Another diverse, interesting month is behind us, and hopefully a good sign for the summer.
2004-04-24 Waterbury (150 players)
1. Food Chain Goblins
2. GroStill (Standstill GAT)
3. 4C Control
4. U/R Fish
5. U/R Fish
6. U/G Madness
7. Oshawa Stompy
8. Control Slavery
2004-04-24 Gothenburg (99 players)
1. Trinistax
2. Hulk Smash
3. Control Slavery
4. Workshop Slavery
5. Control Slavery
6. Food Chain Goblins
7. Hulk Smash
8. Mono Blue Control
2004-05-02 Turin (61 players)
1. TPS
2. wMUD
3. TPS
4. R/U/G Control Madness
5. Rector Tendrils
6. TPS
7. Trini-TnT
8. R/G Beatz
2004-05-09 Dulmen (92 players)
1. 4C Control
2. Charbelcher
3. Gro-A-Tog
4. 4C Control
5. Hulk Smash
6. 4C Control
7. 4C Control
8. Madness
2004-05-16 Bologna (51 players)
1. Hulk Smash
2. 4C Control
3. Hulk Smash
4. Dragon
5. R/U/G Control Madness
6. Stacker (Monobrown)
7. TnT
8. TPS
2004-05-16 Getafe (97 players)
1. Gro-A-Tog
2. U/R Landstill
3. IsoGro
4. 4C Control (Isochron)
5. U/R Landstill
6. Dragon
7. R/G Beatz
8. U/R Fish
Six tournaments totaled (51,61,92,97,99,150 = 550 players, 91.7 average players)
7 4C Control (1,2,3,4,4,6,7)
5 Hulk Smash (1,2,3,5,7)
4 TPS (1,3,6,8)
3 GAT (1,2,3)
3 Food Chain Goblins (1,6,6)
3 Control Slavery (3,5,8)
3 Fish (4,5,8)
3 Madness (4,5,8)
2 Landstill (2,5)
2 Dragon (4,6)
2 TnT (7,7)
2 RG Beatz (7,8)
1 Trinistax (1)
1 Charbelcher (2)
1 wMUD (2)
1 IsoGro (3)
1 Workshop Slavery (4)
1 Rector (5)
1 Stacker (6)
1 Oshawa Stompy (7)
1 Mono Blue Control (8)
(1) Archetype Concentration
Average Showing – Monthly Showings (Q4 2003 through May) [Deck Name]
10.9% – _8.8, 12.5, 10.0, _9.7, _9.7, 14.6 4C Control*
_8.8% – _1.3, _7.5, 12.5, 12.5, _8.5, 10.4 Hulk Smash
_7.0% – 17.5, _2.5, _5.0, _5.6, _6.9, _4.2 Dragon
_6.6% – 11.3, _2.5, _5.0, _4.2, _8.5, _8.3 Storm Combo
_6.1% – _3.8, 12.5, _7.5, _2.8, _4.2, _6.3 Madness
_5.3% – _7.5, _0.0, 12.5, _5.6, _4.2, _2.1 Rector
_5.1% – _6.3, _7.5, _7.5, _2.8, _4.2, _2.1 Stax
_4.6% – _5.0, _5.0, _5.0, _2.8, _5.6, _4.2 TnT
_3.9% – _0.0, _5.0, _5.0, _5.6, _1.4, _6.3 FCG / Gobvantage
_3.6% – _2.5, _7.5, _5.0, _2.8, _1.4, _2.1 Stacker
_3.5% – _3.8, _2.5, _0.0, _5.6, _2.8, _6.3 Fish
_3.4% – _5.0, _2.5, _5.0, _0.0, _1.4, _6.3 GAT (includes IsoGAT, Grostill)
_3.3% – _1.3, _2.5, _2.5, _2.8, _4.2, _6.3 Control Slavery
_3.1% – _0.0, _5.0, _2.5, _2.8, _4.2, _4.2 Landstill
_2.4% – _3.8, _5.0, _2.5, _1.4, _1.4, _0.0 Goblin Sligh
_2.4% – _0.0, _2.5, _2.5, _1.4, _5.6, _2.1 Workshop Slavery
_2.1% – _0.0, _2.5, _2.5, _1.4, _2.8, _2.1 MUD / wMUD
_2.0% – _2.5, _0.0, _2.5, _2.8, _4.2, _0.0 Vengeur Masque
_1.6% – _0.0, _2.5, _0.0, _2.8, _0.0, _4.2 R/G Beatz
_1.4% – _0.0, _5.0, _0.0, _1.4, _0.0, _2.1 Oshawa Stompy
_1.3% – _2.5, _0.0, _2.5, _2.8, _0.0, _0.0 SuperGro
_1.1% – _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _2.8, _1.4, _2.1 Charbelcher
_1.0% – _2.5, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _1.4, _2.1 Monoblue
_0.9% – _1.3, _0.0, _0.0, _2.8, _1.4, _0.0 Sligh
_0.9% – _0.0, _0.0, _2.5, _2.8, _0.0, _0.0 MadDragon
_0.9% – _0.0, _2.5, _0.0, _1.4, _1.4, _0.0 U/rPhid
