The M14 Rules Changes

I’m fascinated by which spots we decide to care about the flavor of the game.

In any given FNM draft, I rarely think of myself as a pretend wizard casting magical spells. When I swing with my Rakdos Cackler and you block with your Gatecreeper Vine, I’m generally not thinking about my little goblin-esque Devil thing running up and tearing down your trellis. I do make "ca-caw" noises for my Bird tokens, of course, but who doesn’t? [Editor’s Note: If you don’t, you don’t love Magic!]

And then, one day, flavor feels like it matters a whole lot.

It doesn’t seem right to me that two legendary creatures are allowed to fight each other on the battlefield. Heck, it still doesn’t feel right to me to say "fight" and "battlefield." How can Jace come to your aid as well as mine at the same time? Why would he do that? Is your Jace a visitor from the darkest timeline? Does he have a goatee? Is he a fraud?

Flavor-wise, I don’t care for the new rule. I actually think the original legend rule was best—if a legend is out on the table, that’s it. Nothing can be done until he or she dies. From a design space perspective, however, the newest rule is easily the best. My guess is that Theros will be chock full of legends, and the standout block mechanic will likely be similar to the Pokémon card game—"evolving" noble heroes into legendary warriors or even gods. It fits the flavor of what we expect this block to be, and I strongly suspect that the new block will massively benefit from this change. After all, the last time the legend rule was changed was right before Champions of Kamigawa. Who knows what else we’ll get. Legendary dual lands? More cards with grandeur?

From a financial perspective, of course, the new rule has quite a few implications on cards that are already in print. Let’s talk about what cards might go up or down in price based on Wizards’ new vision for the game.

Gaea’s Cradle – $120 (Up from $100 Before the Change)

This card benefits from the part of the rule that allows you to tap a Cradle for mana, play another, sac the first Cradle, and then tap the second one on the same turn. Obviously, this is bananas in a deck like Legacy Elves (though some builds have used Crop Rotation to do this already). The problem, of course, is that a Legacy ban on this card would be disastrous for the price. I just can’t recommend speculating on a $100 card—even one on the reserved list. In the short term, though, it’s likely heading toward $150. They’re disappearing from the Internet as we speak.

Mox Opal – $40 (Up from $30)

The biggest change here is that the Affinity mirror match won’t be quite as dependent on going first. The card is better now, but it still requires metalcraft to function. I can see this card staying at $40 or even going a tiny bit higher assuming it isn’t banned in Modern, but many speculate that this will be another victim of the hammer. If it isn’t banned, Affinity should improve noticeably, and Opals will become quite a hot commodity.

Dark Depths – $20 and Thespian’s Stage – $2

The combo here is very real and doesn’t even require creatures to win. Basically, you can turn the Stage into a Depths that doesn’t have any counters on it in order to make a 20/20 without too much effort. Good thing Dark Depths is already banned in Modern!

Of all the cards on this list, this combo has the most potential to abuse the new rule. I loved Thespian’s Stage as a spec for Commander a few weeks ago, and I love it even more now that it’ll be a Legacy card. Dark Depths could jump toward $30-$35—it’s from Coldsnap, so there just aren’t that many out there. I already thought Thespian’s Stage would be a $5-$7 card eventually, and this combo might make that happen sooner rather than later.

Thrun, the Last Troll – $10 (Up from $8)

This dude was impossible for control decks to kill before, and it’s even harder to get rid of him now. Thrun has seen a bunch of play in both Standard and Modern, and he’s been as high as $20 before. He’s a mythic, so he still has some room to grow. Last night, I predicted a doubling from $8 to $16, and I think that could easily happen—though perhaps not until the next Modern season.

Karakas – $120

Geez, remember when this card was like seven bucks? I wish I had bought a million of them. Karakas probably gets a little better now that it’s harder to kill legends otherwise, but I don’t see it growing much from the already absurd price of $120. It’s not even on the reserved list.

Flagstones of Trokair – $7

This card is much worse thanks to the rules changes. If you have any copies lying around, you might want to ship them to a buylist somewhere.

