It finally happened. After weeks of shouting and speculation, Wizards of the Coast finally took action and banned Oko, Thief of Crowns; Once Upon a Time; and Veil of Summer in Standard. While some folks were worried that WotC might not be willing to ban the two most-played cards from their latest set, this particular format proved to be just too oppressive and stifling for half-measures. WotC did what they had to do, and we’ve got a brand new Standard metagame waiting for us here in late November.
The month is important, because November is typically when Magic prices begin their annual holiday swoon. Even though retail sales tend to peak in late November and early December, that’s mostly due to holiday gift-giving. Since expensive Standard and Modern staples rarely end up as stocking stuffers, singles prices tend to drop toward the end of the year as the eyes of the community turn elsewhere. There also tend to be far fewer major tournaments in late December, when lots of people are using their free time to be with friends and family for the holidays.
WotC has this yearly blip built into their release schedule. The time between the release of the fall set and the winter set is the longest part of the Magic calendar without a major release, and previews for Theros: Beyond Death are perfectly timed to begin right after New Year’s Day. That is not a coincidence.
Lots of changes to multiple formats today: https://t.co/d6nUmtCPiJ
As a reminder, Pioneer’s announcement will be posted later this afternoon.
— Aaron Forsythe (@mtgaaron) November 18, 2019
This line of discussion might seem digressive, but it’s crucial to understanding why Standard prices might not move as much in the wake of the banning as they would during a different part of the year. With the holidays looming and a new set slated to release in January, a lot of the more casually competitive folks – a large percentage of the player-base, and the folks who move markets – might not immediately look to pick up a new Standard deck. Instead, we might not see any epic rallies until early January, when the first Theros: Beyond Death previews begin.
That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t buy into Standard now, though. As with everything in Magic finance, the key is to think several moves ahead and react to what should happen several weeks from now. Standard is going to heat up again, and you’ll want to have the key staples safe in your collection when it does. Just don’t get discouraged if the buys you make this week don’t immediately pay off.
The Best Cards and Decks in Post-Ban Throne of Eldraine Standard
It’s important to realize that the new post-ban Standard metagame is unlikely to resemble the non-Oko portion of the pre-ban Standard metagame. The successful non-Oko decks were heavily tuned toward beating Oko, and it’s likely that many of these decks will flounder in a more open metagame. Even more importantly, there wasn’t much space to tune your deck toward beating any of the non-Oko decks with Oko around. This means that some non-Oko strategies will face dedicated opposition for the first time.
That said, the current metagame (sans Oko) is still the best place to look if we want to find the next best deck in Standard. Let’s begin with one of my favorite strategies and safest bets to make a splash in the new metagame, Jeskai Fires.
Creatures (13)
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (29)
Spells (14)
Jeskai Fires should have a solid matchup against most of the decks that are left in Throne of Eldraine Standard, and it’s one of the few decks out there right now that doesn’t lose a single card to the banning. It’s also a versatile enough strategy that I can imagine it shifting and evolving with the post-Oko metagame.
Financially, the biggest hurdle I have with Jeskai Fires is that it’s already kind of an expensive deck. In order to play it, you’ll need four copies of Teferi, Time Raveler and Fabled Passage along with a litany of other rares and mythics. As we’ve learned in recent years, decks with a couple of significant “choke point” cards rarely see major gains for their supporting pieces. After all, nobody is going to run out and buy a playset of Deafening Clarions unless they already have a playset of Teferis.
Speaking of Teferi, I have to believe that his price will only go up in post-ban Throne of Eldraine Standard. We’re that much further away from War of the Spark packs being opened, and Veil of Summer was stifling a lot of decks that would have otherwise been relying pretty heavily on Teferi. The card is currently sold out at $25, and it’ll end up in the $30-$40 range at some point during the height of the 2020 Standard season. You should try to acquire your Teferis over the next couple of weeks if you don’t have your set already.
Beyond that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see modest gains for Cavalier of Flame, Cavalier of Gales, and Fires of Invention. Core Set 2020 mythic rares have a higher ceiling than people think – you saw what happened to Vivien, Arkbow Ranger last week – and the deck’s namesake card is about to get a lot of press in the new Throne of Eldraine Standard environment. You probably won’t be able to quick-flip these cards or anything, but you should try to snag personal copies if you can.
Lastly, I suspect that Bonecrusher Giant will finally get its day in the sun. The card sees a lot of play in several of the decks that we’ll be discussing today, and multi-deck all-stars are rarely readily available for just $3.50. I don’t think there’s a super-high ceiling here or anything, but $5-$8 seems likely to me at some point.