_0.7% – _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _4.2, _0.0 Affinity
_0.7% – _0.0, _2.5, _0.0, _1.4, _0.0, _0.0 EBA
_0.7% – _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _4.2, _0.0 Modular
* – IsoKeeper merged with other 4C Control
As last month, a couple dozen decks have occasional appearances throughout this time period, but are less than 0.5% and thus aren’t tracked. The difference is that this month, only one archetype was added to this collection, and it was a narrowly tweaked deck in between the previously existing SuperGro and GAT archetypes (IsoGro). This is just a fraction of the number of”random” decks from previous months like March and April, so it could be interpreted as a sign of increasing metagame concentration into the above twenty-nine archetypes.
Data Period – # unique archetypes (per T8) [number of archetypes in each Top 8] = [average]
2003-09&10 – 20 archetypes (4.0 / T8) 6,8,5,7,8 = 6.8
—–Mirrodin legal
2003-11&12 – 20 archetypes (4.0 / T8) 4,7,5,6,8 = 6.0
—–Restriction: Burning Wish, Chrome Mox, Lion’s Eye Diamond
2004-Jan – 26 archetypes (4.4 / T8) 6,8,7,7,7 = 7.0
2004-Feb – 19 archetypes (3.8 / T8) 6,7,7,7,7 = 6.8
—–Darksteel legal
2004-Mar – 34 archetypes (3.8 / T8) 6,8,8,7,7,6,7,6,7 = 6.9
2004-Apr – 28 archetypes (3.1 / T8) 7,8,7,7,8,8,5,6,7 = 7.0
2004-May – 21 archetypes (3.5 / T8) 7,6,6,5,7,7 = 6.3
This month was very nearly the most concentrated on record by either of these measures, and while June might be affected by Fifth Dawn towards the end, it is my hope that by the end of August we will consider it more normal to have just six different decks in an average Top 8. (Problems that other formats have wet dreams about, right? I can see the R&D meeting right now:”You mean that every other Magic player ever has wished for more viability of weird decks, and these guys are wishing it would go away? Buuuuuh?”)
(Warning: If you’re not into this numbers stuff, you should probably skip down to the Watch List from here.) The last measure of concentration is the number of distinct cardnames. This, of course, has the same problem as dividing the number of played archetypes by the number of tournaments: more tournaments yields dramatically different results.
354 cardnames in Q4 2003 (10)
262 cardnames in January (5)
267 cardnames in February (5)
372 cardnames in March (9)
335 cardnames in April (9)
271 cardnames in May (6)
Despite the significant limits of this measure, it does show that May is probably the tightest month for card choices. We would expect that each additional Top 8 has a ‘diminishing return’ in terms of how many cards it adds to the played list–for example, January Dulmen had 120 different cardnames in the Top 8. The January Waterbury Top 8 (irrespective of the Dulmen count) contained 123 cardnames, despite being almost maximally diverse by Type One standards. January’s total is just over twice that, with four additional tournaments; January and February will be our baseline as the smallest available data sets.
