Legacy Threshold, Part V: Reflections on Grand Prix: Lille

The Day(s) of the Mongoose: December 17 and 18^th, 2005.

The Place: Lille, France.

The Format: Legacy.

Honestly, I’m feeling a little bit like Friggin’ Rizzo right now. The deck I’ve written about and promoted on SCG and The Mana Drain for more than a year was shuffled and played by half of Europe last weekend.

While we’ll never know the exact number of Threshold decks that were played on Day 1 of the 937-person Grand Prix (Lille), we do know that 36 Threshold decks made the cut to Day 2. In terms of success and popularity, only Goblins was close with 32 players. And tied for third, with 7 appearances apiece: Sligh and Affinity.

A strong Goblins showing was foreseen by all, but Threshold was the runaway sleeper deck that only a few people, such as yours truly, predicted would be out in force. And remarkably, Threshold took First, Second, and Third Place of the Grand Prix.

Before we get any further, let’s look at the numbers. (This is all derived from Wizards’ superb Lille coverage. Props to Craig Jones and the rest of the coverage staff.) But I should point out that my analysis of the Top 128 decklists, my primary source of data, differs slightly from Wizards’ breakdown of the decks in Day 2.

For instance, according to Wizards’ event coverage, 36 Threshold decks made the cut to Day 2, though I could only find evidence of 34 from decklists, and placements for only 33 of those decks. Emanuel Sutor mysteriously disappears from the final standings, though he’s playing U/G/W according to the Top 128 decklists and he’s even mentioned in the Day 2 Event Blog. Go figure. In any event, I’ll only be using data from the Threshold decks that are accounted in the Top 128 decklists with players that appear in the finals standings, since I can at least defend my methods.

Lille Threshold Analysis

Of the 33 people that played Threshold in the Top 128, 19 played U/G/R, 12 played U/G/W, and 2 people (with one winning the whole enchilada), played 4c Threshold: U/G/R/W.

U/G/R Standings: 3, 9, 17, 27, 43, 57, 61, 68, 72, 74, 85, 86, 93, 97, 100, 101, 110, 124, 140

Number of U/G/R Threshold decks played in the Top 128: 19

Average Standing: 71.95^th Place

Median Standing: 74^th Place

U/G/W Standings: 2, 15, 18, 21, 22, 35, 39, 48, 67, 82, 84, 90.

Number of U/G/W Threshold decks played in the Top 128: 12

Average Standing: 43.58^th Place

Median Standing: 37^th Place

U/G/R/W Standings: 1, 34

Number of U/G/R/W Threshold decks played in the Top 128: 2

Average Standing: 17.50^th Place

Median Standing: 17.50^th Place

The U/G/R version of Threshold had seven more players than U/G/W (19 to 12 U/G/W players), but on average, the U/G/W players placed much higher (43.58^th vs. 71.95^th Place). And even accounting for the difference in sample size, it should be clear that U/G/W was the better performing of the two 3-color Threshold decks. If I could, I’d attempt some regression analysis to prove this, but it should be clear from the available data without using the fancy buttons on my calculator.

Clearly, the best performing of all of the variations was the 4-color version of Threshold: U/G/R/W. While it risks losing to mana screw – more so than any other version of Threshold – it has the greatest amount of versatility in terms of removal, threats, and sideboard tools.

It also has the advantage in the mirror. Being able to name “Swords to Plowshares” with your Meddling Mage and still having access to your own removal breaks the symmetry of that card in the match. Furthermore, while your mana base is more vulnerable to non-basic hate, you’ll rarely need to concern yourself with that liability since Threshold seldom runs Wasteland (though the first place deck did). So even that drawback isn’t an issue.

Incidentally, the mirror is all about Mental Note and Tormod’s Crypt. Achieving threshold as quickly as possible and keeping your opponent from maintaining seven cards in their graveyard is how this match is won and lost. Judicious use of Meddling Mage will also give you an edge.

A Quick Aside: U/G/R vs. U/G/W Threshold

When deciding to play U/G/R or U/G/W, players have to weigh the options that each splash offers:

White Splash

Swords to Plowshares

Meddling Mage

Armageddon

Worship

Red Splash

Red Elemental Blast/Pyroblast

Pyroclasm

Those are the significant differences. To compensate for the loss of Swords to Plowshares, the Red version substitutes Fire/Ice, Magma Jet and/or Lightning Bolt. And to combat a horde of opposing Goblins, the White-splash version often runs the sub par Tivadar’s Crusade as a replacement for Pyroclasm. But U/G/W doesn’t have an efficient analog to replace Red Elemental Blast. By the same token, U/G/R’s best hope to combat combo decks, lacking access to Meddling Mage, is to race with their direct damage. It’s not as elegant, but it works sometimes. End Aside.