Jace, the Mind Sculptor – $150

I’ve heard some people question whether Jace’s recent rise was due to insider knowledge of this rules change. I doubt it—even though he’s a little more powerful now, any deck that could run Jace before was already running four of them. Regardless, Jace is no longer a removal spell for Jace, so Jace gets even better. Yay?

Uril, the Miststalker – $6 (and Other Hard-to-Kill Generals)

Rumors abound that generals like Uril will go up thanks to the change, as they can no longer be killed by clone effects and playing a mirror match with a popular commander is no longer against the rules. This might be true in the short term, but most players don’t base their choice of general on those types of considerations. It’s true that build-around-me generals have just become harder to kill, but the people who wanted to build those decks anyway were already doing so. Any financial movement here is likely to be ephemeral.

Blue Generals

Blue leaned pretty hard on using clone effects to kill opposing generals before the rules change. These decks will have to adapt, and I suspect actual general removal like Spin into Myth will become more important. I don’t see any of these blue generals dropping in price, though—like I said above, people like to build around upside in Commander. The rules changes won’t affect that.

Kokusho, the Evening Star – $20

Someone asked me if I think this card is more powerful now. I don’t, really. Most of the time, dropping a second Kokusho (with a clone) and draining everyone for ten was the most powerful thing you could do with it in Commander. You can’t do that anymore. Instead, you can potentially get everyone for more by looping your clone. It’s more complex and still quite good, but I think it’s preferable in most cases to get both in the graveyard immediately. I don’t expect the price on this card to change at all.

Phyrexian Metamorph – $4 and Phantasmal Image – $5

Are these cards better? Are they worse? They certainly function more as they were intended now. Clones no longer act as spot removal for legendary creatures, but having access to an actual clone can be better in many cases—would you rather kill your opponent’s Emrakul, the Aeons Torn or get one of your own? Overall, I’d expect this change to make Metamorph a little better and Image a little worse. I don’t think there’s a financial play on either of them, though I do expect this rule to allow WotC to make even more new interesting clones.

Geist of Saint Traft – $30 (Up from $25)

I’m going to write about set rotation next week, but for now let me give you a small preview: keep your Geist of Saint Trafts. I liked this call before the rules change, and I like it even more now. Geist is a tier 1 Modern staple, and while he might drop off a little this summer, I suspect he’ll be $30+ this time next year. That said, I don’t see him rising above $30 in the short term. He’s still a rotating Standard card, so the market will be flooded in the next few months. Don’t buy in, but don’t sell out either.

There might be a few other cards affected by the rules change, but nothing I expect to radically shift the price. If you feel like you have a sweet card that’s gone overlooked, mention it in the comments section.

With that taken care of, let’s get to the topic I was going to write about this week before Wednesday night’s announcement hit.

Return to Ravnica Block Constructed

Looking at this year’s Block Constructed format in order to figure out next year’s Standard format has had mixed results in the past. Last year Huntmaster of the Fells, Restoration Angel, Geist of Saint Traft, and Cavern of Souls were major players in Block, and they all went on to see tier 1 Standard play all season. Wolfir Silverheart, Bonfire of the Damned, Garruk Relentless, Ulvenwald Tracker, and Mikaeus, the Lunarch were also strong Block rares, but they only saw fringe play come the fall. If you bought Bonfires for $50 apiece last summer, chances are you were regretting that decision soon after.

This year’s hit rate might end up even lower. Innistrad also had the benefit of not being a very linear block. Most of the strongest abilities—things like miracle, undying, and flashback—could be played in many different decks. Ravnica’s guild mechanics are a bit more linear, and they get worse when not paired with similar cards. While linear mechanics often show up in Block Constructed, they are much rarer in Standard. Building the best Boros or Selesnya deck makes sense for a Block event, but it’s likely that the best Standard deck in the fall will have cross-block synergy.

That said, we shouldn’t dismiss Block results out of hand. Cards that see play in high-level Block Constructed events tend to trade well if nothing else, and cards that prove their mettle in any Constructed Pro Tour are worth a second look. It says something that Legion’s Initiative made Top 8 in San Diego while Aurelia and her Fury were nowhere to be seen.

