Hello everyone, and welcome back to Insider Trading! It’s been a few weeks since I wrote my last article, and the absence was due to my heavy work schedule. For the time being, I’m going to be writing Insider Trading as a feature article every few weeks. You’ll see another edition of Insider Trading to discuss the value of Alara Reborn, in just two weeks. Fortunately, life at StarCityGames.com is hectic (just check our June schedule – $5k Atlanta, $10K Boston, and $5 Minneapolis, back-to-back-to-back), but unfortunately that cuts into the amount of writing time I have.
At StarCityGames.com, we treat the release of each new Duel Deck as a full set release – we have preorders to ship for both sealed product and singles. Divine vs. Demonic was no exception – if you hadn’t heard, the product has already sold out at the distributor level, before official release! Based on rate of sales, Divine vs. Demonic will be our best-selling Duel Deck so far, once all is said and done – but are Duel Decks worth your $19.99, in general?
No suspense here – the answer is yes. Let’s take out the middling cards, and take a look at the highlights of these decks, and see what their lowest, Near-Mint non-Duel Deck price is!
Akroma, Angel of Wrath (Alternate Art, Foil): $10
Cruel Edict: $1
Dark Ritual (x2): $1 ($2)
Demonic Tutor (Alternate Art): $10
Faith’s Fetters (x2, Alternate Art): $0.25 ($0.50)
Lord of the Pit (Alternate Art, Foil): $1
Reya Dawnbringer: $3
Serra Angel: $2
Stinkweed Imp (Alternate Art): $0.25
Total: $29.75
Just on these cards alone, the package is worth more than the $19.99 price tag – and that’s without getting into the less-impressive rares (Luminous Angel, Promise of Power, etc), or other cards in the decks. Moreover though, these decks are designed really well – they play fantastically off each other (all three have), and so you’re at a win-win scenario with Duel Decks – you get your money’s worth of singles, plus you get two Preconstructed decks that fit well together.
Now, this may sound like I’m shilling here, but I’m not – this is simply giving Wizards credit where credit is due. These decks have been released, have shown increasing popularity with each release, and have not disappointed as a final product. Is Divine/Demonic the best of the three Duel Deck releases so far? My opinion is no – that honor goes, so far, to Jace vs. Chandra (Burn vs. Counterbounce is a much more elegant matchup than fatties and removal versus other fatties and removal, in my opinion). However, this line of products, in general, is Wizards top-produced Magic product right now. Obvious care, thought, and love was put into these decks, from people inside Wizards who were once players. This isn’t a simple case of “Okay, what can we throw in this deck to make it sell” – it’s a case of “what cards fit this decks that I, as a player, would think was really cool?” Hence, Lord of the Pit – not the most powerful of Black creatures, but one that many, many players associate with as Black’s marquee creature – a huge fatty that has a definite Black flavor of sacrifice and, well, evil.
With some large number of these decks out there (Tens of thousands? Hundreds of thousands?), will the value of the above cards be affected?
First: The Revised Demonic Tutor will likely come down a little in price. There is now a Black-bordered version (with great artwork) alternately available. I expect the 3rd Demonic to come down the $5-$7.50 price (depending on condition).
Second: I think Akroma will stay steady in price. There are many people who do not like playing with foil cards, or who do not prefer the “new” style of artwork on Akroma. There are a lot of people who do like the new Akroma artwork, but the two factors (dislike of artwork, dislike of foils) should keep the “classic” Akroma (from Legions and Time Spiral) at the $8-$10 range.
Third: As Legacy grows in popularity, the price of Legacy staples will continue to skyrocket. We’re already seeing this happen with Dual Lands; but lower-end staples (such as Dark Ritual) are being bought out and are starting to see movement in price. The 5th Edition picture of Dark Ritual (used in this box set) is one of the harder-to-find versions of the card – and the only version printed so far in Black Border. This should make this version of Ritual more expensive than other previously-printed versions.