The main benefit of running UGRW is that you don’t have to choose between the two splashes and consequently be forced to run inferior alternatives to the most powerful weapons available.

The Lessons of Summersberger

Here’s the winning list from Grand Prix: Lille.

Threshold

Helmut Summersberger

1st Place at Grand Prix on 12-18-2005

Legacy

Creatures (12)

Lands (18)

Spells (30)

Sideboard

The success of the Summersberger list conveniently answers several questions that have been the topic of heated debate at The Mana Drain and The Source:

1. Should you splash Red or White? Mise well run both.

2. Is 17 or 18 lands optimal? 18. (All three Top 8 Threshold decks ran 18 lands.)

3. Should you run 6, 7, or 8 fetchlands? 8

4. What should you choose as your two-mana card drawer: Accumulated Knowledge or Predict? Neither.

5. Do you need a fat finisher (Mystic Enforcer or Fledgling Dragon)? Nope.

6. ‘Still no Quirion Dryad? Hell no!

Eighteen lands and eight fetchlands obviates color screw and land screw. The extra fetchlands also give you a slight edge in the mirror as well. But ultimately, it’s about mana stability and the ability to get your basic lands into play.

With results for only two 4c Threshold decks, it’s ambiguous if this is the new direction for the deck, but it certainly deserves consideration and further testing.

Deck Technology at Lille

I would be remiss to pour through dozens of successful lists and not report on some of the more interesting sideboard and maindeck cards people were running in their Threshold decks at Lille.

My personal favorite teched-out deck was Daniel Krutil’s U/G/W list, who placed second after losing to Summersberger in the finals.

Threshold

Daniel Krutil

2nd Place at Grand Prix on 12-18-2005

Legacy

Creatures (16)

Lands (18)

Spells (26)

Sideboard

Worship

(2^nd Place, maindeck) With Nimble Mongoose, Worship becomes an easy auto-win since so few decks are running maindeck enchantment removal at the moment. With Worship on the board you can hide behind your mongeese and swing with Mystic Enforcer for the win. Or you can just let your opponent deck themselves.

Galina’s Knight

(2^nd, 22^nd, 35^th, 39^th Place) While not as demoralizing as Silver Knight against decks that care, Galina’s Knight is an annoying speed bump to Goblins and Sligh all the same. But being unable to block Goblin Piledriver is a dangerous liability.

Umezawa’s Jitte

(2^nd Place) Jitte is obviously underwhelming with Nimble Mongoose, but this equipment is so busted I can see running it if you have a critical mass of creatures (around 14).

Isochron Scepter

(3^rd and 9^th Place) Some may remember I was running this in the first iteration of this deck. The Stick is certainly a lot better when you can imprint Fire/Ice and Lightning Bolt. Nonetheless, this is an excellent piece of technology for UGR players to consider, since maindeck artifact removal is at it’s nadir in Legacy. It apparently worked for Nicolas LaBarre (3^rd Place).

Other unconventional card choices: Exalted Angel (21^st Place), Serendib Efreet (35^th Place), Vinelasher Kudzu (39^th and 68^th Place), Kataki (39^th Place), Vedalken Shackles (57^th and 61^st Place), Engineered Explosives (57^th Place), Telling Time (82^nd Place) and Blastoderm (100^th Place).

As for me, I’m going to continue to develop the deck I started long ago: U/G/W Threshold. Though I’m happy to say that I finally traded for a playset of Volcanic Islands (deepest thanks to my buddy Rod McCracken), but playing U/G/R hasn’t been especially satisfying for me. Anyway, here’s my list after the changes I made since Part 3 of this series.

