Ojutai
and flip Stratus Dancer at end of turn to start pressuring Sorin. Thompson, however, realizes this is simply a means to keep himself in the game long
enough to eventually lose to the Hornet Queen and needs the power of the Dragonlord to actually win.
My only concern from a strategic perspective is Gerry’s attack with Deathmist Raptor the turn Sorin has six counters. It will force a block from Sean, but
it doesn’t feel like that actually matters. Just having as many creatures in play as possible to form a buffer for Courser and Ojutai is what is important.
Despite the losing effort (on four cards), this game is a testament to how attractive the Bant Megamorph deck is. Dragonlord Ojutai is incredibly powerful
and is insulated from Foul-Tongue Invocation by the other “best thing” you can be doing: the inevitability engine of Deathmist Raptor + Den Protector.
I like Sean’s use of Anafenza, the Foremost. She can pick up a lot of incidental value in the format between the Raptor engine and more fringe Whip decks,
and her ability to power up his Lions and Wayfinders can give him draws reminiscent of Abzan Aggro.
After sideboard, it feels like Bant Megamorph is clearly favored. Once Den Protector is paired with both cheap interactive spells and Mastery of the Unseen
as a trump, it is difficult to get out midranged.
Round 10
Matt Osborne-Koch (Abzan Midrange) 2-1 vs. Stephen Girdner (Mono-Green Aggro)
I agree with Matthias’s opening statement for the match. It would appear that there is a great deal of room for different aggressive decks to beat Esper
Dragons based on the tournament thus far. As long as you can curve effectively (and win die rolls) you should be a favorite. I’ve talked about it before,
but I really like green decks these days taking a more aggressive stance. The fact that Stephen can both go low to the ground with Avatar of the Resolute
and still utilize the Raptor + Protector package is very appealing.
The first game is just a classic display of efficiency. Matt and Stephen’s cards are actually quite comparable this game, but the player with basic Forests
instead of enter-the-battlefield tapped lands actually gets to deploy them. Even as Patrick verbalized the chance that Matt could die to Reverent Hunter,
he probably barely believed it himself.
An interesting aspect of Courser of Kruphix is how the information can completely sculpt the flow of the game. After Matt cracks a fetchland and reveals
End Hostilities on top of his deck with Fleecemane Lion in play, his opponent puts on the brakes. This is likely a better scenario for Matt then Stephen
just overextending. Koch’s average draw is superior to Girdner’s, and with the Lion giving him a substantial board presence post-End Hostilities, he is
afforded a ton of time. As soon as the Mono-Green Aggro player stops playing out his hand with no active offense, he has likely lost the game.
Round 11
Gunnar Brinkman (Mardu Midrange) 2-1 vs. Gerry Thompson (Bant Megamorph)
The strongest impression I get about Mardu Midrange is how difficult it is build a 60 to be balanced in a variety of matchups. A rise in Esper Dragons
makes the card Crackling Doom sound extremely exciting, but I think the issue for most people is finding a shell that can actually support it. Although
Brimaz, Thoughtseize, Sorin, and Crackling Doom are all effective tools for fighting one spectrum of the format, it feels hard to believe they’re all
powerful against Den Protector + Deathmist Raptor, or even Foundry Street Denizen. Gerry’s draw in the first game is nothing special, but a key removal
spell and some hard to kill idiots run over Gunnar before his heavy hitters come online.
Games 2 and 3 go far more according to Mardu’s plan. Although the second game is more a testament to mana screw, the third game almost makes me believe
that there’s an argument for removing Dragonlord Ojutai in the matchup. Perhaps that would be too much a sacrifice in power for the Bant deck, but curving
Dooms into Elspeth made for a convincing victory in the final game of the match.
I actually think that Elspeth was represented as being a little stronger than it actually is in reality here. Den Protector and Stratus Dancer can
naturally prey on Elspeth in two turns, not to mention the access to countermagic and plenty of decent ways to chip at her tokens.
Round 12
Roy Yang (Naya Midrange) 0-2 vs. Stephen Girdner (Mono-Green Aggro)
Win the die roll? Check
Turn 1 Elvish Mystic? Check
Good luck.