Those are the three observations of note about changing card values. But what could Wizards have done to make these Duel Decks even better? I made some observations and guesses a few months ago, and I still stand by some of them:
1) I am really beginning to hate the reserve list, because Radiant, Archangel would have been a perfect inclusion in the Divine deck. Radiant would work well within the confines of the deck, and is another “name” Angel to go alongside Akroma and Reya Dawnbringer. Unfortunately, the reserve list wins out, and so we didn’t get to see Radiant in this deck.
2) Could there have been more of a cycling theme in the White deck? There’s already Angelsong and Secluded Steppe, but what of Akroma’s Vengeance, Akroma’s Blessing, Radiant’s Judgment, and Decree of Justice? My guess is that these cards were internally playtested by Wizards, and were rejected for various reasons – Akroma’s Vengeance and Radiant’s Judgment likely because of the ease they give in killing the Black creatures, Akroma’s Blessing because of the potential for one-sided blowouts, and Decree of Justice, likely, because of complexity. Of these, I would most liked to have seen Decree of Justice, because it’s a great foil to Barter in Blood, or other Black sacrifice-a-creature spells.
3) Speaking of which, I was very happy to see Demonic Tutor in the deck (which I had predicted months before), but the shoo-in of Diabolic Edict, which I would have bet was an auto-include, was but a pipe dream. Cruel Edict? That’s a poor substitute for Diabolic Edict, which would have been great with alternate-art (a much better choice than Stinkweed Imp). Why would Diabolic Edict get the shaft? The shift from Sorcery to Instant speed doesn’t seem like that much of a boost to the Black deck, and Diabolic Edict would have been a big draw to this set. Moreover, it fits the theme more than Cruel Edict! I would love to hear an explanation from someone at Wizards about this particular choice!
4) I had mentioned in my initial article that the inclusion of Akroma in the Duel Deck would mean an unlikely inclusion of Akroma in 11th Edition (now M10). I do feel that there has been a shift in thoughts about reprints at Wizards recently, as evidenced by the Planeswalkers, and it is a simple yet profound shift; if there is a popular card, and it has a high value, Wizards is much more willing to reprint it, and quickly. Jace has gotten three printings now (Lorwyn, Jace vs. Chandra, and as a promo for the Agents of Artifice Novel). Chandra is up to two, Garruk is up to two (from the Duels of the Planeswalker video game), and all five are all-but-confirmed to be in M10. Reya, a draw in 10th Edition, is in this box set.
So what does this mean? It means that Wizards is both recognizing that their strong cards hold value across multiple, concurrent releases, and that doing so keeps those same cards from getting to the Mutavault/Bitterblossom/Tarmogoyf level of price. This is especially important for Planeswalkers, which are relegated to the status of Mythics, for as long as Mythics are around.
I have no clue what the next duel deck might be, but given the hype around the character, I would think that a Nicol Bolas vs. “X” duel deck might be in the works. Nicol Bolas is immensely popular, has become the focus of an entire block’s advertising campaign (Nicol Bolas vs. The Planeswalkers? Nicol Bolas vs. the Multiverse? Dominaria vs. Nicol Bolas?), and you have a lot of built-in synergy with such a deck. Not only do you get to include the Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker card, but you also get Nicol Bolas proper, both of which would be automatic draws for the deck. This would also be a departure from the mono-colored vs. mono-colored theme, allowing for a little more color-hosing, some gold card reprints, and a little non-basic-land love beyond cycling lands and Terrain Generator.
That’s all for this week’s Insider Trading! As I mentioned previously, my next column will be in two weeks from today, when I discuss the Financial Value of Alara Reborn (and if the rumors about the return of Meddling Mage are true, I’ll have a whole section devoted to what it means for such a high-dollar card to be included as a reprint in a non-base set). Future topics will be about the rise of Legacy, M10, the From the Vault: Exiled set, and why From the Vault: Vaults was both a great April Fool’s joke, and a tease of a great product, both at the same time.
See you in 14 days!
Ben