Kaladesh previews are here, which means that it’s finally time for my financial set review! I’ll be covering the thirteen currently-spoiled mythic rares today, as well as my initial impressions of the set. I’ll get to the last two mythics next week, as well as the rares and relevant uncommons.
Before we get to the cards themselves, let’s talk about what normally happens to the value of cards in large fall sets. Historically, prices tend to go up a little after the first week of SCG Tour® results and a lot during/after the Standard Pro Tour. Many of today’s preorder prices will look like a bargain three weeks from now. After that, though, even the best cards in the set start dropping in price. Eventually, the set will likely bottom out around the holiday season. This is the trend that every new set tends to follow these days, but the fluctuations are often more extreme with fall set cards, since a whole lot of fair-weather Standard players only really check in during this part of the year.
Fall is also peak drafting season, so the supply of Kaladesh cards entering the market should be massive, especially compared to other Standard-legal expansions. When all is said and done, Eldritch Moon will have had a total of 70 days as the current draft set, some of which was overshadowed by Conspiracy: Take the Crown, and most of which took place as a two-pack draft set during the dog days of summer. Kaladesh will get 112 days in the spotlight, plus another 98 days as an extra pack in Aether Revolt drafts.
Looking to throw a bunch of money at Standard right now? Go buy a playset of everything good from the powerful Eldritch Moon before touching a single Kaladesh card.
That said, these are the three best approaches to fall set finance for the value-conscious:
1) Target undervalued cards early, either during the preorder period or the first few weeks of play, and flip them during the Pro Tour hype period.
2) Buy what you need to finish your Standard decks, don’t worry much about prices, and play the cards until they stop being good and/or rotate out.
3) Ignore everything until the prices inevitably bottom out in mid-to-late December and then go on a shopping spree.
The problem with option #3 is that Kaladesh is a fantastic-looking set. There’s no way I’ll be able to wait that long before getting to tinker around with Aetherworks Marvel or burn people out with Chandra, Torch of Defiance.
Since holding off isn’t an option for most of us, the best advice I can give you is to be honest with yourself about your Magic budget and how much money you’re okay spending on cards that will likely lose most of their value. Part of why I like to flip cards year-round is so that I can buy a bunch of stuff in the fall without having to worry as much about where the value trends are heading.
With that out of the way, let’s talk about Kaladesh’s mythics, many of which are truly awesome. And yes, we’re starting with what looks like one of the most powerful cards ever printed:
Chandra, Torch of Defiance – $59.99
By my count, there have been 56 unique planeswalkers printed since the original Lorwyn Five were released. Of those, you would have been happy preordering exactly three of them at $60 each: Jace, the Mind Sculptor; Liliana of the Veil; and Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy.
Even then, only Jace, the Mind Sculptor would have been a slam-dunk buy at that price. Liliana was under $60 during most of her time in Standard, including a long stint under $20. Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy spent a few weeks between $80 and $100 but is currently a $28 card. For Chandra, Torch of Defiance to be a legitimately good buy at $60, it would probably have to be the second-best planeswalker of all time.
Could Chandra, Torch of Defiance really be that good? Red has been the weakest color in Standard for some time now, and that will have to change if Chandra is going to maintain a $60 price tag. She’d probably have to be the lynchpin of multiple top-tier decks and begin to flirt with Modern play in order to do that—sort of like Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy did last year. Even still, Chandra will be from a large, heavily opened fall set. Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy was in an under-opened core set.
Even still, it’s not impossible that Chandra will maintain a $60 price tag. She’s versatile, powerful, and was obviously printed as the flagship card for Kaladesh (awkward, considering that Kaladesh has an actual flagship.) If Chandra doesn’t see a lot of play in Standard, something went horribly awry in R&D. She will be good. She will probably be great.
But this is a financial set review, and I’m not sure I could recommend preordering anything short of actual Time Walk at $60.
$60, huh? Has it been in a pool?
My financial approach to the game is just too risk-averse for these sorts of buys. I love you, Chandra, but I’m trading you away if I open you at the Prerelease. We can reconnect around the holidays, okay?