Let’s move on to the Adventures decks now. The two most effective variants are Golgari and Selesnya, so let’s look at both of them together:
Creatures (25)
- 3 Paradise Druid
- 2 Massacre Girl
- 3 Rankle, Master of Pranks
- 4 Foulmire Knight
- 2 Order of Midnight
- 3 Lovestruck Beast
- 4 Murderous Rider
- 4 Edgewall Innkeeper
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (24)
Spells (7)
Sideboard
Creatures (25)
- 4 Venerated Loxodon
- 1 Flaxen Intruder
- 4 Lovestruck Beast
- 4 Faerie Guidemother
- 4 Giant Killer
- 4 Edgewall Innkeeper
- 4 Shepherd of the Flock
Lands (21)
Spells (14)
First off, it’s worth noting that both of these decks are about to lose both Once Upon a Time and Veil of Summer. Those losses are probably not insurmountable, but they are significant – perhaps significant enough to push both decks out of Standard’s top tier. Anyone who has played Adventures decks can tell you how important it is to have a Turn 1 Edgewall Inkeeper, and Once Upon a Time was a major part of getting there consistently. I’d like to look at them regardless, but they aren’t nearly as much of a sure thing to survive the banning as Jeskai Fires.
Financially, however, there’s a lot of upside here. Once Upon a Time was the most valuable card in pre-ban Selesnya Adventures, with most of the deck made up of commons, uncommons, and near-bulk rares. For those who want to dabble in the new format without breaking the bank, Selesnya Adventure is going to be near the top of their list. Paradoxically, that might cause prices to go up quite a bit.
If you’re going to speculate on one card from Selesnya Adventures, it should be March of the Multitudes. It is the deck’s sole maindeck mythic rare, and it’s from a set that hasn’t been opened in almost a full year. March of the Multitudes is currently just $4, but it was as high as $20 back when Guilds of Ravnica first debuted. It won’t climb that high again unless Selesnya Adventures really takes off, but there’s $10+ upside here regardless. At $4, this is one of my favorite spec targets in Throne of Eldraine Standard right now.
Over in Golgari-town, things are a little bit pricier already. Murderous Rider; Rankle, Master of Pranks; Vraska, Golgari Queen; and Liliana, Dreadhorde General all see play in this deck, and all four of those cards are at least somewhat difficult to acquire. I’ve always loved Rankle’s upside, but Murderous Rider is the safer pick-up here. The card has already proven itself in multiple good Standard and Pioneer decks, and it seems likely to become a cornerstone of the new metagame. You can currently pick these up for $8, and it’ll probably end up at $15 at some point during the next six months.
Murderous Rider also sees pay from time to time in the next archetype I want to talk about. If you thought that the Oko ban was the end of Food-based decks in Standard, you’re about to be proven wrong. Take a look at these two brews:
Creatures (15)
Planeswalkers (7)
Lands (24)
Spells (14)
Creatures (20)
- 4 Midnight Reaper
- 2 Gutterbones
- 4 Priest of Forgotten Gods
- 4 Mayhem Devil
- 2 Rankle, Master of Pranks
- 4 Cauldron Familiar
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (24)
Spells (13)
Sideboard
These decks might look a little different, but they’ve got one key thing in common: a reliance on the “Cat Food” combo of Cauldron Familiar and Witch’s Oven. The Rakdos Sacrifice deck takes things in more of a pure Aristocrats direction, while the Sultai Sacrifice list built around Trail of Crumbs, Gilded Goose, and Oko. There’s also a Jund brew, which kind of splits the difference, allowing access to both Gilded Goose and Mayhem Devil.
It’s tempting to view the existence of the Rakdos version of the deck coupled with the Oko and Once Upon a Time bannings as a death knell for the green-based versions of the Cat Food decks, but I’m not so sure. Gilded Goose and Trail of Crumbs are really powerful tools, and it’s quite possible that there will end up being several solid versions of Cat Food in the new metagame.
For one thing, Gilded Goose’s price tag will likely depend on how this deck evolves over the next few months. The card is still $7 right now despite the Oko banning, and it’ll only maintain that price tag if it continues to find a home in a top Standard deck or two. My guess is that it will succeed, but the price might come down a bit first if its new home doesn’t make itself immediately obvious. If you can pick up copies of the Goose for just a buck or two during the interim, I’d do it.
Because the Cat Food combo itself is made up of uncommons, the best spec opportunities for this deck won’t reveal themselves until we learn which version of the deck ends up breaking through. If the Rakdos deck makes it, you’re going to want to have Rankle, Master of Pranks and Chandra, Acolyte of Flame in your collection alongside the perennially underrated Midnight Reaper. This is yet another reason why I like Rankle right now, and I suspect it’s got the highest upside of any non-Brawl Throne of Eldraine card at the moment.