So for our smaller samples (January and February), the average second through fifth tournament added onto the first adds a little over 35 cardnames. In the larger samples (March and April), adding on the sixth through ninth tournaments adds on average about 22 more cardnames each. (This even holds for the 2003 data, within reason.) By this measure, May accumulated fewer cardnames than we would predict for six Top 8s, and thus was”tighter” in choosing what should be the most powerful cards.
(2) Pip’s Watch List
In terms of appearances per Top 8:
Jan., Feb., Mar., Apr., May
_2.8, _3.4, _3.1, _3.3, _4.0 – 24 Yawgmoth’s Will
10.4, _8.5, 10.2, _9.3, 13.8 – 83 Mana Drain
_5.2, _7.4, _6.3, _6.3, _8.5 – 51 Cunning Wish
_3.0, _3.2, _3.4, _2.1, _4.5 – 27 Intuition
_7.8, _6.4, _4.7, _8.9, _4.2 – 25 Mishra’s Workshop
_6.4, _4.0, _4.0, _3.6, _4.0 – 24 Bazaar of Baghdad
_1.6, _5.6, _4.0, _4.7, _4.0 – 24 Dark Ritual
_2.2, _3.8, _3.0, _2.1, _3.3 – 20 Psychatog
_2.4, _3.4, _1.3, _3.8, _3.2 – 19 Thirst for Knowledge
_1.6, _0.0, _3.0, _1.3, _1.8 – 11 Elvish Spirit Guide
There was a sharp increase in Yawgmoth’s Will, Mana Drain, Cunning Wish, and Intuition… all while Hulk Smash is faring less well in the tournament scene than it was in March. The answer to the puzzle is partially GAT, partially Control Slaver, and majorly 4C Control (new marketing slogan:”Keeper: Renamed so it doesn’t refer to Elemental Augury a mere millennium after it should have been”).
Is this cause for concern? Well, in the past, Gush was restricted when its use in Gro-A-Tog decks comprised 36.7% of Top 8s, though you should note that Steve included smaller tournaments than I would have in his analysis of two years ago. If Mana Drain is now at an average occurrence rate where there will be three or more decks centering on it in every Top 8, then the card has hit this threshold and must receive even more careful scrutiny.
One key difference is that Mana Drain is much more reactive than Gush. Gush can be used to save your Underground Sea from a Wasteland, but that doesn’t make it any less capable of proactively winning the game. Mana Drain, as a prerequisite for effectiveness, requires the opponent to play a spell (Remember Animaniacs? Good Idea: Draining your opponent’s spell. Bad Idea: Draining your own spell.), but it still produces acceleration on your next main phase, enabling the large spells in control decks to go off very early in the game.
Because of this different behavior, Mana Drain is much less likely to be restricted for domination, as opposed to distortion, which it most certainly is guilty of to some extent. Raphael Caron (formerly known as K-Run), the creator of the White-heavy Parfait control deck, has long been an advocate for Drain’s restriction based on its overt impact on the mana curve of every deck in the format. I am inclined to agree with his statements about the effect on mana curves. Certainly the average casting cost hovering just over two inclines one to agree that spells as expensive or moreso than Drain are difficult to justify (and this average is so low despite the upward bias of various ACC cards counting as their listed mana cost).
The second key difference between Drain and Gush is that Mana Drain forms the center of several decks, not just one. The recent Type Two Skullclamp banning* sets a rough benchmark of 75% use on a metagame-distorting card employed by many decks. Obviously, Mana Drain is not at this level and might never be, but that doesn’t mean that 75% is the lower limit for restriction, or that we should ignore the singleton factor: you’re only losing three copies of the card, so perhaps the threshold for action should be lower. [The threshold should be much lower for Type I, if only because of the increased card pool and the standard metagame diversity Pip has been referring to. – Knut]
* – As an aside, did anyone else notice that a T2-relevant announcement was posted at midnight Eastern time, whereas for the T1-relevant December announcement it went up only in the mid-afternoon of the first of the month? I have no idea if they were having one last meeting or some other perfectly reasonable explanation exists; I just found the difference curious.
