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Legacy Duel for Duals III, Day 1: Metagame Analysis and Breakdown

Historically, SCG Duel for Duals (DFD) have been dominated by Goblins and Reset High Tide (“Solidarity”), with each of those decks winning the past two DFDs. How did they do this time?

On the first day of the largest Legacy tournament in the past several months, StarCityGames’ Duel for Duals III, seventy-five players battled it out to see who would walk away with the 100 Revised dual lands that were up for grabs.

Historically, SCG Duel for Duals (DFD) have been dominated by Goblins and Reset High Tide (“Solidarity”), with each of those decks winning the past two DFDs. How did they do this time?

Star City Games Duel for Duals III
Richmond, Virginia
July 8, 2006
75 Players

Top 8
1: U/G/w Threshold
2: Reset High Tide ("Solidarity")
3: B/r Suicide
4: Angel Stompy
5: r/b/u/g Affinity
6: R/g Goblins
7: U/b/g/r Psychatog
8: Reset High Tide ("Solidarity")

When the dust had settled, it was Legacy superstar Threshold that walked away with The Prize – making it the first Threshold deck to place in the Top 8 of a SCG Legacy event.

I. Metagame Breakdown

Sorting all seventy five decks by numbers and category offers this data:

Aggro (24 decks, 32% of total):
Goblins 11111111111111 (14) *
Affinity 11111 (5) *
Angel Stompy 11 (2) *
Mono-Green Aggro (“Stompy”) 11 (2)
White Weenie 1 (1)

Aggro-Control (23 decks, 31% of total):
Threshold 111111111 (9) *
B/W Confidant (“Deadguy Ale”) 1111111 (7)
Survival 11111 (5)
B/r Suicide 1 (1) *
U/R Fish 1 (1)

Combo (18 decks, 24% of total):
Reset High Tide (“Solidarity”) 1111111 (7) **
Burn 111111 (6)
Ill-Gotten Gains Combo (“IGGy Pop”) 11 (2)
Aluren 1 (1)
Magistrate’s Scepter Combo 1 (1)
Elves! 1 (1)

Control (10 decks, 13% of total):
Mono-Black Control: 111 (3)
W/R Control (“Rifter”) 11 (2)
Mono-Blue Control 1 (1)
Psychatog 1 (1) *
G/W Slide 1 (1)
B/G Control 1 (1)
Life from the Loam Control 1 (1)

(* Denotes Top 8 Placement.)

As you can see, I’ve taken considerable liberty on categorizing the decks above. Psychatog is arguably combo-control; Affinity can be classified as aggro-combo, along with Goblins and Elves!; Angel Stompy nearly qualifies as aggro-control; Survival deserves a category all to itself; and many will blanch when they see I’ve listed Burn as a combination deck. As in all evolving formats, hybridization makes discrete differentiation of archetypal classes somewhat obsolete. But if you take issue with my categorization, let me know about it in the forums.

II. General Analysis

The Top 8 was richly diverse, wherein Aggro (Goblins, Affinity and Angel Stompy), Aggro-Control (Threshold and Suicide), Combo (Reset High Tide, times two) and Control (Psychatog) were all represented. If the healthy format is measured by the viability of the largest number of strategies, then Legacy is mighty healthy indeed. This also confirms that there is some cohesion to the known tier structure as the same decks consistently make the Top 8 at large events (except for Tog, which is largely underplayed). But this sense of cohesion may just be an illusion, owing to my next point.

The five most heavily played decks (in order of popularity): Goblins (14 total, one in the Top 8), Threshold (9 total, one in the Top 8), B/W Confidant (7 total, highest placing: 15th Place), Reset High Tide (7 total, two in the Top 8), mono-Red Burn (6 total, highest placing: 24th Place). Assuming they’re well-constructed and played, it makes sense, statistically, that the most popular decks would make Top 8. But this bit of data tells us that the power of B/W Confidant is waning, and that Burn was just a bad choice for this event.

Despite its popularity, I’m surprised Goblins didn’t do better. Widely considered to be the best deck in the format, and with fourteen pilots, having only one Goblin deck in the Top 8 is noteworthy (played by none other than TMD Legacy Adept Chris Coppola a.k.a. “Machinus,” who was also the only person to Top 8 on both days) [His report on the event is appearing on Monday! – Craig]. Between the fourteen total Goblin decks, their average placement was 34.57th Place – marginally better than Threshold’s average of 42.11th Place.