There aren’t as many good buys for the Sultai version, since most of those cards are already expensive for other reasons, but it would keep Gilded Goose and Vraska, Golgari Queen high while giving Murderous Rider another top-tier home. The best pick-up if Jund makes it? That would be Korvold, Fae-Cursed King, one of the Brawl commanders. That card is currently sold out at $15, and it would hit $40 without hesitation if Jund Sacrifice became a top-tier Standard deck. It’s still a long-shot, but the upside is massive.
Speaking of massive upside, it’s also quite possible that the end of Oko will be the beginning of a brand-new type of green deck in Throne of Eldraine Standard. Mono-Green Ramp is close to unplayable in a metagame where anything and everything could become a 3/3 Elk, but building a deck like this doesn’t seem so ridiculous anymore:
Creatures (29)
- 4 Growth-Chamber Guardian
- 4 Paradise Druid
- 2 Voracious Hydra
- 3 Leafkin Druid
- 4 Gilded Goose
- 4 Questing Beast
- 4 Wicked Wolf
- 2 Feasting Troll King
- 2 Yorvo, Lord of Garenbrig
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (24)
Spells (3)
I have no idea if this deck is going to be good, but I expect that quite a few people will want to try it regardless. The Great Henge is still a $13 card thanks to Commander demand, so any sort of competitive play would cause it to hit $20+ pretty quickly. Feasting Troll King and Yorvo, Lord of Garenbrig are also solid sub-$1 specs. There’s not a ton of upside here, but it wouldn’t take a lot for either card to hit the $3-$4 mark.
Speaking of green, most of the financial movement I’ve seen since the banning has been toward Gruul Aggro. It’s clear that a lot of players believe in the deck’s short-term future, regardless of how big a loss Once Upon a Time may or may not end up being. Let’s take a look:
Creatures (28)
- 2 Kraul Harpooner
- 4 Pelt Collector
- 4 Gruul Spellbreaker
- 3 Skarrgan Hellkite
- 4 Zhur-Taa Goblin
- 3 Paradise Druid
- 4 Questing Beast
- 4 Bonecrusher Giant
Lands (23)
Spells (9)
Embercleave is still readily available for $12 here on StarCityGames.com, but its price tag is surging on Magic Online right now and it’s quite possible that the paper price will catch up over the next couple of days. Questing Beast is probably not going to see a similar price increase – it’s already super-expensive thanks to the amount of play it saw in pre-ban Standard – but Pelt Collector and Bonecrusher Giant could be poised for gains.
We’ve talked about Bonecrusher Giant already, but Pelt Collector might very well be the most important card in this deck. I’m still not convinced that Gruul Aggro won’t miss Once Upon a Time too much, but Embercleave is probably a solid spec regardless. The card is quite good, and it should be able to find a top-tier home somewhere in the post-ban metagame.
Lastly, I feel like all five of the rare single-colored lands in Throne of Eldrane have a decent amount of financial upside right now. With Once Upon a Time and Oko, Thief of Crowns almost certainly coming down in price, some of that value will end up causing other cards to rise in value. These lands have proven to be great in both Standard and Pioneer at this point, so I suspect they’re going to end up being solid long-term holds regardless of how the metagame evolves. You won’t regret buying in now if you don’t have them all in your collection.
What to Do With Oko and Once Upon a Time
Cards usually drop in price once they’ve been banned, but Oko, Thief of Crowns might prove an exception to that rule, at least temporarily. Because the writing has been on the wall for so long with Oko, a lot of people who wanted copies of the planeswalker for Modern or Pioneer might have been holding off on their purchases, looking to buy in at the post-ban price. It appears as though this has caused a situation where Oko is trending slightly upward in price right now.
Personally, I don’t think this upward trend will last. Oko is good in both Pioneer and Modern, but we’re talking about a $40 planeswalker in the current set that’s not legal to play in Standard. That’s not the recipe for lasting financial success. Even if Oko does tick up a bit over the next couple of days, my guess is that the price will start to erode once we’ve all put the ban in our rearview mirror for a couple of weeks. I’d sell your Okos now if you can get anything close to $40 for them, and I suspect they’ll end up bottoming out around $15-$20 near the holidays. If you’re looking to buy, I’d wait until the end of December.
Once Upon a Time is also going to drop in price. I know it doesn’t seem like it will because the card has been so ubiquitous over the past few months, but everybody is underestimating just how many people needed four copies of this card to play Standard. Yes, the card is good in Pioneer (probably too good, to be honest) and Modern, but its current $23 price tag is not going to stick. Much like with Oko, I feel like the decline is going to be far more gradual than it usually is for a banned card. It’ll drop, though, and if you’re in the market, you should wait. I suspect you’ll be able to find copies between $7 (if it’s banned in Pioneer by the end of the year) and $12 (if it’s not) at some point in December.
What About Wrenn and Six and Narset?