So while Drain is distorting, it is uncertain whether it will require action, and fortunately the time to decide again isn’t for another couple of months. I’m practically drooling waiting for the GenCon Top 8 for this reason alone, thanks to the invaluable data it will provide. (If GenCon is huge enough, I’m seriously considering a Top 16 inclusion rather than a Top 8. We shall see how many people show up.)
(3) The Finals Effect
March and April showed a big jump in events compared to previous months, but May slipped a little, which is probably fortunate for Type One players’ grades. You know that time of the year when college students actually *gasp* skip drinking for a couple of nights? Well if they’re not boozin’, they’re certainly not driving several hours for a large Type One tournament. Thus far, June looks like it’s resuming a full schedule of tournaments, and we’re entering convention season, so soon I might even have more than one North American tournament in a month.
(For the record, I don’t do either: booze or road trips. Both are highly overrated, and instead people should be using Star Trek: The Motion Picture as a soporific while enjoying the warm, comforting artificiality of a Hot Pocket. End of sermon.)
(4) Card Totals
Thanks go to Jeek, the Sweater Monkey for his Perl mastery. And of course Stefan Iwasienko a.k.a. Womprax, the morphling.de typing slave.
Missing decklists: 1 R/G Beatz.
73 Island
29 Forest
22 Mountain
7 Swamp
1 Plains
40 Mox Sapphire
39 Ancestral Recall
38 Black Lotus
36 Sol Ring
35 Time Walk
33 Mox Emerald
33 Mox Jet
31 Mox Ruby
30 Strip Mine
27 Mox Pearl
26 Demonic Tutor
23 Library of Alexandria
22 Mystical Tutor
24 Yawgmoth’s Will
20 Mana Crypt
19 Fact or Fiction
19 Vampiric Tutor
12 Mana Vault
12 Mind Twist
11 Tolarian Academy
10 Balance
10 Tinker
8 Lotus Petal
8 Memory Jar
8 Timetwister
7 Gush
6 Necropotence
6 Wheel of Fortune
5 Windfall
5 Yawgmoth’s Bargain
4 Mind’s Desire
2 Chrome Mox
2 Entomb
2 Grim Monolith
2 Lion’s Eye Diamond
1 Black Vise
1 Burning Wish
1 Channel
1 Crop Rotation
1 Demonic Consultation
1 Regrowth
1 Time Spiral
136 Force of Will
104 Brainstorm
102 Wasteland
83 Mana Drain
81 Underground Sea
78 Polluted Delta
75 Volcanic Island
73 Red Elemental Blast
51 Cunning Wish
48 Flooded Strand
48 Tropical Island
45 Chalice of the Void
44 Accumulated Knowledge
42 Duress
42 Fire/Ice – Official WTF of the month. Why doesn’t every deck run this by now?
42 Rack and Ruin
36 Goblin Welder
35 Null Rod
34 Tormod’s Crypt
33 Misdirection
32 Naturalize
32 Wooded Foothills
30 Stifle
29 Blue Elemental Blast
27 Gorilla Shaman
27 Intuition
27 Mishra’s Factory
27 Tundra
26 Taiga
25 Mishra’s Workshop
25 Squee, Goblin Nabob
24 Bazaar of Baghdad
24 Dark Ritual
24 Skeletal Scrying
22 Standstill
21 Psychatog
21 Swords to Plowshares
21 Trinisphere
20 Basking Rootwalla
20 Pernicious Deed
20 Wild Mongrel
19 City of Brass
19 Thirst for Knowledge
18 Blood Moon
18 Deep Analysis
17 Exalted Angel
16 Circular Logic
16 Gemstone Mine
16 Oxidize