Going by the numbers, the most successful deck was Angel Stompy. While only two people played it, one made it to the semifinals (4th Place), and the other placed 12th. The deck has a favorable match-up against other Aggro decks and has a fighting chance against control with its aggressive clock and Armageddon in the sideboard. For this event, Glowrider, supplemented with Rule of Law, was the choice of weaponry against Storm-based Combo (i.e. Reset High Tide and IGGy Pop). It’s a remarkably flexible deck – expect to see more of it.

For reasons that confound me, mono-Red Burn is a deck that Legacy players adore. I know it’s cheap to build and easy to play, but seriously, it just curls up and dies to so much out there. The next time you sleeve that puppy up, do yourself a favor and think twice about it. Better yet, just play something else.

Affinity was the only deck that I was surprised to see in the Top 8; I assumed most people would just play Goblins if they wanted to turn their dudes sideways. That a version would eschew Aether Vial in favor of Paradise Mantle, and was the best of the bunch, surprises me even more. For the time being, the Berserk/Fling plan seems to be the way to go.

Of the Threshold decks, the ones that ran Mental Note (average 28.75th Place), on average, did somewhat better than those that played Portent (average 50.50th Place). A micro-analysis of Threshold at DFD3:

Place Colors Land Count Mental Note Portent Predict
1
U/G/w
17
3
0
4
10
U/G/r/w
18
4
0
0
26
U/G/w
17
0
4
4
41
U/G/b
19
0
4
4
49
U/G/r/w
18
4
0
0
55
U/G/r/w
17
3
0
0 (but 4 AK)
62
U/G/w
18
0
0
3
64
U/G/w
17
0
4
4
71
U/G/w
17
0
3
4

I’m not sure which, if any, questions this answers; but I suggest that people who have not already done so, give Mental Note the testing it deserves.

The winning list:


My observations on the winning list.
If you’re going to run Mental Note, and I suggest you do, run the whole set. Mental Note is at its best when Thresh is weakest – the first few turns – so you want to maximize your odds of drawing it. Also, there’s no good reason to run anything less than four Serum Visions. Otherwise this is a respectable list, and it did win the whole tournament, but personally, I’d find room for an additional land. In the sideboard, four Tormod’s Crypt is probably overkill, and I recommend Worship in one or two of those slots. Or you can run Tivadar’s Crusade for the inevitable Goblins match. In any case, well done Bennett!

Surprisingly, no one played the U/G/r version of Threshold; everyone went with U/G/w Thresh or the 4-color First Place GP: Lille deck (Summersberger’s U/G/r/w), not including the one case of Scott Scheurer’s black-splash Threshold. But looking at the field in retrospect, the three-color U/G/r version would have done well, since Pyroclasm and an arsenal of burn – complemented with countermagic and Thresh’s hyper-efficient namesake beaters – trump most of the aggro decks prevalent on Day One.

Only one player was brave enough to run Psychatog, and he made the cut to the Top 8. I don’t understand the aversion of Legacy players to Tog, but after considerable testing and development, I think it can be one of the true powerhouses of the format. (Shameless self-promotion.)

And rounding out the bottom of the barrel, in last place: the casual classic “ElfBall!” I can’t say I’m sorry to see it do so poorly.

Finally, I’d like to thank Pete and rest of the StarCityGames crew for running these events. Properly supported, Legacy has the potential to be among the most popular and enjoyable Magic formats. Additional Grand Prix-level support from Wizards of the Coast and regular events such as the DFDs will only help Legacy achieve its potential.

Dan Spero
”Bardo” on The Mana Drain, MTG Salvation, and The Source
”Bardo Trout” in the SCG Forums
Team Reflection
bardo49 at yahoo dot com

Bonus Section: Random Trivial Data

1. Number of Force of Wills in the Top 8: 16
2. Number of Wastelands in the Top 8: 9
3. The most common basic land type in the Top 8: Island (25); no Forests!
4. The most common dual land in the Top 8: Tropical Island (8)
5. The most common fetch land in the Top 8: Flooded Strand (13)
6. In the Top 8, the most popular maindeck cards, by color:
a. Blue card: Force of Will (16)
b. White card: Swords to Plowshares (8)
c. Green card: (4-way tie) Nimble Mongoose, Werebear, Exploration, Life from the Loam (4 each)
d. Red card: See Goblins, the 4-ofs
e. Black card: See B/r Suicide, the 4-ofs; plus 4 Disciples of the Vault
f. Gold card: (2-way tie) Meddling Mage, Psychatog (3 each)
g. Artifact: (2-way tie) Aether Vial, Paradise Mantle! (4 each)
7. In the Top 8, the most popular sideboard card: Hydroblast/Blue Elemental Blast (12)