So let’s run down the Top 8 decks from last weekend, shall we?

Craig Wescoe – Selesnya
Dustin Ochoa – Esper
Josh Utter-Leyton – Boros
Makihito Mihara – Esper
Rob Castellon – Four-Color
Andrew Shrout – W/U/R
Matej Zatlkaj – Esper
Andrejs Prost – Azorius

There’s a lot to unpack here. First off, every single deck in the Top 8 ran white. Five of the eight ran blue. Four ran black. Three ran red. Just two of them ran green, though one of them was Wescoe’s tournament-winning brew.

Just two of the decks—Craig’s and Josh’s—were aggressive. We’ll look at them first.

Craig’s winning build looks like what would happen if a really brazen cheater decided to make the ultimate DGR Draft deck. It isn’t that complex, really—it’s got sixteen solid one-drops, eight twos, four threes, four fours, four removal spells, and four-to-eight combat tricks. The deck’s tournament win cements Voice of Resurgence and Advent of the Wurm as the key cards in Selesnya, and both have gone up in price since Craig took home the gold.

Personally, I’d like to see a little more from these two cards in Standard before I buy in. Both cards are amazing, but they’re very mana intensive and I’m not convinced they’d be as good with a three-color mana base. They’re both very expensive right now, and there’s no guarantee this deck will dominate Standard, especially in the fall. Feel free to hold both cards if you plan on using them, but if they’re just sitting in your binder, I’d sell while the hype is at its highest point.

Of the two cards, I like Voice the most, and most pros agree that it is the best card in the set. The price reflects that—it costs $10 more than Ral Zarek, the second most valuable card in Dragon’s Maze. While the card made waves in San Diego, though, many of the players who just missed the cut for the Pro Tour were battling it out at the StarCityGames.com Standard Open in Nashville. In that tournament, zero maindeck Voices made the Top 8. It’s a good card—probably a very good card—but I’d still sell at $40.

If you do believe in this deck, Call of the Conclave and Judge’s Familiar look like nice speculative pickups. Neither has seen much hype as a Constructed card, so they can both go from near bulk to $1-$2 each if Selesnya becomes a go-to Standard strategy.

Josh’s Boros brew is similar in style, though it plays none of the same cards. The creatures are all cheap and efficient, but if you were to port this deck to Standard, you could probably do better than the likes of Foundry Street Denizen for some of those slots.

If there’s a financial play here, it’s with Legion’s Initiative, a card that seemed overrated to me from the second it was spoiled. I just checked the price while writing this article, though, and I was shocked to find that it’s still retailing for $10. Based on how people have been valuing it in trade, however, it shouldn’t be hard to pick this up in the $6-$7 range if you want to speculate on it.

I bet it will drop even further, though, and if you think Boros has a shot in next year’s Standard, this might be a card to nab in trade this summer when the price finally comes down. If the fall set plays nicely with Boros aggression, Legion’s Initiative might become a sleeper hit.

It’s also worth noting that this Boros deck chose not to play a single copy of Boros Reckoner in the maindeck, opting for the full set of four in the sideboard. This card still sees play—Rob Castellon ran them in his deck—but it’s not as dominant in any format as it was a few months ago.

Moving on to Castellon’s amazing deck, it has the world’s ugliest mana base even with four maindeck Gatcreeper Vines (!!) tying the room together. Blood Baron of Vizkopa shows up here as a finisher, as does Standard all-star Angel of Serenity. The midrange creatures are mostly Alms Beast and Deadbridge Goliath, two four-drops that might have been underrated until now. I’ve been hearing some rumblings about Deadbridge Goliath as a possible player in the new metagame, and I wouldn’t mind picking a few up as bulk in trade.