Surnasty (ask BBD) continues to be potent against these cumbersome draws. It doesn’t surprise me that these honest G/R/x decks are starting to falter in
popularity. They don’t have the same speed or quality of spells of Abzan flavors nor do they support the Raptor engine as well. Sam Black performed well at
the Pro Tour with a bit more gimmicky version of G/R with Hornet Nest, but that deck wasn’t able to survive the post-Pro Tour metagame with its extreme
weakness to Esper Dragons.
The only real decision point in the entire match is the turn Roy chooses to block with his Thunderbreak Regent and fight Avatar of the Resolute with
Dromoka’s Command. As Patrick and Matthias note he is likely better off blocking Avatar and passing priority. Without any real reach (though after watching
these games it might be difficult to defend that statement) you can afford to lose some life in combat to make sure you don’t get blown out by tricks. The
fact that Stephen jammed Avatar with a green up is rather telling.
Needless to say though, Stephen’s deck came to play this round.
Round 13
James Gerner (Jeskai Tokens) 1-2 vs. Josh Bower (Temur Midrange)
Temur Midrange is another deck that becomes more appealing with the rise of Esper Dragons. Traditionally, however, the deck is super weak to other
aggressive strategies largely because of its painful manabase. I like Josh’s use of Temur Charm. It is a slow but functional counterspell against control
decks, but I suspect it can frequently blow out opposing Dromoka’s Commands. Despite the fact that it’s more expensive, the large size of Temur’s creatures
will likely encourage Abzan to initiate a fight first.
As Matthias notes and previously as we’ve seen, Josh’s Elvish Mystic coupled with James’ slow start allows Temur to close the game out before the Jeskai
Tokens player can utilize his post sideboard control elements.
Round 14
Cedric Phillips (Atarka Red) 2-0 vs. Roy Yang (Naya Midrange)
This is the second time we’ve seen Naya Midrange get run over by an aggressive deck. As a snapshot this match does show how weak the G/R Thunderbreak
Regent + Stormbreath Dragon package is against the non-Ojutai decks in the format. They play defense poorly and require being ahead on the board to close
out the game.
Match B
Robbie Calhoun (Esper Dragons) 2-1 vs. Kian Dye (Abzan Aggro)
Nissa, Worldwaker isn’t quite what she used to be in this matchup. Now that control decks have a proactive flier, these midrange planeswalkers that have
traditionally been some of the best threats against them have gotten a lot weaker. Instead of operating on trumps, Abzan Aggro is far more interested in
just getting under Esper Dragons with their excellent mana sink two-drops. As we see here, even the mighty Ojutai can fall prey to Rakshasa Deathdealer.
The third game really shows exactly why I feel playing four Dragonlord Ojutais in your Esper Dragon deck shouldn’t be a question. Whenever the deck can
curve into the Elder Dragon on turn 5 and untap with it, it feels so hard to lose.
Round 15
Cedric Phillips (Atarka Red) 2-1 vs. Kian Dye (Abzan Aggro)
I like Patrick’s analysis of the Thoughtseize Kian plays on turn 3. When so far behind and Cedric’s hand being so redundant, it is in Abzan Aggro’s best
interest to take the best proactive tool that Cedric has that can be cast. If Kian can force Atarka Red into just playing a Lightning Berserker for the
extra point instead of getting on the board with his Dragon Fodder, it may give him the time he needs to find a Siege Rhino. It’s not like Cedric has the
luxury of holding up his Atarka’s Command. By allowing the Dragon Fodder to be played, Atarka Red’s “go wide” plan is still online. This is Atarka Red’s
best strength against the efficiency of Abzan Aggro’s creatures and ultimately the reason Cedric is able to take the first game.
In the second game, the commentators seem to be heavily supporting Kian’s defensive stance in the game. I’m not actually so sure that if he was getting in
attacks with these Fleecemane Lions before Cedric’s board is set up, that he wouldn’t be better off. As it were, a string of powerful draws (and of course
this is the argument for prolonging the game in every way) including multiple Whisperwood Elementals close out the game, but the beauty of Abzan Aggro is
how easily it can turn the corner once it has chipped its opponent down to a two-turn clock. When Atarka Red is given the benefit of being under no
pressure, it has the ability to, for instance, cast Hordeling Outburst then offer a trade of Foundry Street Denizen for Fleecemane Lion, which is an
extremely favorable exchange. It feels like the less time Cedric has to develop his board and go wide, the better. The real hero of this game, however, was
turn 1 Sandsteppe Citadel.
Game 3: Atarka’s Command is a filthy, filthy card. This red deck is much harder to play against than previous iterations over the years; you should do
yourself a favor and actually practice the matchup.