16 Quirion Dryad
16 Survival of the Fittest
15 Faerie Conclave
14 Artifact Mutation
14 Flametongue Kavu
13 Chain of Vapor
13 Coffin Purge
13 Pyrostatic Pillar
13 Triskelion
12 Arrogant Wurm
12 Curiosity
12 Hurkyl’s Recall
12 Smokestack
12 Spiketail Hatchling
12 Sword of Fire and Ice
12 Tangle Wire
11 Elvish Spirit Guide
11 Juggernaut
10 Ancient Tomb
10 Daze
10 Decree of Justice
10 Echoing Truth
10 Hydroblast
10 Mindslaver
10 Tendrils of Agony
10 Xantid Swarm
9 Grim Lavamancer
9 Nevinyrral’s Disk
9 Rebuild
8 Cloud of Faeries
8 Disenchant
8 Food Chain
8 Goblin Lackey
8 Goblin Piledriver
8 Goblin Recruiter
8 Goblin Ringleader
8 Metalworker
8 Roar of the Wurm
7 Goblin Warchief
7 Ground Seal
7 Isochron Scepter
7 Karn, Silver Golem
7 Maze of Ith
7 Platinum Angel
7 Pyroblast
7 Viashino Heretic
7 Worldgorger Dragon
6 Animate Dead
6 Careful Study
6 Counterspell
6 Lightning Bolt
6 Necromancy
6 Powder Keg
6 River Boa
6 Sphere of Resistance
6 Wonder
5 Anger
5 Bayou
5 Berserk
5 Damping Matrix
5 Duplicant
5 Goblin Matron
5 Masticore
5 Merchant Scroll
5 Plaguebearer
5 Rushing River
5 Shivan Reef
5 Su-Chi
5 Sylvan Library
4 Academy Rector
4 Aquamoeba
4 Blastoderm
4 Cabal Therapy
4 Chromatic Sphere
4 Dwarven Miner
4 Enlightened Tutor
4 Goblin Charbelcher
4 Goblin Incinerator
4 Hidden Gibbons
4 Kird Ape
4 Land Grant
4 Mogg Fanatic
4 Mogg Salvage
4 Opt
4 Pentavus
4 Petrified Field
4 Siege-Gang Commander
4 Skirk Prospector
4 Smother
4 Solemn Simulacrum
4 Stupefying Touch
4 Tinder Wall
4 Troll Ascetic
4 Tsabo’s Web
4 Verdant Force
4 Viridian Zealot
4 Voidmage Prodigy
3 Ambassador Laquatus
3 Back to Basics
3 Bloodstained Mire
3 Compost
3 Dance of the Dead
3 Defense Grid
3 Diabolic Edict
3 Dismantling Blow
3 Ebony Charm
3 Fiery Temper
3 Gempalm Incinerator
3 Gilded Lotus
3 Impulse
3 Meltdown
3 Ophidian
3 Orim’s Chant
3 Razorfin Hunter
3 Spike Feeder
3 Sundering Titan
3 Viridian Shaman
2 Brain Freeze
2 City of Traitors
2 Compulsion
2 Cursed Scroll
2 Earthquake
2 Echoing Decay
2 Firestorm
2 Flying Men
2 Frantic Search
2 Future Sight
2 Gaea’s Blessing
2 Gilded Drake
2 Goblin Tinkerer
2 Goblin Vandal
2 Living Wish
2 Mind’s Eye
2 Mogg Maniac
2 Morphling
2 Pyrite Spellbomb
2 Root Maze
2 Scrubland[/author]“][author name="Scrubland"]Scrubland[/author]
2 Sigil of Sleep
2 Sleight of Hand
2 Sphere of Law
2 Stormbind
2 Suq’Ata Firewalker
2 Terminate
2 The Abyss
2 Uktabi Orangutan
1 Aura Fracture
1 Badlands
1 Bone Shredder
1 Circle of Protection: Red
1 Control Magic
1 Coretapper
1 Darksteel Colossus
1 Deconstruct
1 Disrupt
1 Elvish Lyrist
1 Ensnare
1 Goblin Sharpshooter
1 Incinerate
1 Lightning Greaves
1 Lim-Dul’s Vault
1 Meditate
1 Memnarch
1 Phyrexian Colossus
1 Phyrexian Negator
1 Plated Slagwurm
1 Quirion Ranger
1 Renounce
1 Rule of Law
1 Scavenger Folk
1 Seal of Cleansing
1 Shadow Rift
1 Shattering Pulse
1 Slice and Dice
1 Snuff Out
1 Sword to Plowshares
1 Teferi’s Response
1 Underground River
1 Wail of the Nim
Philip Stanton
a.k.a.”Dr. Sylvan”, Moderator on TheManaDrain.com
prstanto at uiuc.edu