Assumption 2: Zoo isn’t really putting up great numbers online. It isn’t that good without Wild Nacatl.

Truth: Zoo is a very cost prohibitive deck, but that is being magnified online to exclude the deck from the metagame. The numbers on total deck cost online aren’t much different from real life, but I would expect a lot more Zoo in a PTQ than online Daily Events. In general, people are very inelastic on deck pricing online. When you are playing for +34 tickets for a 4-0 and +15 tickets for a 3-1, your profits add up very slowly to reach your initial investment. Even if you plan on flipping the deck, that’s a lot of bankroll tied up in one place. The deck isn’t necessarily a dominant best deck, so you need to play a lot for any win percentage increase to matter and to make up the difference in price.

How much time do you have to invest into events and how absurd does Zoo have to be to make it financially worth it to invest in it over a much cheaper deck?

This sticker shock also has to do with the lack of liquidity in Magic Online as well as the stakes. When you have a Magic Online bank roll, it is more or less a sunk cost. Translating tickets to real funds is very difficult compared to just selling a card in real life. I’m fairly sure directly selling tickets is against some rule somewhere and comes with a significant risk of scamming without any ability of recourse, and set redemption then requires the extra step of you moving the physical cards. As a result, people don’t want to actually convert real money to MODO currency on a large scale, and most MODO accounts are low in assets that can be used to move in on decks.

Without doing a full count, I would estimate Zoo costs around five hundred tickets. Do you know how much equity that is in MODO terms? I could buy into Standard, Block, Pauper, and Momir Basic with that and still have some left over.

This of course then builds into other issues. With such a small sample size of matches and so many options to play, the current lists are very unrefined. Zoo is also a deck that traditionally punishes other creature decks for not being Zoo, and these other creature decks have been relatively absent. Blue tempo is just starting to edge in with Fish and Delver decks, but before that, you were playing Zoo against Jund and Martyr as the other creature decks. This is not at all what you wanted to see with the stock lists.

Zoo is still a very good deck. While playing Affinity, I have lost more matches to it than any other deck despite it being so rare. Up in Ann Arbor, we have been brewing an aggressive version that I’ll get around to sharing next week. Not trying to keep it secret or anything; I would just rather have feedback from real events before I go off on the subject.

Assumption 3: The Pyromancer Ascension–Past in Flames Storm deck is good. It put up a lot of solid results and wins very quickly.

Reality: The only reasons Storm was putting up numbers online are because it punishes bad brews and is extremely cheap to build. When you strip it down, the deck is a turn-four combo deck that has no interaction at all game one. That means Little Zoo and Affinity can just win the die roll and kill you (Affinity probably has more turn-three kills than Storm). That means Splinter Twin is going to demolish you on the play and likely on the draw as well with a Dispel. You are not fundamentally faster than what people are trying to do in the format; you can’t get away without playing any sort of disruption of your own. On top of that, you are so dependent on having a critical mass of cards in hand to go off you can’t afford to dilute your deck with interactive cards. Maybe Remand, as you can double up Grapeshots, and it replaces itself; or Lightning Bolt, as it is a reasonable spell to storm into a Grapeshot with, but that is it.

And before you ask, yes, I am putting some effort into solving this. It probably won’t be event tested by next week like Zoo, but if I get somewhere, I’ll throw it out there.

Hive Mind, though I haven’t tested it, is likely about as good of a turn-4 deck as it was when I played it in Amsterdam. You are still cold on the draw to aggro, but you can Pact of Negation out the control decks. If you are playing Hive Mind, you have a reason for your deck to exist. To be fair, there are a lot of Spellstutter Sprites, Spell Pierces, and Thoughtseizes rolling around (with only four Hive Minds, getting Thoughtseized is a real issue) so it might not be that good right now, but at least the deck is invalidated by specific interactions.

Splinter Twin is a real combo deck. Most decks have more interaction with this combo than they do with Storm, as it can be stopped with instant-speed removal, but you have so many copies of each combo piece. Just play the next one, and go for it. If you use Kiki-Jiki, you don’t even get two-for-one’d. Your deck is also stacked with interaction. The combo guys are also Fogs and Mana Shorts. You get to play Dispel, which amounts to U: Counter target spell that matters. Even beyond that, you have room for around eight slots of anything you want. Sweepers, more counters, Spellskites, spot removal, you can even splash for discard if you want to get wild. The deck can adapt and react to what people present as hate.

Unless you can make the deck faster or more resilient to interaction, don’t play Storm.

Assumption 4: A control deck? They are just going to grind me out with Mystical Teachings or Gifts Ungiven if they are blue. Maybe some Rock deck is going to try to run me out of cards with a bunch of do-nothings, or I’ll get paired against the degenerate who showed up with Martyr Proc.