Quarterfinals
Cedric Phillips (Atarka Red) 0-2 vs. Nick Peternell (U/G Devotion)
Yep… [CEDitor’s Note: Same way I felt, Majors.]
Match B
Chris Morris Lent (Sultai Reanimator) 2-0 vs. Stephen Girdner (Mono-Green Aggro)
Just as we saw previously in the tournament against an Abzan Raptor deck, once Stephen’s aggressive is blunted then his recursion engine is not nearly as
powerful as in a deck that plays removal. Further, Sidisi, Brood Tyrant does a great job of both bridging the gap in Chris’s curve and powering up all the
aspects of his deck.
Semifinals
Chris Morris Lent (Sultai Reanimator) 2-1 vs. Nick Peternell (U/G Devotion)
While there’s a bit of an anti-climactic ending to the first game, I will say Nick’s deck really impressed me. The fact that he was able to go toe-to-toe
with a Whip of Erebos and Sidisi for a large number of turns implies a degree of staying power that I wouldn’t expect. Although Chris had mana problems,
it’s possible that if Nick had found another copy of Thassa, he may have been able to close the game out faster than Whip could gain life.
Game 2 just shows how potent turn 3 Thassa is. A year ago I would keep almost any hand with three lands and Thassa happily, and it is impossible for Chris
to remove from the board.
That being said, just as a previous time that Nick was featured, when he is able to get little traction on the board and his life total is under pressure,
these removal decks that have access to card advantage and can attack are a big problem for a devotion strategy.
Finals
Chris Morris Lent (Sultai Reanimator) 2-0 vs. Daniel Longoria (Abzan Aggro)
This is an odd corner case weakness of Wingmate Roc and Abzan Aggro in general. You can’t actually mulligan Daniel’s five card hand because there is some
universe where you can draw out of it, but it’s hard to imagine actually winning with it. Abzan Aggro is rather mana hungry in a subtle way and Wingmate
Roc is certainly not a cheap threat, but any mulligan with both copies is just a nightmare scenario. I like the way he uses his Thoughtseizes, prolonging
the life of his Fleecemane Lion and hoping to draw running lands is his only real route to victory.
After sideboard it feels like both decks are doing similar things, but Chris just has a stronger trump. Both players play somewhat competitive Magic up
until Hornet Queen just ends the game on the spot.
Lasting Impressions:
- There are a lot of viable hyper aggressive strategies as long as you don’t play tapped lands.
-
I would be very shy about keeping hands in the dark with Esper Dragons on the draw that contain three enter-the-battlefield tapped lands. Although
it was largely a coincidence of being placed against super aggressive decks, every time the deck was featured and had this hand, it got
slaughtered. It even feels like beating Raptor decks is nearly impossible if you aren’t doing anything before turn 4. -
Monastery Mentor pulled a lot of weight for a variety of strategies that can leverage him. I suspect that we would do well to place him into more
decks. Tom Ross appears to be the only one giving him real love. -
Going wide is great and, as a result, playing defense is difficult. These decks utilizing tokens are not flimsy all-in decks. They can afford to
build up a board and pick a spot to deal you a ton of damage, so sitting back on your one or two big creatures is not often a viable option. It’s
typically better to put the traditional aggro decks under more pressure and force them to move in with less resources. On the other end of the
spectrum, it’s also extremely difficult to play defense against the plethora of Deathmist Raptors and Fleecemane Lions running around. Don’t even
get me started about how difficult it is to block against Abzan Aggro when they have four mana available. -
Deathmist Raptor + Den Protector is the real deal. Three different color suites using this combination were shown to be successful throughout the
weekend. Abzan was the most popular, but Sultai was both the winner of the tournament and has the most natural synergy with the two cards. In the
past I’ve been hesitant of how clunky and potentially awkward the mana can be in Sultai strategies, but it’s possible that this engine is just too
powerful to ignore. That being said, this level of variety winning means there’s likely a lot more to learn. -
Peternell’s U/G Devotion deck was the first new archetype to be introduced in a few weeks that actually looks very good. I suspect that this Blue
Devotion shell can be tuned to have a better game against Deathmist Raptor and removal. Collected Company looked exceptional every time it was
cast. - Anafenza, the Foremost looks very good right now and should likely see play outside of traditional Abzan Aggro shells.