Legacy U/G/W Threshold, 2K6

Dan Spero (a.k.a. Bardo)

4 Serum Visions

4 Brainstorm

4 Mental Note

2 Sleight of Hand

4 Force of Will

4 Daze

2 Counterspell

4 Swords to Plowshares

1 Engineered Explosives

4 Nimble Mongoose

4 Werebear

3 Meddling Mage

2 Mystic Enforcer

4 Flooded Strand

2 Polluted Delta

2 Windswept Heath

3 Tropical Island

3 Tundra

2 Island

1 Forest

1 Plains

Sideboard

3 Hydroblast

3 Pithing Needle

2 Tivadar’s Crusade

2 Tormod’s Crypt

2 Worship

1 Naturalize

1 Meddling Mage

1 Mystic Enforcer

I dropped the consistently under-performing Accumulated Knowledge for the graveyard-growing goodness of Mental Note – a key card in the mirror and against aggressive decks, like Goblins, in general. Otherwise, the cantrip engine remains unchanged, with Sleight of Hand remaining an easy card to replace for the specialized tools in the sideboard.

My lone Engineered Explosives (EE) has remained through all iterations of this deck in the past year. Targets abound and 2-for-1, 3-for-1, and even 4-for-1 trades are not uncommon. It’s also a convenient proxy for Naturalize in the maindeck. And more than just about any other card in the deck, EE is tech for the randomness that is common in the format.

The changes to the creature-base are nothing revolutionary. To make room for a set of Mongeese, I moved a Meddling Mage and a Mystic Enforcer to the sideboard. And with the Mongeese back in the deck, Worship becomes some attractive tech that I borrowed from Lille.

The mana is as stable now as never, though I’d eventually like to replace the basic Plains for a fourth Tropical Island once Wasteland is less ubiquitous. The eight fetchlands are still superb in assuring early threshold and allowing you to have UWG consistently available on turn 2.

The Downfall of Threshold?

While as good now as it was when I was writing about it a year ago, Threshold has been able to fly under the format’s radar because of its inconspicuous cards and harmless looking decklists. Really, what else runs jank like Serum Vision and Werebear? And when people lost to Threshold, few people stopped to analyze how and why they lost; they just went back to their pet deck thinking thoughts like: “Good old Landstill. Nothing beats Landstill.” Legacy players are a wretchedly stubborn lot.

But in the end, Threshold‘s success and popularity may be its downfall, for the hate is sure to rise. If you’re so inclined, you can attack Threshold‘s graveyard, robbing it of the power of its efficient beaters with Tormod’s Crypt, Phyrexian Furnace, and Withered Wretch. You can attack the deck’s mana development with Boil, Blood Moon, and Suppression Field. Back to Basics isn’t as painful since Threshold has adapted to coexist with the Wastelands in Goblins and Landstill. Accordingly, basic lands abound in Threshold, with anywhere from 2-5 in each deck and an unusually large number of fetchlands to find them. But Suppression Field is a true beating, forcing me to drop my Seals of Cleanings (Landstill tech) for the non-activated blandness of Naturalize, whose colored mana cost can be paid with Werebear mana. Furthermore, you can attack the deck’s cantrip engine with Chalice of the Void set to “1” or with Pyrostatic Pillar. Alternately, you can go after the win conditions with the one-sided Wrath of God known as Perish. And let’s not even mention the back-breaking hosing of Haunting Echoes.

It’s worth noting that all of the anti-Threshold weaponry can be foiled. The graveyard hosers can be obviated with Damping Matrix and Null Rod or Cursed Totem. Engineered Explosives goes a long way to solving the Chalice of the Void problem, and is a polymorphous answer to a variety of other threats. And the costlier Threshold-hosers, like Boil and Haunting Echoes, can fought with the deck’s ample countermagic, particularly Daze. In any event, time will tell how Threshold will fare in an environment that is hostile towards it.

The Best Aggro-Control Deck in Legacy

If Lille demonstrated anything, it wasn’t that Threshold is necessarily the best deck in Legacy; rather, Threshold is the premier aggro-control deck in the format. And that is a prestigious pedigree indeed. Legacy will always need a strong aggro-control deck since the extraordinary depth of the card pool is always poised to produce some degenerate combination deck. But with the format at the ready with a viable deck packing maindeck Meddling Magi, Pithing Needles, and an arsenal of countermagic, the health and stability of the format is assured for the time being.

Cheers and thanks for reading.

Dan Spero

‘Bardo’ on The Mana Drain and MTGSalvation

‘Bardo Trout’ on The Source and the SCG Forums

email me at ‘[email protected]’

Appendix: Previous Articles in This Series

Part 1: Design and Construction

Part 2: Tactics and Strategy

Part 3: Tuning the Maindeck and Sideboard

Part 4: Sideboard Guide

Acknowledgements: Thanks to Chris Coppola (a.k.a. Machinus) for the read-through and for reminding me that Stax is my worst nightmare.