Nissa, Vital Force – $24.99
The biggest problem with trying to predict future card prices is that they’re incredibly contextual. If Chandra, Torch of Defiance is actually a $60 card, there isn’t going to be much room for anything else in Kaladesh to be worth all that much. After all, the average price of the rare/mythic slot in a booster pack can’t be worth more than the cost of that sealed pack for very long. Otherwise, dealers will keep cracking packs until the price comes down.
That makes evaluating a card like Nissa, Vital Force trickier than usual. While she lacks the Modern upside of Chandra, I can’t imagine a Standard format where Nissa isn’t good. Not only is she powerful in a vacuum, but she’s powerful in a way that’s easy to understand in the context of the cards that have dominated Standard in recent months.
When looking at her abilities, Nissa, Vital Force is a little bit like Den Protector, a little bit like Tireless Tracker, and a little bit like Nissa, Worldwaker—a powerhouse in her day.
She can deal damage out of nowhere, she can protect herself with a plus ability (!), and she can ultimate the turn after she comes out. It also helps that green is likely to remain incredibly strong in Standard, even after Collected Company rotates out.
At five mana, Nissa, Vital Force is probably not a four-of in any one deck. I expect her to see a lot of play regardless, though, and her price should remain fairly high. I’d put her a touch under Gideon, Ally of Zendikar in terms of projected impact, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she hits $40 at some point before bouncing around between $10 and $25 for the rest of her time in Standard.
The wild card here is Chandra, of course. If she sticks it out a $60 and Kaladesh has a few other breakout stars (it will), Nissa might end up being both very good and reasonably inexpensive. Even still, I’d rather buy a playset of Nissa at her current price than Chandra at hers. Chandra is probably better, but Nissa is more likely to retain the bulk of her preorder price. Heck, if Chandra weren’t in the same set, I’d expect Nissa to be a $30-$40 card already.
Saheeli Rai – $24.99
These are the three-mana planeswalkers that have been legal in a Standard format: Ajani, Caller of the Pride (very good); Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver (very good); Domri Rade (very good); Jace Beleren (very good); Liliana of the Veil (very good); Liliana, the Last Hope (very good); and Nissa, Voice of Zendikar (very good). If Saheli Rai doesn’t do anything in Standard, she will be the first three-mana planeswalker to flop—ever.
Unfortunately, I keep looking at the card and wondering how she makes an impact. Could she be good in control mirrors where you can sit around and filter your draws with Saheeli Rai’s scry 1 and hope to set up some key turns with her -2 ability? Maybe her place is as a finisher in some sort of U/R Aggro deck that really wants to copy creatures and swing with them? I’ve heard some talk of Saheeli Rai in Legacy or Vintage, but I just don’t see it. Just because she shares a mana cost with Dack Fayden doesn’t mean she’s anywhere near as powerful as he is.
Ultimately, situational cards like Saheeli Rai don’t end up being worth all that much, especially if they’re in large fall sets. Unless we’re all missing some major point of interaction, or three mana is just too good to pass up, Saheeli Rai’s realistic upside is as an enabler or finisher in a single good deck. That’s an $8-$12 card with an outside shot at seeing a Pro Tour related spike before dropping off to that level. At $25, I’m underwhelmed.
Verdurous Gearhulk– $14.99
People seem intent on comparing Verdurous Gearhulk to Wolfir Silverheart, but they’re very different cards. Wolfir Silverheart could only power up exactly one other creature, it didn’t have trample, it wasn’t an artifact in an artifact block, and its bonus went away once you killed it.
At worst, Verdurous Gearhulk is an 8/8 trampler for five mana. At best, you’re throwing those counters down on a bunch of different creatures (small fliers?) and diversifying your threats. Oh—and this card is pretty sick with an Eldrazi Displacer on the battlefield. (True of so many cards in this set—I’d pick up a set of those ASAP.)
Does that mean that Verdurous Gearhulk is a slam-dunk Standard staple? I’m skeptical. Big green monsters have a very poor track record in competitive Constructed, and even though this one feels pushed beyond the limit, I’m not sure it will end up affecting the battlefield enough to show up in more than a handful of fringe decks. At $15, this is a fairly risky buy-In, because you’re basically betting on this finally being the time WotC pushed us to play with big green creatures that don’t do all that much. It’s possible, but I’m waiting to see how the format develops before I drop my cash down.