Unfortunately, Legacy and Vintage don’t really move the market much anymore. I’m thrilled that WotC is still spending time analyzing the older formats’ metagames in order to make correct B&R choices, but you probably don’t have to take much action based on these two decisions.
Narset, for example, primarily has an expensive foil modifier due to Commander. The powerful blue planeswalker also sees play in literally every other competitive Magic format, from Standard all the way through Legacy. Vintage playability can sometimes cause an otherwise-unplayable foil to shoot up in price, but I can’t imagine there are too many people out there selling their foil Narsets simply because of the Vintage restriction.
As for Wrenn and Six, the card’s price tag was high primarily due to its playability in Modern. It might drop a little over the next few months, but fluctuations in the Modern metagame matter a lot more than Legacy playability when it comes to a card like this. If you’d got a playset of these, there’s no need to panic-sell.
If you do want to buy into Legacy right now, you might want to consider a Death and Taxes list like this one:
Creatures (25)
- 1 Serra Avenger
- 2 Flickerwisp
- 4 Stoneforge Mystic
- 1 Mirran Crusader
- 2 Phyrexian Revoker
- 4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
- 1 Hallowed Spiritkeeper
- 2 Recruiter of the Guard
- 1 Sanctum Prelate
- 1 Palace Jailer
- 2 Tomik, Distinguished Advokist
- 4 Giver of Runes
Lands (24)
Spells (11)
These decks were more or less hated out of the format by Wrenn and Six, and they should be playable again now that they’ve been banned. I don’t think we’ll see a ton of price movement here, but cards like Karakas, Rishadan Port, and Aether Vial could be poised for modest gains. At the very least, it’s nice to see the format regaining some of its lost diversity.
This Week’s Trends
As expected, most of the financial action last week was dominated by Pioneer. With the Season Two Invitational at SCG CON Winter putting the new format front and center, a lot of cards spiked in advance of the tournament as folks traveled to Roanoke and took part in the first major Pioneer event ever.
Despite suffering a couple of bannings over the past few weeks, Mono-Green Devotion was the deck to beat going into the Invitational. While most of these cards spiked during previous weeks, Vivien, Arkbow Ranger emerged as a crucial part of the strategy early last week. As a result, the paper price jumped from $5 up to $20 while the MTGO price surged all the way to 80 tickets. Huh? It’s almost as if nobody drafted Core Set 2020 on MTGO!
Creatures (27)
- 4 Llanowar Elves
- 3 Scavenging Ooze
- 4 Burning-Tree Emissary
- 4 Elvish Mystic
- 4 Walking Ballista
- 4 Jadelight Ranger
- 4 Voracious Hydra
Planeswalkers (8)
Lands (21)
Spells (4)
I still think that Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx and Once Upon a Time will both get the axe in Pioneer at some point, but the fact that they’ve survived this week’s banning should keep these devotion cards riding high for the time being. As long as this deck is allowed to exist at the top of the Pioneer metagame, cards like Walking Ballista, Voracious Hydra, and Vivien, Arkbow Ranger will remain expensive.
Speaking of the Invitational, I’ve started to see some price movement from Chris Barone’s Mono-Black Aggro deck. This deck took down the whole event, so I’m not surprised that folks want to sleeve it up:
Creatures (24)
- 4 Bloodsoaked Champion
- 4 Scrapheap Scrounger
- 4 Night Market Lookout
- 1 Gutterbones
- 4 Knight of the Ebon Legion
- 3 Rankle, Master of Pranks
- 4 Murderous Rider
Lands (24)
Spells (12)
Oh, hey, it’s Rankle, Master of Pranks and Murderous Rider again! I’ve talked enough about these two cards already today, but I just want to reaffirm my love for them here. As for the rest of these cards, it appears as though Knight of the Ebon Legion (currently sold out at $10) has been getting the biggest short-term bump out of this deck’s success, though both Mutavault and Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet have been climbing in recent days as well. I don’t think there’s much more room for cards like Smuggler’s Copter and Thoughtseize to gain ground, but it’s quite likely that they’ll keep the ground they’ve gained thus far now that black is finally doing well in Pioneer.
Lastly, it’s worth addressing the fact that WotC decided not to ban anything in Pioneer this week, and are unlikely to ban anything next week, either. It’s tempting to read this as confirmation that the format is close to settled, but I don’t buy it. Based on what I saw at the Season Two Invitational, and a lot of the people I’ve talked to about Pioneer over the past few months, the format still has a long way to go before it ends up in a healthy place. I suspect WotC just wants to take a breather and see how things play out before continuing to act.
Regardless, I suspect that the Pioneer market will slow down a little now that the holidays are almost here and Standard is interesting again. I don’t think we’re heading toward a crash or anything, but I suspect the next few weeks will be a little less Pioneer-centric. Regardless, I’ll keep you apprised of everything that’s going on across all formats as we head into winter.