Truth: You pass on turn four with your aggressive deck feeling safe. You have a decent force on the board and a couple in hand and can easily fight through a sweeper that they are going to find with this end-of-turn Gifts Ungiven.

Unburial Rites, Elesh Norn. “Just finding two cards,” they say, “I don’t really need the rest.” Other options include Iona, Wurmcoil Engine, or Sundering Titan instead of the relatively narrow Elesh Norn.

Oops, sorry. Good game.

You want to know what the Rock decks look like? Jund. 4 Kitchen Finks, 4 Dark Confidant, 4 Tarmogoyf, 4 Bloodbraid Elf. The beats keep coming.

Martyr Proc? It exists, but it’s attacking you with Spectral Procession tokens and using Ranger of Eos to find Serra Ascendants and power them up with Martyr of Sands. That Proclamation of Rebirth is getting hard-cast for 18 power of flying lifelink, not just gaining 21 life a turn and hoping that is enough.

This is not the format for slow control decks right now. There are too many proactive decks attacking from too many angles for you to handle them all with the tools that exist. What you can do is handle the really dumb things and play your own proactive plan. Then when someone shows up trying to do something half as powerful but twice as cool, you just kill them instead of sitting there looking stupid, as they do something like pay WUBRG and make a 15/15. You have all these basic land types in play for that? Cool, Sundering Titan you on turn five, nice deck. Turn one Inquisition you, turn two Tarmogoyf, turn three Blightning, turn four Bloodbraid into Liliana. Nice hand of nothing you have there.

Even more proof of this? Think of how good you expect Snapcastering a Cryptic Command to be. In reality, it’s at least that insane, if not more. For those who played with the card in Standard, what was the most absurd mode for Cryptic Command when you had multiples? Deluge usually. Instead of grinding with the blue rare combo, how about we just lock their creatures for three turns straight and beat them to death with a Delver of Secrets and some Creeping Tar Pits?

Until things start to settle down, I would not to be winning games by burying someone in incremental card advantage. Make sure your deck actually does something to proactively end the game.

Part Two: What Are the Big Decks, Why Do I Lose to Them, and How Do I Beat Them?

Jund:

What Is It: Discard, dudes, removal, and four Lilianas. Same as always.

How Do I Lose to It: Play what Tom LaPille liked to refer to as “real Magic.” Their deck is all efficiency and two-for-ones. Going head to head with that is not going to work unless you are going way harder than they are on the same scale, like a Snapcaster Mage–Cryptic Command control deck.

How Do I Beat It: Do something that is broken and odd but fairly compact in execution. While they may have good discard that makes traditional combo a reasonable matchup, things like Tron or Martyr that just don’t operate in normal terms are hard for Jund to handle. They want to play a game where their threats are easier to land than yours and their answers are better. Don’t let them. The decks I just mentioned as well as Gifts name the terms of the engagement. Jund has to answer their setup early or it just dies to a Mindslaver, Iona, or 6/6 flying lifelink, but then has to find a way to close before that just happens anyway. Thoughtseize my Gifts? Better have things on lock before I Snapcaster it on turn six or just draw another. Sure, I’m hellbent, but I have Tron mana up. If I draw a blue or colorless spell, the game just immediately ends.

If you want it in generalized terms, force them to play control early but have inevitability.

Martyr (applies to other Spectral Procession decks):

What Are They: Squadron Hawks, Spectral Procession, Honor of the Pure, Ranger of Eos for Martyr and Serra Ascendant with Proclamation of Rebirth to run it back. They still have access to Wrath of God.

How Do I Lose to It: Try to win in the combat step or via attrition. Same thing as always against Martyr of Sands, only now you can’t just randomly win because you are playing blue spells to keep your board around and growing. The Spectral half of things also makes attacks and trading spells pretty miserable.

How Do I Beat It: Same as with Jund. Win the game with spells. Again, Gifts Ungiven seems like an unbelievably hard card for them to beat. Same with Tron. Instead of your endgame being “I run you out of cards and let some random threat get there while I hold all the answers” or “Translate the cards I draw into making your life total zero,” play the game of “I’m going to tap four on your end step and four on my turn to turn off your ability to cast spells” or “I’m going to take all of the turns.”

Splinter Twin:

What Is It: 8 untappers, 8 ways to copy them, 4 Dispel, and some filler.

How Do I Lose to It: Play expensive spells or give them time. Splinter Twin is just the latest incarnation of Steam Vents–Remand that has been around since the cards were in Standard and will punish you for playing a four-drop in a lot of ways. It is also fairly good against pure attrition, as it can rip out. Even Jund is a fairly close matchup just because a ton of games come down to Twin having seven outs and three draws to get there before they die.