Deadbridge Chant is also an interesting card. It started at $8, dropped to $4 almost immediately, and then shot back up to $8 around the time of the Prerelease. The Magic finance community was all over this one, and most of the people on my Twitter feed ended up with some number of copies before the spike. Weak demand pushed it back down to $6, though maybe Castellon’s deck will reignite interest somewhat. This is easily my favorite deck in the Top 8, and I actually like Deadbridge Chant as a longer-term casual spec anyway. Unfortunately, unless the fall set is graveyard based again, I doubt this card will make much of an impact. If you can find someone to give you $6-$8 for your copies of this card, I’d jump on it.

The last five decks in the Top 8 are worth talking about as a group. All of them ran three or four copies of Sphinx’s Revelation, which has continued to cement its status as the defining card of the block.

Looking at the maindecks of these five lists together, we find the following cards that appear in every single U/W-based control build:

And a few that appear in multiple builds:

If I had simply purchased playsets of every blue and white card in Magic over the past few years, I could have built the most dominant deck in Standard for FNM most weeks. I don’t yet know what the fall set will bring, but I guarantee you that a U/W-based deck will be quite good in next year’s Standard. It survived the loss of Vendilion Clique; Cryptic Command; Jace, the Mind Sculptor; Elspeth, Knight-Errant; Squadron Hawk; Stoneforge Mystic; Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite; and a litany of other game-changing cards. This Block event proves to me that it’ll survive the loss of Geist of Saint Traft, Snapcaster Mage, and Restoration Angel as well.

Interestingly enough, Jace, Architect of Thought was played as a four-of in every single blue-based deck in the Top 8. There were more copies of Jace than Sphinx’s Revelation. This tournament caused Jace to jump from $10 to $15, and I could see him climb even higher—much higher if this card’s dominance in Block translates to success in the fall. Liliana of the Veil never fell as far as Jace did—her lowest retail price was $16—but she did bounce all the way back to $60 at one point. Jace could hit $30 next fall without breaking a sweat. After all, that’s where Sphinx’s Revelation is and where it’s likely to stay.

Supreme Verdict is another good one. It’s bounced from $4 to $8 (it’s currently $6) and will be both a Legacy and Modern card for years to come. It may hit $10 next year when Return to Ravnica is a little further in the rearview mirror.

Lastly, this tournament was a bit of a coming-out party for Aetherling. The card only jumped $1—from $5 to $6 – but it was a dominant control finisher that I suspect will be in demand all of next year. Pick these up in trade now. Voice of Resurgence might be the best card in Dragon’s Maze and Selesnya may have just won a Pro Tour, but the mantle of Azorius dominance has yet to be handed off.

This Week’s Trends

If you believe a recent leak, the following cards are spoiled for Modern Masters:

Mythic: Elspeth, Knight-Errant; Ryusei, the Falling Star; Doubling Season; Sword of Fire and Ice [Editor’s Note: I can confirm this one!]; Sword of Light and Shadow; Tarmogoyf; Dark Confidant.

This is nearly half of the available mythic slots, and so far my predicted average of $35 per mythic is looking too optimistic. I figured Doubling Season would be a regular rare, and never in my wildest dreams did I predict something as awful as Ryusei at mythic. People are going to be so mad when they open him. I’m also thinking that our chances of getting all three of Thoughtseize, Vendillion Clique, and Mutavault have just been lowered slightly.

Rare: Kataki, War’s Wage; Tooth and Nail; Knight of the Reliquary; Arcbound Ravager; Aether Vial; Vedalken Shackles; Academy Ruins; City of Brass.

This is a fantastic array of rares. I don’t know if the quality will keep up, but my predicted average of $5-$6 per rare may turn out too low.

Uncommon: Path to Exile, Narcomoeba, Kitchen Finks, the Vivid cycle.

Common: Pestermite, Spellstutter Sprite, Desperate Ritual, Empty the Warrens, Grapeshot, Echoing Truth, Echoing Courage, Aether Spellbomb.

All of these cards were fairly expected, and the set seems on track for awesomeness based on what we’ve seen so far. I would absolutely sell my Kitchen Finks today if possible, but the rares and mythics should hold their value. Especially Ryusei.

Until next time –

– Chas Andres

@chasandres on Twitter