Aetherworks Marvel – $7.99
One of my regular readers, Bjorn Schultz, pre-emptively wrote to me about this card in anticipation of my set review. In his words:
You can fairly reliably activate Aetherworks Marvel on turn 4 when you cast it, just based on the cards spoiled so far. Woodweaver’s Puzzleknot alone enables this.
In addition, you get to cast the card, not put it onto the battlefield, meaning you get the Eldrazi triggers, This means casting a turn 4 Ulamog in Standard, and casting a turn 3/4 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn; Karn; Ugin; Nicol Bolas; Ulamog; or Omniscience in Modern.
The upside on Aetherworks Marvel is real. With enablers, you can get this going immediately. Without them, it creates a sort of inevitability. It works well with Clues, Eldrazi Scions, Krark-Clan Ironworks, and Greater Gargadon. It has potential in Standard and Modern.
The problem, as with many of these cards, is that on its face it’s a do-nothing that requires a lot of support. Not only do you have to generate that Energy somehow, but you have to find a way to get something gigantic on top of your library (or spin the wheel and hope).
So is Aetherworks Marvel a new multi-format staple, or is it just a casual tease? The community seems split right now, and I can’t see enough evidence to definitively put me in either camp. I think the downside here is a $3-$4 mythic with some long-term potential. The upside is a $20+ multi-format staple. Is that worth buying at $8? I’m not going to bite, but if you think you have the secret ingredient to make the card work, go for it. It’s high risk/high reward for sure.
Rashmi, Eternities Crafter – $7.99
I want to live in a world where Rashmi, Eternities Crafter is good. I’m a Simic mage at heart, and Rashmi is the sort of creature I love building around. Foils are going to be jaw-droppingly gorgeous, too.
The problem is that Rashmi is a four-drop 2/3 that requires two colors of mana to play and it does nothing when it enters the battlefield. Yes, there will be games when you can stick Rashmi and go to value town, but is this a powerful and reliable enough strategy for any Constructed format? I just don’t see it. Rashmi will be a popular Commander card, but I expect her to be a bust in Constructed. Future $3 mythic.
Cataclysmic Gearhulk – $7.99
Cataclysmic Gearhulk – 3WW
Artifact Creature – Construct
Vigilance
When Cataclysmic Gearhulk enters the battlefield, each player chooses from among the non-land permanents he or she controls an artifact, a creature, an enchantment, and a planeswalker, then sacrifices the rest.
4/5
First, let’s dispel some myths: Cataclysmic Gearhulk is not Tragic Arrogance. Tragic Arrogance let you choose both sides of the wipe—you got to pick which permanents you got to keep, and also which permanents your opponent got to keep. Cataclysmic Gearhulk allows your opponent to choose on their end, so it’s never killing what you want it to kill.
Yes, there will be some absurd games where you curve Gideon into this and you’ll be unable to lose. I tend to be skeptical of “Magical Christmas Land” cards, though, which means that we have to evaluate Cataclysmic Gearhulk in its suboptimal situations as well. In other words, how good is this card when it’s not very good?
Interestingly enough, this is where Cataclysmic Gearhulk starts to look really darned good. A 4/5 with vigilance for five isn’t great, but it’s not a straight-up blank, either. How do we feel about a card that wins the game 20% of the time, gives you some card advantage 50% of the time, and is just a vanilla 4/5 vigilance for five the final 30% of the time? That sounds pretty good, actually, and it’s why I think Cataclysmic Gearhulk might be a sneaky great card. It’s still a risky buy at $8, but there’s $20-$25 upside here—I don’t think you have to warp your deck around Cataclysmic Gearhulk to make it worth running, so several different top-tier decks might decide to run it. It’s a solid buy if you’re a believer.
Noxious Gearhulk – $5.99
Noxious Gearhulk isn’t overpowered—six mana is about right for what you get—but it still seems destined to become a format staple. Its enter-the-battlefield ability is similar to the –X on Sorin, Grim Nemesis, though it’s less conditional (better against large creatures) and more useful when you’re behind on the battlefield. Sorin is better when you can keep him around, but the Gearhulk should do a fine job of closing out any game where you’re already ahead.