How Do I Beat It: Put them under the gun and have some amount of interaction. Think Affinity and Zoo. The other option is just have a million answers plus a way to end the game. Both cases, the idea is the same. If they sit around long enough, they will assemble the perfect seven, but if you prompt them into action, you can just end the game.

Storm:

What Is It: Pyromancer Ascensions to try and get in early before counters, Past in Flames to hit twenty storm for Grapeshot. Sometimes Empty the Warrens too. Play ALL the plans.

How Do I Lose to It: Durdle around, play a deck that is just less powerful than theirs and not prepared for this fact.

How Do I Beat It: Do something, then back it up with a hate spell. Put them on a clock; counter their mid-combo Ritual to kill their mana. Play a Rule of Law then sit on a Cryptic Command for their bounce spell. Inquisition them then get Liliana going. The first bit of disruption is usually just a speed bump, but if you do something to make it relevant, it’s a nail in their coffin.

Melira:

What Is It: A Birthing Pod–Chord of Calling toolbox that also can assemble the Melira-Persist-Sac Outlet combo. If you remember Project X from years ago, same concept, but Kitchen Finks is a relevant card outside the combo.

How Do I Lose to It: Play a linear deck that they can find their hate card for (i.e. Kataki, Ethersworn Canonist) or let them start tutoring.

How Do I Beat It: Melira is still just a Rock deck at its core. Birthing Pod is a cute engine, but it is very slow to get going. Same rules apply as with Jund. Stop playing “real Magic,” and do something busted.

Affinity:

What Is It: Cranial Plating and 56 friends.

How Do I Lose to It: Assume you care about winning against it but can beat the deck fighting it with normal cards.

How Do I Beat It: Cast Ancient Grudge.

No, really. I’ve won probably around 20% of the games my opponent has cast that one.

Delver decks and Faeries:

What Is It: Delver, Vendilion Clique, Snapcaster Mage, Cryptic Command, Mana Leak, Serum Visions. Add favorite off-color two-drop and one-cost utility spell and shuffle thoroughly.

How Do I Lose to It: Play clunky spells, lean too heavily on a single spell resolving to win. Same thing Faeries and Tempo have always preyed upon.

How Do I Beat It: Put them behind early. These decks only really have Snapcaster to catch up assuming you play around Cryptic Command blowouts. Some tips on that last part: If you want to attack, don’t play a good spell first main. If your spell isn’t that great, consider baiting first main to essentially trade it for them drawing a card.

Merfolk:

What Is It: Aether Vial, Lords, cheap counters. Pretty close to a direct port from Legacy.

How Do I Lose to It: Play clunky spells or Islands. Notice a trend on all the blue decks?

How Do I Beat It: Lightning Bolts and Shriekmaws. Don’t lean on Wraths too heavily, just gun their stuff down and throw in some two-for-ones.

Zoo:

What Is It: Almost anything, but oversized early guys and cheap burn are in every deck. Snapcaster Mage and Spell Pierce may appear with Tribal Flames. Knight of the Reliquary and Noble Hierarch might also come with Elspeth, Knight-Errant .

How Do I Lose to It: Allow your deck to become too situational and clunky. Or just try to play creatures that aren’t on Zoo’s level. Even the token decks are quickly forced into situations where they get Abyssed every turn until they brick on a draw step and just die.

How Do I Beat It: Same as Merfolk. If their guys can’t connect, they don’t really have enough burn to get you. This is a deck you can grind out the old-fashioned way.

Gifts Ungiven:

What Is It: Give them a chance to resolve Gifts Ungiven when the guy they are getting back is good enough to seal the deal.

How Do I Lose To It: Let them cast Gifts Ungiven unmolested.

How Do I Beat It: Punish them for trying to cast a four-mana spell. Basically, just play any deck with Islands that has the ability to not let Inquisition of Kozilek plus Snapcaster Mage shred its game plan or defenses. This is a bit harder said than done, which is why Gifts isn’t just a garbage deck. The legitimate game plan of the deck is reasonably strong in terms of control decks, but sometimes you just cheat the system and one-card combo them. A similar mindset applies to Tron, only they are worse at handling aggro long enough to set up and better at just naturally getting there and overwhelming other control decks.