Noxious Gearhulk is also able to go into many more decks than Sorin, Grim Nemesis, and its popularity will probably be dependent on how many large creatures are running around in Standard. If tokens or wide aggro strategies end up dominating, Noxious Gearhulk will likely be relegated to sideboard duty. If the other Gearhulks live up to their potential, however, Noxious Gearhulk could become one of Standard’s most important cards.
I kind of like preordering Noxious Gearhulk at $6. Its floor and ceiling are both fairly high, so you’re unlikely to lose much and the gains could be significant. I’m in for a few of these at current retail.
Torrential Gearhulk – $5.99
I’ve been on Team Goblin Dark-Dwellers for months now, and that card has always felt like it was about one good spell away from dominating Standard. Well, red should be better now, and Torrential Gearhulk should play pretty well in some sort of U/R deck with a bunch of spells and ways to cheat them back.
The problem is that Torrential Gearhulk only works with instants, so your deck had better have a bunch of them if before you decide to play this. I expect Torrential Gearhulk to see play, but I can’t imagine it ends up in more than one deck. Because of that, the absolute top end of its upside is probably $10. I can’t recommend speculating on this for $6, but buying personal copies is totally fine. The card is good.
Skysovereign, Consul Flagship – $5.99
Vehicles are proving hard to evaluate. Will Crew 3 be easy to achieve, or will this sit on the battlefield doing nothing half the time? The difference is pretty big—either this card is a cheaper, colorless Inferno Titan (that can’t hit players and doesn’t have Firebreathing), or it’s a wacky casual dud.
At $6, Skysovereign is one of the better gambles in Kaladesh. The downside is that the card is a silly bulk mythic, but the upside is huge. This is a card that can theoretically go in any deck, doesn’t need anything to combine with except a creature or two, and provides a repeatable source of evasive damage and removal. If you like preordering mythics, consider grabbing a set of these.
Angel of Invention – $4.99
I don’t think Angel of Invention lines up well with the format right now, but $5 still seems a little low for a card that might make a real impact. Everyone was ready to anoint Gisela, the Broken Blade the best card in Eldritch Moon, but Angel of Invention might actually be better. For one extra mana, you get an (arguable) upgrade from first strike to vigilance, a Glorious Anthem for all your other creatures, and the choice of trading +2/+2 for a pair of 1/1 Servos. Don’t forget: Gideon, Ally of Zendikar is still going to be Standard-legal and very, very good.
So why isn’t Angel of Invention pre-selling for more? Well, everyone got burned on Gisela, whose price was inflated thanks to Avacyn, whose price was low thanks to a bevy of earlier disappointing Angels. That’s not the only issue here, though. I’m still not sure there’s a deck that wants Angel of Invention instead of Avacyn, Angel of Hope, and the latter is still Standard-legal. A tokens deck might want two or three of these on the top of its curve, but beyond that I think we may have to wait a few months for Angel of Invention to find a home. I’m holding off for now and grabbing a set if it drops to bulk over the winter.
Demon of Dark Schemes – $4.99
Demon of Dark Schemes is going to be worse than Massacre Wurm most of the time, but battlefield sweepers are worse now than they were back in Scars block. At some point, you just have to take what you can get.
Will a deck exist that can 1) cast this reliably at triple-black, and 2) want a six-drop that Infests the battlefield? Maybe, but I can’t imagine this is more than a sideboard or fringe player in a single brew. As such, $5 is probably its best case long-term price. I’m staying away.
Metallurgic Summonings – $3.99
Five mana do-nothing enchantments tend to hit bulk pretty fast, but Metallurgic Summonings is an amazing mirror breaker in control. If you can take a turn off to play this and you expect the game to go very long, Metallurgic Summonings will propel you to victory…eventually.
Unless Standard devolves into the grindiest metagame imaginable—I doubt it—Metallurgic Summonings will probably be relegated to sideboard duty or the occasional main deck two-of. I expect the card to hit bulk, though it might have occasional gains to $4 or $5 depending on how Standard develops.
This Week’s Trends
Thanks to Kaladesh, there wasn’t a lot of movement in Standard last week. Grim Flayer spiked a bit last weekend and has started to dip again.
Collective Brutality spiked a bit last weekend and has continued to rise. Both Eldrazi Displacer and Lupine Prototype are on the cusp of potential spikes thanks to possible Kaladesh interactions, but neither has moved more than a couple of cents yet.
Plenty of Standard cards are dropping in price, though. All the rotating staples continue to fall, including Modern stalwarts Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy and Collected Company. Since there doesn’t appear to be any counter-rotational demand developing, at this point I’d hold off buying these for another month or two.
Otherwise, I think people are just holding off on their Standard purchases until preview season is over and they have a better sense of what they need to buy. If you know what you’re going to want, get it now—prices will rebound about a week after the Kaladesh prerelease. Otherwise, I’m holding off buying or selling anything in Standard right now.
In Modern, Noble Hierarch, Through the Breach, and Engineered Explosives have continued to rise in price. Many of the other format staples—cards like Cavern of Souls, Damnation, Misty Rainforest, and Tarmogoyf—have ticked up a little as well. This is likely a result of all the high-profile Modern matches we’ve seen on stream lately, and I’m not sure how long it will continue. I’m selling these into hype if I don’t need them right now.
Last, it looks like Energy is going to be an important resource to keep track of in both Limited and Constructed once Kaladesh is released. While I have no doubt that the token slot in Kaladesh will contain Energy (much like there were poison counters back in Scars block), I wouldn’t be surprised if the Energy cards from the Pokémon TCG catch on as popular substitutes. I bought a stack of foil Lightning Energy cards for my own personal use, and I wouldn’t be surprised if other people down at my LGS decide they want in on that action once they see how cool it looks. Will Kaladesh‘s energy be enough to drive up the price of an unrelated card from an unassociated game? I actually think it might. Get your foil Energy now, folks. You’ll want it in a couple of weeks.
Deals of the Week
There are more than 6,000 MP foils on sale this week, which is great for anyone who wants to fuel their addiction to shiny things without breaking the bank. MP foils can be a great buy because many aren’t downgraded for the normal reasons – moderate corner wear, border wear, a binder ding, etc. With foils, oftentimes the MP downgrade comes from cloudiness – that slightly murky sheen that sometimes shows up to ruin your day. If you don’t mind a little clouding, MP foils are a wonderful way to make your favorite Legacy or Commander deck a little shinier at a deep discount.
Comments from Last Week
Now that Kaladesh spoilers have started, do you think there’s still room for the reprinted Conspiracy: Take The Crown spoilers to drop, or should we be picking them up now?
– Charlie Prugh
Picking them up now is fine, Charlie. The good rares and mythics in Conspiracy: Take the Crown have dropped since the preorder period, but they’ve been fairly stable since the end of August and there’s some sign of an uptick as people have already moved away from drafting the format. If Conspiracy packs do end up being readily available for the next eighteen months, the prices might keep slowly dropping over time. If not—and I’ve started to hear rumblings on Twitter that the set may be more limited than previously thought—then now is the perfect time to buy in. If any store owners or distributors want to chime in with their first-hand knowledge in the comments, please do.
Regardless, local trade binders are somewhat flush with these cards right now, especially those belonging to casual players who just wanted the draft experience. If you can trade Commander stuff for Inquisitions of Kozilek and Berserks at current retail, you should.
Short of burning it for warmth during the upcoming winter months, is there any hope in Theros block sealed product recouping its value?
– Mike Brum
It depends on the set, Mike. Theros block was far from a beloved Draft format, so there isn’t much luck there. It was also light on the sort of top-tier commons and uncommons that can drive sealed box prices through the roof. I like Theros itself, though—it has Thoughtseize; Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx; and Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver. I’m also fairly high on the mono-colored Gods as long-term casual assets. Journey into Nyx is also decent—it was relatively under-opened and it has the best multi-colored Gods, a great casual planeswalker, and Eidolon of the Great Revel. There will be a return to Theros at some point, and people will want that product.
I don’t have high hopes for your Born of the Gods packs, though. At least Forgestoker Dragon will appreciate being used as kindling.