Part Three: The List of Random Stuff You Can Lose To and Cards Without Homes

Through the Breach into Emrakul, or Fist of the Suns. Currently decks doing this either have a five-color mana base and a ton of cantrips or Urza lands and Wall of Roots with a bit of red. Polymorph also exists and is primarily used in a U/W Tokens deck. If they have Spectral Procession and blue mana, this is probably why, so think about if their Windbrisk Heights might just summon Cthulhu. On the subject of Windbrisk Heights, another deck I have in the tank but need to still build is G/W Hideaway splashing Through the Breach. It seems to me like that is probably the better (read: faster) Primeval Titan-Eldrazi shell as opposed to the Post-style decks.

Worship. If you see Spectral Procession but no Martyrs cards, this is very possible.

Blood Moon. I’ve seen and used this mostly as an easy alternate win condition in linear decks like Twin and Affinity, but random Big Zoo players have done this to me before.

Ensnaring Bridge. No idea what the list is, but this is a card. If they have Tezzeret of either variety, this might be coming.

Plow Under. Another card with no home right now that could easily come back depending on where things go. The deck it is in needs a way to fight Remands and other cards that punish five-cost sorceries, but that can’t be too hard in a green deck. As I mentioned on Reid Duke forums the other week, I would first look at an Emrakul Hideaway shell for this card.

Geist of Saint Traft. Probably the best plan B creature out of a U/W deck’s board, also teams up very well with Elspeth and Tallowisp. Probably not good enough with just exalted, but if Etched Champion plus Cranial Plating is good enough to be a deck, this at the least very close.

Restore Balance and Living End. Not much to say here; Borderposts and Monstrous Carabids should be dead giveaways. Neither of these is exceptionally good; they just might pop up once or twice when the metagame shifts to being favorable for them.

Leonin Arbiter and Aven Mindcensor. Haters gonna hate.

 

So, there you go. Welcome to the current state of Modern. I have to say again this is currently a very good format with a lot of room for innovation. That may change as people start working on it more, but for now I say this is not a joke like Extended. I want to play this format even if I’m not PTQing, and that’s a win for Wizards.

One more thing. For those asking for my current lists, here you go. These are both decks I would be happy playing in an event in their current form, which is saying a lot.

I Guess This Is Affinity?

Ari Lax

Test deck on 01-15-2012

Modern

Creatures (25)

• 4 Arcbound Ravager
• 4 Ornithopter
• 1 Steel Overseer
• 4 Memnite
• 4 Etched Champion
• 4 Signal Pest
• 4 Vault Skirge

Lands (15)

• 2 Mountain
• 2 Glimmervoid
• 4 Darksteel Citadel
• 4 Blinkmoth Nexus
• 3 Inkmoth Nexus

Spells (20)

• 3 Shrapnel Blast
• 2 Steelshaper's Gift
• 4 Cranial Plating
• 3 Springleaf Drum
• 4 Mox Opal
• 4 Galvanic Blast

Sideboard

• 4 Blood Moon
• 1 Ancient Grudge
• 4 Ethersworn Canonist
• 2 Spellskite
• 1 Torpor Orb
• 3 Whipflare

Possible Changes: The Nexus count in the main can be swapped. The last Steel Overseer is also flexible. In the sideboard, the third Whipflare, fourth Blood Moon, and the Torpor Orb are negotiable. I would probably want one or two more Ancient Grudges if anything.

Splinter Twin

Ari Lax

Test deck on 01-15-2012

Modern

Creatures (15)

• 4 Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
• 4 Pestermite
• 3 Spellskite
• 4 Deceiver Exarch

Lands (24)

• 2 Mountain
• 5 Island
• 2 Shivan Reef
• 4 Steam Vents
• 1 Cascade Bluffs
• 3 Misty Rainforest
• 4 Scalding Tarn
• 3 Sulfur Falls

Spells (21)

• 4 Sleight of Hand
• 4 Serum Visions
• 3 Remand
• 4 Dispel
• 2 Flame Slash
• 4 Splinter Twin

Sideboard

• 3 Blood Moon
• 2 Echoing Truth
• 1 Remand
• 3 Shattering Spree
• 2 Firespout
• 2 Spell Pierce
• 2 Flame Slash

Possible Changes: The number of Misty Rainforest main might be too high, and the eight cards that aren’t playsets are adjustable for different metagames, but that is it. Also, dear god, do not play Pact of Negation. They are going to fight your Exarchs on their end steps usually; this does not work out well for you. The only things that are good to Pact are Negates and the like that can only hit your combo the turn you are going off. The sideboard, unlike the main deck, is very flexible. The only things I would be sure to keep are the Echoing Truths as a catchall for random garbage like Ghostly Prison and the Blood Moons because mising free wins is so good.

 

See you next week, where I will bring you some firsthand experiences and breakdowns from the PTQ here (not quite) in Indianapolis.